tepav The Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey
Symposium on New Technologies, Jobs, Growth and development
Washington, DC
22.September.2017
Neither good nor bad: Just already around
Framework How to make use of the new industrial revolution?
Biotechnology, Nanotechnology, ICT from blockchain to IoT
What NIR means? From carbon based to non carbon based growth
Low oil prices here to stay
No trade off between jobs/growth and climate change measures
SDG agenda will be strengthened
New tech mean productivity growth in all sectors at the same time
Innovation based growth in developing countries
Better G20 agenda
How to do it in developing countries? Structural reforms agenda for tech transfer and most importantly technology
diffusion
Localization agenda to become structural reform agenda
Decentralization of innovation through startups: Global diffusion of innovation
• New outlets for local value creation?
Slide 2
From carbon based to non carbon based growth
Low oil prices here to stay Bad for exporters good for importers. (GCC, AZ) (TR)
No trade off between jobs/growth and climate change measures Good for SDGs.
SDG agenda will be strengthened Social, economic and environmental vulnerabilities
From sustainable cities to sustainable employment
New tech mean productivity growth in all sectors at the same time From structural change to within sector productivity growth
Good for TR
New industrial policy: Focus on Technology not on sectors
Innovation based growth • Tech transfer/diffusion means innovation based growth everywhere
More symmettric G20 agenda Asymmetry between finance and development tracks is no more
Slide 3
Looking at the big picture...
Slide 4
1992
Source: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, based on TEPAV Analysis
…no need to feel anxious
Slide 5
2016
Source: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, based on TEPAV Analysis
Turkey has a new structural issue Turkey grew through internal migration in the past 30 years. It can no longer do so.
Slide 6
Urbanization rates of Finland, Germany, China, Egypt and Turkey (1850-2015)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
19
20
19
00
18
80
18
60
20
00
20
10
19
90
19
80
19
60
19
70
19
50
20
20
19
40
19
30
19
10
18
90
18
70
18
50
Finland
Germany
Egypt
Turkey
China
Need to increase Turkey’s capability set in new technology platforms
7
Technological advantage in biotechnology, nanotechnology and ICT, 2013
Source: OECD
An agenda for development?
How to achieve innovation based growth in developing countries? Structural reforms agenda for technology transfer
Structural reforms agenda for technology diffusion
Localization agenda to become structural reform agenda? How to define accelarator projects
Large public expenditure program, bargaining power
A sector where new tech is already commercialized
Decentralization of innovation through startups: Global diffusion of innovation
Are startups new outlets for local value creation for MNCs?
Slide 8
Slide 9
Innovation=Technology transfer through FDI
Concrete Tools/
Projects
Public procurement
policy
Technolojgy specific
clustering
Policy/ Strategy
Oversee Unit
Ecosystem pioneers &
Funds
Start-up incubators
Redirecting funds
according to goal & focus
Vision
Sustainable Growth Sustainable
Development and Green Industry
High Tech Production and Export
Horizontal Areas
Macroeconomics
Efficiency of Administration
Foreign Policy/EU process
Education/ Human Capital
Law
Urbanization
Science
Life Sciences
Material Sciences
Computer Sciences
Technology Platform
Biotechnology
Nanotechnology
ICT
Accelerator Sector and
Project
Pharmaceutical Industry
Construction
Digital economy
Sectors to be transformed
through Innovation
Textile
Plastics
Chemistry
Automotive
Food
Medical Device
Agriculture
Energy
Transportation
Slide 10
New Drugs (NMEs) Approved by Size of Drug Sponsor/Owner
How to do it in Turkey? Technology start-ups?
6
13 13 13 14 18
4
13 16
7 2
2 4 5 4 6
9
10
14
4 9
5
9 4 10
11
11
16
15
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Nu
mb
er
of
NM
Es
Ap
pro
vals
New Drugs (NMEs) Approved by Size of Drug Originator
5
15 14 15 18
22
15 20
29
13 2
1 3 5 6
5 6
12 8
2 9
4 8 2 4 7
2
6
8
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Nu
mb
er
of
NM
Es
Ap
pro
vals
Smaller pharma/biotech companies Other large pharma/biotech companies Top ten pharma companies
Source: FDA
Looking for structural reforms including concrete programs for a viable doing business agenda?
Slide 11
Source: WIPO Global Innovation Index, TEPAV calculations
Global Innovation Index heatmap of G20 countries in comparision with Turkey, 2016
Innovation Input Innovation Output
Global Innovation Index
Institutions Human
capital and research
Infrastructure Market
sophistication Business
Sophistication
Knowledge & technology
outputs
Creative outputs
Turkey 42 82 43 62 46 86 45 31
UK 3 13 7 4 4 14 9 3
USA 4 17 14 13 1 11 4 13
Germany 10 18 10 22 16 15 8 7
South Korea 11 31 3 9 14 13 5 21
Canada 15 6 22 11 3 20 23 23
Japan 16 15 13 7 8 10 13 36
France 18 26 11 8 15 16 21 15
Australia 19 10 9 6 10 23 32 18
China 25 79 29 36 21 7 6 30
Italy 29 38 31 18 25 36 25 32
Russia 43 73 23 60 63 37 40 66
Saudi Arabia 49 72 32 39 38 66 75 47
South Korea 54 46 55 85 17 56 63 77
Mexico 61 65 53 67 51 77 70 62
India 66 96 63 87 33 57 43 94
Brazil 69 78 60 59 57 39 67 90
Argentina 81 106 47 65 106 69 97 83
Indonesia 88 122 92 80 62 106 71 85
Note: Coloring is based on Turkey’s performance. Green if country is doing better than Turkey, red if vice-versa
Conclusions
NIR neither good nor bad: Already here
“Best of the times, worst of the times”
New technologies are bringing in a solution to countries like Turkey
Better than what we now have
How to define an agenda for tech transfer and tech diffusion in the developing world?
New framework for structural reforms
Slide 12