Download - TRENDstorm Innovation CAMP 2013
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SEEING OPPORTUNITY IN CHANGE
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2 VIEWS OF CHANGE
Resistors Challengers See Risk See Potential Ask Why? Ask Why not? Already is Could be Too small/niche Open space Best customers New customers Maintain position New order
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HOW CAN WE SEE OPPORTUNITY IN CHANGE?
Trends are a way to look at what’s coming, and actively speculate on the
disruption and opportunity that could be available.
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Today, we’ll look at two types:
TRENDS in an industry Near-term opportunities, 12-24 months Illustrate with examples for context Go deep: implications, opportunities
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Today, we’ll look at two types:
TRENDS that challenged an industry No one has combined peanut butter and chocolate yet
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Today, we’ll look at two types:
TRENDS that challenged an industry No one has combined peanut butter and chocolate yet
With an exercise called TRENDstorming
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An exercise to overlay trends and your category to forsee change and opportunities for disruption
Copyright , 2013 Fisher College of Business, and Gretchen Goffe- Reproduction & distribution prohibited without written permission
TRENDstorming
trend + industry LIVING ALONE: Single households are more prevalent
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An exercise to overlay trends and your category to forsee change and opportunities for disruption
Copyright , 2013 Fisher College of Business, and Gretchen Goffe- Reproduction & distribution prohibited without written permission
TRENDstorming
trend coffee
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?
Copyright , 2013 Fisher College of Business, and Gretchen Goffe- Reproduction & distribution prohibited without written permission
TRENDstorming
trend coffee
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The shift in power to consumers from brands – consumers dictate the terms (where, how and for how much) of the relationship, rather than brands
trend 2. ê BRAND AUTHORITY
TREND
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TREND .2 ê BRAND AUTHORITY
TRENDstorm overlays trends and your category to forsee change
NETFLIX REDBOX
Movie Rentals/ Blockbuster
Could Blockbuster have seen change coming? Do you think they should have invested in a diversified model?
Why or why not?
Copyright , 2013 Fisher College of Business, and Gretchen Goffe- Reproduction & distribution prohibited without written permission
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The practice of obtaining needed services, ideas, or content by soliciting contributions from a large group of people, and especially from an online community, rather than from traditional employees or suppliers.
trend 1. CROWDSOURCING
TREND
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TREND .1 CROWDSOURCING
EXAMPLE
KICKSTARTER
Financial services
Kickstarter is part of a rapidly growing ‘social funding’ movement that connects individuals in a voluntary community, giving capital access to projects and people they value
and opening up a whole other way for ideas to get to market.
Copyright , 2013 Fisher College of Business, and Gretchen Goffe- Reproduction & distribution prohibited without written permission
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TRENDS: PAST & PRESENT
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The practice of obtaining needed services, ideas, or content by soliciting contributions from a large group of people, and especially from an online community, rather than from traditional employees or suppliers.
trend 1. CROWDSOURCING
TREND
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The shift in power to consumers from brands – consumers dictate the terms (where, how and for how much) of the relationship, rather than brands
trend 2. ê BRAND AUTHORITY
TREND
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Fractional ownership or usage of services/things you don’t need all the time.
trend 3. COLLECTIVE CONSUMPTION
TREND
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Thanks to the continued explosion of touchscreen smartphones, tablets, and the “cloud’, the screen culture will be not only more pervasive but more personal, more immersive and more interactive than ever.
trend 4. SCREEN CULTURE
TREND
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Consumers take advantage of new technologies and apps to discreetly and continuously track, manage and be alerted to any changes in their personal health.
trend 5. DIY HEALTH
TREND
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Consumers continue to hunt for deals and discounts, but they will do so with relish. Deals are now about more than just saving money; it’s about the thrill, the pursuit, the control, and the perceived smartness, and thus a source of status too.
trend 6. DEALER CHIC
TREND
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Will coins and notes completely disappear in 2012. No. But a cashless feature is (finally) upon us, as major players such as MasterCard and Google work to build a whole new eco-system of payments, rewards and offers around new mobile technologies.
trend 7. CASH-LESS
TREND
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The Maker Movement reflects the technological, political, and economic zeitgeist: the need for a technologically skilled work force, hope for a revival of American manufacturing, concern about STEM education all the while cutting many of the programs in schools that foster these skills – arts, wood shop, metal shop, computer science – to make more room for standardized testing.
trend 8. MAKER MOVEMENT
TREND
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Anything that makes it downright simple- if not completely effortless- for consumers to contribute to something will be more popular than ever in 2012. Unlocked by the spread of ever smarter sensors in mobile phones, people will not only be able but increasingly willing to broadcast information about where and what they are doing, to help improve products and services.
trend 9. IDLE SOURCING
TREND
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Brands cede control to users, recognizing and providing a forum for users opinions, reviews, points of view and other content.
trend 10. USER GENERATED CONTENT
TREND
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Corn is in demand- for fuel, for human food and for animal feed. How will the growing demand for, and consumption of, corn affect us?
trend 11. INGREDIENT: CORN
TREND
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Brands will increasingly take back all of their products for recycling (sometimes forced by new legislation), and recycle them responsibly and innovatively.
trend 12. ECO-CYCOLOGY
TREND
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Why (to consumers) brands that behave more humanly, including exposing their flaws, will be awesome.
trend 13. FLAWSOME
TREND
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It’s never been easier for savvy consumers to resell or trade in past purchases, and unlock the value in their current possessions. Trading in is the new buying.
trend 14. RECOMMERCE
TREND
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Advanced education via virtual classes becomes more accepted and fills a desire to continue to learn without a campus.
trend 15. DISTANCE LEARNING
TREND
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Thanks to agribusiness and advanced agricultural science, it was plentiful, cheap, luscious looking…and that’s all that counted. The chemical-free food movement hits the mainstream rather than being derided as merely a fad, a self-indulgent affectation of well-heeled liberals.
trend 16. SAFE FOOD
TREND
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The ability to crunch tremendous amounts of data to discern trends, patterns and insights that was previously beyond our reach.
trend 17. BIG DATA
TREND
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TRENDstorm: IdenBfy a trend that combined with the industry to change or challenge
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TREND .1 CROWDSOURCING
EXAMPLE
KICKSTARTER
Financial services
Kickstarter is part of a rapidly growing ‘social funding’ movement that connects individuals in a voluntary community, giving capital access to projects and people they value
and opening up a whole other way for ideas to get to market.
Copyright , 2013 Fisher College of Business, and Gretchen Goffe-‐ Reproduc?on & distribu?on prohibited without wriCen permission
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NETFLIX or REDBOX
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KICKSTARTER
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KEURIG
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SQUARE
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ZIPCAR
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GROUPON or GILT
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iTUNES U
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WIKIPEDIA
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SHAPEWAYS
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FOURSQUARE
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PANDORA
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SPLUNK
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The practice of obtaining needed services, ideas, or content by soliciting contributions from a large group of people, and especially from an online community, rather than from traditional employees or suppliers.
trend 1. CROWDSOURCING
Kickstarter\TREND
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Fractional ownership or usage of services/things you don’t need all the time.
trend 3. COLLECTIVE CONSUMPTION
Zipcar\TREND
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Consumers embrace life on the go and the small screen becomes even more ubiquitous.
trend 4. SCREEN CULTURE
Pandora\TREND
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Consumers continue to hunt for deals and discounts, but they will do so with relish. Deals are now about more than just saving money; it’s about the thrill, the pursuit, the control, and the perceived smartness, and thus a source of status too.
trend 6. DEALER CHIC
Groupon and Gilt\TREND
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Will coins and notes completely disappear in 2012. No. But a cashless feature is (finally) upon us, as major players such as MasterCard and Google work to build a whole new eco-system of payments, rewards and offers around new mobile technologies.
trend 7. CASH-LESS
Square\TREND
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The Maker Movement also reflects the technological, political, and economic zeitgeist: the need for a technologically skilled work force, hope for a revival of American manufacturing, concern about STEM education all the while cutting many of the programs in schools that foster these skills – arts, wood shop, metal shop, computer science – to make more room for standardized testing.
trend 8. MAKER MOVEMENT
Shapeways\TREND + Kinkos
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Anything that makes it downright simple- if not completely effortless- for consumers to contribute to something will be more popular than ever in 2012. Unlocked by the spread of ever smarter sensors in mobile phones, people will not only be able but increasingly willing to broadcast information about where and what they are doing, to help improve products and services.
trend 9. IDLE SOURCING
Foursquare\TREND
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Brands cede control to users, recognizing and providing a forum for users opinions, reviews, points of view and other content.
trend 10. USER GENERATED CONTENT
Wikipedia\TREND