The Billion-Ton Report – Forestry Feedstocks
Dr. Bryce J. Stokes
National Program Leader U.S. Forest Service Research & Development
Washington, DC, 703-605-5263, [email protected]
Abstract: The Department of Energy and the Department of Agriculture undertook an analysis to determine whether the land resources of the United States are capable of producing a sustainable supply of biomass to displace 30% or more of the U.S.’s present petroleum consumption. This 30% goal was set by a joint advisory committee to the two departments as a vision for making a major contribution to U.S. energy needs. It would require approximately 1 billion dry tons of biomass feedstock per year. Looking at just forestland and agricultural land, the two largest potential biomass sources, this study estimated potential feedstocks exceeding 1.3 billion dry tons per year — enough to produce biofuels to meet more than one-third of the current demand for transportation fuels. This annual potential is based on a more than six-fold increase in production from the amount of biomass currently consumed for bioenergy and biobased products. About 933 million dry tons of sustainably removable biomass could be produced on agricultural lands, and about 368 million dry tons could come from forestlands. From forestlands, the projection includes 52 million dry tons of fuelwood harvested for residential and commercial applications, 144 million dry tons of residues from wood processing mills and pulp and paper mills, 47 million dry tons of urban wood residues including construction and demolition debris, 64 million dry tons of residues from logging and site clearing operations, and 60 million dry tons of biomass from fuel treatment operations to reduce fire hazards. The forestry projections are very conservative, only based on forest wastes and fairly low estimations of utilization. They did not include forest crops – the agricultural analysis did include woody perennial crops. Implications of a more-broader, forest resource for energy and biobased products will be discussed. The entire Billion-Ton Report is available on-line at the following website: http://feedstockreview.ornl.gov/pdf/billion_ton_vision.pdf
The Billion-Ton ReportForestry Feedstocks
Dr. Bryce StokesNational Program Leader
USDA Forest Service R&DWashington, DC
Robert D. PerlackLynn L. WrightAnthony F. TurhollowRobin L. GrahamOak Ridge National Laboratory
Bryce J. StokesUSDA – Forest Service
Donald C. ErbachUSDA – Agricultural Research Service
http://feedstockreview.ornl.gov/pdf/billion_ton_vision.pdf
What Was the Purpose of the Study?
U.S. Biomass Goal• DOE/USDA joint advisory committee Vision• Displace 30% of current petroleum consumption by 2030
– 5% of the nation’s power– 20% of the nation’s transportation fuels– 25% of the nation’s chemicals & materials from biobased
products.
Answers question
Can U.S. produce a sustainable supply of biomass to meet this goal – approximately
equivalent to one billion dry tons.
What Is Current Biomass Consumption?
Biomass accounts for approximately:
• 13% of renewable electricity
• 97% of industrial renewable energy use
• nearly all renewable energy use in residential and commercial sectors (84% and 90%, respectively)
• somewhat more than 2.5% of transportation fuel use
Biomass Consumption in the Nation's Energy Supply, 2002Source: EIA, 2003
Natural gas, 24%Nuclear, 8%
Petroleum, 39%
Coal, 23%
Renewable energy, 6.0%
Hydroelectric, 45%
Geothermal, 5%
Biomass, 47%
Solar, 1%
Wind, 2%
4452352410186
190
• Forest products industry- Wood residues- Pulping liquors
• Urban wood & process residues• Fuelwood (residential/commercial)• Electric utilities• Grains to biofuels• Bioproducts Total
Million dry tons/yr
Biomass Resource
For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
The Biomass Feedstock Resource Base
• About one-half of the land in the contiguous U.S.
• Forestland resources -- 504 million acres of timberland, 91 million acres of other forestland
• Agricultural resources -- 342 million acres cropland, 39 million acres idle cropland, 68 million acres cropland pasture
Forest resources• Logging residues and other
removals– Traditional logging activities– Cultural operations and
clearing of timberlands• Forest thinnings (fuel
treatments)– Timberland– Other forestland
• Industry processing residues– Primary wood processing mill
wastes– Secondary wood processing
mill wastes• Urban wood wastes• Fuelwood• Pulping liquors (black liquor)
1145
504
168
342
39
67
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Million acres
Other land uses
Timberland
Other forestland
Active cropland
Idle cropland
Copland pasture
Land use in the United States
Forest resource analysis
Forest resource analysis utilizes USDA/Forest Service databases and expert opinion
• Forest Inventory and Analysis database• Timber Product Output database• Energy Information Administration• Fuel Treatment Evaluator (an assessment tool used to
identify and evaluate forest stands with accumulated biomass – Healthy Forest Restoration Act)
• Resources Planning Act analyses (periodic timber assessment with projections to 2050)
• Forest Products Laboratory data
Forest Resources Analysis
Residues from commercial logging activities, silvicultural operations & clearing of
Timberlands ~ 41 million dry tons/year potential
0.7 2.1
28.9
0.3 0.4
8.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
Nat'l forest Other public Private
Forest ownership
Mill
ion
dry
tons
Logging Other removals
For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
Forest Resources Analysis
Residues from fuel treatment operations on timberlands and other forestlands ~ 60 million dry tons/year potential
1849
770
5175
147
158
310
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
National forests
Other public lands
Private lands
Million dry tons
Timberland Other forestland
9.4
1.1 2.8
35.2
2.2 2.0 0.4
6.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
National forest Other federal State & local Private
Forest ownership
Mill
ion
dry
tons
Timberland Other forestlandFor conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
Forest Resource Analysis
this is
Forest Resource Analysis
Fuelwood
• Wood harvested directly from forestlands Used now by residential and commercial sectors for space heating (24 million dry tons)
• Used by electric power sector (10 million dry tons)
• Additional amounts from projected demand growth
For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
Forest Resource Analysis
Forest products industry processing residues• Wood residues
– Primary mill residues (bark and coarse & fine residues): 92 million dry tons generated – 43% used for on-site energy, 41% used for fiber, 14% other products (e.g., mulch), and 2% unused (39.5 million dry tons for energy current; 1.7 million tons unused) (another 6 million tons in other industries)
– Secondary wood residues (shavings, sawdust, cut-offs, etc.): 16million dry tons generated, 6 million dry tons available
• Pulping liquors– Pulp and paper mills (black liquor): 52 million dry tons
equivalent• Future industry growth contributes more resources
For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
Forest Resource Analysis
Urban Wood Residues
• Wood (finished wood products) & yard/tree trimmings from MSW ~ 8 million dry ton potential– Landfill survey data, composition sampling, population
driven– Material destined for MSW landfills
• Construction, remodeling and demolition residue ~ 20 million dry ton potential– Affected by economic activity (e.g., housing starts)– Material destined for C&D landfills– Contamination/commingling with non-wood products is
problematic• Additional amounts from projected demand growth
For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
Forest Resource Analysis
Forest growth and demand
• Future supply and demand prospects (RPA assessment)• Projected increase in logging and other removal residue –
increased residue recovery, more efficient logging operations
• Increase in the demand for wood and paper products (mill residue and black liquor)
• Increased use of finished wood products and increased recycling
• Increased demand for fuelwood• Total forest growth and demand ~ 89 million dry tons
For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
Forest Resource Analysis
The sustainable forest resource potential is nearly 370 million dry tons annually
3546 52
8
32
9
49
11
8
28
15
8
16
16 22
11
0
20
40
60
80
Logg
ing
resi
due
Oth
erre
mov
alre
sidu
e
Fuel
trea
tmen
ts(T
imbe
rland
)
Fuel
trea
tmen
ts(O
ther
fore
stla
nd)
Fuel
woo
d
Woo
dre
sdiu
es(fo
rest
prod
ucts
Pulp
ing
liquo
rs(fo
rest
prod
ucts
Urb
an w
ood
resi
due
13% 5% 13% 3% 14% 19% 20% 13%
Mill
ion
dry
tons
per
yea
r
Existing use Unexploited GrowthFor conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
Forest Resource Summary
The sustainable forest resource potential~ 370 million dry tons per year
52
74
70
47
60
64
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Million dry tons per year
FuelwoodPulping liquor
Wood processing residuesUrban wood residues
Fuel treatmentsLogging & other residue
For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
Summary
Are there sufficient resources to meet 30% of the country’s petroleum requirements?
• Land resources can technically supply more than 1.3 billion dry tons annually & still meet food, feed, and export demands
• Will require R&D, policy change, stakeholder involvement• Required changes are not unreasonable given current trends
1301
933
368
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Million dry tons per year
Total resourcepotential
Agriculturalresources
Forest resources
For conversion,
(2000 lbs) tons
x 0.907 =
metric tonnes
Forest Resource Analysis
Summary
• Potential forestland-derived biomass for U.S. is 368 million dry tons annually• Potential agriculture-derived biomass for U.S. is 379-933 million dry tons annually• Total biomass is ~ 1-1.3 million dry tons annually• Special notes for forestry
• Only unmerchantable material and wastes• Fairly conservative set of assumptions• Remember woody crops• Other wood is available
http://feedstockreview.ornl.gov/pdf/billion_ton_vision.pdf
For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes
Wood in Agricultural Analysis
Short Rotation Woody Crops in High Yield/Land Change Scenario• Not in forestry assessment – in agriculture Wood Fiber• 5.1 millions acres• 8 dry tons per acre per year• 25 percent of annual harvest is allocated to energy biomass• Total is 9.2 million dry tons annually
Additional CRP Trees• 2.2 million dry tons per year
Total Wood in Agricultural Analysis
• 11 – part of 146/368 million dry tons per year (~100 million dry tons)
Potential as a Perennial Crop• Part of 146 million dry tons per year under moderate yield/land change scenario• Part of 368 million dry tons per year under high yield/ land change
• The remaining slides are not a part of the “Billion-Ton Report” and only represent some thoughts on possible additional woody biomass by the presenter. These are only representative concepts and analyses and would need further development and validation for accuracy and use beyond this draft analysis. • The concepts in the following slides do not represent or imply any policies or strategies of the federal agencies responsible for the development of the “Billion-ton Report.”
Beyond the Billion-Ton Report: Does not constitute or imply the official assessment or policy of DOE or USDA
Thinnings
7.8Total
1.1Natural Pine
6.7Planted Pine
Million DT/YR
Forest Stand
Additional Potential from Commercial Thinning
Southern Pine – 50% biomass
Beyond the Billion-Ton Report: Does not constitute or imply the official assessment or policy of DOE or USDA
Growth, Removals, & Mortality
94 millionMortality
240 millionRemovals
355 millionGrowth
Dry TonsPer Year
Item*
* Includes Alaska – for illustration only
Beyond the Billion-Ton Report: Does not constitute or imply the official assessment or policy of DOE or USDA
New Totals
504Total18Thinnings47Recover Mortality
71Utilization and Recovery Assumptions
368Original
Million Dry Tons per Year
Item
Note: Half of current mortality and 3x southern thinning projections
Beyond the Billion-Ton Report: Does not constitute or imply the official assessment or policy of DOE or USDA
Beyond the Billion-Ton Report: Does not constitute or imply the official assessment or policy of DOE or USDA
25x25’ Analysis (Burton and others)
• 86.9 billion gallons of ethanol
• Billion gallons of biodiesel
• 962 billion kWh electricity
• Ag + wood wastes• 106 million acres of
dedicated crops
Tentative Wood Analysis (2030) (million gallons of ethanol)
• Residues: 12-16 • Biorefinery: 1.5-2.5• Liquors: 4-5• Crops: 8-13• Total: 26.5-36.5