Download - The American Nuclear Society
The American Nuclear Society
The Society for the advancement of nuclear science and technology
to benefit humanity
The Top Ten Nuclear Issues & Challenges
Remarks to the ASQ Energy and Environmental Division
by
Garry A Harris
ANS Chairperson, Georgia Section
September 13, 2004
ANS Membership
11,000 individual members• 800 (7%) outside the United States• 47 countries represented• 8% under 35; 15% over 66• ~700 with less than 5 years experience• Under 35 group increased by ~40% from
1999 to today
ANS Membership AlsoConsists of:
• 19 Divisions/Technical Groups• 70 Organization Members• 36 U.S. Local Sections• 9 Non-U.S. Sections/Affiliated Societies• 30 formal agreements for cooperation
with international organizations• 15 Plant Branches• 33 Student Sections
ANS Goals
ANS will be: • the recognized leader for the advancement of
nuclear science and technology• members’ primary resource for professional
development and knowledge exchange• publicly recognized as a credible source of
nuclear science and technology information• an active contributor to, and participant in,
nuclear science and technology issues
Top 10 - Nuclear Good News
• Delivery of record outputs
Record Nuclear Electricity Production Is Sustainable
767 778754
728
674640
577
500
600
700
800
'90 '94 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02
(Bill
ion
s o
f K
ilow
att-
Ho
urs
)
Source: NEI
Top 10 - Nuclear Good News
• Delivery of record outputs• Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply
Top 10 - Nuclear Good News
• Delivery of record outputs• Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply• Only environmentally acceptable option for reliable
and secure energy supply
Fossil Fuel Supplies
• Western World must reduce their dependence on oil– Limit influence on foreign
policy
– Reduce cost to economy of oil price shocks
– Reduce greenhouse gas emissions
– Prepare for inevitable resource depletion
– Husband oil for other uses
• Reducing oil use is not a solution to terrorism but it may help
Top 10 - Nuclear Good News
• Delivery of record outputs• Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply• Only environmentally acceptable option for reliable and
secure energy supply• Excellent safety record
Significant Events: Annual Industry Average
(1988-2001)
0.77
0.9
0.450.4
0.25 0.260.21
0.17
0.08 0.10.04 0.03 0.02 0.03
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001
Source: NUS
Significant Events (SEs) are those events that the NRC staff identifies for the PI Program as meeting one or more of the following criteria:
degradation of important safety equipment;a major transient or an unexpected plant response to a transient;degradation of fuel integrity, the primary coolant pressure boundary, or important associated structures;a reactor trip with complications;an unplanned release of radioactivity exceeding the technical specifications or regulations;operation outside the technical specification limits;other events considered significant
Fiscal Year
Top 10 - Nuclear Good News
• Delivery of record outputs• Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply• Only environmentally acceptable option for reliable and
secure energy supply• Excellent safety record• Capacity factors at record high levels
Nuclear Plant Efficiency At Record High-Levels
Source: NEI
91%90.7%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
'92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02
Ca
pa
cit
y F
ac
tor
Top 10 - Nuclear Good News
• Delivery of record outputs• Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply• Only environmentally acceptable option for reliable and
secure energy supply• Excellent safety record• Capacity factors at record high levels• Good economic performance
US Electricity Production Cost Estimates (1981-2002)(in constant 2000 cents/kWh)
Source: Pre 1995: UDI, Post 1995: RDI Modeled Production Cost
Electricity Production Costs (Updated for 2002)
0123456789
1011
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01
Year
Co
st
- c
en
ts/k
wh
r Nuclear 1.71Coal 1.85Gas 4.06Oil 4.41
Top 10 - Nuclear Good News
• Delivery of record outputs• Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply• Only environmentally acceptable option for reliable and
secure energy supply• Excellent safety record• Capacity factors at record high levels• Good economic performance• Expect significant increase in future electricity
demand
Top 10 - Nuclear Good News
• Delivery of record outputs• Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply• Only environmentally acceptable option for reliable and
secure energy supply• Excellent safety record• Capacity factors at record high levels• Good economic performance• Expect significant increase in future electricity demand• License renewals and plant life extension
Top 10 - Nuclear Good News
• Delivery of record outputs• Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply• Only environmentally acceptable option for reliable and
secure energy supply• Excellent safety record• Capacity factors at record high levels• Good economic performance• Expect significant increase in future electricity demand• License renewals and plant life extension• Environmental quality benefits
Health Effects of Fossil Emissions
Health Effect Study Cases/Yr
Mortality HEI, Pope 30,100
Respiratory Hospitaliztns 4 pooled 20,100
Asthma ER visits Schwartz 7,160
Chronic Bronchitis Pooled 18,600
Asthma attacks Whittemore 603,000
Lost work days Ostro 5,130,000
Minor restricted activity Ostro 26,300,000
Abt Associates, Clean Air Task Force, October 2000.
Emissions from fossil plants are killing > 30,000 people per year
Source: Dan Keuter, Entergy
Top 10 - Nuclear Good News
• Delivery of record outputs• Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply• Only environmentally acceptable option for reliable and
secure energy supply• Excellent safety record• Capacity factors at record high levels• Good economic performance• Expect significant increase in future electricity demand• License renewals and plant life extension• Environmental quality benefits• Nuclear technology important in our lives
Nuclear Technology Status
• Improves medical diagnosis• Protects livestock health• Develops water resources• Preserves food• Promotes agricultural productivity• Cures human illness• Enhances human nutrition• Advances environmental science• Eradicates virulent pests• Strengthens industrial quality control• Provides energy for the hydrogen economy
Hydrogen
• Reduces dependency on foreign oil, gas– Worldwide production of fossil fuels (oil and gas)
expected to peak in 2007 and decline thereafter• Can be renewable energy’s best friend
– Serve as the battery for renewables– Overcome some of the limitations for solar, wind, hydro
and biomass
Hydrogen economy only makes sense if hydrogen is produced with non-fossil, non-emitting generation
Source: Dan Keuter, Entergy
Hydrogen from renewables
Method Needed for 1000 MW Electrical Land Area
(square miles) Photovoltaic 100 km2 @ 10% efficiency 40 Wind 3,000 Wind Turbines @ 1 MW ea. 40 - 70Biogas 60,000,000 pigs or 800,000,000 chickens
6,200 km2 of sugar beets 2,400Bioalcohol 7,400 km2 of potatoes 2,800
16,100 km2 of corn 6,200272,000 km2 of wheat 104,000
Bio-oil 24,000 km2 of rapseed 9,000 Biomass 30,000 km2 of wood 12,000Nuclear <1 km2 1/3Source: Dan Keuter, Entergy
Top 10 - Nuclear Issues
1. Financial markets2. High cost for first new plant3. Deregulation4. Current low electricity demand5. Lack of agility (construction time, licensing risk)6. Infrastructure (workforce, lack of momentum)7. Waste / transport8. Safety culture tuning9. Public perceptions (safety, security, terrorism,
proliferation)10. Never ending challenges (DB, TEPCO, Tokaimura)
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
AP1000 Twin Reactor Systems (2200 MWe each)
Cap
ital
Co
st (
2200
MW
e p
lan
ts)
Nth Plant EPC Cost Base Financing Costs FOAK Engineering Learning Curve Extra Financing Cost
Extra Financing Cost $228 $183 $171 $164 $0
Learning Curve $510 $304 $155 $68 $0
FOAK Engineering $350 $0 $0 $0 $0
Base Financing Costs $310 $283 $275 $270 $237
Nth Plant EPC Cost $2,031 $2,031 $2,031 $2,031 $2,031
1st 2nd 3rd 4th Nth
Target Level: $1100 / KWe = $2,420 million total for a 2200 MWe plant, w ith f inance costs
Illustrative Example: Capital Costs for AP1000s
Source: Scully Capital Services, 2002
Financial Issues
• Financial markets not prepared to finance high costs of first new plants
• Power company concerns about earnings dilution
• Concerns about delays in construction
• Concerns about recovering costs in a deregulated market
• No credits for non-financial benefits
Potential Mitigating Actions
• Equity investment, loans, loan guarantees,investment tax credits, accelerated depreciation
• “Standby credit facilities” for delays due to acts of government (regulator)
• Power purchase agreements
• Financial credits for non-financial benefits
Government Stimulation is Not New
• Stimulate restart of new construction
• Mitigate financial issues
• Risk mitigation by the government is common for all sorts of energy; not just nuclear
Federal Credit Program Examples Abound
Many agencies use federal credit approaches to achieve programmatic goals.Budget scoring is a fraction of credit authority based on “Subsidy rate”.Examples of federal credit programs:
FY2002Program Annual credit Subsidy rate
• Ginnie Mae: Mortgages $200.0 B 0.33%
• DOEd: Food direct loan program $21.6 B 4.00%
• SBA: General business loans $10.7 B 1.07%
• DOA: Rural utility electrification $2.6 B 1.13%
• DOT: TIFIA for transportation $2.0 B 4.50%
• NASA: Commercial space $15.0 B TBD transportation
Individual projects are evaluated by independent rating agencies before funding.
The Need for Realism
• Chemical Plant Hazards• Aircraft Crashes• Dirty Bombs• Terrorism• Plutonium• Waste and its transportation• Proliferation• Three Mile Island• Chernobyl
• The Public Needs to Be Well Informed!!
Nuclear power has best safety record
400-page study of 4,290 400-page study of 4,290 energy-related accidents: energy-related accidents: 15,000 deaths related to oil, 15,000 deaths related to oil, 8,000 related to coal, 5,000 8,000 related to coal, 5,000 related to gas. related to gas.
Paul Scherrer Institute, Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland, 2001Switzerland, 2001
Deaths from Accidents from Generating Electricity per Billion MWe-hr
101
39
10
1
Hydro
Coal
Gas
Nuclear*Includes Chernobyl*Includes Chernobyl
Percent Favor/Oppose Use of Nuclear EnergyAnnual Averages until 2002
Ref: Bisconti Research, Inc. (BRi)
5154 52 54 55
4649
61
5150
4748
524951
6258
6563 64
383536
4139
444445
5049
4246 43
39
30
36
2931 31
34
20
40
60
80
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
May-03
Favor Oppose
ANS Serves Members and the Public
• Outreach activities for educators and students– www.aboutnuclear.org web site for the public– 75 annual educator workshops and exhibits– Career exhibits and programs for students– Scholarships to 80 students at 21 universities
• Outreach to media– Interviews and press releases– ANS position statements
• Outreach to policymakers– Washington, DC Office
Grassroots Initiative
The Grassroots Initiative encourages you to reach out to three audiences in order to build positive public perception about nuclear science and technology
Policy Makers Media Educators
Schedule a meeting to offer your expertise and discuss current legislative issues.
Write your local newspaper a 150-250 word letter to the editor or a longer Op/Ed piece.
Schedule a Teacher Workshop, speak at a local school or presentat an area chamber of commerce.
In closing …
• Today’s challenges are the results of success . . . the success of a mature and productive nuclear industry that is on the verge not only of realizing the full potential of its first generation of existence, but of laying the foundation for another generation - a generation that will carry the industry from the fiftieth anniversary to the nuclear centennial - A. Howard
The American Nuclear Society
The Society for the advancement of nuclear science and technology
to benefit humanity
Top 10 Challenges for the Next Generation
• Continuing Professional Development and Life Long Learning
• Improving the breadth and depth of the technology• Maintaining the safety culture• Getting engaged with the Legislators - Civics 101;
influencing the political ideology of governing parties• Dealing with public opinion; changing the psychology /
playing field• Promoting realism• Dealing with future adverse events• Networking / mentoring• Having fun• Making a difference with your life / career
Solution to International Exchange Issues?