The Consequences of the First Brain Drain
in U.S. History
Monday, May 2, 2011
11:00 AM - 12:15 PM
Percent of All Employed College Graduates Working in a STEM Field
Ten Years after Graduation
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1977/87 1986/96 1993/03
Cohort
Pecent of Em
plo
yed College
Graduates
Percent of STEM college graduates
enrolled/employed in STEM ten years>graduation
by level of STEM preparation (college GPA quintile)
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
1977/87 1986/96 1993/03
Cohort
Perc
ent
of STEM
Colle
ge G
raduate
s
All STEM College Graduates
)Most Prepared (Quintile 5
Quintile 4
Quintile 3
Quintile 2
)Least Prepared (Quintile 1
Percentage of all employed college graduates
working in a STEM field ten years after graduation
1977/87 1986/1996
Cohort
1993/2003
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Percent
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
Percent
1977/87 1986/96 1993/03
Cohort
All STEM college graduates
Most prepared (quintile 5)
Quintile 4
Quintile 3
Quintile 2
Least prepared (quintile 1)
U.S. trends in student mathematics performanceNational Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP 2008)
Source: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences,
National Center for Education Statistics,
National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), various years, 1973–2008 Long-Term Trend Mathematics Assessments.
239 242219 219 219 222
230 230 231 231 232
241
279 281266 264269 269 270
273 274 274 276 281
305 306
304 300 298302 305 307 306 307 308 307
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
1973
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
1978
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Scores
Age 17
Age 13
Age 9
1973 1978 1982 1986 1990 1992 1994 1996 1999 2004 2008
Extrapolated
data
Original assessment data Revised
assessment
data
U.S. trends in student mathematics performanceNational Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP 2008)
Source: NCES The Nation's Report Card: Trends in Academic Progress in Reading and Mathematics 2008
http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/pubs/main2008/2009479.asp
Changes since 1973
Age Group White Black Hispanic
Age 9 ∆ 25 points ∆ 34 points ∆ 32 points
Age 13 ∆ 16 points ∆ 34 points ∆ 29 points
Age 17 ∆ 4 points ∆ 17 points ∆ 16 points
U.S.33%
Other OECD countries
25%
Japan12%
Germany8%
Korea7%
Canada5%
France5%
Turkey5%
U.S.14%
Other OECD countries
29%
Korea16%
Japan15%
Germany11%
Canada5%
France5%
U.K.5%
U.S.33%
Other OECD countries
25%
Japan17%
U.K.11%
Germany9%
Canada5%
U.S. share of all OECD high-performing students:
Science, math and reading
Source: These figures are reproduced from: Salzman and Lowell, 2008; “Making the Grade” Nature 453, 28-30].
Science Math Reading
Computer & information science graduates
U.S. citizen & permanent resident
0
10,000
20,000
40,000
30,000
50,000
60,000
BS degrees
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
MS & PhD degrees
Petroleum engineering starting salaries & graduates
Total and U.S. [citizen & perm. resident] grads
Source: IPEDS;
Tabulations: Kuehn & Salzman, 2010
Salary data from BLS & NACE
$43,674
$50,400
$55,987
$61,516
$86,220
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
1997 1999 2003 2005 2010 100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Total BS
US BS
Intersection of highest degree in
science & engineering and S&E
occupation: 2006
STEM managers by field of highest degree
1993--2003
Source: These figures are reproduced from: Lowell, Salzman, Bernstein, and Busquets, forthcoming
Engineering15%
Social Sciences8%
Physical and Biological
7%
Math & Computers4%
Health and Medical2%
Non-STEM64%
1993
Engineering8%
Social Sciences12%
Physical and Biological
7%
Math & Computers5%
Health and Medical1%
Non-STEM67%
2003
S&E managers 1993 -- 2003
As percent of total engineers/social scientists
Source: These figures are reproduced from: Lowell, Salzman, Bernstein, and Busquets, forthcoming.
1993
2003
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
% of all Eng in S&E Mgt
% of all SocSci in S&E Mgt
12.1%
6.6%
20.4%
26.9%1993 2003
Brain drain?
Change in “stay rates”–temporary resident Ph.D.s Comparison of doctorate holders in 2007 to average during 2000-2005
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
One-year stay rate
Two-year stay rate
Five-year stay rate
Ten-year stay rate
Average stay rate
Base period (2000-2005) average = 1.0
Source: Oak Ridge Associated Universities; Finn 2010.
Brain drain?
Change in “stay rates”–temporary resident Ph.D.sComparison of doctorate holder stay rates 5 to 10 years post-Ph.D.
Source: Oak Ridge Associated Universities; Finn 2010.
Pe
rce
nt
wh
o s
tay i
n U
.S.
Immigration yield for Top 10 H-1B employers
FY07-09
H-1B
Rank Company
H-1Bs
FY07-09
Greencard
Apps
FY07-09
Immigration
Yield
5 Tata 2,368 0 0%
3 Satyam 3,557 37 1%
2 Wipro 7,216 125 2%
10 Accenture 1,396 28 2%
1 Infosys 9,625 476 5%
9 Intel 1,454 163 11%
8 IBM 1,550 382 25%
6 Deloitte 1,896 588 31%
7 Cognizant 1,669 702 42%
4 Microsoft 3,318 2,214 67%Source: DHS USCIS: Initial H-1B I-129 Petitions FY07-09 & PERM Data FY07-09/ Ron Hira RIT, 2011.
Reasons to pursue U.S. higher education
N=981
Survey in 2010 of nearly 1,000 Indians who are currently undertaking, or have completed, graduate study in the US.
Source: Kumar, Finegold, Winkler, 2011 “Will they return?” Report, School Management and Labor Relations, Rutgers University 2011.
233 238 234
172
219212 211 205
148
191
21 27 29 24 28
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Total US Citizens/ Perm. Res. Foreign Students
Jobs accepted in the U.S. by
Anderson MBA graduates
24 2629
35
22
5 61
8
1
19 20
28 27
21
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Total US Citizens/ Perm. Res. Foreign Students
Jobs accepted outside the U.S. by
Anderson MBA graduates
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
ManagementSTEM
UCLA applications from foreign students
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Management
STEM
UCLA total enrollment by foreign students