The 2010 Elections for the Greek Regional Authorities
Andreadis I., Chadjipadelis Th. Department of Political Sciences, Aristotle University Thessaloniki
Greece
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Outline (part I)
• Regional elections are considered as second order elections. In addition, candidates do not run under the name of a political party.
• What is the most important criterion used to choose a candidate for regional governor?
• What is the impact of voters’ party attachment to their voting behaviour in regional elections? Do they vote for a different candidate?
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Outline (part II)
• Individuals who vote for a different candidate:– How many are they?– Their most important criterion?– Their party attachment?
• Analysis of voting behaviour in Attica– Voter transition rates– Dimaras’ electoral base
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Data and methods (part I)
• Data from Helpmevote (Voting Advice Application)– VAA used for Greek Regional Elections of 2010– Provides voting advice by matching voters' policy
views with candidates' positions.– Voters express their views on issues that reflect the
most important dimensions of political competition.– A formula calculates proximity of voters’ positions to
the positions of the candidates– The output of the application is a ranked list of
candidates according to calculated voter/candidate proximities.
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Data and methods (part II)
• Helpmevote Data– In 20 days more than 28,000 users – Helpmevote users had the option to fill-in a
"personal data" form and provide information about them
• Ecological inference on electoral results of regional elections 2010 and parliamentary elections 2009.
20/4/2011 61st PSA Annual Conference - GPSG Panel 3
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Most important criterion used
0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0%
Personal relations
Party support
Electoral list names
The program
Knowledge of problems
Personality (soc-occup)
Sincerity - honesty
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Correspondence analysis: party attachment and main criterion
Party SupportHonesty
Manifesto
Other
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Distribution of voting behaviour by main criterion
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Personal relations
Personality (soc-occup)
Sincerity - honesty
Electoral list names
Knowledge of problems
The program
Party support
Different Candidate Undecided Same Candidate
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Distribution of voting behaviour by party attachment
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ND
KKE
PASOK
LAOS
GREEN
DEM. LEFT
SYRIZA
Different Candidate Undecided Same Candidate
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Distribution of voting behaviour by Region (voters attached to PASOK)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
North AegeanPeloponnese
ThessalyWest Greece
E.Macedonia-ThraceCentral Macedonia
CreteCentral Greece
West MacedoniaEpirus
Southern AegeanAttica
Ionian Islands
Different Candidate Undecided Same Candidate
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Region of Attica
• Nearly 2 million people have participated to the general elections of 2009 in Attica region
• In the same region almost 450,000 fewer people have voted for the regional elections (2010)
• The number of invalid (spoiled and blank) ballot papers have raised from about 55,000 to about 142,000.
• As a result the total number of valid ballots (due to abstinence and the increase of non-valid votes) is reduced by about 27%.
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2009-2010 comparison (Attica)Candidate % 2010 Supporting Party % 2009
Sgouros 24.0% PASOK 40.3%
Kikilias 20.5% ND 28.0%
Dimaras 16.0% Independent (PASOK) -
Pafilis 14.4% KKE 10.2%
Georgiadis 6.6% LAOS 7.5%
Mitropoulos 6.2% SYRIZA 6.8%
Diakos 4.0% Greens 4.0%
Psarianos 3.8% Democratic Left -
Hagios 2.3% ANTARSYA 0.5%
Alavanos 2.2% Independent (Left) -
20/4/2011 61st PSA Annual Conference - GPSG Panel 3
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Voting behaviour by party attachment (Attica)
12,4%
8,6%
6,7%
6,3%
3,5%
12,3%
11,6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
PASOK
ND
KKE
LAOS
SYRIZA
GREEN
DEM. LEFT
Same Undecided Other Dimaras
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VTR estimates for ND and PASOK voters (Attica)
ND2009 PASOK2009 ND2009* PASOK2009
*
Abstention 9.1% 31.6%
Sgouros 10.9% 32.3% 12.0% 47.3%
Kikilias 55.4% 1.3% 61.0% 1.9%
Dimaras 10.2% 21.8% 11.3% 32.0%
Pafilis 0.8% 2.7% 0.8% 3.9%
Georgiadis 2.3% 0.2% 2.5% 0.4%
Mitropoulos 0.9% 2.3% 1.0% 3.4%
Other & Blank 7.1% 6.6% 7.9% 9.6%
*: Rates calculated among voters who have gone to the regional polls
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Electoral base of Dimaras
• Won 2 out of 10 of PASOK 2009 voters. A part of them remain attached to PASOK.– Approximately 12.4% of the voters who feel close to PASOK
have reported their intention to vote for Dimaras
• Won 1 out of 10 of ND 2009 voters. Most of them remain attached to ND.– Approximately 8.6% of the voters who feel close to ND have
reported their intention to vote for Dimaras
• During the pre-election period 70% of voters who do not feel close to any party remained undecided.– Only 12.8% of the voters who do not feel close to any party
have reported their intention to vote for Dimaras
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Conclusions
• Voting a different candidate• Factors associated with individual
characteristics (party support and criteria used) and factors related to conditions in the region (i.e. independent candidate from the same ideological space).
• Implications from vote analysis in Attica region and directions for further analysis
• Some of PASOK voters who have voted for Dimaras still feel close to PASOK and probably they will return until the next general election. Another part appears to have left PASOK.