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UCERF3
Task R6 Fault to Fault Jumping Probabilities:Empirical Surface Rupture Database
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Viable ruptures
• Distance between fault sections (e.g. 5 km)
• Strikes can’t vary by more than some amount between neighboring subsections (e.g., 45 degrees)
• Strikes can’t change by more than some total amount along the rupture length (e.g., 90 degrees)
• Rakes can’t change by more than some amount between subsections (e.g., 90 degrees)
• Ruptures can’t include a given subsection more than once (e.g., preventing ruptures from looping back on themselves)
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Empirical Database for fault to fault ruptures
Steve Wesnousky’s empirical database for fault steps
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1990 Luzon, Philippines
Surface Ruptures
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1992 Landers
Surface Ruptures
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2002 Denali, Alaska
Surface Ruptures
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2001 Kulun, China
Surface Ruptures
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Surface Ruptures
1857 Fort Tejon
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1939 Erzincan, Turkey
Surface Ruptures
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1943 Tosya, Turkey
Surface Ruptures
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1945 Mikawa, Japan
Surface Ruptures
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1986 Marryat, Australia
Surface Ruptures
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Rakes can’t change by more than some amount between subsections (e.g., 90 degrees)
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1891 Neodani
Surface Ruptures
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