Download - Thesis Presentation
![Page 1: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Changing Northern Range of the Japanese
Honeysuckle in Pennsylvania
![Page 2: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Japanese Honeysuckle
Native to Japan and Korea
Introduced to the United States in the early 19th century
Popular ornamental plant at the time
Within a century it had spread to areas along the Potomac River
Can now be found throughout most of the southeastern United States
![Page 3: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
An Ecological Threat
The Japanese Honeysuckle:Is a perennial, semi-evergreen vineClimbs trees in order to increase sunlight exposureCan form dense mats on the forest floorCan also block entire sections of forest floor from receiving sunlight by forming these mats in tree canopiesCan strangle and even take down smaller treesHas few natural enemies
![Page 4: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
![Page 6: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Pennsylvania’s Unique Geographical LocationLocated between 39˚ 43’ and 42˚ 16’ N
Climate similar to Northern Japan (Koppen)
Japanese Honeysuckle has invaded many southern Pennsylvania counties
Has been hindered by northern low winter temperatures
Can be found south of an isotherm where mean January temperature is 30˚F
Climate change will shift this isotherm
Also cannot grow in areas that receive less than 40 inches of rain, annually
![Page 7: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Counties that have reported sightings of Japanese Honeysuckle within the past ten yearsSource: www.invasiveplantatlas.org
![Page 8: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Climate ChangeGlobal temperatures and precipitation levels rising
This will lead to increased range of invasive species
Areas that currently are not suitable for Japanese Honeysuckle Growth will become suitable
![Page 9: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
IPCCThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has produced several climate change scenarios which project future environmental factors such as:
TemperaturePrecipitationCO2 concentration
Different projections based on different possible scenarios
![Page 10: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Suitability ModelDesigned to help understand habitat distributions
Based on customizable input factors
Can be used to analyze change in these distributions
A very adaptable method of analysis
Can be raster or vector files
![Page 12: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Data SourcesUnited States Department of Agriculture Geospatial Data Gateway
Data used: State, County outlinesNational Land Cover Dataset (NLCD)
WorldClim – Global Climate DataBioclim: current and future (IPCC) projected climatic raster datasets
![Page 13: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Creating the Model
Created in ArcToolbox
Analysis uses spatial analyst tools
All analysis data converted into raster format and placed within a file geodatabase
![Page 14: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Step 1:Import (and Reproject)
Import all raster data into model and ensure that they are all in the same projection
Input rasters include:Land UseCurrent TemperatureCurrent PrecipitationFuture TemperatureFuture Precipitation
![Page 15: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Land Use Raster
![Page 16: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Current Temperature and Precipitation
Rasters
Current Temperature (Left) and Precipitation (Right)
![Page 17: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Future Temperature and Precipitation
Rasters
Future Temperature (Left) and Precipitation (Right)
![Page 18: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Step 2:Reclassify
Reclassify rasters
This is a Boolean analysis, values that are not suitable for Japanese Honeysuckle growth are reclassified to the value 0, values that are suitable are reclassified to 1
![Page 19: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Reclassify DetailsLand Use:
The Japanese Honeysuckle is capable of growing in most land use types with the exception of medium to high density urban areas or areas of open water
Current and future temperature:
Areas where temperature values are 30˚F or below will receive a 0. 31˚F and above receive a 1.
Current and future precipitation: Areas where precipitation values are 39” or below will receive a 0. 40” and above receive a 1.
![Page 20: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Land Use Reclassified
![Page 21: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Current Temperature and Precipitation
Reclassified
Current Reclassified Temperature (Left) and Precipitation (Right)
![Page 22: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Future Temperature and Precipitation
Reclassified
Future Reclassified Temperature (Left) and Precipitation (Right)
![Page 23: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Step 3:Combine
Combine raster files into two final layers, representing current and future habitat suitabilities
![Page 24: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
AttributesAt this point, the attribute tables look like this:
![Page 25: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Step 4:Clip
Clip the two rasters to the study area
Overlay the counties file and put understandable color scheme on the data to get a sense of which areas are more suitable than others
![Page 26: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Running the Model
After the suitability model is run, the geodatabase looks like this:
![Page 27: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Current Suitability Output
![Page 28: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Future Suitability Output
![Page 29: Thesis Presentation](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062523/58ec94c11a28ab3e468b45e7/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)