Systems, People and AutomationJohn Main
John Paschkewitz
June 15, 2017
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• “Working with DARPA” means “working with an idiosyncratic PM”• Understand your customer (us) & how we think• We assume you’ve attended DARPA 101, 102, … depending on your past
experience with DARPA and we don’t need to discuss mechanics• We have very different ways of looking for new programs, performers, and
projects • We will coach you in how to engage with us more effectively
• Some sense of what we are interested in potentially investing in over the next year and why
What you will take away from this session
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John Main
• Second time as a PM• Opportunistic• “Don’t be boring”
Programs of interest in this forum: • IMPROV• GS3
Currently looking at: • Deception• Anything that is “not boring” –
often means exploiting science and tech in radically new ways
John Paschkewitz
• Came to DARPA for a career change• Problem-focused • Easily bored
Programs of interest in this forum:• CASCADE • Agile Teams (A-Teams)
Currently looking at: • A-Teams related concepts• Re-imagining wargaming
John M. vs. John P.
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• What is an interesting topic/What is a good problem?• Is it interesting to me? • What is the frontier of the research space for this topic/problem? • Where would the future be without DARPA investment? Would DARPA
investment enable something qualitatively different? • Is there something new here? • What is the demonstration or testable hypothesis related to this new thing? • Is the answer still interesting to me? • What is the impact? • Who might the performers be? • Can I answer Heilmeier?
Let’s run through some case studies with each of us (which are related to what we are currently looking for)
John and John’s checklist for ideas
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John P: What is a good problem?
Today’s approaches to include human adaptability in sociotechnical systems design are heuristic-based art
Unkn
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Know
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Known/Fixed Roles Unknown/Fluid Roles
Nuclear power plant disaster response“Design” approach: Exhaustive empirical testing and improvisation
Automation-of-Labor DecisionsDesign approach: • “men are better at-
machines are better at” (MABA-MABA)
• Fitts lists + empirical economic analysis
Air Traffic ControlDesign approach: • Human in the loop
(HITL) simulations• Empirical metrics (e.g.
throughput, safety)
Symbiotic Office RobotsDesign approach: Scheduler with episodic non-Markovian localization
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John M: What is a good opportunity?
https://www.behance.net/gallery/5946557/Mechanical-Engineering-Gecko-Cover
https://www.elektormagazine.com/news/edition-4-2016-of-the-elektor-magazine-now-available
https://twitter.com/naturematerials/status/558607476808241152
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JP: Is it interesting to me? What is the frontier?
(Cummings, 2015)(Fong, 2016)
Management Science, 2003
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JM: Is it interesting to me? What is the frontier?
Scientists and Engineers
Scientific and Technical Information
Ideation New S&T Ideas and Concepts
Understanding
Hypothesis
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JM: Is it interesting to me? What is the frontier?
Scientists and Engineers
Scientific and Technical Information
Ideation New S&T Ideas and Concepts
Understanding
Hypothesis
More people and more information than ever means more new ideas than ever
More information than ever -Cumulative publications double every 15 years
2008-2012Science Collaborations 2005-2009
Larsen and von Ins
http://olihb.com/2014/08/11/map-of-scientific-collaboration-redux/
Science participation has changed from western to global in the last 10 years
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JP: What is the future without DARPA investment?
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JM: What is the future without DARPA investment?
Public and Private Funding of S&T in G20 Nations in 2013 “Global private and public R&D funding,” Scienceogram UK, May 2013 at http://scienceogram.org/blog/2013/05/science-technology-business-government-g20/ as of 16 October 2014.
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JP: Is there something new here? Is it still interesting?
McComb, Cagan, Kotovsky, 2015
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JM: Is there something new here? Is it still interesting?
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JP: What is the demonstration or testable hypothesis related to this new thing?
Hypothesis:
By using new abstractions for team structure and problem solving, we can design teams of humans and intelligent machines to adapt faster and perform better than human-only, machine-only, or heuristically informed human-machine teams.
Still interesting? Yes.
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JP: What is the demonstration or testable hypothesis related to this new thing?
Hypothesis:
The world is changing and we need to change with it.
Still interesting? Yes.
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JP: What is the impact? Hybrid team design is relevant to a diverse set of collective activities
Activity Team members
Machine elements
Today Tomorrow
Develop complex software Programmers Code correction • Architecture optimizer• System resource emulator
Deliver goods to users through complex network
Logisticians Scheduling tools • Plan formulation and diagnosis aids
• UxV delivery
Discover new drugs ChemistsBiologistsPharmacologists
High throughput testing • Automated compound synthesis
Design a space probe Project leaderSubsystem
engineers
• Design tools • Modeling and simulation
tools
• Automated design• Decision and interaction
facilitator
Control and manage an air battle
PlannersPilots
• Decision aids• UAVs
• Automatic Plan formulation• UAV swarm
Conduct infantry operations in a megacity
Squad leaderRiflemen
Communications (radios, phones)
• UAV/UGV• Autonomous EW operations
Machine intelligence is not just an agent, but manifested in the interaction fabric between humans and machines – potentially managing the information flows and amplifying the
problem solving capability of the team
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JM: What is the impact?
Help these people, somehow, someday.
By Tommy Bellegarde - http://www.1stmardiv.marines.mil/News/NewsArticleDisplay/tabid/8585/Article/88030/marines-fast-reaction-saves-life.aspx, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=18550511
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• If we had complete clarity as to who this would be, we wouldn’t be sitting here….
• PM’s have lots of tools, but finite time and bandwidth:• Referrals/introductions to interesting researchers from other DARPA PM’s, and
Program Officers at other DoD agencies• Workshop – I held a workshop with ~10 people recommended to me from
academia, government (AFRL), industry in fall of 2015• Other workshops & conferences: ISAT “Centaurs that Work” meeting, November
2015• Request for Information: DARPA-SN-16-34, May 2016
JP: Who might the performers be?
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• Who exactly? It is rare to know.
• I look for• Clear technical chops• Evidence that at least one person on the team, preferably the leader, knows how
to get things done
JM: Who might the performers be?
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JP: Can I answer Heilmeier?
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JM: Can I answer Heilmeier?
• What are you trying to do? Articulate your objectives using absolutely no jargon.
• How is it done today, and what are the limits of current practice?
• What is new in your approach and why do you think it will be successful?
• Who cares? If you succeed, what difference will it make?
• What are the risks?
• How much will it cost?
• How long will it take?
• What are the mid-term and final “exams” to check for success?
All questions are not created equal.Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)
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A-Teams:
Abstractions and formalisms for dynamic, adaptive team structureNew approaches and abstractions for team cognition and problem solvingIntegrated approaches
Re-thinking wargaming: See DARPA RFI SN-17-41
JP: What am I looking for?
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Potentially new program coming soon (hopefully)
• Focus on technologies for tactical, operational, or strategic deception
JM: What am I looking for?
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