The Danish labour market situationHelsinki, May 9. - 10. 2011
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Local, regional and national level
The (municipal) Job Centers (92) Have a high degree of freedom in planning and implementing their
employment initiatives and activities Are obliged to focus on outcomes, and to achieve results which contribute to
the realization of the national and regional outcome performance
The Employment Regions (4) Are responsible for ensuring coherence between the local initiatives and the
National Employment Policies Follow up the performance outcomes of the employment measures being
pursued in the job centres
The Minister of Employment Sets the national targets and focus areas
4 Employment Regions in
Denmark
South Denmark Employment Region
1.2 million
Central Jutland Employment Region
1.2 million
North Jutland Employment Region
0.6 million
Copenhagen & Zealand Employment Region
2.4 million
Developments in the Danish Labour market
The Danish economy / labour market is facing challenges in the short and in the long term:
Short term challenges: Recovery from the recession. A question af business cycles
Long term challenges: Structure and demografi
Development in unemployment and long term unemployment 1996-2011
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Unemployment Long term unemployment
Developments in the Danish Labour market
The unemployment reached an all time low in July 2008 with an unemployment rate of 2,1 pct.
Because of the current economic recession, by January 2011 the unemployment rate had risen to 6,5 pct.
By March 2011: 6,1 pct. - unemployment appears to have stabilized at around 6 pct.
Denmark has lost almost 200.000 jobs in the private sector within 2 years
Unemployment by age groups 2007-2011
0123456789
10
2007
M01
2007
M06
2007
M11
2008
M04
2008
M09
2009
M02
2009
M07
2009
M12
2010
M05
2010
M10
2011
M03
Total
16-24 år
25-29 år
30-39 år
40-49 år
50-59 år
60 år og derover
Unemployment by sex 2007-2011
02468
10
2007
M01
2007
M06
2007
M11
2008
M04
2008
M09
2009
M02
2009
M07
2009
M12
2010
M05
2010
M10
2011
M03
Men Women
Structural challenges : The age-challenge
Labour market participation among the age group 60-64 years
0
1020
30
4050
60
7080
90
55-59 år 60-64 år
Pct.DanmarkSverigeNorge
Other structural challenges
Denmark has: the highest tax burden in OECD (in pct. of
GNP: 48 pct.) the highest public sector wages in OECD
countries (in pct. of GNP: 18 pct.) the highest public consumption in OECD
(in pct. of GNP: 30 pct.) the highest public expenditure in OECD (in
pct. of GNP: 58 pct.)
=> Denmark is facing large public deficits in the years to come
The government has introduced following initiatives which is expected to enhance the economy
Members of unemployment insurance funds can receive unemployment benefits for 2 years
A tax reform has given substantial tax income cuts in 2010 and 2011.
The annual financial agreements involves tax cuts and slowdown on public spending.
Restrictions on the municipalities budgets
The Danish labour market surveillance consists of:
One year forecasting of the developments in employment.
One year forecasting of the developments in unemployment.
Current Regional labour market balances describing the match between labour supply and demand for 1.100 different job titles.
All three tools are published twice a year.
The one year forecasts
Because of the current rapid developments on the labour market forecasts are only being made with a one year horizon.
The forecasts are based on the economic forecasts made by the Danish Ministry of Finance
They show the monthly and quarterly expectations to the development in employment and unemployment
Expected development
The unemployment is expected to decrease slowly during 2011
The employment is expected to stabilize / increase slowly during 2011
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The labour market balance model
Labour market balance – surveillance and frame for the tasks in the jobcenters
Survey to about 15.000 companies in the whole country twice a year
Status for about 1,100 different job categories Gives the status of shortages and surpluss of the labour
force at regional level Identify the bottlenecks – severe shortages af labour Shows in which areas mobility is needed from
unemployed, when they have less possibility to find a job
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The labour market balance model – data sources
Data on unemployment. Source: The Central Register of Labour Market Statistics CV data from Jobnet
Data on employment and job turnover. Source: Register-based labour force statistics (RAS and IDA statistics) Statistics Denmark
Data on the recruitment situation. Source: Survey among companies
Labour market balance
The labour market balances
The danish labour market is divided in 4 different regions.
Each region has its own labour market balance describing the match between labour supply and demand for 1.100 different jobtitles.
On the basis of data on employment, unemployment, job vacancies and companies unsuccessful recruiting the jobtitles are divided into different categories.
The labour market balances
Balance between supply and demand
Jobopportunities Definition
Severe and structural lack of labour
Very good job opportunities
Jobtitles with severe recruitment problems and extraordinary low unemployment
Lack of labour Jobtitles with recruitment problems and low unemployment
Mismatch between supply and demand
Jobtitles with recruitment problems and high unemployment
Balance between supply and demand
Good job opportunities Jobtitles without recruitment problems and with low unemployment
Excess of labour Limited job opportunities
Jobtitles without recruitment problems with high unemployment and few jobvacancies.
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Labour market balance – active use
Frame of planning initiatives and of the daily activities in the jobcenters and other institutions working with labour market issues
Unemployed are obliged to seek jobs with positive employment possibilities
Activation offers must target jobs with positive employment possibilities
As a tool in the dialog with the targetgroups in the employment system
Basis of the guidance dialog according to choise of education/training, especially for young people
Contact to companies starts in the ”balance”
To prevent the worst consequences of the downturn in the economy the focus of the Danish employment effort is on:
Bringing the unemployed back into job as soon as possible.
Motivating and encouraging unemployed to seek the jobs still available.
Using the labour market tools to upgrade unemployed persons with skills and knowledge in areas with good job opportunities.
Encouraging more young people to taking a formal education.