Download - The In’s and Out’s of St. Louis Population Movements: A 2003 Update Public Policy Research Center
The In’s and Out’s of St. Louis Population Movements: A 2003 Update
Public Policy Research CenterUniversity of Missouri – St. Louis
April 28, 2005
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
*
Migration Analysis: The Movement of People and Income
Presentation Outline:* Regional Summary and Update* Comparison of 2003 with Previous
Analysis* Selected County Level Trends* Top 15 Inter-Regional Destinations
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
Migration AnalysisIRS Data– Tax returns– No. of Returns– No. of Exemptions– Match records between tax years: #SSN– Change in County of residence
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
Reasons for Moving: CPS March 1999-2000
Family-Related Reasons
26%
Work-Related Reasons
16%
Other Reasons6%
Housing-Related Reasons
52%
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTERReasons For Moving: CPS March 1999-2000 Percent
Family-Related Reasons 26.3
Change in Marital Status 6.2
To establish own household 7.4
Other family reason 12.7
Work-Related Reasons 16.2
New job/Job transfer 9.7
To look for work/lost job 1.3
Closer to work/easier commute 3.5
Retired 0.4
Other job-related reasons 1.2
Housing Related Reasons 51.6
Wanted to own home/not rent 11.5
New/better house/apartment 18.5
Better neighborhood/less crime 4.4
Cheaper housing 5.5
Other housing reasons 11.7
Other Reasons 6.0
Attend/leave college 2.3
Change of climate 0.7
Health reasons 1.1
Other reasons 1.8
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
Intra-Region Inter-Region Total
Clinton 180 39 219
Jersey 117 40 157
Madison 534 -224 310
Monroe 499 25 524
St. Clair -779 -51 -830
Franklin 633 -280 353
Jefferson 2,314 -557 1,757
Lincoln 1,436 -24 1,412
St. Charles 4,625 720 5,345
St. Louis -5,361 -816 -6,177
City of St. Louis -4,691 -72 -4,763
Warren 493 69 562
Total -1,131 -1,131
2003 Net Population Migration
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
2003 Intra-Region Net Population Migration
117
180
493
499
534
633
1,436
2,314
4,625
-5,361
-4,691
-779
-6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000
St. Louis
City of St. Louis
St. Clair
Jersey
Clinton
Warren
Monroe
Madison
Franklin
Lincoln
Jefferson
St. Charles
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
2003 Inter-Region Net Population Migration
25
39
40
69
720
-72
-51
-224
-280
-557
-816
-24
-1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800
St. Louis
Jefferson
Franklin
Madison
City of St. Louis
St. Clair
Lincoln
Monroe
Clinton
Jersey
Warren
St. Charles
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
Intra-Region Inter-Region Total Intra-Region Inter-Region Total
Clinton 90 -26 64 180 39 219
Jersey 112 -39 73 117 40 157
Madison 489 -377 112 534 -224 310
Monroe 464 -4 460 499 25 524
St. Clair -1,202 -173 -1,375 -779 -51 -830
Franklin 912 -155 757 633 -280 353
Jefferson 2,119 -607 1,512 2,314 -557 1,757
Lincoln 864 48 912 1,436 -24 1,412
St. Charles 4,919 214 5,133 4,625 720 5,345
St. Louis -3,091 -1,993 -5,084 -5,361 -816 -6,177
City of St. Louis -6,173 -436 -6,609 -4,691 -72 -4,763
Warren 497 -29 468 493 69 562
Total -3,577 -3,577 -1,131 -1,131
11 Year Average (1993-2003) 2003 Net Population Migration
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
Intra-Region Inter-Region Total
Clinton $2,892 $552 $3,444
Jersey $1,228 $502 $1,730
Madison $12,085 -$10,387 $1,698
Monroe $14,304 $1,010 $15,314
St. Clair -$17,650 -$10,620 -$28,270
Franklin $23,199 -$2,770 $20,429
Jefferson $49,807 -$18,425 $31,382
Lincoln $24,877 $422 $25,299
St. Charles $145,908 $13,143 $159,051
St. Louis -$181,943 -$116,483 -$298,426
City of St. Louis -$84,737 -$10,370 -$95,107
Warren $10,030 $1,281 $11,311
Total -$152,145 -$152,145
2003 Net Income Migration
(In Thousands of Dollars)
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
2003 Intra-Region Net Income Migration
$1,228
$2,892
$10,030
$12,085
$14,304
$23,199
$24,877
$49,807
$145,908
-$17,650
-$84,737
-$181,943
-$200,000 -$150,000 -$100,000 -$50,000 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000
St. Louis
City of St. Louis
St. Clair
Jersey
Clinton
Warren
Madison
Monroe
Franklin
Lincoln
Jefferson
St. Charles
(In Thousands of Dollars)
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
2003 Inter-Region Net Income Migration
$422
$502
$552
$1,010
$1,281
$13,143
-$2,770
-$10,370
-$10,387
-$10,620
-$18,425
-$116,483
-$140,000 -$120,000 -$100,000 -$80,000 -$60,000 -$40,000 -$20,000 $0 $20,000
St. Louis
Jefferson
St. Clair
Madison
City of St. Louis
Franklin
Lincoln
Jersey
Clinton
Monroe
Warren
St. Charles
(In Thousands of Dollars)
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
County-to-County Net Population Migration 2003
Franklin Jefferson Lincoln St. Charles St. Louis City of St. L. Warren
Clinton 0 0 0 0 -9 -3 0
Jersey 0 0 0 0 -48 0 0
Madison 1 -15 24 -8 -304 -23 0
Monroe 0 -37 0 37 -177 -65 0
St. Clair -22 80 22 43 60 -107 0
Franklin - -211 14 50 -456 -45 -6
Jefferson 211 - 5 76 -1,766 -811 -1
Lincoln -14 -5 - -971 -361 -6 -33
St. Charles -50 -76 971 - -5,593 -170 365
St. Louis 456 1,766 361 5,593 - -3,442 149
City of St. Louis 45 811 6 170 3,442 - 19
Warren 6 1 33 -365 -149 -19 -
Total 633 2,314 1,436 4,625 -5,361 -4,691 493
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
County-to-County Net Population Migration 2003
Clinton Jersey Madison Monroe St. Clair
Clinton - 0 -24 0 -144
Jersey 0 - -51 0 -18
Madison 24 51 - 28 -312
Monroe 0 0 -28 - -229
St. Clair 144 18 312 229 -
Franklin 0 0 -1 0 22
Jefferson 0 0 15 37 -80
Lincoln 0 0 -24 0 -22
St. Charles 0 0 8 -37 -43
St. Louis 9 48 304 177 -60
City of St. Louis 3 0 23 65 107
Warren 0 0 0 0 0
Total 180 117 534 499 -779
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
County-to-County Net Income Migration 2003
(In Thousands of Dollars)
Franklin Jefferson Lincoln St. Charles St. Louis City of St. L. Warren
Clinton $0 $0 $0 $0 $127 $39 $0
Jersey $0 $0 $0 $0 -$760 $0 $0
Madison -$91 -$387 $277 -$155 -$6,517 -$512 $0
Monroe $0 -$949 $0 $732 -$5,870 -$1,497 $0
St. Clair $178 $699 $232 $749 $3,072 -$2,226 $0
Franklin - -$2,972 $53 $533 -$20,477 -$173 -$76
Jefferson $2,972 - -$70 $2,736 -$41,856 -$14,453 $227
Lincoln -$53 $70 - -$16,009 -$7,878 $12 -$510
St. Charles -$533 -$2,736 $16,009 - -$159,756 -$3,176 $5,610
St. Louis $20,477 $41,856 $7,878 $159,756 - -$62,617 $4,645
City of St. Louis $173 $14,453 -$12 $3,176 $62,617 - $134
Warren $76 -$227 $510 -$5,610 -$4,645 -$134 -
Total $23,199 $49,807 $24,877 $145,908 -$181,943 -$84,737 $10,030
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
County-to-County Net Income Migration 2003
(In Thousands of Dollars)
Clinton Jersey Madison Monroe St. Clair
Clinton - $0 -$324 $0 -$2,734
Jersey $0 - -$33 $0 -$435
Madison $324 $33 - $1,149 -$6,206
Monroe $0 $0 -$1,149 - -$5,571
St. Clair $2,734 $435 $6,206 $5,571 -
Franklin $0 $0 $91 $0 -$178
Jefferson $0 $0 $387 $949 -$699
Lincoln $0 $0 -$277 $0 -$232
St. Charles $0 $0 $155 -$732 -$749
St. Louis -$127 $760 $6,517 $5,870 -$3,072
City of St. Louis -$39 $0 $512 $1,497 $2,226
Warren $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total $2,892 $1,228 $12,085 $14,304 -$17,650
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
St. Louis County Net Population Migration: 1981-2003
-9,000
-8,000
-7,000
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,0001981
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Total Intra-Region Inter-Region
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
St. Charles County Net Population Migration: 1981-2003
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Total Intra-Region Inter-Region
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
City of St. Louis Net Population Migration: 1981-2003
-9,000
-8,000
-7,000
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
Total Intra-Region Inter-Region
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
St. Clair County Net Population Migration: 1981-2003
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Total Intra-Region Inter-Region
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
Madison County Net Population Migration: 1981-2003
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Total Intra-Region Inter-Region
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
St. Louis County
Inter-Regional Out-Migration 2003
Income
State County Persons (In $ 000's)
IL Cook County 570 $18,127
AZ Maricopa County 381 $15,070
CA Los Angeles County 363 $10,390
KS Johnson County 334 $11,614
MO Boone County 321 $7,929
MO Jackson County 276 $6,306
MO Greene County 260 $6,017
TX Tarrant County 258 $7,860
TX Harris County 251 $8,046
CA San Diego County 208 $6,550
MO St Francois County 183 $3,269
TN Shelby County 182 $5,142
IL Du Page County 175 $7,221
MO Cape Girardeau Count 170 $3,150
TX Dallas County 170 $6,093
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
St. Louis County
Inter-Regional Population In-Migration 2003
Income
State County Persons (In $ 000's)
IL Cook County 633 $21,803
MO Boone County 352 $7,417
CA Los Angeles County 342 $15,116
MO Jackson County 288 $8,290
CA San Diego County 271 $6,147
KS Johnson County 255 $9,249
MO Cape Girardeau Count 247 $5,096
MO Greene County 247 $4,968
AZ Maricopa County 243 $7,521
TX Harris County 221 $4,932
TX Dallas County 187 $5,970
MO St Francois County 178 $3,293
IL Du Page County 167 $8,317
TN Shelby County 165 $3,992
MI Oakland County 147 $5,235
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
St. Charles County
Inter-Region In-Migration 2003
Income
State County Persons (In $ 000's)AZ Maricopa County 146 $3,808
MO Boone County 133 $2,434
MO Jackson County 130 $2,980
KS Johnson County 103 $2,641
TX Tarrant County 96 $2,750
MO Greene County 95 $2,028
MO Pike County 88 $1,281
MO Montgomery County 82 $1,495
IL Cook County 81 $2,367
TX Collin County 72 $2,017
CA Los Angeles County 64 $1,346
TX Harris County 63 $1,453
FL Hillsborough County 63 $1,971
MO Cape Girardeau Count 62 $1,096
MO Camden County 57 $2,118
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
St. Charles County
Inter-Region Out-Migration 2003
Income
State County Persons (In $000's)KS Johnson County 149 $4,103
MO Jackson County 149 $3,883
MO Boone County 140 $2,990
IL Cook County 131 $3,394
MO Greene County 116 $2,704
AZ Maricopa County 103 $2,652
IL Du Page County 83 $2,076
MO Cape Girardeau Count 83 $1,669
TX Harris County 81 $1,781
KS Sedgwick County 78 $1,811
TX Tarrant County 73 $2,368
CA San Diego County 68 $1,215
CA Orange County 66 $1,316
MO Montgomery County 65 $1,142
CA Los Angeles County 64 $1,310
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
City of St. Louis
Inter-Region In- Migration 2003
Income
State County Persons (In $ 000's)IL Cook County 192 $5,378
MO Boone County 118 $2,028
MO Jackson County 103 $1,921
TN Shelby County 77 $753
CA Los Angeles County 77 $2,907
TX Dallas County 75 $1,442
MO Cape Girardeau County 64 $1,143
MO Greene County 58 $1,162
MO St Francois County 53 $684
CA San Diego County 53 $1,153
TX Harris County 50 $916
GA De Kalb County 50 $584
IL Sangamon County 49 $1,056
WA King County 46 $1,265
MO Cole County 45 $534
WI Milwaukee County 42 $573
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTERCity of St. Louis
Inter-Region Out- Migration 2003
Income
State County Persons (In $ 000's)
IL Cook County 203 $6,457
MO Boone County 107 $1,376
MO Jackson County 94 $1,757
MO St Francois County 84 $1,322
CA Los Angeles County 83 $2,147
FL Pinellas County 81 $649
AZ Maricopa County 76 $1,894
TX Dallas County 71 $1,877
CA San Diego County 59 $1,920
TN Shelby County 54 $914
TX Harris County 53 $1,163
MO Cape Girardeau County 50 $714
MN Hennepin County 47 $995
TN Davidson County 47 $1,243
MO Greene County 45 $644
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
St. Clair County
Inter-Region In-Migration 2003
Income
State County Persons (In $ 000's)
HI Honolulu County 146 $1,912
TX Bexar County 144 $2,888
IL Cook County 119 $2,174
IL Sangamon County 105 $1,968
IL Jackson County 103 $1,945
CO El Paso County 95 $1,634
IL Washington County 88 $1,751
AL Montgomery County 81 $1,193
CA Solano County 77 $1,552
FL Okaloosa County 75 $1,278
WA Pierce County 73 $1,500
NV Clark County 65 $1,404
NE Sarpy County 64 $1,237
CA San Diego County 61 $790
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
St. Clair County
Inter-Region Out-Migration 2003
Income
State County Persons (In $ 000's)IL Randolph County 218 $3,250
TX Bexar County 159 $2,640
IL Cook County 128 $2,890
CO El Paso County 126 $2,144
IL Washington County 110 $1,981
IL Sangamon County 89 $1,074
AZ Maricopa County 81 $1,633
VA Fairfax County 79 $1,944
FL Hillsborough County 62 $1,115
IL Jefferson County 62 $1,073
TN Shelby County 60 $1,148
HI Honolulu County 58 $991
CA Solano County 57 $1,389
AL Autauga County 54 $1,064
FL Okaloosa County 51 $1,062
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
Madison County
Inter-Region In-Migration 2003
Income
State County Persons (In $ 000's)
IL Macoupin County 520 $8,707
IL Bond County 178 $3,038
IL Sangamon County 160 $2,844
IL Cook County 132 $2,662
IL Montgomery County 66 $1,187
IL Greene County 60 $1,169
IL Marion County 59 $792
CA San Diego County 51 $720
IL Jackson County 50 $875
IL Champaign County 45 $732
IL Macon County 43 $836
IL Washington County 42 $746
IL Jefferson County 41 $486
IL Mclean County 39 $781
CO El Paso County 38 $651
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
Madison County
Inter-Region Out-Migration 2003
Income
State County Persons (In $ 000's)
IL Macoupin County 513 $7,797
IL Bond County 215 $3,511
IL Cook County 141 $3,075
IL Sangamon County 89 $1,172
AZ Maricopa County 79 $1,680
IL Calhoun County 67 $1,202
IL Montgomery County 65 $1,103
IL Du Page County 56 $1,321
CA San Diego County 55 $1,041
IL Greene County 50 $822
IL Mclean County 44 $861
IL Champaign County 41 $636
IL Fayette County 38 $519
MO Boone County 37 $1,595
IL Jackson County 36 $591
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
Per Capita Income Annual Percentage Change: 1993-2003
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03
St. Charles St. Louis St. Louis city Region
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
Non-Migrant Per Capita Income
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Clinton $13,474 $13,534 $14,229 $15,195 $15,962 $17,073 $17,959 $18,929 $19,976 $20,188 $20,393Jersey $12,702 $13,259 $13,765 $14,732 $15,626 $16,493 $17,190 $17,903 $19,374 $19,246 $19,376Madison $15,411 $15,478 $16,480 $17,188 $17,885 $18,821 $20,050 $21,221 $21,755 $22,023 $22,094Monroe $16,076 $16,624 $17,590 $18,226 $19,242 $20,572 $21,849 $23,288 $24,417 $24,685 $24,415St. Clair $14,141 $14,157 $14,840 $16,022 $16,969 $17,709 $18,932 $19,476 $20,557 $20,589 $20,644Franklin $13,101 $13,334 $14,248 $15,346 $16,164 $17,104 $18,182 $19,586 $20,491 $20,362 $20,553Jefferson $13,797 $13,575 $14,417 $15,535 $16,167 $17,101 $18,117 $19,093 $20,010 $20,277 $20,399Lincoln $12,109 $12,304 $12,942 $13,725 $14,621 $15,512 $16,140 $17,307 $18,338 $18,559 $18,791St. Charles $16,610 $17,104 $18,309 $19,148 $20,102 $21,458 $22,859 $24,331 $25,786 $25,464 $25,514St. Louis $21,466 $21,826 $22,653 $24,516 $26,084 $27,795 $29,571 $31,990 $34,160 $32,261 $30,991St. Louis city $13,930 $14,064 $11,209 $14,274 $14,859 $15,122 $15,695 $16,967 $17,850 $18,108 $18,063Warren $12,374 $12,599 $13,430 $14,682 $15,573 $16,922 $17,528 $19,045 $19,625 $19,989 $19,298
Total $17,244 $17,464 $17,799 $19,708 $20,795 $21,982 $23,317 $24,962 $26,401 $25,688 $25,207Pct. Change 1.3 1.9 10.7 5.5 5.7 6.1 7.1 5.8 -2.7 -1.9
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03
Clinton 0.4 5.1 6.8 5.0 7.0 5.2 5.4 5.5 1.1 1.0Jersey 4.4 3.8 7.0 6.1 5.5 4.2 4.1 8.2 -0.7 0.7Madison 0.4 6.5 4.3 4.1 5.2 6.5 5.8 2.5 1.2 0.3Monroe 3.4 5.8 3.6 5.6 6.9 6.2 6.6 4.8 1.1 -1.1St. Clair 0.1 4.8 8.0 5.9 4.4 6.9 2.9 5.6 0.2 0.3Franklin 1.8 6.9 7.7 5.3 5.8 6.3 7.7 4.6 -0.6 0.9Jefferson -1.6 6.2 7.8 4.1 5.8 5.9 5.4 4.8 1.3 0.6Lincoln 1.6 5.2 6.1 6.5 6.1 4.0 7.2 6.0 1.2 1.3St. Charles 3.0 7.0 4.6 5.0 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.0 -1.2 0.2St. Louis 1.7 3.8 8.2 6.4 6.6 6.4 8.2 6.8 -5.6 -3.9St. Louis city 1.0 -20.3 27.3 4.1 1.8 3.8 8.1 5.2 1.4 -0.2Warren 1.8 6.6 9.3 6.1 8.7 3.6 8.7 3.0 1.9 -3.5Total 1.3 1.9 10.7 5.5 5.7 6.1 7.1 5.8 -2.7 -1.9
*
Migration Analysis: Conclusions* Decentralization Continues* Inter-Regional Net Out-Migration
Declines * St. Louis County Net Out-Migration to
All Counties, but City and St. Clair County* Inter-Regional Losses Centered in St.
Louis County* City Net Out-Migration Improving* St. Charles Net In-Migration has
Leveled Off;* St. Charles Inter-Regional In-
Migration Increasing * Inter-regional Migration is Firm
Specific Connection
PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER