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The Solar and Space Weather Reseach Group in Lund
The Solar and Space Weather Reseach Group in Lund
• Space weather• Solar activity - the driver• Modelling and forecasting
space weather and effects using KBN
• ESA/Lund Space Weather Forecast Service
• Regional Warning Center Sweden in Lund
• www.irfl.lu.se
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Space weatherSpace weather
• The solar activity causes conditions that can influence the Earth’s atmosphere, technological systems, and endanger human health and life.
• We call that space weather
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SOHOSOHO
• Solar Heliospheric Observatory was launched on December 2, 1995
• SOHO carries three instruments observing the solar interior, six the solar corona and three the solar wind
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Stanford collaborationStanford collaboration
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MDI/SOHO reveals the interiorMDI/SOHO reveals the interior
MDI shows how magnetic elements form sunspots
MDI shows how the dynamo changes
Sunspots are footpointsof emerging magnetic flux tubes
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Sunspots observed on solar surface
Sunspots observed on solar surface
Schwabe found the 11- year sunspot solar cycle. R = k(10g + f)
The two peaks of solar activity, 1.3 years separated!
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Gleissberg solar cycle in sunspot group number
Gleissberg solar cycle in sunspot group number
Gleissberg found an amplitude modulation of the 11-yearcycle of 80-90 years, as seen by the sunspot group number
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High solar activity and warm climate, low and cold climateHigh solar activity and warm climate, low and cold climate
The solar activity during 5 000 yearsderived from C14 measurments in old trees.
Cold climate in England, Holland during Little Ice Age. Vikings settled down in Greenland during warm Middle Age.
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Possible physical explanation of solar climate relation
Possible physical explanation of solar climate relation
The solar coronal magneticflux has increased with 131%since 1901.
High solar activityCosmic ray decreasesCloud coverage decreasesHigher temperature
Clouds effect climate 100 times more effectively than CO2.
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Solar activity and North Atlantic Oscillation Index
Solar activity and North Atlantic Oscillation Index
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CMEs cause the most severe space weather effects
CMEs cause the most severe space weather effects
• Halo CMEs are most geoeffective
• Mass: 5-50 billion tons
• Frequency: 3.5/day (max), 0.2/day (min)
• Speed: 200-2000 km/s
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Early CME signal in wavelet power spectra of MDI data
Early CME signal in wavelet power spectra of MDI data
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Wavelet power spectra of MDI magnetic mean field
Wavelet power spectra of MDI magnetic mean field
Upper panel shows for 53 CME events.Lower panel shows for times without CMEs.
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Probing CMEs with a solar radarProbing CMEs with a solar radar
15 000 antennas with sensorsand emitters, organized in 100clusters distributed within acircular region of about 350 kmdiameter. Frequency 10-250 MHz(30-1.5m). The total data rate will be 2.5 Tbits/s.
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Modelling and forecasting with KBN
Modelling and forecasting with KBN
• The basis of using neural networks as mathematical models is ”mapping”. Given a dynamic system, a neural network can model it on the basis of a set of examples encoding the input/output behavior of the system. It can learn the mathematical function underlying the system operation (generalize), if the network is properly designed (architecture, weights) and trained (learning algorithm).
• Both architecture and weights can be determined from differential equations which describe the causal relations between the physical variables (the solution of the diff equation is approximated with a RBF). The network (KBN) is then trained with observations.
• The architecture (number of input and hidden nodes) can also be determined from dynamic system analysis (reconstruction of attractor from time series gives dimension).
• Neural network can discover laws from regularities in data (e.g. Newton’s law). If one construct a hierachy of neural networks where networks at each level can learn knowledge at some level of abstraction, even more advanced laws can be dicovered.
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Workshops arranged by usWorkshops arranged by us
Workshops on ”Artificial Intelligence Applications in Solar-Terrestrial Physics” were held in Lund 1993 and 1997.
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Real-time forecasts and warnings based on KBN Real-time forecasts and warnings based on KBN
Solar wind observations with ACE make accurate forecasts 1-3 hours ahead possible.
Solar observations with SOHO make warnings 1-3days ahead possible.
Solar input data
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ESA Space Weather Programme Study
ESA Space Weather Programme Study
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ESA/Lund Space Weather Forecast Service
ESA/Lund Space Weather Forecast Service
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Near and farside solar activity from MDI/SOHO observationsNear and farside solar activity from MDI/SOHO observations
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Latest information on arrival of halo CME at L1
Latest information on arrival of halo CME at L1
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Latest info on forecasts of satellite anomalies
Latest info on forecasts of satellite anomalies
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Latest information on forecasts of Kp, Dst, AE and GIC
Latest information on forecasts of Kp, Dst, AE and GIC
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Test Dst forecastsTest Dst forecasts
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Neural network forecasts of Dst vs other methods
Neural network forecasts of Dst vs other methods
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Regional Warning CentersRWC-Sweden in Lund
Regional Warning CentersRWC-Sweden in Lund
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Forecasts of aurora as SMS or voice messages
Forecasts of aurora as SMS or voice messages
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Where to learn more about usWhere to learn more about us