Download - The Future of technology….& the end of government as we know IT? Peter Cochrane ConceptLabs CA
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The Future of technology….& the end of government as we know IT?
Peter CochraneConceptLabs CA
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Disruptive technologies - Example
A homework assignment for a 14 year old!
You may wish to close your eyes
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Where have we come from…
…and where are we heading?
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Satanic Mills
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Fordism…•mass production•mass automation•increased efficiency•much more for much less•deskilling•fewer employed•a new techno-elite•more administration•more non-essential people
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Growing hierarchies•centralized control•less risk taking •focus on cost cutting •less adaptable •prone to massive failure
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Virtual business• no hierarchies
• death of geography
• fluctuating assets
• information intensive
• highly adaptable
• rapid birth - death
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Machine takeover•very few people•humans augmentation•AI & AL takeover •adaptable within limits•prone to over production
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Industry migrating to geographically dispersed networks and clusters…
…the globalisation of everything…
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The co-location=collaboration myth
~10%~2%
~0.4%
Likelihood ofcollaboration
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And governments?•change is very hard!•lagging on all fronts•limited public purse•not really a business •no competition•old minds •growing hierarchy•growing bureaucracy•losing control•losing influence
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People are doing…
whatever it takes to win!
They will no longer wait for slowcompanies or government - they are now far more inclined to ignore the law and just do it!
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Three types of workerPart-time
Projectfocusedcontractor
Core
•Agiltiy•Costefficiency
Lifestylepursuit
•Skilladvantage
•Innovation
CareerSecurity
•Skillutilisation•Goal focus
ExpressionAutonomy
Individual benefits
Business benefits
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Challenges for the individual•understand company•understand business•keep skilled•track technology demand •share commitment•no back up/support •work in virtual teams•use latest media•balance demands•feast to famine cycles
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BUT - some peoplejust don’t get IT!
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We have come a long way!
We are such linear thinkers…We don’t cope well with multiple dimensionsWe confuse data and informationWe store the useless and misplace the useful We need knowledge but create a fog of confusion Networks and networking might just save us!
BUT
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So innocent looking…
y= ex
…it is compound interest on steroids!
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Time
Rate of change
Today
Technology
SocietyPeople
CompaniesBusiness
Legal SystemsGovernments
It aint about $ - it is about time
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A future of man, woman & machine...
1940 20101950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.1110
10101010
101010101010
10101010
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
10
9
11
12
13
15
17
1000xVacuum tubes Transistors
Integrated circuitsMicro-processors
Relays
UNIVAC ScalarENIAC
IBM 704
Stretch
LARC
CDC1604
CDC 6600
CDC 7600
ILLIAC IVCray -2
Cray C-90
Cray-1Cray X-MP
Cray Y-MP
CM-2Delta
CM-5
TeraflopHuman Brain
100,000Teraflopdesktop
SUPERCOMPUTERS
Vector
Multiprocessors
Massively parallel
FLOPS
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time
Technology$
The ‘S’ Curve
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time
Technology$
The ‘S’ Curve Continuum
CassetteTape
CD
DVD
Tape
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Moore’s Wall
ThermionicTube
Transistor
IC1
IC2
IC3
IC4
IC5
ICn
1915 46 59 2010 2025
3D ICsMolecularQuantumGeneticBiologicalOptical Computing
NewSensorsNetworksSoftwareLifeformsIntelligences
Log Scale
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Telecoms Capacity & Demand
1011
109
107
105
103
101
transmissioncapacity
(bit/s)
1840 1880 1920 1960 2000 2040
capacity used
capacity available
WDM
optical fibre
coax PCM
coax carrier
pair-cable PCM
pair-cable carrier
radio
telegraph
telephone
DWDMPONS
Analogue Digital Analogue Digital An/Dig
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Information Growth
Library ofAlexandriadestroyed
Printing
Electronicstorage
1000,000
TBytes
100,000
10,000
1,000
100
10
1
0.1
100 300 1000 2000 Year
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The fountof all
knowledge
Becomingspecialised
Highly specialised
All knowledgethrough
technology?
1800 1900 TODAY 2000 +
No one knows anything anymore...
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If only it was all this simple...
Markets
Va
riab
les
Sources of return
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Industry Dimensions
Competition
Regulation
Globalisation
Segmentation
CustomersTechnology
Convergence
Organisation
Strategy
Social
Economic
Political
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Axiom 1: Mutually exclusive...
ProcessDefinitionControlHierarchy
Adaptable - Fleet of FootReliability
EfficiencyBrittleness
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Axiom 2: Mutually exclusive...
Security, Constraints, Irrationality,Lack of understanding, Rumour…
Risk
Productivity
WealthGenerationCreativityFreedom
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Not so Axiomatic… ...Exponential Failure
Analogue Digital
Brittleness Is it brittle?
Is it visible?
I only see itwhen it fails!
Sudden, cliff Like failures
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Exponentially more for exponentially less...
1890 1990
Cost/Bit Bit/s
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Rec
ycle
Trash
Consumer
Trash Consumer
Distribution ManufactureRaw
MaterialsRETAIL
Ecosystem
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Rec
ycle
Trash
Consumer
Trash Consumer
Distribution ManufactureRaw
MaterialsRETAIL
Ecosystem
B-B B-B B-B
B-CC-CC-BMobile
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Linear Channel
Adam Smith…et al3/4D Thinking
Finite Source
Finite Sink
Limited materialsproductionroutes to marketfinancecommunication
Limited populationappetitesexpectationfinancecommunication
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TodaynD - NonLinear Thinking
Unlimited (materials?) - bitsproductionroutes to marketfinancecommunication
Unlimited populationappetitesexpectationfinancecommunication
Infinite Sink
Infinite Source
NonLinear
Channel/s
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The Future is Chaos!
HierarchicalStructured
Self- Organisedand Chaotic
2000s1980s
Telegraph Telephone Internet ? Intranets
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A connected world is chaotic….
00.00 06.00 12.00 18.00 24.00
0
100
50
200
150
Hour of the Day
ActiveSite Visitors
Net visitors come in packs….
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The dotcom bust!
• Greed• Stupidity• Naivety• The old economy torpedoed the new• No bandwidth in the local loop!
But this is but a glitch - the internet is very young - and so are mobile phones, PDAs, PCs, wearables, things & people on line etc
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3G Carnage!
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If we ran a company....
Company
Raw Materials
ComponentsModules
Direct Customers
Sub-ContractsDealerships
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If we ran a company....
Company
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Get the utilisation up... ...get the costs down...
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But many companies do this....
Unit
Raw Materials
Direct Customers
Let’s create expense by internal constraints... ...and an internal only market...
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Many companies...don’t do this...
Co
Co
Co
Co
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
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They do this...
Co
Co
Co
Co
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
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And worse....they stove pipe...
Co
Co
Co
Co
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
CoNetwork
Solutions
Operations
Systems
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If only more companies looked.. like this...
Network
Solutions
Operations
Systems
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
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From the few to the many...Concentrated
Expertise & SkillDistributedIgnorance
Technology
Telephone Operators Dial & ButtonsComputing Mainframe PCCopiers Corp Centre Office XeroxPrinting Hot Metal Offset/Laser Jet
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From the few to the many...Concentrated
Expertise & SkillDistributedIgnorance
Technology
N
$
~Nn
Ab
ility
to
Com
pet
e
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Where is the energy?
Dispersed - ChaoticAdaptable Fleet of Foot
Internalised Externalised
Technology
Centralised Control - HierarchyInflexible & Ponderous
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Recent experience…
Fixed Cellular LAN WLAN Phone Phone 802.11
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NO• WLAN• LAN• 2nd Phone Line• Socket Standard
Getting on-line in the EU
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The future - think beyond IT!Artificial IntelligenceArtificial LifeRoboticsMaterialsGeneticsProteonicsNonoTechNon-linear opticsQuantum computinget al
More & fasterchange than everbefore in ourhistory - and itwill be (slightly!)out of control
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The really big issues?Ageing populations - fewer workersHealth & Care - less money more demandEducation & Training - the wrong modelLogistics - can we afford to keep travellingEnergy - we are eating the planetSecurity - a 13th century enemy?Defence - just who & where is the enemy?Globalization - inevitable but hard to doCan government keep up/be effective?Can government get out of the way?Can social research ever get relevant?Can technology help?
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Net Spectrum
100%
0%
HierarchyControl
Traffic
Random Bursty Chaotic
100%Telephone Internet Parasitic
ResilienceLatencyFlexibilityReliabilityScalability
Internet
Parasitic
Economy
Static Mobile
0%
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What do we need?Less government and controlMore freedom of communicationMore freedom of movementMore freedom of actionMore freedom of trade Lower hierarchiesMore start-up companies to replace the oldA better educated & more adaptable populationMore self sufficiency
In order to create vibrant economies!
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Thank you,
cochrane.org.ukconceptlabs.net