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The Swedish Energy Foresight
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Energy supply and use in Sweden 2001, TWh
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Use of electricity in Sweden 1970–2001
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Electricity production in Sweden 1970–2001
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Energy supplies to district heating 1970–2001
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Swedish imports of crude oil and petroleum products, 1972–2001 by country of origin (million tonnes, net)
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Not just another energy study • Energy is a resource for sustainable development – not a
problem
• Focus on the reduction of the negative effects of energy use – not on the use of energy
• International developments are important
• Energy does not shape society – energy systems are shaped by society
• Transport, industry and buildings – integrated parts in the energy system
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Sustainable development – not just environment
Source: UN Global Compact
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A scenario approach • Scenarios are tools for building different conceivable future
energy systems – not forecasts of the future.
• Scenarios should provide provoking, credible and relevant
visions, but not necessarily the most likely or desirable
ones.
• Scenarios should take into consideration the deep currents
driving the development of energy systems – not merely
individual events.
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Organization • System foresight panel
• User foresight panel
• Structure foresight panel
• Long-term foresight panel
• Expert teams on different energy sources
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Deliverables • A summary report
• Panel reports
• Factual reports
• A process
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Energy demand • Major energy savings in buildings – but more buildings to
heat or cool
• More efficient office and household appliances – but more
appliances in need of electricity
• Spread of integrated transport solutions and better
logistics – but an increased demand of transport
• Improved efficiency in industrial processes – but an
annual increase in production
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Two scenarios • Climate in focus
• Climate - one factor among others
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Time
Energy
Solar energyHydrogen
Natural gasClean coal
New nuclear
Oil & coalNuclear
Natural gas, clean coal and new nuclear - a bridge to a solar and hydrogen society
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Climate in focus – characteristics • Internationally harmonized measures to reduce
emissions
• More efficient economic measures
• R&D and new infrastructures
• Emphasis on energy efficiency
• Higher energy prices
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Energy supply in Sweden 2050for the scenario Climate in focus?• Hydro as today
• Solar-based electricity other than hydro (e.g. bio, wind, solar cells)
and hydrogen fuel cells have a considerable and growing market
share
• Existing nuclear reactors have been partly replaced after 60 years
of operation. A new generation of nuclear technology offers
improved safety and a bridge to a solar and hydrogen society.
• A majority of vehicles have fuel cells with hydrogen produced from
natural gas with carbon sequestration and from renewable energy.
• Heating with bio, heat pumps and electricity (low energy buildings)
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Climate a factor among others
– characteristics • Limited harmonisation
• Focus on the local environment rather than on the global
• Emphasis on local production of heat and electricity
• Voluntary market-oriented actions from industry
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Energy supply in Sweden 2050 for Climate - one factor among others?• Hydro as today
• Solar-based electricity other than hydro (e.g. bio, wind, solar cells) has a limited but growing market share
• Existing nuclear reactors phased out after 40 years of operation and replaced by electricity from natural gas.
• A majority of vehicles use fossil fuels, liquid and natural gas fuels from natural gas where available. Only zero emission cars are allowed in central parts of urban areas.
• Heating using bio, natural gas, heat pumps and electricity (low energy buildings).
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Priority questions in the two scenarios• The level and composition of energy demand?
• Replacement of the existing nuclear reactors?
• Replacement/reduction of oil-derived fuels for transport?
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Industry in 2020
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Industry profile
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Knowledge content (”price per kilo”)
Export share %
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Sweden:
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Process development, Swedish pulp mill
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Energy use in Industry
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• Solar collectors
• Insulation and windows
• Efficient heating and ventilation
systems
• Individual metering of heat and water
Result is 40% reduction of heating requirements.
• Solar collectors
• Insulation and windows
• Efficient ventilation. Heat exchanger
85% efficiency.
• Heating from electric appliances
Result is 50% reduction of energy use without additional building costs.
Energy in buildings 2020
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Energy in buildings 2020 Energy use one-family houses
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Energy use in the building sector
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Transportation in 2020 - hybrid vehicles in urban areas
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Transportation in 2020 - availability of fuel cell vehicles
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Efficiency
from well to
tank (%)
Vehicle
efficiency
(%)
Overall efficiency (%)
0 10 20 30
Gasoline
vehicles88 16
HVs (gasoline) 88 30
FCVs 58 ~50
future FCHV ~70 ~60
Efficiency of Well to Wheel
Source: Toyota trial calculations
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Energy use in the Transport sector
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Total use of energy in SwedenDecreased use of energy in the Residental sector will compensate for increased use in Industry and Transport
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Nuclear reactors 40-60 yearsOskarshamn 1
Oskarshamn 2
Oskarshamn 3
Ringhals 1
Ringhals 2
Ringhals 3
Ringhals 4
Forsmark 1
Forsmark 2
Forsmark 3
Barsebäck 2
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
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Production cost new electricity 2002
Blueparts of the bars show costs after future add-ons (taxes and emission rights) and deductions ("green” certificates and wind power bonuses).
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Natural gas to Europe
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Separation and storage of CO2 from electricity generation(coal)
Development of total estimated cost (separation, transport and storage)
1990 2000
100
50
with further developedtechnology
EUR/ton CO2
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Institutional, industrial and technical structures in 2020 Climate in focus – requires joint European actions
Climate – one factor among others – other issues surface
European co-ordination of the energy field Diverging European
development in the energy field
Level European playing field – yields an oligopoly situation – few large actors with similar business
Different playing fields – different business opportunities – multitude of actors of different size
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Sweden 2020?Climate - one factor among others
• Half nuclear phased out
• Large scale introduction of natural gas
• Weak incentives for energy efficiency
• Diverging European energy market
Climate in focus
• No change in nuclear
• Limited use of natural gas
• Strong incentives for energy efficiency
• Co-ordinated European energy market
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Thank you for your
attention!