Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Kickoff meeting
Twinning on development of modelling capacity to support
water quality monitoring in Latvia
Ecosystem model perspectives
Photo Lake Övre hammardammen, Fredrik Ejhed
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Problems using only 22 agricultural regions in Sweden
Problems in a region with large climate gradient. Runoff is overestimated in parts of the region which dilutes thus gives too low concentrations. Total nitrogen concentration vs time in Stensån Sweden. SOILNDB and HBV.
The model is used for production of result dependent on the management practices that can be changed by measures. The large shortterm variations is not in focus of the model but it has been validated at field scale.
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Swedish monitoring programme adjustments due to WFD
Trend stations monitoring programme consists of stations that– class high or good status from biological parameters– are pristine without any pressures– are sampled yearly both water chemistry and biology
Rotation stations monitoring programme consists of stations that– provide additional areal coverage of information on water
chemistry and biology– are sampled in a 6-year rotation
The largest change is increase in monitoring of biology
The large river outlet to the sea monitoring programme continues
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
6 Parameter regions for calibration of HBV hydrology
HBV230 stations for calibration140 stations for validationtimesplit validation also
Hydrological modelling HBV
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Ecosystem models
Combining the complete ecosystem response to pollution
Part of the ecosystem is the water quality models
Combination of atmospheric processes and water processes
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Air - water modelling linkage
Wetland
Shallow lakes
WFD demand good ecological status
ICP Critical load = WFD border good-moderate ecological status
Model interface air –water
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
ICP critical load methods
ICP modelling and mapping http://www.oekodata.com/icpmapping/index.html
– No dynamics needed for ICP exceedence and critical load values steady state. SMB Simple Mass Balance
– In water quality model dynamic is essential for e.g. lake processes.
– Dynamics can be used to establish steady state.– In case of exceedence dynamic modelling coupled to
water quality models is needed to investigate the recovery process.
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Nitrogen lake retention from catchment to sea
Retention models for lakes – the linkage to air and critical load ?
Small lakes (<1 km2) total circulation
Large lakes have a passive and an active water volume which variate with flow in and out
Retention within the active part (HBV-N)– Inorg. N : denitrification, biota assimilation, algae production
and mineralisation.
Lake retention = lakeret * cilake * lakearea * tmean5lakeret = par. calibrated, cilake = concentration of inorg. N in active lake part, tmean5=mean temperature latest 5 days
– Denitrification most important.– Takes place in the sediments, thus area and not volume is a
parameter.
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Retention models for lakes – the linkage to air critical load ? ...continued
Lakes with long residence time are more effective in retention of N
Temperature and nutrient status control org.N production– Lakeproduction = lakeorg * cilake2 * vlake * tmean10lakeorg=calibrated parametercilake2=concentration of inorganic N in lakevlake=lake volume tmean10=temperatur mean latest 10 daysif tmean10>tmean20 then lakeproduction is positiveif tmean10<tmean20 then lakeproduction is negative
When the temperature is lower the latest 10 days than latest 20 days, sedimentation and mineralisation exceed the production.
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Air and water quality link Runoff from paved surfaces and PM10 particles in air –a local urban problem
EU ARTEMIS project links road emissions model to traffic situations
SIMAIR swedish geographic distribution of traffic emissions
Risc assessment of effects on water bodies
f uel emission
Break wear
Tire wearasphalt wear
Deviation
Speed
Road salt
Road sandClimate
Road climate
f uel emission
Break wear
Tire wearasphalt wear
fuel emission
Break wear
Tire wearasphalt wear
Deviation
Speed
Road salt
Road sandClimate
Road climate
Deviation
Speed
Road salt
Road sandClimate
Road climate
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Gross load
N from forest landuse kg/ha,y
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Whithin WFDEcosystem expected ecological status
Good ecological quality
Target values ex. Swedish environmental quality targets.
WFD good ecological status ín Sweden– Bottomfauna index– Fish– etc
Critical load index not entirely the same as WFD
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Toxic pressure
Sediment
WaterSoil
Vegetation
AirAerosols
Aquatic particles
Biota
Transport Processes and the use of Models
Occurrence and distribution of chemicals in different media
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Multimedia fugacity models and screening
Useful tool for predicting environmental fate of chemicals
Point out likely recipient media and transport pathways
Can be used generally or for specific region
Help prioritising chemicals of environmental interest, ”ranking tool”
Quick, cheap, easy
Toxic Pressures - Models
From IVL presentation in REBECCA
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Insjöar (Abborre)
ng
/g lip
idvi
kt
0
5
10
15
20
BysjönHjärtsjönStensjön
Kust (Abborre/Tånglake)
ng
/g lip
idvi
kt
0
5
10
15
VäderöarnaKvädöfjärdenHolmöarna
Hav (sill/strömming)
BDE47 BDE99 BDE100 BDE153 BDE154
ng
/g lip
idvi
kt
0
5
10
15
20
25
FladenUtlänganHarufjärden
Ref Screening of organic contaminants in Sweden Sternbeck et al 2004
Lake
Coastal
Sea
Screening
PBDEs in fish (ng/g lipid)
Occurrence
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Pollution transport and fate- fugacity models
Calculates transport and fate of the substance from equilibrium qriteria value.
The model evaluates the relative partitioning differences to different media (sediment, biota, water, air)
not applied on national level
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Example of output
Air
Sediment
SoilWater
Urban film
0.028 kg/year
0.012 kg/year
0.13 kg/year
8.44x10-4
kg/year
5.48x10-3
kg/year6.03x10-3
kg/year
3.18 kg/year
0.59 kg/year
0.14 kg/year
0 kg/year
0 kg/year
0.030 kg/year
1.61 x10-2 kg/year
0.18 kg/year
2.24x10-3
kg/year
1.7x10-3 kg/year
0.026 kg/year
3.14 kg/year
1.72x10-4 kg (0.10%) 6.10 pg/m3
f = 8.87x10-12 Pa
0.10 kg (58.6 %) 0.12 ng/g f = 1.08x10-15 Pa
1.01x10-3 kg (0.54 %) 5.73pg/L f= 1.98x10-15 Pa
1.05x10-3kg (0.6 %) 140 mg/m3
f=3.58x10-12 Pa
0.072 kg (40.1 %) 0.54 ng/g f =3.05x10-14 PaTotal mass: 0.179 kg
Persistence = 400.19 h = 16.67 days
0.10 kg/year
0.42 kg/year
reaction
advection
emission
intermedia transport
Tostratosphere
8.33x10-6 kg/year Chemical: BDE 99
Air
Sediment
SoilWater
Urban film
0.028 kg/year
0.012 kg/year
0.13 kg/year
8.44x10-4
kg/year
5.48x10-3
kg/year6.03x10-3
kg/year
3.18 kg/year
0.59 kg/year
0.14 kg/year
0 kg/year
0 kg/year
0.030 kg/year
1.61 x10-2 kg/year
0.18 kg/year
2.24x10-3
kg/year
1.7x10-3 kg/year
0.026 kg/year
3.14 kg/year
1.72x10-4 kg (0.10%) 6.10 pg/m3
f = 8.87x10-12 Pa
0.10 kg (58.6 %) 0.12 ng/g f = 1.08x10-15 Pa
1.01x10-3 kg (0.54 %) 5.73pg/L f= 1.98x10-15 Pa
1.05x10-3kg (0.6 %) 140 mg/m3
f=3.58x10-12 Pa
0.072 kg (40.1 %) 0.54 ng/g f =3.05x10-14 PaTotal mass: 0.179 kg
Persistence = 400.19 h = 16.67 days
0.10 kg/year
0.42 kg/year
reaction
advection
emission
intermedia transport
Tostratosphere
8.33x10-6 kg/year Chemical: BDE 99
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Toxic Pressures - QSAR/QSPR models• Quantitative structure activity/property relationships
– modelling the relation between chemical structure and activity/properties
• Prediction of unmeasured properties for substances…
• …based on molecular descriptors
• Reduce testing needs
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Toxic Pressures -QSAR end-points
• Aquatic toxicity
– acute tox (EC50/LC50)
– chronic tox (EC50)
– PNEC
– algae
– daphnia
– fish
• Physical properties
– biotic and abioticdegradation
– bioconcentration BCF
– soil/sediment sorption KOC
– KOW, MP, VP, BP, HLC, SW