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The Origin and Evolution of the NBER Working Paper Series
James Poterba, MIT and NBER
July 2014
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The Beginning
Bob Michael seeks an outlet for research from the NBER Center for Economic Analysis of Human Behavior and Social Institutions (December 1972)The Vision: “What I have in mind is simply a new heavy paper cover for manuscripts much like that used by many departments of economics and university research institutes …”Key Design Feature: “… [working papers have] not undergone the full critical review accorded the National Bureau’s studies…”
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The Prototype by H. Irving Forman
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Working Paper #1
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The Launch: June 1973
Paper #1: Finis Welch, “Education, Information, and Efficiency” Paper #2: Barry Chiswick, “Hospital Utilization: An Analysis of SMSA Differences” (published in Explorations)Paper #3: Swarnjit Arora, “Error Component Regression Models and Their Applications” (published in Annals)3 WPs in first month, took 26 months to reach #100About 175 Papers before Martin Feldstein becomes NBER President in April 1977
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The Great Expansion: Post 1978
1978: 55 Papers1981: 221 PapersMilestones:
WP1000: October 1982WP2000: August 1986WP5000: January 1995 (22 Years Post-Launch)WP10000: October 2003WP20000: March 2014
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NBER WPs Today
1110 papers in 2013869 academic institution subscribers, 168 non-academic subscribersApproximately 25,000 recipients of “New This Week” email“Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded…” featureRoughly 5.5 million downloads per year, of which 1.8 million are non-OECD users and 40% are for papers more than three years oldAbout 75% of visitors find NBER papers from a Google search
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Percent of 1st Year Downloads by Days Since Release
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Working Papers by Program, 1972-2014
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Top Working Paper Authors, 1973-2014Author Paper Count
Martin Feldstein 161
Joshua Aizenman 157
Richard Freeman 142
James Poterba 122
Andrei Shleifer 121
James Heckman 121
Michal Bordo 119
Assaf Razin 115
Ed Glaeser 115
Daron Acemoglu 114
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Top Working Paper Authors, 2004-2014Author Paper Count
Daron Acemoglu 81
Joshua Aizenman 68
James Heckman 61
John List 60
Ed Glaeser 58
John Whalley 58
Michael Bordo 53
Shang-Jin Wei 50
Andre Shleifer 44
Olivia Mitchell 44
Rene Stulz 44
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Most Downloaded Papers, 2005-2014Author WP
NumberTitle
Taylor 14631 (2009)
The Financial Crisis and the Policy Response: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong
Reinhart & Rogoff
15639 (2010)
Growth in a Time of Debt
Reinhart & Rogoff
13882 (2008)
This Time is Different: A Panoramic view of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises
Barro 5698 (1996) Determinants of Economic Growth
Reinhart & Rogoff
13761 (2008)
Is the 2007 US Sub-Priime Financial Crisis so Different?
Reinhart & Rogoff
14656 (2009)
The Aftermath of Financial Crises
Shleifer & Vishny
5554 (1996) A Survey of Corporate Governance
Sachs & Warner 5398 (1995) Natural Resource Abundance & Economic Growth
Rajan 11728 (2005)
Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?
B. Hall, Jaffe, & Trajtenberg
8498 (2001) The NBER Patent Citation Data File