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Transitionan introduction
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A Brief History of Transition
Part 1
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Rob Hopkins in Kinsale
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Colin Campbell
Founder and Honorary Chairman of ASPO, Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
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“a roadmap to sustainability, to localisation, to abundance.”
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Transition Town Totnes - 2006
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transitionculture.org
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Published in March 2008
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Transition Initiatives
http://transitionnetwork.org/initiatives
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Responses to Peak Oil & Climate Change
CLIMATE CHANGE
• Climate engineering• Carbon capture and
storage• International
emissions trading• Climate adaptation• Nuclear power
P O + C C =Systems Re-think
• Relocalization• Local Resilience • Design for Energy
Descent
PEAK OIL
• Burn everything!relaxed drilling
regulationsbiofuelstar sands and
non-conventional oils
• Resource nationalism
• Resource Wars
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Start of recession
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PEAK OIL
GLOBALWARMING
ECONOMIC INSTABILITY
THE LONG EMERGENCY
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Energydescent
Economic instability
Environmental destruction
Crisis of the human spirit
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Motivating Challenges
Part 2
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Energy Descent
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Peak Oil in the US
Time ->
1970
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IEA admits P.O. without admitting it
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No need to worry?
http://www.zaphu.com/2008/05/22/energy-crisis-what-energy-crisis/
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Alternative energy is low quality (dispersed) Alternative energy has low EROEI (Energy
Return on Energy Invested) Non-liquid fuels are inefficient for
transportation Alt. energy lacks chemical value of oil
Except that…
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Energy Quality Dilute sunlight must be
concentrated to do much work
Electricity has a very high concentration of energy
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Our entire way of life depends on oil and cheap energy
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No human society had anything near the amount of energy before the discovery of fossil fuels.
A gallon of gasoline represents 500 hours of human labor.
A tank of gas contains 8,000 human hours (three years*) of work!
We take it for granted.
* If you worked for 8 hrs/day, 52 weeks a year, 7 days a week that equates to about 3 years’ work.
The phenomenal energy in gasoline
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Energy Return on Energy Invested
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We’re not “running out” of energy. We are out of cheap energy. Most of the remaining energy will be too
expensive to procure.
Peak Oil – Takeaways
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Rob Hopkins on Energy Descent
Rob Hopkins
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“Peak Everything”Resource Depletion
Energy (oil, coal, natural gas) Water Phosphorus Minerals Food Topsoil
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Chris Martenson: Crash Course
Peak Everything
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The “output” side Ocean acidification Climate weirdness Loss of rainforest Toxic wastes Nuclear waste Loss of 150 species per day
Environmental destruction
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US Gross Federal DebtApr 15, 2011: 14.3 trillion
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US Adjusted Monetary Base (BASE)
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Money is created when banks lend it. By definition, there is always more debt on
the books than there is money to repay it. This system assumes increased production
year over year… which assumes increased resource
extraction, year over year… which, on a finite planet, cannot be
sustained.
Where does money come from?
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Since 1970, US economy is based less and less on production of physical goods & services; more on more on debt and financial instruments.
“When you try to create infinite growth on a finite planet, only two things can change: Either the planet gets bigger, which seems unlikely, or the economy stops growing.”- Paul Gilding, former head of Greenpeace International
Economics – Takeaways
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Stress Disconnection from nature Loneliness Overwork Crime Rage Addictions Dependence on external systems
(corporations, institutions, government agencies) – “outsourcing” all aspects of life
Crisis of the human spirit
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The TransitionResponse
Part 3
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Indu
stria
l Asc
ent
(Mod
erni
sm)
Energy & Resource Use Population Pollution
Climax
Techno-Fantasy
Green-Tech StabilityGreen-Tech Stability
Earthstewardship
Mad Max
Great Grand Children
Agriculture 10.000yrs BP Industrial Revolution Baby Boom
Pre-industrial sustainable culture
Historical Time Future Time
Creative Descent
Transition Towns
Creative Descent
Transition Towns
Where are we going?
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How can we plan for an uncertain future?
It’s clear we need to change direction.
But how can we prepare when we don’t know exactly what’s going to happen?
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Resilience
“The ability of a system, from individual people to whole economies, to hold together and maintain their ability to function in the face of changeand shocks from the outside.”
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Not Adding Resilience:
Centralized recycling
Ornamental trees Organic food,
trucked in Imported “green
building” materials Ethical investment Buying choral CDs Consumerism
Adding Resilience: Local composting Productive trees Local food
production Local building
materials Local currencies Singing in the choir Reciprocity
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Not Adding Resilience:
Centralized recycling
Ornamental trees Organic food,
trucked in Imported “green
building” materials Ethical investment Buying choral CDs Consumerism
Adding Resilience: Local composting Productive trees Local food
production Local building
materials Local currencies Singing in the choir Reciprocity
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Not Adding Resilience:
Centralized recycling
Ornamental trees Organic food,
trucked in Imported “green
building” materials Ethical investment Buying choral CDs Consumerism
Adding Resilience: Local composting Productive trees Local food
production Local building
materials Local currencies Singing in the choir Reciprocity
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Not Adding Resilience:
Centralized recycling
Ornamental trees Organic food,
trucked in Imported “green
building” materials Ethical investment Buying choral CDs Consumerism
Adding Resilience: Local composting Productive trees Local food
production Local building
materials Local currencies Singing in the choir Reciprocity
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Not Adding Resilience:
Centralized recycling
Ornamental trees Organic food,
trucked in Imported “green
building” materials Ethical investment Buying choral CDs Consumerism
Adding Resilience: Local composting Productive trees Local food
production Local building
materials Local currencies Singing in the choir Reciprocity
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Not Adding Resilience:
Centralized recycling
Ornamental trees Organic food,
trucked in Imported “green
building” materials Ethical investment Buying choral CDs Consumerism
Adding Resilience: Local composting Productive trees Local food
production Local building
materials Local currencies Singing in the choir Reciprocity
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Not Adding Resilience:
Centralized recycling
Ornamental trees Organic food,
trucked in Imported “green
building” materials Ethical investment Buying choral CDs Consumerism
Adding Resilience: Local composting Productive trees Local food
production Local building
materials Local currencies Singing in the choir Reciprocity
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Not Adding Resilience:
Centralized recycling
Ornamental trees Organic food,
trucked in Imported “green
building” materials Ethical investment Buying choral CDs Consumerism
Adding Resilience: Local composting Productive trees Local food
production Local building
materials Local currencies Singing in the choir Reciprocity
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Not Adding Resilience:
Centralized recycling
Ornamental trees Organic food,
trucked in Imported “green
building” materials Ethical investment Buying choral CDs Consumerism
Adding Resilience: Local composting Productive trees Local food
production Local building
materials Local currencies Singing in the choir Reciprocity
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Not Adding Resilience:
Centralized recycling
Ornamental trees Organic food,
trucked in Imported “green
building” materials Ethical investment Buying choral CDs Consumerism
Adding Resilience: Local composting Productive trees Local food
production Local building
materials Local currencies Singing in the choir Reciprocity
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Not Adding Resilience:
Centralized recycling
Ornamental trees Organic food,
trucked in Imported “green
building” materials Ethical investment Buying choral CDs Consumerism
Adding Resilience: Local composting Productive trees Local food
production Local building
materials Local currencies Singing in the choir Reciprocity
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Not Adding Resilience:
Centralized recycling
Ornamental trees Organic food,
trucked in Imported “green
building” materials Ethical investment Buying choral CDs Consumerism
Adding Resilience: Local composting Productive trees Local food
production Local building
materials Local currencies Singing in the choir Reciprocity
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Not Adding Resilience:
Centralized recycling
Ornamental trees Organic food,
trucked in Imported “green
building” materials Ethical investment Buying choral CDs Consumerism
Adding Resilience: Local composting Productive trees Local food
production Local building
materials Local currencies Singing in the choir Reciprocity
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Not Adding Resilience:
Centralized recycling
Ornamental trees Organic food,
trucked in Imported “green
building” materials Ethical investment Buying choral CDs Consumerism
Adding Resilience: Local composting Productive trees Local food
production Local building
materials Local currencies Singing in the choir Reciprocity
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Relocalization
“The process by which a region, county, city or even neighborhood frees itself from an overdependence on the global economy and invests in its own resources to produce a significant portion of the goods, services, food and energy it consumes from its local endowment of financial, natural and human capital.”
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How Do You Engage the Community?
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Suggest a Positive Vision"You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To
change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete." Buckminster Fuller
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Energy Descent / Abundance Ascent
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“The A to C of Transition” Use the ones that seem useful Add new ones you come up with Disregard others that don’t work for you
12 Ingredients (aka Steps)
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1. Form an initiating group and design its evolution from the outset
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2. Raise Awareness
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"What Does Sustainability Mean to You?" "Movie Night: End of Suburbia" "Creating a Pedestrian & Bike-friendly
Community" "Movie Night: The Power of Community How
Cuba Survived Peak Oil" "How do we connect our community?" "Taking Action to Launch Your Ideas" "Permaculture and Transition Towns" "Community Forum with City Light" "Solar Cookout" "My Eco-Neighborhood - an evening talk with
Robyn Francis" "Creating Local Economy" "Climate Change" "Energy / Ingenuity" "Voluntary Simplicity" "After the Oil Rush: Planning our community in
the post-petroleum age" "Local Assets Treasure Hunt"
Some Sustainble NE Seattle Events "Water and Rain Harvesting" "Rethinking Jobs - Transitioning to a Green
Economy" "Show 'N' Tell: Projects for Sustainable Living" "Second Annual Solar Cookout!" "PLANET: HOME a sustainable living festival" "Creating a local resilient economy in NE
Seattle" "Personal Resilience - What's community got
to do with it?" "Gross National Happiness" "Energy! What's Next?" "Oil For Dinner. How Peak Oil and politics
affect what we eat" "Waste Should Not Be Wasted" "City Food Takes Root" "Sustainable community management of
shared resources"
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Awareness: Discussion Course
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3. Lay the foundations
• Collaborate where possible
• Co-operation, not competition.
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4. Organize a Great Unleashing
Transition Whatcom Great Unleashing
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Action oriented groups Networking Toward the EDAP Not everyone has the same interests,
skills or passions A resilient community requires
diversity
5. Form working groups
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Urban Farmers
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Local Currencies
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Rob Hopkins: Local Currencies
Local Currencies
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6. Use Open Space Open Space Technology World Cafes
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7. Develop visible practical manifestations
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Solar Potluck
…visible manifestations
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"Hands On" Reskilling Fair - Sustainable NE Seattle
8. Facilitate the Great Reskilling
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Rob Hopkins: Interacting with Government
9. Build a Bridge to Local Government
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10. Honor the elders11. Let it go where it wants to go…12. Create an Energy Descent Plan
And the Rest
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Transition Laguna: Heart and Soul Group
Heart & Soul Groups
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inner transition and thepsychology of change
What inner beliefs underlie our outer world?
Why have we made a self destructive world?
Why don’t we wake up and do something about it?
How can the Transition movement support inner transition?
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The “Energy Descent Action Plan” uniquely distinguishes the Transition process from other "greening" efforts.
We prefer:“Energy Downscaling Action Plan”
Topic areas align with Working Groups
The EDAP – a planned way down
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Transition Portland: David Johnson
An “Open-source” movement
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Cheerful disclaimer We truly don't know if this will work. Transition is a social experiment on a massive
scale. What we are convinced of is this:
◦ If we wait for the governments, it'll be too little, too late
◦ If we act as individuals, it'll be too little ◦ But if we act as communities, it might just be
enough, just in time.
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www.transitionseattle.com