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© 2012 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Sherbrooke, 23 mai 2018
François Banville, partenaire exécutif, Gartner
TENDANCES TI SELON GARTNER, FORMULE VINS ET FROMAGES
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1 © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
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Dans les pays à faible revenu, combien de filles complètent leur primaire?
A: 20%B: 40%C: 60%
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Où demeure la majorité de la population?
A: Dans des pays à faible revenuB: à revenu moyenC: à haut revenu
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Dans les 20 dernières années, la proportion de gens vivants dans une pauvreté extrême a
A: presque doubléeB: restée +/- pareilleC: presque la moitié
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Quelle est l’espérance de vie dans le monde aujourd’hui?
A: 50 ansB: 60 ansC: 70 ans
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En ce moment, il y a 2 milliards d’enfants de 0 à 15 ans. Combien y en aurait-il en 2100 selon l’ONU?
A: 4 milliardsB: 3 milliardsC: 2 milliards
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L’ONU prédit que la population s’accroitra de 4 milliards en 2100. Pourquoi?
A: Il y aura plus d’enfants (0-15)B: Il y aura plus d’adultes (15-74)C: Il y aura plus de personnes âgées (75+)
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Comment a changé le nombre de décès dus à des désastres naturels dans les 100 dernières années
A: plus du doubleB: à peu près le mêmeC: moins de la moitié
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Il y a à peu près 7 milliards de personnes dans le monde aujourd’hui. Où vivent-ils?
A: 1G Europe / 4G en Asie / 1G en Afrique / 1G en AmériqueB: 1G Europe / 3G en Asie / 2G en Afrique / 1G en AmériqueC: 1G Europe / 3G en Asie / 1G en Afrique / 2G en Amérique
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Quel pourcentage des enfants d’un an ont été vacciné pour une maladie?
A: 20%B: 50%C: 80%
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À travers le monde, les hommes de 30 ans ont passé en moyenne 10 ans à l’école. Combien d’années les femmes du même âge ont-elles faites?
A: 9 ansB: 6 ansC: 3 ans
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En 1996, les tigres, les pandas géants et les rhinocéros noirs étaient listés comme des espèces en voie de disparition. De ces trois, combien le sont encore?
A: 2B: 1C: aucune
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Quelle proportion des gens dans le monde a un accès quelconque à l’électricité?
A: 20%B: 50%C: 80%
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Les experts climatiques croient que dans les 100 prochaines années la température va, en moyenne:
A: devenir plus chaudeB: rester la mêmeC: devenir plus froide
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17
So much to do, so little time!The White Rabbit, Alice in Wonderland.
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Méthodologie Hype Cycle
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Google Ngram pour le mot Rocket
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Battage médiatiqueCourbe d’adoption
Temps
Attentes
Comment fonctionne le « hype cycle »
Déclencheur Somment des attentes exagérées
Puits des désillusions
Pente de l’illumination
Plateau de la productivité
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Opportunités
Déclencheur Somment des attentes exagérées
Puits des désillusions
Pente de l’illumination
Plateau de la productivité
Prendre de l’avance sur la
compétition
Optimiser la relation avec le
vendeur
Identifier l’angle d’attaque
Recruter de l’expertise
Maximiser l’effetpublicitaire
Accumuler de l’expérience
Planifier les achats
Être en avant de la
vague
Profiter des risques et des couts
plus bas.
Exploiter une niche
Attentes
Temps
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Google Ngram pour le mot Rocket
Déclencheur
Somment des attentes exagérées
Puits des désillusions
Pente de l’illumination
Plateau de la productivité
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23 © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
IA Education
Applications
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Quand je parle d’intelligence artificielle, à quoi pensez-vous en premier?
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Deep
Learning
Data
Systems
and Sensors
Algorithms
High-Performance
Compute
Virtuous Cycle
Virtuous CycleAI Today —Why Now?
Adapted from a presentation by Alexander Linden: "Key Trends in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning"
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26 © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
AI-Aided Intervention
2016 Gartner Data & Analytics Excellence Award
"Innovative strategies for cloud-based data warehousing
with curated data collections, integrated data dictionaries
and interactive, in-the-moment analytics."
▪ Goal: Improving student outcomes
▪ Approach:
– Collect and connect data in Amazon Web Services
– September 2013, apply machine learning
▪ Mathematica Prototype => Python production
▪ Random Forrest for now …
– Build process to empower faculty and staff(new President, July 2016)
▪ Outcome:
– 83% accuracy in predicting course failure
– 3.3% drop in failing grades =3,100 more students passing courses
Ivy Tech
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AI Learning VPA
▪ Goal: Support students learning at scale, 24/7
▪ Approach:
– Bot framework developed in "Digital Future Lab“
▪ Components sourced from market
– Learning stack: Integrated with LMS, library and SIS
– Reactive as well as proactive VPA:
▪ "Help me reference"
▪ "Your exam is in 2 weeks …"
▪ Outcome:
– Genie Beta, July 2017 to 5,000 students
– Genie 1.0, Feb 2018 to all 57,000 students
– Commercializing the platform underway
– Genie 2.0 with IoT integration in roadmap
Deakin Genie
The Deakin Genie videos:Official: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zsRPuU53E74Beta-users: https://video.deakin.edu.au/media/t/0_a4hjb86h
"I love the fact that it knows my resources and I don't have to go online and have fifteen or twenty clicks to find information that I can find easily now,
so that's great"
"This would be really helpful ... I really like this assessment thing"
Student feedback on pilot:
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AI Grading — Vendor Example
"Traditionally, if you were to give a test to 100 students and they all write the correct answer, you
would have to go through all 100 and mark them correct, with AI-assisted grading, you could grade one answer and it would
apply to all 100 students."
Sergey KarayevCS PhD, a Gradescope co-founder
▪ Use: Helping teachers speed up grading
▪ Approach:– Data: 10 million answers to ~100,000 questions.
– AI identifies and groups answers
– Instructors ensure answer groups are correct
– Instructors score
– AI continually learns
▪ Promise:– 90% reduction in grading times
– 75% reduction in pilot with 600 student exam.
Gradescope
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Exostructure
Strategy
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Ecosystem
Mediu
m
Market
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General
Specific
General
Education Ecosystem
Analo
gM
ediu
m
Dig
ital
Create Market Consume
Digital Infrastructure
Digital Exostructure
"Industry" Exostructure
Societal Infrastructure
HEITools/
ServicesSocietyEmployer
EducationProviders
Indirect IndirectDirect
HTTP TCP/IP
ASU
USC
Udacity
Lynda.com
Elsevier
Workday
Money Patent
DiplomaProgram
CaliperOpen Badge
Flipkart
Starbucks Citizen
Pell Grants
DoE
“The Expanding Education Ecosystem:
A World of Choice” (G00228925)
CSN
URL HTML SMTP
eT
Blackboard
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Partnering in Your Digitalized Education Ecosystem?
Digital Infrastructure
Digital Exostructure
"Industry" Exostructure
HEITools/
Services SocietyEmployerEducationProviders
URL HTTPHTML
SMTP/MIME
GAPExAPI
Caliper
QTI
eduPerson
MLO
eT
Open Badge
DNSTCP/IP
Udacity
GeorgiaTech AT&T
Pearson
StraighterLine
2U
USC
Lynda.com
BannerPeopleSoft
Canvas
DiplomaProgram
Grant
DoE
Citizen
Money CulturePatent
Courts
Blackboard
ACME Inc
Flipkart
Dublin CoreBologna
Workday
Government
State Government
Starbucks
ASU
PAR CDD
Societal Infrastructure
Students Loans, CSN
Blockchain
Sony Education
EvAlgo Inc
Uni X
Elsevier
General
Specific
General
Analo
gM
ediu
m
Dig
ital
Create Market Consume
Indirect IndirectDirect
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33 © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Partnering in the Digital(ized) Education Ecosystem
General
Specific
General
Digital Infrastructure
Digital Exostructure
"Industry" Exostructure
HEITools/
Services SocietyEmployerEducationProviders
Open Badge
GeorgiaTech AT&T
2U
USC
Lynda.com
ACME Inc
Starbucks
ASU
Societal Infrastructure
Blockchain
Sony Education
EvAlgo Inc
Uni X
Microsoft
Citizen
wadeandwendy.ai
HTTP TCP/IPURL HTML SMTP
Capgemini
Analo
gM
ediu
m
Dig
ital
Create Market Consume
Indirect IndirectDirect
Open Badge
Flipkart
UdacityUdacity
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Digital Outpaces Analog in the Education Ecosystem
Digital Infrastructure
Digital Exostructure
"Industry" Exostructure
HEITools/
Services SocietyEmployerEducationProviders
URL HTTPHTML
SMTP/MIME
GAPExAPI
Caliper
QTI
MLO
eT
Open Badge
DNSTCP/IP
Udacity
GeorgiaTech AT&T
Pearson
StraighterLine
2U
USC
Lynda.com
BannerPeopleSoft
Canvas
DiplomaProgram
Grant
DoE
Citizen
Money CulturePatent
Courts
Blackboard
ACME Inc
Flipkart
Dublin CoreBologna
Workday
Government
State Government
Starbucks
ASU
PAR CDD
General
Specific
General Societal Infrastructure
Students Loans, CSN
Blockchain
Sony Education
EvAlgo Inc
Uni X
Elsevier
NonzeroRobert Wright
Analo
gM
ediu
m
Dig
ital
Create Market Consume
Indirect IndirectDirect
eduPerson
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LOWA
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Unification des réseaux
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IoT Business
Solutions
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Business and Consumers
B C B B
C B C C
E-Commerce& E-Service
Platforms &Supply Chains
Crowdsourcing& Crowdfunding
Social Networking"Sharing Economy"
Year Founded: 20042015 Revenue: $18B
Year Founded: 19992015 Revenue: $16B
Year Founded: 19942015 Revenue: $107B
Year Founded: 20092015 Cumulativefunding: $2B
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Now Two New Connected Entities Are Coming
T AProliferating over next 5 to 10 years
Evolving over next 5 to 15 years
"Thing" (connected physical product) A?
(Autonomous, AI-Like, Agent)
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T and A Expand the Universe of Business Model Possibilities
? ?
? ?
? ? ? ?
? ? ? ?
B2B B2C
C2B C2C
b c t a
b
c
t
a
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Disrupting Between Now and 2026
B2T
C2T
T2B T2C T2TThings offer value to businesses.
Example: Security cameras offer interesting anomaly images to news outlets.
Things offer value to consumers.
Example: Lawnmower senses lawn and growing conditions and auto-orders seed.
Businesses offer value to things.
Example: Car park operators offer temporary spaces, and recharging rates to semi-autonomous electric vehicles.
Individuals offer value to things.
Example: Freelancers offer cleaning services to ovens.
Things offer value to things.
Example: Damaged things offer replacement part work to 3D printers.
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Disrupting Between Now and 2021 and 2031
B2T B2A
C2T C2A
T2B T2C T2T T2A
A2B A2C A2T A2A
A?s offer value to A?s.The beginning of the end of sales forces?
A?s offer value to consumers.
Example: AI advisor acts as a personal bereavement counselor.
Businesses offer value to As.
Example: Accounting firm offers regulatory arbitrage example dataset to "BoardBots."
Things offer value to A?s.Local delivery drones offer live lidar data to "PoliceBot."
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Hype Cycle
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Organic Wine
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Microbrewery
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Cheese
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47 © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
LOWA
IA Education
Applications
Exostructure
Strategy
IoT Business
Solutions
Fromage
Microbrasserie
Vin organique
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48 © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
✓Réajustez votre vision du monde.
✓Maitrisez le hype cycle.
✓Expérimentez et comprenez vos options.
✓Examinez toujours les hype cycles de
Gartner avant de choisir vos vins et vos
fromages
En conclusion: