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UNCLASSIFIED Navy AviationBuilding The Future Fleet
RDML Mike Manazir (N880)Head, Strike Aviation Programs
Professional Aerospace Maintenance Symposium29 June 2011
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UNCLASSIFIED
Outline
• 30 Year Aviation Plan• Fiscal Realities• POM 13 Outlook, Program Updates
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UNCLASSIFIED
30 Year Aviation Plan
• 2nd submission of a long-range, fixed-wing aviation procurement plan Guided by the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) Pl b itt d tl ith N ’ FY12 b d t t C• Plan submitted concurrently with Navy’s FY12 budget to Congress
• Shaped by four strategic priorities: Prevailing in today’s wars
Preventing and deterring conflict Preventing and deterring conflict
Preparing to defeat adversaries and succeed in a wide range of contingencies
Preserving and enhancing the all-volunteer force
• The Department’s future fixed-wing aviation force must be able to carry out orThe Department s future fixed wing aviation force must be able to carry out or contribute to the following six key joint missions: Defend the United States and support civil authorities at home
Conduct counterinsurgency, stability, and counterterrorism operations
Build the capacity of partner states
Deter and defeat aggression in anti-access environments
Prevent the proliferation of and counter weapons of mass destruction
Operate effectively in cyberspace
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Operate effectively in cyberspace.
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UNCLASSIFIED
30 Year Aviation PlanUNCLASSIFIED
30 YEAR AVIATION PLAN•Forecast of USN, USMC and USAF aircraft through year 2041•Included RDT&E and APN1-4 funding projections•Plan lays out replacement T/M/S within 30-yr window•Survivable & Relevant: Capabilities, Capacity, Programming
F d P C F-18E/F replacementC-2A replacementE-2D replacementT-45C replacementP-8A replacementBAMS replacement
- Forward Presence Construct- Force Structure Transition•Cost Risk Summary- Affordability based on sustaining
FY16 f di l l th h 2041
UNCLASSIFIED
TACAIR RoadmapUNCLASSIFIED
Training RoadmapUNCLASSIFIED
Maritime RoadmapUNCLASSIFIED
Helicopter RoadmapUNCLASSIFIED
Transport RoadmapUNCLASSIFIED
USMC Aviation Transition
Today Tomorrow
MH-60R/S replacementMQ-8B replacementMH-53 replacement
FY16 funding levels through 2041
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F/A-18A-D
Increasingly capable, NettedForce
CapabilitiesPrecision StrikeStealthAnti-Air WarfareElectronic AttackSuppression/Destruction
of Enemy Air DefensesClose Air SupportISRAir RefuelingReliabilitySupportabilityMaintainability
EA-6BF/A-18 E/F
& EA-18G
JSF
E-2C E-2D
C-2AC-XX
N-UCAS
UCLASS
Prog
ram
s tr
ansf
erre
d
to
N2/
N6
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CapabilitiesImproved flight performance.Digital cockpits.Modernized Avionics.Reliable platforms.Improved curriculum.Better prepares students for tomorrow’s aircraft.
TH-57B/C
T-34C
T-6A/B
TC-12B/T-44A
T-39N/G T-2C
TH-57D
T-44 Replacement
T-45C Sustainment
Advanced simulation reduces risk, cost.
Smaller, More Capable
ForcePrimary training
21
T-45A/C
T-6A/B
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CapabilitiesPersistent ASWISRASuW
Persistent ISRStrike Support Tactical ESM
Information OpsMulti-INT ISRStrike Targeting
P-8A
P-3C
VPU Smaller, Netted Force
EP-3
BAMS
P-8A
Prog
ram
str
ansf
erre
dto
N2/
N6
BAMS
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CapabilitiesAnti-Surface Warfare (ASuW)ISRAnti-Submarine Warfare (ASW)
Combat SARMine Counter-measures Logistics
MH-60S
SH-60B
CH-46DCH-46D
Smaller, More Capable
Force
HH-1NMH-60R
MH-53ESH-60F
HH-60H
UH-3H
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C-20G
Capabilities
C-40As and C-130ssustain the fleet with
flexible, time sensitive logistics support to
Navy ComponentCommanders
C-40A: Twice the cargo Twice the range
Twice the availabilityof the C-9B/DC-9
C-40A
C-9B/DC-9
C-130J
C-130T
Smaller, More Capable
ForceC-40A
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TodayKC-130T/J
CH-46E
UH-1NAH-1W
ISR ServicesSHADOW
CH-53ECH-53D
F/A-18AV-8BEA-6BVH-3
VH-60
TomorrowKC-130J
MV-22
UH-1YAH-1Z
STUASGroup-4
CH-53K
F-35B JSF
VXXTBD
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UNCLASSIFIED
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UNCLASSIFIED
30 Year Aviation Plan Way Ahead
• Strategy needs to be developed for future submissions Current discussion is not affordable given plan constraints
Planning for new platform developments needs to start now to replace aging inventoryo Investment in an advanced engine program (VCAT/ADVENT)
o Investment in Adaptive structures/A2AD enablers
o Investment in the Army’s Future Vertical Lift Demonstrator program
Reduced Naval Aviation TOA
• Proposed plan demonstrates affordability and maintains inventory Aligns with previous years plan
Mitigates SLEP cost for Super Hornets
• Many unknowns still exist that will impact long range plan JSF Next Generation Jammer
UCLASS
Next Generation Air Dominance
Follow on A/A and A/G Weapons
NETWORKS/Tactical Data Links
FVTL
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UNCLASSIFIED
Future Carrier Air Wing
NOTIONAL CVW OF THE FUTURE COMPRISED OF:UCLASS NGAD UNMANNED INTEGRATION• UCLASS…NGAD – UNMANNED INTEGRATION
• 44 STRIKE FIGHTER (F/A-18, JSF) AIRCRAFT TACAIR Integration: MOU signed 14 Mar 2011, Delta +5 (highest integration to date)
• 5 EA-18G AIRBORNE ELECTRONIC ATTACK (AEA) AIRCRAFT• 5 E-2D ADVANCED HAWKEYE AIRCRAFT• 19 MH-60R/S HELOS - 11 ON THE CARRIER / 8 DISPERSED THROUGH THE CARRIER STRIKE GROUP (CSG)• 2 CARRIER ONBOARD DELIVERY (COD) AIRCRAFT AUGMENT THE ENTIRE CSG
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Carrier Air Wing Evolution
CVWToday
CVW2020
CVW2025-2030y
F/A-18E x 12
F/A-18F x 12
F/A-18E x 12
F/A-18F x 12
2025 2030UCLASS
F-35C
F/A-18C x 10
F/A-18C x 10
F-35C x 10
F-35C x 10
F-35C
F-35C
EA-6B x 4
E-2C x 4
EA-18G x 5
E-2D x 5
C 2 ( l) 2
EA-18G
E-2D
C-2 x 2
SH-60F/H x 7
C-2 (repl) x 2
SH-60S/R x 19
UCLASS
C-2 (repl)
SH-60S/R x 19
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UCLASSNGAD development
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UNCLASSIFIED
Outline
• 30 Year Aviation Plan• Fiscal Realities• POM 13 Outlook, Program Updates
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UNCLASSIFIED
10-Year Cyclical DoD Outlays
600
650
Vietnam GWOT FY13 FY17
400
450
500
550 VietnamGulf War I
GWOT
B
~$425B
FY13 FY17
250
300
350
400~ 10 Years
FY08
$B
POM-13
FYDP
100
150
200Outlay*
Mean Outlay
0
50
FY68
FY72
FY76
FY80
FY84
FY88
FY92
FY96
FY00
FY04
FY08
FY12
FY16
Underlying*Source: CSBA (includes supplemental
requests for GWOT operations)
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DOD CYCLES MAY, BUT ARE NOT LIKELY TO, SUPPORT NAVY’S FY17 TOPLINE
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UNCLASSIFIED
Future OCO Uncertainty
CY10$B
$138 $136 11.48 9
Loss of Purchasing Power
OCO Requested
CY10$B
$140$138
$120 $119 $119
$128$129
8.9
Future OCO Unknown
$116$119 $119
Baseline Funding$98
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UNCLASSIFIED
DoN Program Movement, PB12 to POM-13
$2,000
TY$M
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$1 000
-$500
$0APN
MCN MPN
OMN OPN
PANMC R&D
SCN WPN
-$2,000
-$1,500
-$1,000
$6 000$8,000
$10,000TY$M
PB11 to PB12
-$4,000-$2,000
$0$2,000$4,000$6,000
APN
MCNMPN
OMN
OPN
R&DPANMC
SCNWPN
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Source: PBIS April 22, 2011 N8F Controls vs. PB12
-$8,000-$6,000$ ,
APN to R&D largely due to JSF
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UNCLASSIFIED
Considerations Going Forward
• Navy’s force structure today is the minimum required to meet current military strategy Survive defend the status quo Survive – defend the status quo
• In our currently funded strike fighter recapitalization path we will be forced to accept risk in presence and/or capacity Synergy between CNAF/HQMC/COMFRC/OPNAV/NAVAIR is critical to strike fighter inventory
management strategy
Adherence to Service Life Management Plan is essential
• What does the future of Naval Aviation look like? I t t U d A i l V hi l i t N l A i ti Integrate Unmanned Aerial Vehicles into Naval Aviation
It’s time to start new programs like; NGAD, Future Vertical Lift (FVL), C-2 Replacement, NGM
Currently only scheduled to procure F-35, MV-22, H-1 and CH-53K in FY17 and out
• NUFEA• NUFEA TransCom take-over of all commercial variant aircraft
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UNCLASSIFIED
Outline
• 30 Year Aviation Plan• Fiscal Challenges• POM 13 Outlook, Program Updates
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UNCLASSIFIED
POM-13 Changing Environment
• Negative growth• Historic TOA distribution is changing
Manpower accounts are inflating at rates greater than the OSD composite rates
Readiness requirement continues to outpace our ability to resource
Defense Health Plan costs increasing
• Procurement accounts will continue to shift over time to support manpower and readiness requirement growth
• Affordability now a key driver• Reduced future OCO forces readiness migration into base• Reduced future OCO forces readiness migration into base• Emphasis on the ship building program, information dominance, UAS, energy
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UNCLASSIFIED
POM-13 Reality
‐‐‐‐‐ Increased Fiscal Pressure ‐‐‐‐‐
MSR/MYP, 17.5%
SCN, 15.2%
RDTEN
OPN, 2.4%Limited Options
$4.3B Bogey
over FYDP
BISOG, 27.4%
RDTEN, 6.3%
OMN, 2.6%
WPN
P-8/JSF, 25.0%
Non-FencedRDTEN
OPNOMNWPN
non-Fenced, 39.9%
WPN, 3.6%
JSF
Competing Priorities(CNAF, WCP, FEA)
WPNP-8AF-35C
Competing Requirements(SCN, More Ships added in FYDP)
P-8A transition- DEPSECDEF Guidance
- USMC Transition plan
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Limited options with increased risk
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UNCLASSIFIED
TACAIR Roadmap
EA-6BF/A-18 E/F
Increasingly capable,
CapabilitiesPrecision StrikeStealthAnti-Air Warfare
EA 6B& EA-18G
JSF
F/A-18A-D
NettedForce
Anti Air WarfareElectronic AttackSuppression/Destruction
of Enemy Air DefensesClose Air Support
JSF
N UCAS
UCLASS
sfer
red
N
6 Close Air SupportISRAir RefuelingReliabilitySupportabilityE 2C E 2D
N-UCAS
ogra
ms
tran
to N
2/N
SupportabilityMaintainabilityE-2C E-2D
C-XXPr
o
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C-2A
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UNCLASSIFIED
F-35 Watch ItemsFOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY // REL TO USA, GBR MOD, ITA MOD, NLD MOD, TUR MND, CAN DND, AUS DOD, DNK MOD, and NOR MOD
• Timeline for initial unmonitored LRIP flight clearance• Software concurrency in development, test progress
L lif t t l t• Low life structural parts • Wet runway braking and test
F-35B STOVL Watch Items F-35C CV Watch Items• BF-6 airworthiness• STOVL envelope expansion• Weight
Shipboard Ops
• CF-2/3 deliveries• Horizontal Tail EHA heating• Launch Bar redesign• MLG retract times• Shipboard Ops
• High buffet loads on doors• Aux Air Inlet door redesign• Tires/brakes
• MLG retract times• Approach speed• Weight
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Training Roadmap
CapabilitiesImproved flight performance.Digital cockpits.Modernized Avionics.Reliable platforms.
TH-57B/C TH-57D
Improved curriculum.Better prepares students for tomorrow’s aircraft.
T-34C
T-44 Replacement
Smaller, More Capable
ForcePrimary
T-6A/B
T-6A/B
T 45C Sustainment
Primary training
TC-12B/T-44AT-45C Sustainment
Advanced simulation reduces risk, cost.
T-45A/C
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T-39N/G T-2C18
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UNCLASSIFIED
Maritime Roadmap
C bilitiP-3C
CapabilitiesPersistent ASWISRASuW
P-8A
Persistent ISRStrike Support Tactical ESM
VPU Smaller, Netted
P-8A
Information OpsMulti-INT ISRStrike Targeting
Force
rogr
ams
ansf
erre
do
N2/
N6
BAMSEP-3
BAMS
Pr tra tBAMS
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BAMS
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UNCLASSIFIED
Helicopter Roadmap
SH-60BCapabilitiesAnti-Surface Warfare (ASuW)ISR
HH-1NMH-60R
Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW)Smaller,
More Capable UH-3H
Combat SARMine Counter-measures
pForce
MH-53ESH-60F
Logistics
MH-60SCH 46DCH-46D
HH-60H
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CH-46D
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UNCLASSIFIED
Rotorcraft GapToday:Today:• Current combat operations are Vertical Lift (VL)
centric• 550 Americans and 403 Rotorcraft across DoD
l i O /O f 1 O 01 30 S 10lost in OIF/OEF from 1 Oct 01 – 30 Sep 10• Future conflicts will likely involve complex
expeditionary ops in urban areas or littorals requiring increased VL capabilities
• Current platforms will not be able to address these future operational scenarios – limited growth potential
Options to keep rotorcraft in the fight:• The longer we delay making an investment decision increases the risk & cost in meeting 2030
operational requirements and reduces the opportunities for breakthrough technologies 1. Extend Current Programs
• 20-40 year old helicopters & tiltrotors will need tech infusion to remain affordable and capable– Inherent limitations in current designs prevent next generation capabilities
2. New / Next-Generation PORs (JMR, FVL, JHL)
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( , , )• Requires increased funding - Current profiles do not support
– Near term S&T. . . . . . Out year RDT&E
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UNCLASSIFIED
Transport Roadmap
CapabilitiesC-40A
C-40As and C-130ssustain the fleet with
flexible, time sensitive C-9B/DC-9logistics support to
Navy ComponentCommanders Smaller,
More Capable
C-20G
C-40A: Twice the cargo Twice the range
C-130JMore Capable
ForceC-40A
Twice the availabilityof the C-9B/DC-9
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C-130T
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UNCLASSIFIED
USMC Aviation Transition
TodayKC-130T/J
TomorrowKC-130J
CH-46E MV-22
UH-1NAH-1W
ISR Services
UH-1YAH-1Z
STUASSHADOW
CH-53ECH-53D
Group-4
CH-53K
F/A-18AV-8BEA-6B
F-35B JSF
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VH-3VH-60
VXXTBD
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UNCLASSIFIED
PEO(A) USMC Portfolio Summary• CH-53K CDR Complete • KC-130J Harvest Hawk – Deployed Oct 2010p y• UC-12W IOC – Dec 2010
AH 1Z IOC F b 2011• AH-1Z IOC – Feb 2011• VH-3 Lift Improvement Program IOC – Mid 2011• VXX MS A – Early FY12
MV 22 M lti Y 2 A d FY13• MV-22 Multi-Year 2 Award – FY13• CH-53K 1st Flight – FY14
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UNCLASSIFIED
Discussion