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THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE

JAMIE FLETCHERECON331

MARCH 29, 2010

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THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE

• Adaptation

• International Trade

• Impact on Developing vs. Industrial Countries

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CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS

• Increased Global Temperatures

• Increased Plant Fertilization

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CO2 ENRICHMENT

Richard S.J. Tol, “Estimates of the Damage Cost of Climate Change” (2001)

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INCREASED GLOBAL TEMPERATURES AND CROP YIELDS

• Regional Variation

• Colder Countries Benefit

• Crop Yields Decrease in Temperate Areas

• In Tropics, Agricultural Output Will Decrease

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ADAPTATION

• Adaptation can mitigate the effects of climate change

• Adaptation Capacity is Lower in Developing Countries

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ADAPTATION

Richard S.J. Tol, “Estimates of the Damage Cost of Climate Change” (2001)

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INTERNATIONAL TRADE

• Bathtub Model for International Agricultural Markets

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SWOPSIM MODEL

• A Partial Equilibrium Model That Is Used by Riley and Hohmann to Test The Sensitivity of Agriculture to Yield Losses in Major Grain Producing Regions

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EFFECTS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE

• Interregional adjustments in production and consumption

• Global Market Changes (Prices)

• Impact of Developing Countries

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CONCLUSION

• Adaptation

• International Trade

• Impact on Developing vs. Industrial Countries

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SOURCES

• William R. Cline, Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country (2007)

• John Reilly and Neil Hohmann, “Climate Change and Agriculture The Role of International Trade” (1993)

• Richard S.J. Tol, “Estimates of the Damage Cost of Climate Change” (2001)