Download - Sustainable Resilient Energy Infrastructure
Sustainable Resilient Energy Infrastructure
Peter Evans, PhDVice PresidentCenter for Global Enterprise
April 7, 2015
CSIS Global Sustainability Series
Washington, DC
Resilience to what?
Types of Shocks/ Disruptions
Geophysical Hydrological Meteorological Climatological
• Earthquake
• Volcano
• Mass Movement [Dry]
RockfallLandslideAvalancheSubsidencer
• FloodsGeneral FloodFlash FloodStorm SurgeCoastal Flood
• Mass Movement[Wet]
RockfallLandslideAvalancheSubsidence
• StormsTropical CycloneExtra-Tropical CycloneLocal Storm
• Extreme TempHeat WaveCold WaveExtreme Winter Condition
• Drought
• WildfireForest FireLand Fire
Source: Adapted from Centre for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters (2010)
Who is vulnerable?
~60% of major cities/ ~1 billion people at risk to at least 1 major natural disaster
*Risks to
cyclones,
droughts,
earthquakes,
floods, landslides,
and volcanic
eruptions
Source: UN DESA/Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision
*Notes: Includes cities with more than 750,000 inhabitants in 2011.
Hazards
World’s major cities face multiple natural hazards*
World-wide natural disasters 2014
Source: Munich Re, 2013
Geophysical events
(earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)
Meteorological events
(storm)
Selection of significant
Natural catastrophes
Natural catastrophes Hydrological events
(flood, mass movement)
Climatological events
(extreme temperature, drought, wildfire)
Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As of January 2015
Major Loss Events
World-wide natural disaster trends
Source: “NAT CAT 2014: What’s Going on with the Weather?” Munich Re, January 7, 2015
Annual rate of events has more than doubled since 1980
New public policy imperativeBuilding resilient and sustainable infrastructure (RSI)
Source: P. Evans, 2013
“RSI”
Status
Quo
Greener
Environmental
footprint
reduction
H
L
Robust
ResilientL H
What is resilience?
1 Diversification
3 Couple / decouple
4 Pooling/ coordination
Redundancy5
2 Intelligence
Resilience… the
ability to bounce back faster after a stress or shock, endure greater stress or shock, and/or minimize the impact of a stress or shock.
Diverse solutions
Greater network linkages raise risk of cascading failures
Truck
network
Railroad
network
Natural gas
pipelines
Shale revolution is
creating incentives for new
network connections that
previously did not exits
Problem of network linkages Example of rail + natural gas + trucking
Timing… Where should we invest?
Time
Critical
Assets
Risk Mitigation Recovery
Disaster
Preparation
Response
Source: Adapted from World Economic Forum, “A Vision for Managing Natural Disaster Risk”, April 2011
Before, during or after shocks?
Business continuity
Before During After
Who pays?Flows of disaster recovery funding
Rupinder Paul Khandpur, Naren Ramakrishnan, James Bohlandy, Discovery Analytics Center, Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech, 2014
1989 Loma Prieta earthquake
• Major infrastructure across the Bay Area was destroyed or closed for an extended period
• Damage exceeded $6 billion
• Recovery funding often involves a complex array of organizations and flows of funding
Post-disaster financial flows
Post Disaster Recovery Funding
Rupinder Paul Khandpur, Naren Ramakrishnan, James Bohlandy, Discovery Analytics Center, Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech, 2014
Are we doing enough to spur innovation?New products, services, business models, policy approaches
CROSS THE
CHASM
SCALE THE
BUSINESS
RUN THE
BUSINESS
OPTIMIZE
THE
BUSINESS
1 2 3 4 5
GET TO
MARKET
CommercializationEarly Stage
Source: P. Evans, Future of Energy, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, April 23, 2013.
Our Energy Future
Some key challenges
Establishing resilient and sustainable energy systems
• Timing… incentivizing right allocation of resilience investment before, during and after shocks
• Funding… Resolving the issues of who pays… tax payers, rate payers, others?
• Innovation… Assessing where innovation can be encouraged that achieves both sustainability and resilience goals.