Download - The Future of Japan - and Our World
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The Future of Japan
and
The Future of Our World
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Guy Dauncey
Dawn
Sea
The power of our visionビジョンの力
The power of our vision
そんなに強くなる必要があります
than the power of our fears私たちの恐怖の電力より
The power of our vision
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When you THINK about
The Future of Our World
what do you FEEL?
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EXCITEMENT
UNCERTAINTY
HOPE
WORRY
FEAR
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What is your vision of the future?
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What is ourREALITY?
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実在
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We have come a long way from this….
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To this …
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but…
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Smithore Dreamstime.com
We have also come to this…
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Live Rainforest
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Live Rainforest
Dead Rainforest
What went wrong?
How did this…
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Gross
Domestic
Product
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国内総生産
turn into this? …
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Gross
Depletionof the
Planet
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惑星のグロス枯渇
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Do you think there are too many people
on the Earth?
YES NO ?
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Do you think we consume too much?
YES NO ?
消費する
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
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地球規模の気候変動
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How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
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How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
1. Earth has a very thin atmosphere, which protects us from being
roasted by day and frozen by night.
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30 kilometres
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How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
2. Two important “greenhouse gases” trap heat in the atmosphere
and keep us warm: water vapor and
carbon dioxide
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How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
3. When there is too little water vapor and carbon dioxide, Earth goes into an Ice Age.
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How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
When there is too much, Earth warms, ice melts, and sea levels rise.
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How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
4.
ICE AGES
4. Carbon dioxide (blue) and temperature (red) have tracked each other very closely over the last 700,000 years.
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How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
4.
5. The gasoline that fuels the world’s transportation comes from ancient fossil carbon.
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How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
4.
5. The gasoline that fuels the world’s transportation comes from ancient fossil carbon.
Guy Dauncey 2015Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
4.
5. The gasoline that fuels the world’s transportation comes from ancient fossil carbon.
Guy Dauncey 2015Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
4.
5. The gasoline that fuels the world’s transportation comes from ancient fossil carbon.
Guy Dauncey 2015Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
4.
5. The gasoline that fuels the world’s transportation comes from ancient fossil carbon.
Guy Dauncey 2015Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
4.
5. The gasoline that fuels the world’s transportation comes from ancient fossil carbon.
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
6. The coal that generates much of the world’s electricity comes from ancient fossil carbon.
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85% of all this energy comes from fossil fuelsGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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As we burn the fossil fuels…
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7. When we burn fossil fuels, their ancient carbon escapes into the atmosphere
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How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
8. When we burn forests, their carbon escapes, entering the atmosphere.
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How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
When we destroy forests, their carbon also escapes, entering the atmosphere.
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9. All this extra carbon is trapping too much heat, and causing
global warming.
Burning fossil fuels anddestroying Earth’s forests
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
10.
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The last time the world was 3C warmer, the sea level was 25 metres higher
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2 metres
10 metres
18 metres
25 metres
If all Earth’s polar ice melted 70 metres sea-level rise
92 metres
70 metres
All of Japan’s nuclear plants are at sea level
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Torrential downpoursand floods
If we don’t change,33% of the Earth will be affected
by extreme drought by 2100
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California Wildfire, August 2015
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British Columbia Forest FireJuly 2015
If global warming exceeds 1.6°C up to
31% of Earth’s species
will be committed to extinction,
having nowhere to go to escape the rising heat
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Do you sometimes feel that it’s all getting
out of control?
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?
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So what shall we do?
BCSEA 2014 BCSEA 2014 www.bcsea.org www.bcsea.org
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Two Possible Futures
The Ocean海洋
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Boyan Slat
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William KakwambaMalawi, Africa
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エネルギー問題
JAPAN’SENERGY PROBLEM
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Coal 21%
Oil 46%
Gas 15%
Nuclear 15%
= 1,000 Terawatt hours
a year
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%
97% of all Japan’senergy
is imported
$$
$$
$$$$
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Uranium 15%
Coal 21%
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%
USA 75%France 11%Britain 10%
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Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%
?
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath
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www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath/green_path_japanese.pdf
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How serious 切実
is Japan’s Energy Problem?
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How serious 切実
is Japan’s Energy Problem?
1. Very serious
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How serious 切実
is Japan’s Energy Problem?
1. Very serious2. I don’t know
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How serious 切実
is Japan’s Energy Problem?
1. Very serious2. I don’t know3. Not serious
JAPAN’S ENERGY
SOLUTIONS解答
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We need…
A 100% Shift to Renewable
Energy
Martinedegraaf Dreamstime.com
How much energy does Japan need?
How much energy does Japan need?
1,000 terawatt hours a year
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1,000 terawatt hours a year
千テラワット時間今年
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Where will Japan’s Green Electricity
come from?
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Efficient Appliances
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100 100100 watts
25 watts
5 watts
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LED lights only use
1 to 5 watts
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How much energy can Japan SAVE?
200 to 500 terawatt hours a year
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SOLAR ENERGY
More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour than humans use in a year.
Solar energy travels at the speed of light 1,000 million kilometres an hour
Sun to Earth in 8 minutes 19 seconds
For 30,000 years, we harvested the Sun’s energy through firewood
For 300 years, we have been harvestingThe Sun’s energy through fossil fuels
It was fossil fuelsthat launched the Industrial Age,
and the modern world.
It is solar energy expressed through fossil fuels
that has made advanced engineering, solar PV and electric vehicles possible.
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The Sun is rapidly settingon the Age of Fossil Fuels.
The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the essential
LAUNCH RAMPfor the Solar Age
500,000 yearsFirewood
300 yearsFossil Fuels
A billion yearsSolar Energy
Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
And with every passing year, solar technology will improve
and fall in price.
Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years
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Solar radiation
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Solar-powered homesYoshikawa, near Tokyo
Ota Solar City, Japan
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Solar Stadium, Taiwan
Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan
Solar RailwayParis
to Amsterdam
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Price of Solar Cells1977: $761981: $241991: $92001: $62011: $1.252013: $0.74
Mass production = falling prices
Solar Economics in Japan, 20204 kW PV¥3 kwh
Cost per kW $1,600 4 kW $6,400 ¥700,000
25 year savings $38,50025 year profit $32,000 ¥3,000,000
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Thin film solar薄膜太陽電池
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Thin film solar
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How much SOLAR energy could Japan produce?
72 to 300 terawatt hours a year
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Geothermal Energy
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Geothermal Energy: 13% growth pa2-12 cents kWh39 countries could get 100% power = 17% of the world’s people
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Geothermal Power in Iceland
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Geothermal powerNesjavellir Geothermal Plant, Iceland
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How much GEOTHERMAL energy could Japan produce?
98 to 500 terawatt hours a year
Hatchobaru Geothermal Power Plant, Kokonoe, Oita
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Wind Energy
Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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Siemens AG
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Kamisu Wind Farm, Ibaraki, Japan
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Wind Power in Japan
How much WIND energy could Japan produce?
570 to 5,000 terawatt hours a year
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How much HYDRO ENERGY
could Japan produce?
79 - 140 terawatt hours a year
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South Korea’s 1 MW Jindo Uldolmok tidal power plant
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How much TIDAL ENERGY
could Japan produce?
Guy Dauncey 2011Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
20-70 terawatt
hours a year
The Price (cents/kwh)
1990 2015 2020Wind 30 6-8 5
Solar 100 15-20 10-15
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THE RESULTJapan needs 1,000 TWh a year
Low HighEfficiency 200 500Solar 72 300Geothermal 30 500
Wind 570 5000Hydro 79 140 Tidal 20 70
TOTAL 971 6510
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HOW SOON
Do you think it will bepossible for Japan to stop
burning fossil fuels化石燃料
to make electricity?By 2030? By 2050? By 2080?
TRANSPORTATION輸送
SOLUTIONS解答
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Mother Oil
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Copenhagen, Denmark41% of all people go to work by bike.
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Electric Bicycle
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The Copenhagen Wheel
Solar electric bike, top speed 48 km/hr
Solar Bike Lane, Holland
Cycling on the Solar Bike Lane
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Moto Electra World Record Across US in 3 Days
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Electric train, running on green electricity
= no climate impact
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Japan’s Magnetic Levitation Train
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World Train Speed Record603 km/hour
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Electric bus, running on green electricity = no climate impact
On-Line Electric VehicleSouth Korea
Hamurun Community Electric Bus, Tokyo
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Smart Electric – 135 km range
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Toyota RAV4 EV148 km range
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Mitsubishi - 300 km range
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Tesla Roadster 393 km range
STELLA – SOLAR ELECTRIC
Made by students at Eindhoven University, Holland
Family size, 4-seats
Range: 400 km no sun, 600 km full sun
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Honda solar electric car charging
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Electric car fast charging
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Future Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Four people in Toronto
Five people in Paris
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HOW SOON
Do you think it will bepossible for Japan stop
burning fossil fuels化石燃料
for transportation?By 2030? By 2050? By 2080?
BUILDINGSOLUTIONS
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We can live and work in green buildings
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Is this your dream home of the future?Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Or this?Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
This…
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Or this?
This …
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Or this?
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Or this?
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Heating 加熱 without Fossil Fuels
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Solar Heating from the Air
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Ground Source Heat2 million installations in 30 countries
$20,000 to $30,000
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Water Source Heat
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Solar Heat
Solar hot wateron a restaurant in
Sweden
Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Rizhao, China
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CSIRO
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Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta
Year-Round Solar Heating
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Okotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating
Energy Centre
Community solar heat panels
Solar hot waterpanels
800 solar hot water panels on the garages90% of residential space heating (40-50o C)
Reduction - 5 tonnes of GHGs per home per year.
No groundwater intrusion, so the heat accumulates over the summer.
SOLAR THERMAL STORAGE
100% solar heated house, Emmental, Switzerlandwww.jenni.ch
Austria
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ACROS Fukuoka building 35,000 plants, 76 species
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Madrid, Spain
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Osaka
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Tokyo
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GangnamSeoul
OUR PAST 過去
AND FUTURE未来
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
We have been developing intelligencefor millions of years
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Our technology is our
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Our technology is our
cumulative 累積の
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Our technology is our
cumulative 累積のshared シェアー
ド
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Our technology is our
cumulative 累積のshared シェアー
ドintelligence 知性
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Where are we going?
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
We have made our full evolutionary
journeyover 14 billion years
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We have made our recent
human journey over five million years
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There will be
a billion years
before the Sun runs out of fueland begins to die
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A billion years10億年
We are here
Past
過去Future
将来
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Firewood1.5 million years
CumulativeIntelligence
The Carbon Years…
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The Carbon Years could be the launch-ramp…
Firewood1.5 million years
CumulativeIntelligence
Fossil Fuels200 years
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The Carbon Years could bethe launch-ramp for the solar years
Firewood Solar1.5 million years
CumulativeIntelligence
Fossil Solar200 years
True Solar1 billion years
THE CLIMATE EMERGENCYIS VERY REAL
THE CLIMATE EMERGENCYIS VERY REAL
What is stopping us from making faster progress?
THE CLIMATE EMERGENCYIS VERY REAL
What is stopping us from making faster progress?
1. Laziness 休怠 and apathy 無関心
THE CLIMATE EMERGENCYIS VERY REAL
What is stopping us from making faster progress?
1. Laziness 休怠 and apathy 無関心2. Political corruption 政治腐敗
THE CLIMATE EMERGENCYIS VERY REAL
What is stopping us from making faster progress?
1. Laziness 休怠 and apathy 無関心2. Political corruption 政治腐敗3. Ignorance 不知
THE CLIMATE EMERGENCYIS VERY REAL
What is stopping us from making faster progress?
1. Laziness 休怠 and apathy 無関心2. Political corruption 政治腐敗3. Ignorance 不知 4. Confusion 錯乱 and no leadership 指導
THE CLIMATE EMERGENCYIS VERY REAL
What is stopping us from making faster progress?
1. Laziness 休怠 and apathy 無関心2. Political corruption 政治腐敗3. Ignorance 不知 4. Confusion 錯乱 and no leadership 指導
FINALTHOUGHTS最終的な考え
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
A Thousand Possibilities
千の可能性
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What will you do with your life?
We Day, Canada www.weday.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
www.metowe.comGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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変化を起こします
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
By Nattanicha Kongsathitporn, age 14, Thailand
We need to roll up the past.
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com By Iskren Rumenov Petrov, age 14, from Bulgaria
We need to sail away from our old, polluting waysand build a green, sustainable world.
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This is about you, your children,and your future.
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決意
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Number of stars in the Universe
1024: 1 trillion trillion
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The Universe has taken
14 billion years
to create us
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Number of atoms in your
body:
1027: 1000 trillion trillion
All self-organized into one amazing
whole
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Every atom in your body was either made in the Big Bangor in a later Supernova explosion
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Number of stars in our galaxy
100 trillion
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Number of synapses in your brain
100 trillion
All self-organized into one amazing whole
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100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars
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We are all conscious
我々はすべての意識しています
We have free will私たちは自由意志を持っています
We can make a difference我々は違いを作ることができます
It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
This is about us, our planet,and our future.
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Our Home
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Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
When you THINK about
The Future of Our World
what do you FEEL?
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EXCITEMENT
UNCERTAINTY
HOPE
WORRY
FEAR
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om
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