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The Myth of Influence
@LutzFinger
@LutzFinger
Co-‐Founder
Researcher & Speaker
Book Author
Quiz Please raise your hand, if….
• Would you choose a doctor because friends recommended it?
• Would you choose a computer program because friends recommended it?
• Would you have gone to a movie because your friends recommended the movie?
Success Stories
● 100 influencers in social media ● Offered Test Drives and “broadcasted” their comments ● YouTube videos related to this campaign generated over 6.5 million views
… and was it successful? ● Ford received more than 50,000 requests for informaQon ● 10,000 cars were sold in the first six days
Source: "Demys.fying social media," McKinsey Quarterly, April 2012 Picture: YouTube channel
Awareness Trigger Intention
Influencer
The Marketer Dream
Logo by OCAL & clker.com
The Marketer Dream
Logo by OCAL & clker.com
The Marketer Dream
Logo by OCAL & clker.com
Since 1955
● opinion leaders (Katz and Lazarsfelt 1955) ● influenQals (Merton 1968) ● Influencers (Rand 2004) ● e-‐fluenQals (Burson-‐Marsteller 2001) ● hubs (Rosen 2000) ● Mavens & connectors (Gladwell 2000)
Source: Amazon.com
Website
Law of the Few Social epidemics (are)… driven by the efforts of a handful of exceptional people (Malcom Gladwell, 2000, The Tipping Point)
Influence can be local
Source: h3p://www.doh.wa.gov/
Why? ● By Chance? ● Influence? ● Socio-‐Economical?
Yahoo! Go
Source: Sinan Arala, Lev Muchnik, and Arun Sundararajan (2009): PNAS Vol 106, no 51
IntroducQon 2007 QuesQon:
• friends influence friends to adopt • friends with similar backgrounds and tastes adopt (homophily)
Sinan Arala et.al.: • Analyzed 27.4 million users • 89 million disQnct relaQonships • 14 bn page views • 3.9 bn messages • Over 5 month
Influence comes from many
Source: Sinan Arala, Lev Muchnik, and Arun Sundararajan (2009): PNAS Vol 106, no 51
FracOo
n of Ado
pters v
s. Non
-‐ado
pters
Number of Adopters in Network
• Network externality are the main driver for Influence -‐ contagious • Homophily is accounQng for 50% of the adopQon effect
Influence depends on the Topic
Source: Kevin Lewisa, Marco Gonzaleza and Jason Kaufman (2012): PNAS Vol 109, no 1
Not all Topics are: • 4 years • 1001 Students on Facebook • tradiQonal Self-‐reported Data • How did taste Spread
Source: orgtheory.net
The Myth of Influencer
● Influence can be local
● Influence is done by many (like peer pressure) ● Influence might be in reality homophily
● Influence depends on topic
13
BUT why…. Aja Dior M. omgg, my aunt .ffany who work for whitney houston just found whitney houston dead in the tub. such ashamed & sad :(
45 min
Or why….
6 month
Source: TED talk by Kevin Allocca
15
BroadcasQng ≠ Influence
Awareness ≠ IntenQon
How to MEASURE broadcast
● Reach ● AcQvity ● Engagement
16
Youth Olympic Games
17
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Athletes Role Models
Young Ambassadors
Young Reporters
YOG Ambassador
AcOvity versus Response
Response
PromoQng YOG Social Media AcQvity
● Reach ● AcQvity ● Engagement
Source: Fisheye Analy.cs
CRM Strategy
● Re-‐Check your Influencer Strategy: ─ It might be local ─ It might be more based on peer pressure ─ It might not fit all of your products
● Look out for the Broadcaster ─ Most reach measure will work ─ Be sure that you measure engagement ─ Stay away from acQvity
Intent
Awareness
Source: Fisheye Analy.cs
Thanks
If you liked it. Follow me on Twi3er @LutzFinger.
Book by O’Reilly Media To be published in Spring 2013
