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Universiteit Utrecht
Copernicus Institute
Coping with uncertainty in climate change adaptation
merging top down and bottom up approaches
Dr. Jeroen P. van der Sluijs
Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and InnovationUtrecht University
COP 15 side event “Adaptive management – merging top down and bottom up”Holland Climate House, Bella Center, Copenhagen, 10 December 2009
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
Statistical uncertainty
PROBLEM:Policy makersseem to expectthat scientistscan calculate suchfrequencies for2050, 2100, etc.
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
(Giorgi 2005)
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
3 framings of uncertainty (Van der Sluijs, 2006)
'deficit view'• Uncertainty is provisional• Reduce uncertainty, make ever more complex models• Tools: quantification, Monte Carlo, Bayesian belief networks
'evidence evaluation view'• Comparative evaluations of research results• Tools: Scientific consensus building; multi disciplinary expert panels• focus on robust findings
'complex systems view'• Uncertainty is intrinsic to complex systems: permanent• Uncertainty can be result of new ways of knowledge production• Acknowledge that not all uncertainties can be quantified• Openly deal with deeper dimensions of uncertainty • Tools: Knowledge Quality Assessment
“speaking truth to power” vs “working deliberatively within imperfections”
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
• "We cannot be certain that this can be achieved easily and we do know it will take time. Since a fundamentally chaotic climate system is predictable only to a certain degree, our research achievements will always remain uncertain. Exploring the significance and characteristics of this uncertainty is a fundamental challenge to the scientific community." (Bolin, 1994)
Former chairman IPCC on objective to reduce climate uncertainties:
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
KNMI 2006
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Bron: Stern Review
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NL Later: Sealevel rise till 2100
35-85 cm in 2100
Worst case:1,5 m/eeuw
Deltacommissie65-130 cm
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Scenarios can be wrong
Statististical uncertainty precipitation According to climateprediction.net versus range KNMI scenarios
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
-50 -25 0 25 50 75 100
Precipitation change (%)
Pro
ba
bili
ty
CP.netGG+WW+
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
-100 -75 -50 -25 0 25 50
Precipitation change (%)
Pro
ba
bili
ty
CP.net
G
G+
W
W+
Winter Summer
(Dessai & Van der Sluijs, 2007)
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
Variability in a changing climate: Small shift in mean = big change in frequency of extremes
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
Adaptation under what uncertainty?Planned adaptation• to single scenario of anticipated climate impacts
no uncertainty• to single scenario of anticipated climate impacts + to
variabilitystatistical uncertainty (without epistemic unc.)
• to range of scenario’s of anticipated climate impacts (KNMI 2006 scenario’s)scenario uncertainty
• to range of scenario’s of anticipated climate impacts + imaginable climate surprises (MNP Nederland Later)scenario uncertainty + recognized ignorance
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
Decision-making frameworks
• Top down approaches– Prevention Principle– IPCC approach– Risk approaches
• Bottom up approaches– Precautionary Principle– Engineering safety margin– Anticipating design– Resilience– Adaptive management– Human development
approaches• Mixed approaches
– Adaptation Policy Framework– Robust decision making
(figure: Dessai and Hulme 2004,list: Dessai and Van der Sluijs, 2007)
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
Risk approach (UK-CIP)Eight stages decision framework:1. Identify problem and objectives2. Establish decision-making criteria3. Assess risk4. Identify options5. Appraise options6. Make decision7. Implement decision8. Monitor, evaluate and review.
Flexible characteristics:- cricular- Feedback and iteration- Stages 3, 4 and 5 are tiered. (identify, screen, prioritise and
evaluate before more detailed risk assessments and options appraisals are required.)
“The risk assessment endpoints should help the decision-maker define levels of risk (probabilities and consequences or impacts) that are acceptable, tolerable or unacceptable”
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
No regrets
• Favour adaptation strategies which will yield benefits (for other, less uncertain, policy concerns) regardless of whether or not climate impacts will occur.
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
“Flexible design”Anticipating imaginable surprises
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
Problem: Dimensioning of water supply system
Additional water required (Ml/d) to maintain levels of service in 2030 under different demand scenarios as a function of regional climate response uncertainty
Robustness exploration (Dessai, 2005)
25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50
-50
-25
0
25
50
Summer precipitation change (%)
Climate impacts uncertainty (%)
AWS
-75--50 -50--25 -25-0 0-25 25-50 50-75 75-100
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
Resilience
• If uncertainties about climate change are large, one can still know how the resilience of social-ecological systems can be enhanced
• Resilience is the capacity of a system to tolerate disturbance without collapsing into a qualitatively different, usually undesired, state
www.resalliance.orgWardekker e.a. 2010 doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2009.11.005
Principles:
•Homeostasis
•Omnivory
•High flux
•Flatness
•Buffering
•Redundancy
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
Wild Cards / Surprise scenarios• not sufficientely known risks /
opportunities• undermine current trends• create new futures• influence our thinking about past &
future• give rise to new concepts / new
perceptionswww.steinmuller.de/media/pdf/WC_GFF.pdf
Examples for climate adaptation:- Thermo Haline Circulation shut down- Extreme low river run-off- Long heatwaves and droughts- Extreme storms- Invasive species
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
three types of wild cards(1) extreme forms of expected trends, (2) opposites of expected trends(3) completely new issues (prepared for the
wrong impact)Most options remain beneficial under type-1
wildcards. Under type-2 wildcards, options that enhance
flexibility and responsiveness remain beneficial
Few options protect against type-3 wildcards
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
decision making under uncertainty frameworks
Statistical uncertainty
Scenario uncertainty
Recognized ignorance
& surprises
IPCC approach + ++ --
Risk approaches ++ + --
Engineering safety margin ++ -
Anticipating design ++ + +
Resilience + ++
Adaptive management ++ - --
Prevention Principle ++ --
Precautionary Principle + ++ ++
Human development approaches + +
Adaptation Policy Framework + + +
Robust decision making + ++ +
Synthesis
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
Uncertainty assessment methods Statistical uncertainty
Scenario uncertainty
Recognized ignorance &
surprises
Scenario analysis ("surprise-free") ++ -
Expert elicitation + + +
Sensitivity analysis +
Monte Carlo ++ - -
Probabilistic multi model ensemble ++ +
Bayesian methods ++ -
NUSAP / Pedigree analysis + + ++
Fuzzy sets / imprecise probabilities + +
Stakeholder involvement + +
Quality Assurance / Quality Checklists + + ++
Extended peer review (review by stakeholders) + ++
Wild cards / surprise scenarios - + ++
Synthesis
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
Synthesis
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Copernicus Institute
Universiteit Utrecht
Concluding remarks• No ‘silver bullet’ for adaptation under
uncertainty• Very context dependent• Assess relative importance of:
– Statistical uncertainty: predict-then-act– Scenario uncertainty: robustness– Ignorance: resilience & flexibility
• Synthesis matrix provides preliminary guidance for analysts
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Download 2007 rapport:www.nusap.net/adaptation
Case studies 2008-2009:- Delta committee
(water safety)- Nature / Waddensea- Health impacts
Team- Arjan Wardekker MSc- Arie de Jong MSc- Petra Westerlaan- Dr Pita Verweij- Dr. Jeroen van der Sluijs