© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
The need for a strategic R&D roadmap for active ageing
7- 9 October 2009 - Thessaloniki
Luis M. [email protected]
Hamideh [email protected]
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
MOTIVATION
Many elderly citizens, following retirement, quickly become marginalized and considered as a cost burden rather than a resource, capable of “value creation” in the society
Reality
Population over 60
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
AGE OF RETIREMENT
Expectation of a longer and healthy life !
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
Skill shortage. In some sectors companies are facing the bleak prospect of too many workers taking years of experience, contacts and best practices with them when they retire.
Coaching needs. Startups and SMEs cannot aford market prices for consulting / coaching support.
A critical challenge for society:How to get senior professionals betterintegrated in the socio-economic system?
BALANCED INTEGRATION ...
Two hints ...
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
Existingretired
professionalscommunities
EconomicSystem(SMEs & Startups)
gap
ePALBringing the two worlds together
GAP & BARRIERS
Many retired professionals have already organized themselves in some associations with the purpose to provide voluntary services (e.g. coaching, consulting) to the socio-economic system ....
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
Collaborative Networks paradigm
A New Approach to Active Ageing
NEW APPROACH
Advanced Community Building Collaboration ICT platform
to provide
Supported by
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
WHY COLLABORATIVE NETWORKS?
Socialization- Avoiding loneliness
Access to new opportunities
Sense ofbelonging
Complementing skills
Reliability
Team work experience ?Bossy ?Technology update?Changing behavior & health?
Balance work & leisure
Social stigma against older people?
Understanding of potential?
Access to large pool of skills
Training
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
A GUIDING CONCEPT:A COLLABORATIVE TRI-PARTITE APPROACH
Seniorprofessionals community
Intermediary entities
Start-ups & micro
enterprises
ICT-supported platform
Mediation role
Need for a roadmap !
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
NOW
Smooth active and engaged
ageing
THEN
Broken professional relationships
Reduced involvement in society
Risk of isolation and depression
Inclusion in an organized community
Continued participation in society and economy
Involvement in professional activitiesInvolvement in social activities
Sense of “belonging”
Roadmap
plan of actions
Fast decayingPost-retirement
0
5
10
15
20
25
ROADMAP
Now... what?
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
FOCUS
New ICT to assist active ageing
With a particular focus on senior professionals
... but paying careful attention to the socio-organizational context
Which roadmapping method?
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
1. Charaterize and consolidate the baseline2.a Perceive trends 2.b Design scenarios
3. Elaborate 1st vision statement and instantiations
4. Gap analysis5. Propose a plan of actions
6. Verify the plan of actions7. Perform consultation and refinement
8. Refine vision and plan of actions9. Finalize roadmap chart – timing, resources10. Consolidate roadmap
11. Dissemination & impact creation
0. Define roadmap objectives & scope
Classical scientific method Adopted roadmapping method
Roadmapping method
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
RESEARCH ROADMAPPING METHOD
TRE event
TRE event
EC Policy docOther docs
Expert’sKnowledge
...
EC Policy doc Other docs
Expert’sKnowledge
...
Senior associations
surveyExperts’
knowledge...
Senior associations
surveyExperts’
knowledge ...
BaselineReport
TRE eventTRE event
Characterize and consolidate baseline
Perceive trends
Elaborate1st vision statement & instantiations
TRE event
TRE eventConsortiumMeetings
Consortium Meetings
TRE event
TRE eventTRE eventTRE event
TRE event
TRE eventConsortiumMeetings
ConsortiumMeetings
TRE event
TRE eventTRE eventTRE event
TRE event
TRE eventConsortiumMeetings
ConsortiumMeetings
RelatedProjects
...
RelatedProjects
...
LiteratureSurvey
...
LiteratureSurvey
...
Trends&
Scenarios
1st Vision+
Instances
DAE eventDAE event
Stakeholderscontributions
...
Stakeholderscontributions
...
TRE event
TRE event
ProposePlan of actions
Gap Analysis
Implementation mechanisms
Verify proposed actions
Finalize roadmapChart - PlanTiming etc
TRE eventTRE event
TRE event
TRE eventConsortiumMeetings
Consortium Meetings
BaselineReport
1st Vision+
Instances
GapanalysisReport
Implemen-tation
mechanisms
TRE event
TRE eventConsortiumMeetings
Consortium Meetings
TRE event
TRE eventCBE eventsCBE events
1st DraftRoadmap
2ndDraftRoadmap
TRE event
TRE eventConsortium
Meetings
ConsortiumMeetings
DAE eventDAE event
Consolidation and
dissemination
CBE eventCBE event
TRE event
TRE eventConsortium
Meetings
ConsortiumMeetings
DAE eventDAE event
FinalRoadmap
FinalReport
Consultationand
Refinement
Design scenarios
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
Support Group(main stakeholders)
CONSORTIUM
Uninova
SkillSECOT
WLPUvA
+
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
Focused workshops
Regional workshops
CORE MEMBERS & SUPPORT GROUP
ExistingSenior Networks
Consortia ofrelated projects Policy
DecisionMakers
Social careDecisionMakers
OtherEconomic
Actors
FocusedResearch Groups
Affective computingElderly behaviorOthers
Coordinationteam
Mobilizingrelevant
stakeholders
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
BASELINE
Identification and characterization of the current situation regarding the involvement of senior professionals in socio- economic activities after retirement.
Where are we?Which main needs?How can ICT help?Which solutions and approaches are emerging?...
SurveysFocused workshopsMeetings, Interviews
Literature surveyRelated projects
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
ASSOCIATIONS OF SENIOR PROFESSIONALS
Contributed: 29 Countries: 14
Survey:
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
OTHER TYPES OF PRACTICES
Eligibility and regulation
Centralizedregulation
Local(for each university)
GrantAutomaticPortugal
University of California,
USA
Slippery Rock University,
USA
(automatic)Jubilee
Brazil
Mexico
Emeriti
Volunteer
Emeriti
Jubilee Professors
Time Bank
Free Lancers
Keeping links with former employer
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
CURRENT MECHANISMS ...
What are the options?
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
2. Collaboration support services, including teams’
formation
3. Support for user-generated knowledge content
2.1 Management systems for VBEs and PVCs: still limited use in real practices. Wide availability of CSCW tools.
3.1 Configurable document management platforms becoming available.3.2 Creation of a culture of content sharing (e.g. YouTube).3.3 Generation of business content: still limited & interoperability problems.3.4 Unsolved issues: IPR, ethical issues, ownership and protection.
1. Theoretical foundation for technological developments
1.1 Good progress on conceptual models for collaborative networks.1.2 Need to adapt/extend CN results to the senior professionals area.1.3 Research needed on “soft issues”: trust, collaboration readiness, etc.
5. Easily adaptable and customizable user interfaces
6. Tools supporting the process of value creation
5.1 Importance of adaptive interfaces & user interface customization.5.2 Automatic adaptation to different output channels.
6.1 Developments on value systems for CNs: no practical tools yet.6.2 Lack of sound models & tools for IPR and risk management in CN.
4. “Configure yourself” based philosophy infrastructure
4.1 First cases of user configuration of his/her interface &functionalities.4.2 Need creation of libraries of components and proper interoperable reference architectures.
7. Affective computing and context aware enriched
environments
7.1 New research area: focus on perception/recognition of emotions.7.2 Human affects & emotional experiences linked to human learning.7.3 Usage of emotions to regulate virtual environments - promising.
8. Contractual and cooperation agreements & negotiation
8.1 Contract models/e-contracting – still research issue.8.2 Some negotiation prototypes, but not yet practical.8.3 Some e-institutions but not integrated in collaboration platforms.8.4 Recent trend – negotiation wizards.
9. Marketing and brokerage services
9.1 Service oriented approaches – popular but not easy.9.2 SMEs & seniors context: not very SOA-skilled, lack of proactive services and templates library
consultancy services.10. Networking models for
elderly communities10.1 Some examples of virtual communities exist. Lack of effective intermediation role.10.2 Current communities: limited team work, brokerage, collaboration.
11. Security and ethical / privacy support
11.1 Mechanisms & tools for safe communications: Building blocksavailable, but difficult to integrate. Need for reference architectures coping with leisure / social / professional activities.
BASELINE – TECHNOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
VISIONING
Vision building is not a mechanism to foresee the future !
A mechanism to define the plausible future state that we desire to reach.
A vision is a deeply held picture of where a person, a group of people, an organization, or a society, wants to reach in the future.
SurveysWorkshops with visionaries
Meetings, InterviewsLiterature surveyRelated projects Drivers,
Trends
Scenario thinking
[Davis, 2002]
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
SCENARIOS
Senior professionals association
Elderly person volunteering
services
Virtual Volunteering: cyber-grandparents
Identifying Problems &providing solutions
A virtual well of knowledge and
expertise
Specialized & adaptive IT systems
for seniors
A service market portal
Remote working &virtual workers
Tri-partite company
Multi-actor network
Knowledgeable jubilees
Paid work involving senior professionals
Associations of retired professionals: voluntary work
Associations of retired professionals: brokerage and
launching
Service markets
Tri-partite collaboration
Keeping the link to former employer
Second job
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
1st VISION OF ePAL
Identifies the required areas of research & development, related to technological, social, and organizational perspectives
Identifies the requirements from other social bodies (i.e. governmental and other regulatory bodies)
Identifies the potentials for creation of new opportunities in the European market and society
1st ePAL environment Vision - for Active Ageing Society
Main desired facets:
”
“ Building a strong and cohesive social fabric to embodyactive senior professionals, as an important part of the
European silver economy
Well founded reference model of the environment, specifying its:endogenous (structural, componential, functional, and behavioural) and exogenous(market, support, societal, constituency) elements, and their interlinks
Well established technological infrastructure, support tools/servicesSupport for social responsibility and adaptation of suitable ethical codeEstablished organizational infrastructure, supporting economic and societal involvement through government policies and actions Established national/international regulations for involvement of senior professionals in market/society and related legal frameworks
In the coming decade, a comprehensive paradigm will emerge in response to Europe’s ageing population and its inevitable skill shortage, that extends the balanced active life of senior professionals, facilitating the use of their talents and expertise, and thus facilitating value creation from these mature assets, for the benefit of bothEurope’s economy as well as the European society as a whole.
Core ideology:
Envisioned future:
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
ePAL VISION INSTANTIATIONS
Identifies the required areas of research & development, related to technological, social, and organizational perspectives
Identifies the requirements from other social bodies (i.e. governmental and other regulatory bodies)
Identifies the potentials for creation of new opportunities in the European market and society
1st ePAL environment Vision - for Active Ageing Society
Main desired facets:
”
“ Building a strong and cohesive social fabric to embodyactive senior professionals, as an important part of the
European silver economy
Well founded reference model of the environment, specifying its:endogenous (structural, componential, functional, and behavioural) and exogenous(market, support, societal, constituency) elements, and their interlinks
Well established technological infrastructure, support tools/servicesSupport for social responsibility and adaptation of suitable ethical codeEstablished organizational infrastructure, supporting economic and societal involvement through government policies and actions Established national/international regulations for involvement of senior professionals in market/society and related legal frameworks
In the coming decade, a comprehensive paradigm will emerge in response to Europe’s ageing population and its inevitable skill shortage, that extends the balanced active life of senior professionals, facilitating the use of their talents and expertise, and thus facilitating value creation from these mature assets, for the benefit of bothEurope’s economy as well as the European society as a whole.
Core ideology:
Envisioned future:
In the coming decade, the ICT collaboration platforms and tools will be developed as an easy to use enabler of new approaches for continuation of the active involvement of elderly people in the socio-economic system. As such novel infrastructures and intelligent functionalities will act as a catalyst of new organizational forms, supporting effective management of geographically disperse communities of retired professionals, and facilitating the active participation in the socio-economic activities, as an extension of the human capabilities towards fitted participation.
Main desired facets:Advanced collaboration support services, including (virtual) teams’ formation and managementDevelopment of collaboration ontology supporting variety of stakeholdersSupport for user-generated knowledge content“Configure yourself “based philosophy infrastructureEasily adaptable and customizable user interfacesAffective computing and context aware enriched environmentsSupport for establishment of trust among stakeholdersTools supporting the process of value creationNovel contractual and cooperation agreements, including negotiation supportAdvanced marketing and brokerage servicesNew networking models for elderly communities’ involvement with the socio-economic systemSecurity and ethical / privacy support
1st ePAL environment Vision –Technological Perspective
In the coming decade, extending active professional life (ePAL) will be a high priority strategy in addressing Europe’s aging population. The social infrastructure will mature to accommodate demographic shifts through the creation of mechanisms to support active involvement of elderly people in the silver economy. Attitudes in society will evolve towards positive acceptance of elderly people as a value-creating pool of talent, thereby creating opportunities to support and promote active aging. Both senior and young professionals will derive greater benefit from the exchange of knowledge and experience. As the social environment evolves, new support mechanisms will arise to sustain an aging but more active and inclusive population.
Main desired facets:New mechanisms to enhance positive understanding and perception in the society regarding the value of abilities, skills and experience of senior professionals in the economyMotivating mechanisms for senior professionals to join CASPsMechanisms to support cross-cultural interactions among senior professionals as well as to the active labor forceMechanisms to support a balanced economical benefits sharing among the entire society including senior professionalsNew mechanisms for social networking to help articulate the collective needs of seniors across national boundaries Mechanisms to support cross generational interaction between seniors and younger citizens; fomenting inter-generational solidarity and understanding within the EUMechanisms to capitalise on the increased sense of trust and understanding which comes through leveraging seniors' social capital.
1st ePAL environment Vision –Social Perspective
In the coming decade, the primary organisational stakeholders – governments; intermediates; businesses – will adopt positive and proactive policies and approaches that enable senior professionals to continue their active life and generate income that compensates for pension shortfalls and facilitates a valuable contribution to Europe’s economy.
Main desired facets:Employment and retirement policies will change to provide greater flexibility for seniors to continue as economic actors Global regulations and polices will change to encourage the participation of businesses in collaboration with senior professionalsThe knowledge and skills of seniors will be harnessed to generate wealth and stimulate innovation amongst European businessesNew forms of intermediate organizations will provide highly efficient brokerage that will help seniors engage with businesses in EuropeThere will be significant long-term funding – from both public and private sectors - and the political drive to support new forms of senior associations and other intermediate brokersSeniors will have access to the (re)-training services they need to facilitate their continued professional lifeNew organizational cultures will positively embrace relationships between senior professionals and pre-retired (active) professionals
1st ePAL environment Vision –organizational Perspective
Technologicalperspective
Socialperspective
Organizationalperspective
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
GAP ANALYSIS APPROACH
SWOT analysis positive and negative factors affecting the global ePAL vision are categorised as strengths, weaknesses (in regard to the capabilities within the EU), opportunities and threats (those influences not directly controlled by the EU)
Influence graphs
Gap analysis – identifying and characterizing the differences between the practices identified in the Baseline and those desired improvements defined as part of the Vision.
Baseline
Vision statement & its instantiationsFurther workshops
& literature
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
GAP ANALYSIS - EXAMPLE
S1 Good progress in conceptual models for collaborative networks (although mostly focused on industry)
S1 Good progress in conceptual models for collaborative networks (although mostly focused on industry)
L5 There is an increasing trend to focus on a techno-centric approach for ICT R&D, which hinders proper understanding of the critical issues of the socio-technical systems needed to support active ageing
L5 There is an increasing trend to focus on a techno-centric approach for ICT R&D, which hinders proper understanding of the critical issues of the socio-technical systems needed to support active ageing
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
ORGANIZATIONAL FORMS
Surveys / Baseline
Vision statement Further workshops,
Interviews & literature
Complementary to the baseline, vision, and gap analysis, focusing on the relationships among the different classes of stakeholders involved in the development of socio-economic activities.
Stakeholders & roles characterizationRelationships characterizationExisting and emerging organizational forms
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
ORGANIZATIONAL FORMS - EXAMPLESCharacterization of stakeholders
Senior Professional
(SP)
Small Company
Examples oforganizational models
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
VT1. Advanced collaboration support services, including (virtual) teams’ formation and management
VT2. Development of collaboration ontology supporting variety of stakeholders
VT3. Support for user-generated knowledge assets
VT4. “Configure yourself “based philosophy infrastructure
VT5. Easily adaptable and customizable user interfaces
VT6. Affective computing and context aware enriched environments
VT7. Support for establishment of trust among stakeholders
VT8. Tools supporting the process of value creation
VT9. Novel contractual and cooperation agreements, including negotiation support
VT10. Advanced marketing and brokerage servicesVT11. New networking models for elderly communities’
involvement with the socio-economic systemVT12. Security and ethical / privacy support
ACTIONS PROPOSITION
In the coming decade, the ICT collaboration platforms and tools will be developed as an easy to use enabler of new approaches for continuation of the active involvement of elderly people in the socio-economic system. As such, novel infrastructures and intelligent functionalities will act as a catalyst of new organizational forms, supporting geographically disperse communities of retired professionals. Furthermore technology will enable seniors to leave their legacy, expand their human capabilities, and facilitate their active participation in the socio-economic system.
Vision
Establish formal conceptual models for people’s professional life cycle and the support environment for active ageing.
Develop and integrate self-adaptive and configurable technology solutions in ICT environments to enable customized involvement of seniors.
Develop ICT collaboration platforms for communities of senior professionals that are enhanced by affective computing, context awareness, and trust establishment.
Design and develop support collaborative tools and systems to facilitate value creation.
Develop environments that empower seniors to leave a legacy that capitalizes on their personal / professional experience and is usable and transferable to the society.Develop approaches that discover patterns and model “the evolution of senior professionals’ interests and their involvement in the socio-economic system” and “the behavior and emotional health of senior professional networks”.
ACTIONS
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
Baseline
Gap analysis
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
ACTIONS – SOCIAL PERSPECTIVE
New mechanisms to enhance positive understanding and perception of in society regarding the value of the abilities, skills and experience of senior professionals in the economy.
Motivating mechanisms for senior professionals to join CASPs.
Mechanisms to support cross- cultural interactions among senior professionals as well as the to active labor force.
Mechanisms to support a balanced economic benefits sharing among the entire society including senior professionals.
New mechanisms for social networking to help articulate the collective needs of seniors across national boundaries.
Mechanisms to support cross generational interaction between seniors and younger citizens ; fomenting inter-generational solidarity and understanding within EU.
Mechanisms to capitalize on the increased sense of trust and understanding which comes through leveraging seniors’ social capital.
VS1
VS2
VS3
VS4
VS5
VS6
VS7
VISION – Desired facetsPromote socio-economic studies that identify the unique value senior workers bring to the workplace, investigate new ways of senior workers interacting with the socio- economic system and communicate findings to employers and to society and as whole.
Design/develop mechanisms for skills/talent identification and improvement that assess acquired experience, provide career transition advice and deliver skills-enhancement to maximize the potential of seniors.
Establish the “European Senior Space” to promote dialogue and consensus around issues of technology, culture and socio-economic participation and to develop a single, powerful voice for senior professionals across Europe.
Investigate the barriers and potentials for cross generational interaction and collaboration between senior professionals and younger people, and fund/promote technology development programmes that support and facilitate this interaction/collaboration.
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
ACTIONS
Investigate and promote new models of working practices and related reward and taxation models for senior professionals, taking account of issues of work- life balance and aging well.
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
ACTIONS – ORGANIZATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Employment and retirement policies will change to provide greater flexibility for seniors to continue as economic actors.
Global regulations and policies will change to encourage the participation of businesses in collaboration with senior professionals.
The knowledge and skills of seniors will be harnessed to generate wealth and stimulate innovation amongst European businesses.
New forms of intermediate organizations will provide highly efficient brokerage that will help seniors engage with businesses in Europe.
There will be significant long-term funding – from both public and private sectors - and the political drive to support new forms of senior associations and other intermediate brokers.
Seniors will have access to the relevant services, including training, which they need to facilitate their transition between their working life and retirement to continue their active professional life.
New organizational cultures will positively embrace relationships between senior professionals and pre- retired (active) professionals.
VO1
VO2
VO3
VO4
VO5
VO6
VO7
Identify and assess current national and European policy and legislation relevant to active participation of seniors in the socio-economic system and recommend new approaches that eliminate barriers and promote and support active aging.
Investigate new mechanisms that forge mutually beneficial relationships between seniors and the socio-economic system including novel interaction models that facilitate collaboration between organizations and their retiring employees.
Investigate and establish new roles, governance rules and organizational forms for communities of active senior professionals to promote inter- and intra-community collaboration and to create new opportunities for member engagement.
Characterize and design new roles and modes of operation for intermediate organizations, both public and private, that provide brokerage and assistance to better facilitate integration and collaboration between senior professionals and the socio-economic system.
O1
O2
O3
O4
O6
ACTIONS
Define new programmes and organizational practices that prepare for and guide the successful transition of senior professionals from full employment to active retirement, taking account of issues of gender, profession and local context.
Characterise and quantify the uniqueness of what senior professionals can offer the socio-economic system (mature experience, compensation flexibility, etc.) and identify new channels to harness these resources in order to generate wealth and stimulate innovation amongst European businesses, thus supporting the ‘silver economy’.
O5
VISION – Desired facets
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
ACTIONS – TECHNOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE
Advanced collaboration suppor t services, including (virtual) teams’ formation and management.
Development of collaboration ontology supporting variety of stakeholders.Support for user-generated knowledge assets.
“Configure yourself” based philosophy infrastructure.
Easily adaptable and customizable user interfaces.
Affective computing and context aware enriched environments.
Support for establishment of trust among stakeholders.
Tools supporting the process of value creation.
Novel contractual and cooperation agreements, including negotiation support.Advanced marketing and brokerage services.
New networking models for elderly communities’ involvement with the socio-economic system.
Security and ethical / privacy support. VT12
VT1
VT2
VT3
VT4
VT5
VT6
VT7
VT8
VT9
VT10
VT11
Establish formal conceptual models for people’s professional life cycle and the support environment for active ageing.
Develop and integrate self-adaptive and configurable technology solutions in ICT environments to enable customized involvement of seniors.
Develop ICT collaboration platforms for communities of senior professionals that are enhanced by affective computing, context awareness, and trust establishment. Design and develop support collaborative tools and systems to facilitate value creation.
Develop environments that empower seniors to leave a legacy that capitalizes on their personal / professional experience and is usable and transferable to the society.
Develop approaches that discover patterns and model “the evolution of senior professionals’ interests and their involvement in the socio- economic system” and “the behavior and emotional health of senior professional networks”.
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
ACTIONSVISION – Desired facets
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
T3: Develop ICT collaboration platforms for communities of senior professionals enhanced by affective computing, context awareness, and trust establishment.
T3.1 - Develop advanced functionalities and systems for management of communities of senior professionals.
T3.2 - Develop affections / emotions management systems for communities of senior professionals.
T3.3 – Design and support governance systems for communities of senior professionals.
T3.4 - Develop trust building management systems for communities of senior professionals.
Example:
DETAILED ACTIONS – TECHNOLOGY
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
Other eventsOther events
0
5
10
15
20
25
<10% ~50% >90%
0
5
10
15
20
25
<10% ~50% >90%
0
5
10
15
20
25
<10% ~50% >90%
VERIFICATION & CONSENSUS BUILDING
Integration & Refinement
Integration & Refinement
Rest of the world
-Australia-Canada-USA-Brazil-Mexico-Switzerland
1st Vision Statement
Preliminary plan of actions
Porto
Maastricht
Sevilla
Madrid
London
Feedback from CBEs
Revised Roadmap
Baseline
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
Agreement with vision
CONSENSUS BUILDING EVENTS
6 Events> 120 stakeholders
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
Action S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Difficulty
T1-formal conceptual models
x x ~ x ~ x x x Very Hard
T2-self-adaptive & configurable technology solutions ~ x ~ ~ x ~ x x ~ Very Hard
T3-collaboration platforms
~ x ~ x x ~ x ~ x x x ~ Moderate
T4-collaborative tools and systems
~ x x x x x x ~ x ~ x ~ x x x ~ Hard
T5-empower seniors to leave a legacy ~ x x ~ ~ x x x x ~ Very Hard
T6-discover patterns and model behavior ~ x ~ ~ ~ ~ Very Hard
Legend
(level of importance) Not important Important x Moderately
important ~
ACTIONS VERIFICATION
Coverage of the vision ?
Feasibility ?
Type of action?- R&D- Trial- Deployment
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
EXPECTED FINAL LOOK OF ROADMAP
Elaboration of final version of roadmap
including implementation plans
Final consensus building
& dissemination
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
www.epal.eu.com
WEBSITE & NEWSLETTERS5 Languages
-English-Portuguese-Russian-Spanish-Swahili
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
CONCLUSIONS
Extending active professional life becomes an important need as the expectancy of a longer healthy life increases
ICT can be an important enabler in facilitating the creation of collaborative networks involving not only (virtual) communities of seniors, but also potential recipients of their services and intermediary entities
Given the sensitivity of the area, sustainable R&D efforts arerequired to be carefully designed through roadmapping
ePAL is elaborating a strategic roadmap towards the implementation of a new vision for active ageing
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
European ePAL initiative aims at developing a strategic research roadmap:
Introducing new approaches and ways to create:
Actively contributing senior professional communities
- Developing a support framework for leveraging elderly’stalents and expertise
- Developing approaches to create value by elderly for thebenefit of the economy and society
- Supporting a balanced transition towards retirement
AIM
Instead of taking some ad-hoc steps to help the situation …
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
TSP
CASP (Community of Active Senior Professional)
Open Universe of senior professionals
Characteristics?Reference model?Actors?Roles?…
SP(Senior professional)
CASP (Community of Active Senior Professional) constitutes an association of senior professional individuals that are largely autonomous, geographically distributed, and potentiall y heterogeneous in terms of their: capabilities, offered capacities, culture, system of values, etc., but sharing their main compatible and/or common goals of increasing their active professional life in the society and/or market, through co-working with others in Teams of Senior Professionals supported by computer networks, under the slogan of: “Together Everyone Achieves More!”.
TSP (Team of Senior Professionals) is a collaborative network of individuals configured and established within the CASP in response to opportunities in the society and market that are in need of their wisdom and/or knowledge assets that they can offer, which as a consequence supports the retired professionals remaining professionally active.
SP (Senior professional) is a retired / retirng professional who becomes a member of CASP in order to increase his/her chances of staying active and involved in the socio-economic system, and perhaps also through getting involved in potential TSPs established through the CASP.
NEW COLLABORATIVE STRUCTURES
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
ePAL
•Science and research roadmaps •Cross-industry roadmaps •Industry roadmaps •Technology roadmaps •Product roadmaps •Product-technology roadmaps •Project and issue roadmaps
TYPES OF ROADMAPPING
"A 'roadmap' provides an extended look at the future of a chosen field of inquiry composed from the collective knowledge and imagination of the brightest drivers
of change in that field."[Galvin 2002]
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
TOWARDS A VISION for ePAL
1. Technological driver
2. Social driver
3. Organizational driver
Technology &Support services
Human factors &Social aspects
Economy &Government policies
Advances in ICTs
Increasing need of proven experience
Changing attitude towards working at
old age
Demographic change
Today
Future scenario
Advances in ICTs
Increasing need of proven experience
Changing attitude towards working at
old age
Demographic change
Today
Future scenario
TOWARDS A VISION
DRIVERS& TRENDS
SCENARIOS
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
1. TECHNOLOGICAL DRIVER 1.a Technology sub-driver
Trend Positive / negative aspects + Technology, required to work within the modern economy, is becoming
affordable and more widely available to everybody, including senior professionals.
1. Availability of pervasive and inexpensive computing
- As more and more people buy and familiarize themselves with computer technology, those who have not done so become more marginalized. Today, senior professionals are a high risk group in terms of lack of IT knowledge.
+ EU has assigned funds from the community budget of member states and private sector to the development of ICT, with the target of improving the quality of life of the elderly people and helping them to be active and independent.
2. Increase in development of technology to support elder people + Fear of elderly people about new technology is decreasing through
introduction of easy to use and intuitive technologies. This motivates elderly people to use such technologies.
+ User generated content of Web2.0 eases the involvement of seniors in future market / society activities 3. Pervasive use of
the Web - User generated environment of Web 3.0, and especially the possibility of intelligent adaptation is still in primitive stages, while very much needed to assist the older people with their use of computers.
- Need to build mechanisms into the technology to understand user reactions and allow users to customize it. The current level of technology is off-putting for older people; embedded technologies are needed to facilitate computational perception of individual emotions: the technology should be invisible.
+ Affective computing can make the process of communicating through computers closer to the human needs.
4. Increase attention on affective computing
+ Affective computing can facilitate more effective inter-generational and inter-cultural communication.
+ Cloud computing promises to be a new technology in which tasks are assigned to a combination of connections, software and services accessed over the Internet. It should allow users to access super-computer level power. Therefore, senior professionals can have an access to the powerful computers/systems at home.
5. Introduction and deployment of Cloud Computing
- This is new technology that is still immature and need further improvements. One example is the necessary bandwidth to support such technology.
2. SOCIAL DRIVER 2.a Human factors sub-driver Trend Positive / negative aspects
+ Ageing of the population will accelerate the emergence of new-organizational and collaboration forms involving senior professionals.
+ Many pre- and post- retired professionals express that they are happy to continue working beyond traditional retirement age to fill skill gaps as well as mentor younger professionals.
1. Demographic shift
- Younger workers are becoming an increasingly scarce resource, therefore less Tax money is generated.
+ Employment dynamics are changing from people competing for jobs to organizations competing for people with skills.
- If free acquisition of knowledge and experience in the market increases then organizations might become reluctant to employ paid professionals.
2. Influence of change in labour markets
- As workers fully retire at an older age, younger workers become increasingly frustrated with the lack of advancement and promotion opportunities.
+ Those approaching and past retirement age are now recognised as important economic actors in some sectors and are increasingly valued for their experience and skills in the workplace. 3. Chang in the
“age” perception + Seniors are increasingly used to fill skills gaps within the EU, particularly in
supporting the SME community and within mentoring programmes. + Life expectancy is increasing and thus people can live longer and work
longer than in the past. + Improvements in Social support systems and Public Health Systems have
important effects on the life and well-being of seniors. - Demand on quality of life for older people is increasing, and thus the requests
from the social support systems also increase.
4. Improvement of Social support and Public Health
- More Pensions are needed to support the increased expectancy of life. + There is significant research activity in the area of older workers and their
needs. 5. Progress on identification of elderly needs - There is still an enormous lack of differentiated knowledge on the current
needs of elderly people. + Retired people are increasingly in need of making money. Increasing number
of older workers are partially due to the current pension laws and rules in certain regions of Europe (such as east Europe), which necessitates a continuation of paid employment.
6. Increase in senior worker’s motivations
+ There is a growing sense of motivation amongst senior professionals to remain active and thus to participate in economic activities.
7. Importance of being independent + The number of older people who want to remain independent is increasing.
+ Increase in opportunities for seniors to retrain or update their existing knowledge and expertise.
+ Some new education programs offer (smaller) continuous units, making lifelong learning more accessible and achievable to older people is being considered.
8. Obsolescence of traditional education systems
- Need for a support platform for education programmes for older people, and a course on how to manage the second phase of careers is rising.
2. SOCIAL DRIVER 2.b Social aspects sub-driver Trend Positive / negative aspects
1. Mentality change + Society is placing a higher value on contribution of elderly people in all fields: family, social, cultural, economic, etc.
+ Many emerged Social Networks appear to be self-organizing, i.e. appearance of random social communities working in an organized way.
+ Online communities allow individuals to assume new/different roles. 2. increase in number of Social Networks
- Need to find ways to manipulate/revitalize networks when members’ activities slow down.
- Need to identify and characterize the new roles that seniors can play in society.
3. Obsolescence of traditional roles of seniors in the society + Greater engagement between social/voluntary organizations and seniors.
- When companies reduce staff, generally seniors are more at risk of being dismissed as their salaries are generally higher than younger workers and they have less future projection as a long term employee.
4. Continuation of social discrimination in companies
- Seniors have great difficulties in searching for a work place.
5. ICT-based media is still aimed at young people
- Seniors struggle with images which are portrayed in the ICT-based media, aimed at young people. Seniors are not recognized as potential user group.
6. Pressure on Social Security system
- Social security systems are coming under increasing pressures to provide anything more than basic support for the needs of seniors.
7. Increase in number of projects providing opportunities for elder
+ There is an increasing trend that supports more flexible working environments (like tele-work) which offer a great number of opportunities.
3. ORGANIZATIONAL DRIVER 3.a Economy sub-driver Trend Positive / negative aspects 1. Overload on pension
+ Generation of government income through taxes for supporting seniors is becoming inadequate, which might mean increasing state retirement age. This will also open door for senior professionals.
2. Economy opening to elderly people
+ More companies and social organizations are now open to using experience/services provided by retired professionals.
+ Scarcity of highly skilled human resources is increasing and as a result Pre/Post retired workers find out that their skills are highly valued. 3. Scarcity of experts
and human resources - There is a higher expectancy on seniors to contribute for free to the economic welfare of the EU.
+ In difficult economic climates where companies have less money to spend on consultancy services, the knowledge transfer services provided either free or at low cost by senior volunteer organizations are increasingly valued. 4. Recession & world
state of economy + Although there are still issues around discrimination towards older workers (identified by groups such as Age Concern), a reduction in number of employment opportunities associated with an economic downturn will disproportionately affect seniors.
5. Need to assist developing countries
+ More opportunities arise for networks of senior volunteers to send their members to work on humanitarian and development projects.
6. Elderly people in need of making personal income
+ Private savings are becoming the main income source supporting most elderly, but these are not enough any more.
7. Economy in need of Virtual Volunteering
+ Virtual volunteering is being taken up by seniors and growing fast due to the flexibility that it brings.
3. ORGANIZATIONAL DRIVER 3.b Government policies sub-driver Trend Positive / negative aspects 1. New polices encouraging the use of ICT for elderly
+ The main policy areas and challenges related to ageing, addressed at the EU level, are those in which the ICT-based applications are maximized.
+ Governments are increasingly encouraging and supporting the involvement of older professionals in the (silver?) economy through policies and initiatives, especially considering the baby boomer generation.
+ Increasingly government policies focus on reducing the burden on the national pension system. Therefore, governments are increasingly legislating to reform retirement age which will keep senior professionals at work for longer time.
2. Government policies supporting retirees
- Convincing the private sector of the benefits of retaining older workers may be a difficult task.
3. Retirees’ rights protection
+ Organizations supporting the rights of elderly, are becoming more active and even plan to take governments to court if needed, in order to protect the social security support and their rights to work after retirement.
4. New policies to maintain seniors active
+ The issues of Active Ageing and inclusion appear increasingly on the political agenda in the European Union.
5. New programs for transition and integration between generations
+ There are increasing number of new international programs focused on transition of the current state into an integration between generations.
1. TECHNOLOGICAL DRIVER 1.b Support services sub-driver
Trend Positive / negative aspects + More tools emerge in the market for collaboration - There is a lack of more advanced user-friendly supporting tools for co-
working as well as contract negotiation tools, trust building tools, support for privacy and ethical issues.
1.New tools supporting collaboration among SMEs and / or individuals - Training is required for general elderly to use the tools.
2.Availability of easy to use ICT tools
+ Some new basic tools are being developed as freeware with easy to use interfaces (e.g. email, chat, etc.), which can be easily used by senior professionals
+ The costs associated with information management are decreasing and Information can be accessed in an easier and faster way.
3. Wide availability of tools for information management
- The improper management of information can create serious problems, so it requires careful attention by elderly.
1. TECHNOLOGICAL DRIVER 1.b Support services sub-driver
Trend Positive / negative aspects + More tools emerge in the market for collaboration - There is a lack of more advanced user-friendly supporting tools for co-
working as well as contract negotiation tools, trust building tools, support for privacy and ethical issues.
1.New tools supporting collaboration among SMEs and / or individuals - Training is required for general elderly to use the tools.
2.Availability of easy to use ICT tools
+ Some new basic tools are being developed as freeware with easy to use interfaces (e.g. email, chat, etc.), which can be easily used by senior professionals
+ The costs associated with information management are decreasing and Information can be accessed in an easier and faster way.
3. Wide availability of tools for information management
- The improper management of information can create serious problems, so it requires careful attention by elderly.
Trends
Positive and negative aspects (contribute to development of the
roadmap)
Sub-drivers
IDENTIFICATION OF TRENDS
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
GAP ANALYSIS
Helpfulto achieving the vis ion
Harmfulto achieving the vis ion
Internally
originated
Europ
eanUnion
leve
lExternally
originated
Surroun
ding
environm
ent
S trengths
Opportunities
Weaknesses
Threats
• S trength 1• S trength 2• ...
• Opportunity 1• Opportunity 2• ...
• Weakness 1• Weakness 2• ...
• Threat 1• Threat 2• ...
Vis ionVis ion
S ynthes is ofB as eline
S ynthes is ofB as eline
GAP Analys is
Technolog ic alpers pec tive
L imitations
S trengths
L imitations
S trengths
L imitations
S trengths
Instantiation(P roblem S plitting)
S oc ialpers pec tive
Organizationalpers pec tive
Current phase:
V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 V7
S1 Positive Influence
S2 HighS3 ModerateS4S5
L1
L2 Negative Influence
L3 HighL4 ModerateL5L6
Influence map
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
FIRST ACTION PLANS
TechnologicalPerspective
SocialPerspective
OrganizationalPerspective
Short term Medium term Long term
ActionO1
ActionO4
Action O2
ActionO5
ActionO3
TIME Action
T1
Action T4
Action T5
Action T3
Action T6
ActionT2
Action S1
Action S4
ActionS2
ActionS5
ActionS3
Suggest plan of strategic R&D actions and their timing
Taking into account the baseline, the vision, and the gap analysis !
© L. M. Camarinha-Matos, H. Afsarmanesh 2009
Policyrecommendations
OPERATIONALIZATION
Roadmap
R&D projects
R&D projects
Trials & Take-ups Trials &
Take-ups
Accompanyin g measures Accompanyin g measures
European Commission: R&D, AAL, CIP
National & local initiatives
During ePAL Operationalization phase: after ePAL