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LBE5010 Renewable Energies and Energy Planning
Prof. Paulo Seleghim Jr.Universidade de São Paulo
Techno-Economical Analysis of Energy Generation Power Plants
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FOSSIL ENERGY SOURCES
RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
displacementtechno-economical
competition
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Techno-Economical Analysis of an Investment Project
Capital Budgeting
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Development of an engineering project
Project: Conceptual
AnalysisExecutive
Execution: Implementation
CommissioningOperation
Economic sustainability:
success as a product and as an investment project
Economic Engineering: application of techno-
economical analysis tools to to the engineering projectaiming at identifying the best choice between
excluding alternatives…
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Case Study:
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Case study: decision about investing R$ 1 billion in a
photovoltaic power plant or in a wind farm (both greenfield)
Development of an engineering project
Solar
Thermal ?
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– A) Queiroz Galvão
• Complexo Caldeirão Grande
• 415.8 MW - 2016/2017 (ACL)
– B) Chesf/ContourGlobal/Casa dos Ventos
• Complexo Picos
• 205.1 MW Set/2015
– C) Casa dos Ventos
• Complexo Ventos do Araripe
• 210 MW set/2015
– D) Chesf/ContourGlobal/Casa dos Ventos
• Complexo Ventos do Araripe I I
• 172,4 MW Jan/2016
– D') Casa dos Ventos
• Complexo Ventos do Araripe I I
• 59,2 MW Jan/2016
– E) Casa dos Ventos
• Complexo Ventos do Araripe I I I
• 234.6 MW Mai/2018
Chapada do Araripe
Development of an engineering project
Case study: decision about investing R$ 1 billion in a
photovoltaic power plant or in a wind farm (both greenfield)
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Staaken a 20km de Berlin
Development of an engineering project
Case study: decision about investing R$ 1 billion in a
photovoltaic power plant or in a wind farm (both greenfield)
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Staaken a 20km de Berlin
Development of an engineering project
Case study: decision about investing R$ 1 billion in a
photovoltaic power plant or in a wind farm (both greenfield)
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70%
4MW
30%
Werneuchen, 18.87 MWp
19MWp
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Staaken a 20km de Berlin
Development of an engineering project
Case study: decision about investing R$ 1 billion in a
photovoltaic power plant or in a wind farm (both greenfield)
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Capital to be invested
(CAPEX) from which it is expected some revenue
(investment fund, etc.)
R$ 1 billion
Alternative: acquisition of
government bonds (public debt, etc.) at fixed interest rates,
having the same redemption term and virtually no risk
R$ 1 billion
Development of an engineering project
Case study: decision about investing R$ 1 billion in a
photovoltaic power plant or in a wind farm (both greenfield)
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Financial temporal simulation of the power plant, including expenditures occurring at the design and execution phases, as well as revenues and costs during the operation phase during the entire lifespam
R$ 1 bilhão
Cash flowR$ 1 bilhão(capital budgeting)
Development of an engineering project
Case study: decision about investing R$ 1 billion in a
photovoltaic power plant or in a wind farm (both greenfield)
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I temized Investment Cost of and Ethiopian Wind project
Development of an engineering project
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CAPEX
time
project commissioning
cash flow($/t)
Cashflow analysis: expenses and incomes
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revenues
CAPEX
time
project commissioning
cash flow($/t)
Cashflow analysis: expenses and incomes
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fixed costs
revenues
CAPEX
time
project commissioning
cash flow($/t)
Cashflow analysis: expenses and incomes
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OPEX
fixed costs
revenues
CAPEX
time
project commissioning
cash flow($/t)
Cashflow analysis: expenses and incomes
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time
accumulatedcash flow
Accumulated cashflow:
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project success
end of lifespanbusiness success
death valley
beginning ofsenescence
increase in operation costs due to equipment
depreciation
Accumulated cashflow:
time
accumulatedcash flow
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cost
benefit
maximuminvestment
payback
break-even
Accumulated cashflow: characterization parameters
time
accumulatedcash flow
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Parâmetros do fluxo acumulado – saldo do projeto
150bar boiler
67bar boiler
50MWsurplus
60MWsurplus
CAPEX Revenues
time
accumulatedcash flow
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Which one is better?
Wind
Photo
R$ 1 billion
time
accumulatedcash flow
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Objective decision criteria…
time
accumulatedcash flow
payback
Payback:• Liquidity, less exposure to risks• disregards revenues after payback• disregards temporal value of money
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cost
benefit
maximuminvestment
payback
benefit / cost:expresses how much benefit can be obtained form each unit of value invested…• disregards temporal value of money
Objective decision criteria…
time
accumulatedcash flow
Payback:• Liquidity, less exposure to risks• disregards revenues after payback• disregards temporal value of money
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Temporal Value of Money
Internal Rate of Return
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R$100,00
R$65,00R$50,00
R$0,00
R$100,00
R$20,00R$30,00
R$0,00
R$70,00
Project A
R$100,00
R$115,00
R$100,00
R$120,00
ano1 ano2 ano3
ano1 ano2 ano3 ano4
3 years
4 years
Project B
R$0,00
ano4
Return of R$ 15 in 3 years or return of
R$ 20 in 4 years ???????
Which one is better?
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Temporal value of money
R$100,00
Reference:
5% per annum
at virtually no
risk (example)
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Temporal value of money
R$100,00
Reference:
5% per annum
at virtually no
risk (example)
R$105,001,05
future value
(year 1)
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Temporal value of money
R$100,00
Reference:
5% per annum
at virtually no
risk (example)
R$105,00 R$110,251,05 1,05
future value
(1 year)
future value
(year 2)
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Temporal value of money
R$100,00
Reference:
5% per annum
at virtually no
risk (example)
R$105,00 R$110,25 R$115,761,05 1,05 1,05
future value
(1 year)
future value
(year 2)
future value
(year 3)
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Temporal value of money
R$100,00
Reference:
5% per annum
at virtually no
risk (example)
R$105,00 R$110,25 R$115,761,05 1,05 1,05
n)r(PVFV += 1
future value
(1 year)
future value
(year 2)
future value
(year 3)
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R$86,38 R$90,70 R$95,24 R$100,001,051,051,05
Temporal value of money
Reference:
5% per annum
at virtually no
risk (example)
n)r(FVPV −+= 1
present value
(1 year)
present value
(year 2)
present value
(year 3)
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Temporal value of money: expenses and incomes
=k
kPVNPV
cashflow
R0 R1
R2R3
R5
R4
R6R7
R8 R9 R10
D0
D1
D2 D3
D5D4D6
D7
D8D9 D10
= +
−=
N
kk
kk
)r(
DRNPV
0 1
• Rk are incomes @ k-th period• Dk are expenses @ k-th period
• r is the discount rate reflecting
the opportunity cost
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Spreadsheet formulae...
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Spreadsheet formulae...
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NPV: limitations
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Net Present Value: limitations
Project A
Initialinvestment
R$ 10 milions
NPV = R$ 2 millions
Project B
InitialinvestmentR$ 2 billions
NPV = R$ 3 millions
Execute B because VPLB > VPLA, however ...
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R$100,00
R$65,00R$50,00
R$0,00
R$100,00
R$20,00R$30,00
R$0,00
R$70,00
Project A
ano1 ano2 ano3
ano1 ano2 ano3 ano4
Project B
R$0,00
ano4= +
−=
N
kk
kkA
)r(
DR)r(NPV
0 1
= +
−=
N
kk
kkB
)r(
DR)r(NPV
0 1
Variation of the NPV in function of the discount rate…
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5,9%
5,2%
FC_A
100,00-R$
-R$
65,00R$
50,00R$
-R$
FC_B
100,00-R$
-R$
20,00R$
30,00R$
70,00R$
= +
−=
N
kk
kkA
)r(
DR)r(NPV
0 1
= +
−=
N
kk
kkB
)r(
DR)r(NPV
0 1
Variation of the NPV in function of the discount rate…
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NPV
B
A
execute A(greater NPV)
referential discount rate (opportunity cost)
r
Variation of the NPV in function of the discount rate…
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NPV
B
A
execute B(greater NPV)
execute A(greater NPV)
referential discount rate (opportunity cost)
r
Variation of the NPV in function of the discount rate…
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How to evaluate the
opportunity cost by
setting the discount rate ?
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Variation of the NPV in function of the discount rate…
26/07/2017:
9,25 % a.a.
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NPV
B
A
r
Variation of the NPV in function of the discount rate…
Viability limit: the discount rate above which the
project is no longer
economically viable
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B
A
0= )r(NPVr 0)TIR1(
DRN
0kk
kk =+
−
=
r
NPV
Variation of the NPV in function of the discount rate…
IRR – Internal Rate of Return
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IRRA > IRRB → A is more resiliente than B
B
A
IRR – Internal Rate of Return
r
NPV
Variation of the NPV in function of the discount rate…
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Techno-Economical Analysis of an Investment Project
Capital Budgeting
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Capital
Techno-Economical Analysis of an Investment Project (Capital Budgeting):
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Engineering Project
Capital
Techno-Economical Analysis of an Investment Project (Capital Budgeting):
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Engineering Project
CAPEX/OPEX
Capital
Techno-Economical Analysis of an Investment Project (Capital Budgeting):
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Engineering Project
CAPEX/OPEX
Capital
Cash Flow
Techno-Economical Analysis of an Investment Project (Capital Budgeting):
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Engineering Project
CAPEX/OPEX
Capital
Cash Flow
Decision Parameters
Techno-Economical Analysis of an Investment Project (Capital Budgeting):
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Engineering Project
CAPEX/OPEX
Capital
Cash Flow
Decision Parameters
Execution
Techno-Economical Analysis of an Investment Project (Capital Budgeting):
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Engineering Project
CAPEX/OPEX
Capital
Cash Flow
Decision Parameters
Execution
Techno-Economical Analysis of an Investment Project (Capital Budgeting):
Engineering Project
Decision Parameters
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CAPEX / OPEX
Obs.: solar thermal
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Wind power plants: CAPEX/OPEX
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Current LCOE
Blade
Controls/Sensors
Drivetrain
Generator
Electrical
Tower
Pitch System
Foundation
Nacelle
Pitch Control
Condition Monitoring
SCADA
Yaw System
Castings/Forgings
Systems
Yaw Control
2025 LCOE2
5%
redu
ction
in C
AP
EX3,75 ¢/kWh
4,50 ¢/kWh
2%
3%
2%
2%
1%
2%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
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y = 1,4752x
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Cu
sto
(M
US$
)
potência instalada (MW)
Wind power plants: CAPEX/OPEX
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características típicas usina solar fotovoltaica unidade
insumo energético primário vento -
capacidade instalada típica 28,00 MWp
FECC Nordeste 35,00 %
Tempo médio de implantação 18 meses
utilização de mão de obra baixa -
Qualificação da mão de obra alta -
característica de operação intermitente -
custo dos insumos baixo -
custo operacional médio -
emissão GEE baixa -
grau de maturidade tecnológica TRL9 -
parâmetros valor unidade
custo capital 3,23 kR$/kW
custo operacional 7,91 R$/kW/mês
venda eletricidade (13/12/2013) 120,37 R$/MWh
Wind power plants: CAPEX/OPEX
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características típicas usina solar fotovoltaica unidade
insumo energético primário vento -
capacidade instalada típica 28,00 MWp
FECC Nordeste 35,00 %
Tempo médio de implantação 18 meses
utilização de mão de obra baixa -
Qualificação da mão de obra alta -
característica de operação intermitente -
custo dos insumos baixo -
custo operacional médio -
emissão GEE baixa -
grau de maturidade tecnológica TRL9 -
parâmetros valor unidade
custo capital 3,23 kR$/kW
custo operacional 7,91 R$/kW/mês
venda eletricidade (13/12/2013) 120,37 R$/MWh
depreciation
Wind power plants: CAPEX/OPEX
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R$ 1 billion → 310 MWp
35%
310 GWp → 108 MW
108 MW → 0,85 MR$/month
108 MW → 9,33 MR$/month
Wind power plants: CAPEX/OPEX
month/$MR,month
h
MWh
$RMW 339
3024120108 =
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cash flow($/month)
CAPEX
1º
mo
du
le
2º
mo
du
le
3º
mo
du
lemonth 18
m 12m 6
0,85 MR$/month
9,33 MR$/month
1 GR$/18 months
OPEX
revenues
35 years
Wind power plants: cash flow
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0,85*f( T ) MR$/mês
depreciation
cash flow($/month)
CAPEX
1º
mo
du
le
2º
mo
du
le
3º
mo
du
lemonth 18
m 12m 6
9,33 MR$/month
1 GR$/18 months
OPEX
revenues
35 years
Wind power plants: cash flow
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+=N
nd185,0Dn
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Photovoltaic power plants: CAPEX/OPEX
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Photovoltaic power plants: CAPEX/OPEX
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Photovoltaic power plants: CAPEX/OPEX
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y = 11,034x
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
2.000
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Cu
sto
(M
US$
)
potência instalada (MW)
Photovoltaic power plants: CAPEX/OPEX
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características típicas usina solar fotovoltaica unidade
insumo energético primário luz solar -
capacidade instalada típica 40,00 MWp
FECC Nordeste (5) 30,00 %
Tempo médio de implantação 36 meses
utilização de mão de obra baixa -
Qualificação da mão de obra alta -
característica de operação intermitente -
custo dos insumos baixo -
custo operacional médio -
emissão GEE baixa -
grau de maturidade tecnológica TRL8 -
parâmetros valor unidade
custo capital (30MW) (1) (2) (3) 13,31 kR$/kW
custo capital (300MW) (1) (2) (3) 11,25 kR$/kW
custo capital (60MW) (1) (2) (3) 13,08 kR$/kW
custo operacional (1) 6,93 R$/kW/mês
venda eletricidade (4) 215,12 R$/MWh
Photovoltaic power plants: CAPEX/OPEX
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características típicas usina solar fotovoltaica unidade
insumo energético primário luz solar -
capacidade instalada típica 40,00 MWp
FECC Nordeste (5) 30,00 %
Tempo médio de implantação 36 meses
utilização de mão de obra baixa -
Qualificação da mão de obra alta -
característica de operação intermitente -
custo dos insumos baixo -
custo operacional médio -
emissão GEE baixa -
grau de maturidade tecnológica TRL8 -
parâmetros valor unidade
custo capital (30MW) (1) (2) (3) 13,31 kR$/kW
custo capital (300MW) (1) (2) (3) 11,25 kR$/kW
custo capital (60MW) (1) (2) (3) 13,08 kR$/kW
custo operacional (1) 6,93 R$/kW/mês
venda eletricidade (4) 215,12 R$/MWh
depreciation
Photovoltaic power plants: CAPEX/OPEX
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89 GWp → 27 MW
R$ 1 billion → 89 MWp
30%
27 MW → 0,185 MR$/month
27 MW → 4,18 MR$/month
month/$MR,month
h
MWh
$R,MW 184
30241221527 =
Photovoltaic power plants: CAPEX/OPEX
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cash flow($/month)
CAPEX
1º
mo
du
le
2º
mo
du
le
3º
mo
du
le
m 12m 6
0,185 MR$/m
4,18 MR$/month
1 GR$/36 months
OPEX
revenues
35 years
m 18 m 24
month 36
m 30
4º
mo
du
le
5º
mo
du
le
6º
mo
du
le
Photovoltaic power plants: cash flow
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0,185*f( T) MR$/monthOPEX
cash flow($/month)
CAPEX
1º
mo
du
le
2º
mo
du
le
3º
mo
du
le
m 12m 6
4,18 MR$/month
1 GR$/36 months
revenues
35 years
m 18 m 24
month 36
m 30
4º
mo
du
le
5º
mo
du
le
6º
mo
du
le
Photovoltaic power plants: cash flow
depreciation
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+=N
nd185,0Dn
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Analysis of the Investment Projects (Capital Budgeting)
depreciação 2
taxa de desconto 0,54% ao mês
VPL -401,50MR$
TIR 0,23% ao mês
TIR 2,77% ao ano
Benefício/Custo 0,6632R$/R$
-1.500,00
-1.000,00
-500,00
0,00
500,00
1.000,00
0 100 200 300 400 500
Acumulado (MR$)
depreciação 5
taxa de desconto 0,54% ao mês
VPL 42,20MR$
TIR 0,65% ao mês
TIR 7,81% ao ano
Benefício/Custo 1,1274R$/R$
-1.500,00
-1.000,00
-500,00
0,00
500,00
1.000,00
1.500,00
2.000,00
0 100 200 300 400 500
Acumulado (MR$)
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DECISION: WIND. However...
Analysis of the Investment Projects (Capital Budgeting)
depreciação 2
taxa de desconto 0,54% ao mês
VPL -401,50MR$
TIR 0,23% ao mês
TIR 2,77% ao ano
Benefício/Custo 0,6632R$/R$
-1.500,00
-1.000,00
-500,00
0,00
500,00
1.000,00
0 100 200 300 400 500
Acumulado (MR$)
depreciação 5
taxa de desconto 0,54% ao mês
VPL 42,20MR$
TIR 0,65% ao mês
TIR 7,81% ao ano
Benefício/Custo 1,1274R$/R$
-1.500,00
-1.000,00
-500,00
0,00
500,00
1.000,00
1.500,00
2.000,00
0 100 200 300 400 500
Acumulado (MR$)
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Photovoltaics at the 10/2014 bid:
202 MWp @ R$ 215,12 / MWh
diversification of energy sources
Tax incentives,
exemption from taxes for equipment,
differentiated tariffs, etc.
R$ 100 / MWh
Installed capacity in MW
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Streaming = www.youtube.com/c/pseleghim/live
Next class: conversion of thermal energy
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