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The role of REDD+
Patricia Gorin, FAO Rome Vientiane, 30 Aug 2011
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Content
Context and Definitions of REDD+ Importance of REDD+ for UNCCD & SLM REDD+ potential worldwide and for drylands REDD+ eligibility in the carbon markets &
existing projects REDD+ in the international negotiation arena Drivers of deforestation and degradation Phases and financing REDD+
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Content
Context and Definitions of REDD+ Importance of REDD+ for UNCCD & SLM REDD+ potential worldwide and for drylands REDD+ eligibility in the carbon markets &
existing projects REDD+ in the international negotiation arena Drivers of deforestation and degradation Phases and financing REDD+
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Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries
Reducing Emissions from Forest Degradation
ConservationSustainable Management of Forests
Enhancement of Forest Carbon Stocks
Agriculture?Other land-use types?
REDD
REDD+
AFOLU
What is REDD+?
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Tropical Deforestation is not covered by the current climate regime
Why is REDD+ important?
13 million ha per year is deforested contributing up to 17% of global emissions
The Deforestation is largest source of emissions in the developing world (2nd largest source after fossil fuel)
has been long discussed in the definition of CDM rules already, but came back into discussions in 2005
now back on all agendas, on the road to be included into post 2012 UNFCCC measures
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REDD concept
GHG e
miss
ions
Project commissioned
Time
Emission level with project
Business-as-usual scenario
without project= Baseline Emission
Reductions
GHG e
miss
ions
Project commissioned
Time
Emission level with project
Business-as-usual scenario
without project= Baseline Emission
Reductions
GH
G e
mis
sion
s
Project commissioned
Time
Emission level with project
Business-as-usual scenario
without project= Baseline Emission
Reductions
GH
G e
mis
sion
s
Project commissioned
Time
Emission level with project
Business-as-usual scenario
without project= Baseline Emission
Reductions
Project start
Red = baseline, emission level without project
Baseline = Business as Usual Scenario, Scenario in the absence of the project
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REDD+
UN-REDD (UNDP-UNEP-FAO) Program $ 112.5 M
11
22
33
44
55
66
Strategy work areas:
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Content
Context and Definitions of REDD+ Importance of REDD+ for UNCCD & SLM REDD+ potential worldwide and for drylands REDD+ eligibility in the carbon markets &
existing projects REDD+ in the international negotiation arena Drivers of deforestation and degradation Phases and financing REDD+
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REDD+ and UNCCD
• Mandate of the UNCCD: to combat land degradation and desertification, and to promote SLM and rural development in drought-prone areas
• Deforestation in drylands significantly increases the risk of soil degradation and desertification
• Land degradation, particularly unsustainable land management practices and deforestation, are major contributors to the increase in GHG in the atmosphere
• REDD may provide a unique opportunity to fund measures aiming at ongoing degradation of forestlands in arid and semi-arid areas
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Content
Context and Definitions of REDD+ Importance of REDD+ for UNCCD & SLM REDD+ potential worldwide and for drylands REDD+ eligibility in the carbon markets &
existing projects REDD+ in the international negotiation arena Drivers of deforestation and degradation Phases and financing REDD+
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Deforestation trends
Mainly in South America, Southeast Asia, West & Central Africa
Country
Deforested area
(1000 ha/y, average 1990-2005)
Trend
1990-2000 to 2000-05
Brazil 2,822 ↑
Indonesia 1,872 –
Sudan 589 –
Myanmar 467 –
DR Congo 461 ↓
Zambia 445 –
Tanzania 412 –
Nigeria 410 –
Zimbabwe 313 –
Venezuela 288 –
Other 68 countries 3,257 ?
13 M ha deforested annually
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Potential for drylands
Carbon contents of forests vary widely
Payments in carbon markets would be based on carbon content of ecosystems
Cambodia: average 80 t C/ha
Sudan: average 6 t C/ha
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Potential for drylands
• Potential rewards from REDD vary proportionally:
However, these are areas most at risk from land degradation and desertification!
Solutions?
Countries / areas with predominantly arid forests would gain very little from REDD
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Content
Context and Definitions of REDD+ Importance of REDD+ for UNCCD & SLM REDD+ potential worldwide and for drylands REDD+ eligibility in the carbon markets &
existing projects REDD+ in the international negotiation arena Drivers of deforestation and degradation Phases and financing REDD+
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REDD eligibility
Voluntary markets!
VCS: Voluntary Carbon StandardCCX: Chicago Climate Exchange VER+: Verified Emission Reductions Standards
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REDD+ in the Carbon Markets
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REDD+ in the Carbon Markets
Official UN REDD scheme and markets only after 2012
Several large pilot schemes already underway
Voluntary markets for avoided deforestation already exist can generate carbon finance now with pilot projects
Voluntary markets can prepare a country for REDD
Can help set up necessary institutions (e.g., transparent management, monitoring, dedicated government divisions)
Projects could be integrated in national REDD strategy
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Content
Context and Definitions of REDD+ Importance of REDD+ for UNCCD & SLM REDD+ potential worldwide and for drylands REDD+ eligibility in the carbon markets &
existing projects REDD+ in the international negotiation arena Drivers of deforestation and degradation Phases and financing REDD+
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International negociations on REDD+
SBSTA: Subsidiary body for scientific and technological adviceAWG-LCA: Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention
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Cancún
100 B $/ pledged until 2020 ~ $ 10B/year (?)
Reinforced REDD+
Continue to seek a legally binding agreement on second commitment period, South Africa >>> ongoing
Action Framework on adaptation
New programme on technology transfer
Green FundWorld Bank trustee, independent board
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Pilot countries and observators 29 partners countries, from which 9 + 3
pilot countries
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Content
Context and Definitions of REDD+ Importance of REDD+ for UNCCD & SLM REDD+ potential worldwide and for drylands REDD+ eligibility in the carbon markets &
existing projects REDD+ in the international negotiation arena Drivers of deforestation and degradation Phases and financing REDD+
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Deforestation & Degradation Drivers
Remote, marginal areas – Land tenure – Illegal logging – Enforcement / impunity
High opportunity costs of sustainable forest use and conservation relative to other land uses and commodities
Weak governance – Policy coherence / will – Capacities, resources – Contradicting legal frameworks – Transparency / accountability – Ownership, participation
But:
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Content
Context and Definitions of REDD+ Importance of REDD+ for UNCCD & SLM REDD+ potential worldwide and for drylands REDD+ eligibility in the carbon markets &
existing projects REDD+ in the international negotiation arena Drivers of deforestation and degradation Phases and financing REDD+
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REDD+ phasing
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REDD+ finance
3.5 B$ preparatory activities (readiness)
20-35 B$ performance based payments for emission reduction
at least~ 4 B$ / year until 2015(UNFCCC-Informal Working Group on Interim Finance, October 2009)
Estimated need: $ 23-38 B to reduce annual deforestation 25% (3.2 M ha / year):
Oslo REDD+ Partnership: 4.5 B US$ pledged for “fast start” activities
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Mitigation costs
REDD+ is a key component in the UNFCCC negociations towards major financing transactions
REDD+: 2– 4 $/t CO2
Industrial CO2 capture and storage: $ 75-115 / t
REDD+ can be achieved relatively cheaply, could reduce the cost of global action by 40%
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What’s new?
Difference: REDD+ finance needs would Increase substantially the investment in governance and national capacity building
Current “mitigation aid” around 8 B $/year.
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Governance is the main challenge
Of the countries participating in UN-REDD and FCPF, 83% are rated ashaving unstable business climates and 13% are rated as highly risky.
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Possible “first” impacts
Governance– institutional capacities– law enforcement, certainty
Improved policy coherence– Investment climate for agriculture,
energy, infrastructure, environment, forestry, others
Landscape impact– Land use planning– Tenure regulation
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Thanks!
Patricia Gorin
Climate Change and Environment Officer
FAO Rome, Centre d’investissement
Patricia Gorin
Climate Change and Environment Officer
FAO Rome, Investment Centre (TCID)