OECD EMPLOYER
BRAND
Playbook
1
PISA 2012 Strong performers
and successful reformers
in education
Andreas Schleicher
Brazil, 6 December 2013
2 PISA in brief
• Over half a million students… – representing 28 million 15-year-olds in 65 countries/economies
… took an internationally agreed 2-hour test… – Goes beyond testing whether students can
reproduce what they were taught…
… to assess students’ capacity to extrapolate from what they know and creatively apply their knowledge in novel situations
– Mathematics, reading, science, problem-solving, financial literacy
– Total of 390 minutes of assessment material
… and responded to questions on… – their personal background, their schools
and their engagement with learning and school
• Parents, principals and system leaders provided data on… – school policies, practices, resources and institutional factors that
help explain performance differences .
What do 15-year-olds know… …and what can they do with what they know?
No country improved learning outcomes faster than Brazil…
…but Brazil still has a long way to go
3
Change in performance between PISA 2003 and 2012
Indonesia
Thailand
Russian Fed.
United States
Latvia
Spain
Norway Luxembourg
Ireland
Austria
Switzerland Japan
Liechtenstein
Korea
Brazil
Tunisia
Mexico
Uruguay
Turkey
Greece
Italy
Portugal
Hungary
Poland
Slovak Republic
OECD average
Germany
Sweden
France
Denmark
Iceland
Czech Republic
New Zealand Australia
Macao-China
Belgium
Canada
Netherlands
Finland
Hong Kong-China
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
350 400 450 500 550 600
Ave
rag
e a
nn
ual m
ath
em
ati
cs
sc
ore
ch
an
ge
Average mathematics performance in PISA 2003
Imp
rovin
g p
erfo
rma
nce
D
ete
riora
ting
perfo
rma
nce
PISA 2003 performance below the OECD average PISA 2003 performance
above the OECD average
Fig I.2.18 4
B
o No country improved enrolment faster
– 15-year-olds enrolled • 2003: 65%
• 2012: 78%
o No country saw steeper performance gains since 2003
– 35 score points on the mathematics scale observed
– 44 score points adjusting for the ‘drag’ from newly enrolled students
o With that pace Brazil will catch up with the United States in 18 years and the OECD average in 21 years .
5 The Brazilian miracle
Performance of countries in a level playing field
How the world would look if students around the world were living in similar social and economic conditions
6
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
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Mean score at the country level before adjusting for socio-economic status
Mean score at the country level after adjusting for socio economic status
Mathematics performance in a level playing field Mean mathematics performance after accounting for socio-economic status
Fig II.3.3 7
US would rank lower in a level playing field: • Ranks 3rd in wealth per person (explains 12%) • Ranks 5th in spending per student • Has average share of disadvantaged students • Ranks 6th in parental attainment • Has 6th largest share of immigrant students
(explains 4%)
The dream of social mobility
In some countries it is close to a reality
8
0
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8
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%
Percentage of resilient students
More than 10
% resilient Between 5%-10% of resilient students Less than 5%
Fig II.2.4 9
Socio-economically disadvantaged students not only score lower in mathematics, they also report lower levels of engagement, drive, motivation and self-beliefs. Resilient students break this link and share many characteristics of advantaged high-achievers.
A resilient student is situated in the bottom quarter of
the PISA index of economic, social and cultural
status (ESCS) in the country of assessment and
performs in the top quarter of students among all
countries, after accounting for socio-economic status.
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Score
10 Social background and school performance - Brazil
Belo
w leve
l 1
Leve
l 1
Leve
l 2
Leve
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Leve
l 4
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PISA index of social, economic and cultural status
Private school
Public school in rural area
Public school in urban area
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e Performance advantage of public schools
Performance advantage of private schools
Differences in mathematics performance between private and public
schools shrink considerably after accounting for socio-economic status
Observed performance difference
After accounting for students’ and schools’ socio-economic status
Fig IV.1.19
-2,00
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Difference between socio-economically disadvantaged and socio-economically advantaged schools
Educational resources are more problematic in disadvantaged
schools in most countries
Advantaged and private schools
reported better educational
resources
Disadvantaged and public schools
reported better educational
resources
Fig IV.3.8
Math teaching ≠ math teaching PISA = reason mathematically and understand, formulate, employ
and interpret mathematical concepts, facts and procedures
13
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Focus on conceptual understanding Fig I.3.1b 14
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Students' exposure to applied mathematics Fig I.3.1c 15
430
450
470
490
510
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0
Me
an
sc
ore
in
ma
the
ma
tic
s
Index of exposure to applied mathematics
rarely sometimes frequently never
Relationship between mathematics performance
and students' exposure to applied mathematics Fig I.3.2 16
OECD countries
All participating countries and economies
17 17 L
essons f
rom
hig
h p
erf
orm
ers
Catching up with the top-performers
Low impact on outcomes
High impact on outcomes
Low feasibility High feasibility
Money pits
Must haves
Low hanging fruits
Quick wins
18 18 L
essons f
rom
hig
h p
erf
orm
ers
Low impact on outcomes
High impact on outcomes
Low feasibility High feasibility
Money pits
Must haves
Low hanging fruits
Quick wins
Commitment to universal achievement
Gateways, instructional systems
Capacity at point of delivery
Incentive structures and accountability
Resources where they yield most
A learning system Coherence
19 19 L
essons f
rom
hig
h p
erf
orm
ers
Low impact on outcomes
High impact on outcomes
Low feasibility High feasibility
Money pits
Must haves
Low hanging fruits
Quick wins
Commitment to universal achievement
Gateways, instructional systems
Capacity at point of delivery
Incentive structures and accountability
Resources where they yield most
A learning system Coherence
A commitment to education and the belief that competencies can be learned and therefore all children can achieve Universal educational standards and personalization as
the approach to heterogeneity in the student body…
… as opposed to a belief that students have different destinations to be met with different expectations, and selection/stratification as the approach to heterogeneity
Clear articulation who is responsible for ensuring student success and to whom
United States
Poland
Hong Kong-China
Brazil
New Zealand
Greece
Uruguay
United Kingdom
Estonia Finland
Albania
Croatia
Latvia
Slovak Republic Luxembourg
Germany
Lithuania
Austria
Czech Republic
Chinese Taipei
France
Thailand
Japan
Turkey Sweden
Hungary Australia
Israel
Canada
Ireland Bulgaria
Jordan
Chile
Macao-China
U.A.E.
Belgium
Netherlands
Spain
Argentina
Indonesia
Denmark
Kazakhstan
Peru
Costa Rica
Switzerland
Montenegro
Tunisia
Iceland
Slovenia
Qatar
Singapore
Portugal
Norway
Colombia
Malaysia
Mexico
Liechtenstein
Korea
Serbia
Russian Fed.
Romania
Viet Nam
Italy
Shanghai-China
R² = 0.36
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
-0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00 1,20
Me
an
ma
the
ma
tics
perf
orm
an
ce
Mean index of mathematics self-efficacy
OE
CD
ave
rag
e
Countries where students have stronger beliefs
in their abilities perform better in mathematics 20 Fig III.4.5
Perceived self-responsibility for failure
in mathematics
Percentage of students who reported "agree" or "strongly agree" with the following statements:
0 20 40 60 80 100
I’m not very good at solving mathematics problems
My teacher did not explain the concepts wellthis week
This week I made bad guesses on the quiz
Sometimes the course material is too hard
The teacher did not get students interested inthe material
Sometimes I am just unlucky
%
Brazil Shanghai-China OECD average
Fig III.3.6 21
US B
The parent factor
Students whose parents have high educational expectations for them tend to report more perseverance, greater intrinsic
motivation to learn mathematics, and more confidence in their own ability to solve mathematics problems than students of
similar background and academic performance, whose parents hold less ambitious expectations for them.
22
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Germ
any
Belg
ium
(F
lem
ish)
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g-C
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a
Cro
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a
Hung
ary
Pe
rce
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ge
-po
int
ch
an
ge
Percentage-point change in arriving late for school that is associated with parents expecting the child to complete a university degree
Parents’ expectations for their child have a strong
influence on students’ behaviour towards school 23 Fig III.6.11
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0,40
0,45
0,50
Belg
ium
(F
lem
ish)
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e
Change in the index of intrinsic motivation to learn mathematics that is associated with parents expecting the child to complete a university degree
Parents’ high expectations can nurture
students’ enjoyment in learning mathematics 24 Fig III.6.11
25 25 L
essons f
rom
hig
h p
erf
orm
ers
Low impact on outcomes
High impact on outcomes
Low feasibility High feasibility
Money pits
Must haves
Low hanging fruits
Quick wins
Commitment to universal achievement
Gateways, instructional systems
Capacity at point of delivery
Incentive structures and accountability
Resources where they yield most
A learning system Coherence
Clear ambitious goals that are shared across the system and aligned with high stakes gateways and instructional systems
Well established delivery chain through which curricular goals translate into instructional systems, instructional practices and student learning (intended, implemented and achieved)
High level of metacognitive content of instruction …
USA Poland
Hong Kong-China
Brazil
New Zealand
Greece
Uruguay
UK
Estonia
Finland
Croatia
Latvia
Slovak Rep.
Luxembourg
Germany
Lithuania
Austria
Czech Rep.
Chinese Taipei
France
Thailand
Japan
Turkey
Sweden
Hungary
Australia
Israel
Canada
Ireland
Bulgaria
Jordan
Chile
Macao-China
UAE
Belgium
Netherlands
Spain
Argentina
Indonesia
Denmark
Kazakhstan
Peru
Costa Rica
Switzerland
Montenegro
Tunisia Iceland
Slovenia
Qatar
Singapore
Portugal
Norway
Colombia
Mexico Korea
Serbia Russian Fed.
Romania
Viet Nam
Italy
Shanghai-China
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Va
ria
tio
n in
ma
the
ma
tic
s p
erf
orm
an
ce
ex
pla
ine
d b
y s
oc
io-
ec
on
om
ic s
tatu
s (
%)
Percentage of students who have repeated at least one grade
Adjusted by per capita GDP
Grade repetition is negatively related to equity Fig IV.1.4
R2=0.05
Greater equity
Less equity
R2=0.07
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Ja
pa
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ited
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%
US
D, P
PP
s
Total cost per repeater (one grade year)
Total annual cost, relative to total expenditure on primary and secondary education (%)
Grade repetition is an expensive policy Fig IV.1.5
28 28 L
essons f
rom
hig
h p
erf
orm
ers
Low impact on outcomes
High impact on outcomes
Low feasibility High feasibility
Money pits
Must haves
Low hanging fruits
Quick wins
Commitment to universal achievement
Gateways, instructional systems
Capacity at point of delivery
Incentive structures and accountability
Resources where they yield most
A learning system Coherence
Capacity at the point of delivery
Attracting, developing and retaining high quality teachers and school leaders and a work organisation in which they can use their potential
Instructional leadership and human resource management in schools
Keeping teaching an attractive profession
System-wide career development …
-1,5
-1
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1
1,5
2
2,5
3
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nd
Tu
rke
yS
han
gh
ai-
Chin
aIs
rae
lC
olo
mbia
Pe
ruC
hile
Neth
erl
an
ds
Me
xic
oG
erm
an
yV
iet
Nam
Russia
n F
ed
.U
rug
ua
yN
orw
ay
Ka
za
kh
sta
nIn
do
nesia
Be
lgiu
mIt
aly
Ma
laysia
Au
str
alia
Bra
zil
Ice
lan
dU
.A.E
.S
ing
ap
ore
New
Zea
land
Ko
rea
Sw
itze
rlan
dE
sto
nia
Ma
cao
-Chin
aC
osta
Ric
aO
EC
D a
vera
ge
Sw
ed
en
Arg
en
tina
Tu
nis
iaA
ustr
iaQ
ata
rIr
ela
nd
Ch
ine
se
Ta
ipe
iF
rance
Den
ma
rkU
nite
d K
ing
do
mH
on
g K
on
g-C
hin
aA
lba
nia
Jap
an
Can
ad
aS
lova
k R
ep
ub
licL
atv
iaG
ree
ce
Un
ite
d S
tate
sC
zech
Rep
ublic
Cro
atia
Fin
land
Mo
nte
ne
gro
Rom
an
iaH
un
ga
ryL
ith
uan
iaS
love
nia
Sp
ain
Se
rbia
Po
rtug
al
Bu
lga
ria
Po
lan
d
Me
an
in
de
x
Mean index Top quarter of this index Bottom quarter of this index
Teacher shortage Fig IV.3.5
-4,00
-3,00
-2,00
-1,00
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
Sin
ga
po
reQ
ata
rA
ustr
alia
Ch
inese
Taip
ei
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Hong
Kon
g-C
hin
aJa
pa
nS
loven
iaF
ran
ce
Un
ited
Sta
tes
U.A
.E.
Pola
nd
Ma
ca
o-C
hin
aB
elg
ium
Ca
na
da
Austr
iaR
om
ania
Ne
w Z
eala
nd
Ne
the
rla
nds
Hung
ary
Port
ug
al
Lithu
ania
Sha
ngh
ai-
Ch
ina
Uru
gua
yIr
ela
nd
Germ
any
Kore
aO
EC
D a
ve
rag
eS
wede
nC
ze
ch R
ep
ub
licIt
aly
Luxe
mb
ou
rgL
atv
iaS
pa
inB
ulg
aria
Denm
ark
Esto
nia
Norw
ay
Fin
land
Ma
laysia
Icela
nd
Gre
ece
Isra
el
Chile
Turk
ey
Alb
an
iaJo
rdan
Ru
ssia
n F
ed.
Vie
t N
am
Mo
nte
neg
roC
roa
tia
Bra
zil
Arg
en
tin
aS
lovak R
epu
blic
Serb
iaT
haila
nd
Kaza
kh
sta
nIn
do
ne
sia
Me
xic
oC
osta
Ric
aP
eru
Tunis
iaC
olo
mb
ia
Me
an
in
de
x
Mean index Top quarter of this index Bottom quarter of this index
Adequacy of educational resources Fig IV.3.8
31 31 L
essons f
rom
hig
h p
erf
orm
ers
Low impact on outcomes
High impact on outcomes
Low feasibility High feasibility
Money pits
Must haves
Low hanging fruits
Quick wins
Commitment to universal achievement
Gateways, instructional systems
Capacity at point of delivery
Incentive structures and accountability
Resources where they yield most
A learning system Coherence
Incentives, accountability, knowledge management
Aligned incentive structures
For students How gateways affect the strength, direction, clarity and nature of the
incentives operating on students at each stage of their education
Degree to which students have incentives to take tough courses and study hard
Opportunity costs for staying in school and performing well
For teachers Make innovations in pedagogy and/or organisation
Improve their own performance and the performance of their colleagues
Pursue professional development opportunities that lead to stronger pedagogical practices
A balance between vertical and lateral accountability
Effective instruments to manage and share knowledge and spread innovation – communication within the system and with stakeholders around it
A capable centre with authority and legitimacy to act
Hong Kong-China
Brazil
Uruguay
Albania
Croatia
Latvia
Lithuania
Chinese Taipei
Thailand Bulgaria
Jordan
Macao-China
UAE Argentina
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
Peru
Costa Rica
Tunisia
Qatar
Singapore
Colombia
Malaysia
Serbia
Romania
Viet Nam
Shanghai-China
USA
Poland
New Zealand
Greece
UK
Estonia
Finland
Slovak Rep.
Luxembourg
Germany Austria
Czech Rep.
France
Japan
Turkey
Sweden
Hungary Australia
Israel
Canada
Chile
Belgium
Netherlands Spain
Denmark
Switzerland
Iceland
Slovenia
Portugal
Norway
Korea
Italy
R² = 0,13
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
-1,5 -1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5
Ma
the
ma
tics
perf
orm
an
ce
(sc
ore
po
ints
)
Index of school responsibility for curriculum and assessment (index points)
Countries that grant schools autonomy over curricula and
assessments tend to perform better in mathematics Fig IV.1.15
Schools with more autonomy perform better than schools with
less autonomy in systems with more collaboration
Teachers don't participate inmanagement
Teachers participate inmanagement455
460
465
470
475
480
485
Less school autonomy
More school autonomy
Score points
School autonomy for resource allocation x System's level of teachers
participating in school management
Across all participating countries and economies
Fig IV.1.17
Schools with more autonomy perform better than schools with
less autonomy in systems with more accountability arrangements
School data not public
School data public464
466
468
470
472
474
476
478
Less school autonomy
More school autonomy
Score points
School autonomy for curriculum and assessment
x system's level of posting achievement data publicly
Fig IV.1.16
No standardisedmath policy
Standardised mathpolicy455
460
465
470
475
480
485
Less school autonomy
More school autonomy
Schools with more autonomy perform better than schools with
less autonomy in systems with standardised math policies
Score points
School autonomy for curriculum and assessment
x system's extent of implementing a standardised math policy (e.g. curriculum and
instructional materials)
Fig IV.1.16
36 36 L
essons f
rom
hig
h p
erf
orm
ers
Low impact on outcomes
High impact on outcomes
Low feasibility High feasibility
Money pits
Must haves
Low hanging fruits
Quick wins
Commitment to universal achievement
Gateways, instructional systems
Capacity at point of delivery
Incentive structures and accountability
Resources where they yield most
A learning system Coherence
Investing resources where they can make most of a difference
Alignment of resources with key challenges (e.g. attracting the most talented teachers to the most challenging classrooms)
Effective spending choices that prioritise high quality teachers over smaller classes
Money makes a difference…
…but only up to a point
37
Spending per student from the age of 6 to 15 and
mathematics performance in PISA 2012
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic Estonia
Israel
Poland
Korea
Portugal
New Zealand
Canada Germany
Spain
France
Italy
Singapore
Finland
Japan
Slovenia Ireland
Iceland
Netherlands
Sweden
Belgium
UK
Australia Denmark
United States
Austria
Norway
Switzerland
Luxembourg
Viet Nam
Jordan
Peru
Thailand
Malaysia
Uruguay
Turkey
Colombia
Tunisia
Mexico Montenegro
Brazil
Bulgaria
Chile
Croatia Lithuania
Latvia
Hungary
Shanghai-China
R² = 0,01
R² = 0,37
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 180 000 200 000
Ma
the
ma
tics
perf
orm
an
ce
(sc
ore
po
ints
)
Average spending per student from the age of 6 to 15 (USD, PPPs)
Cumulative expenditure per student less than USD 50 000
Cumulative expenditure per student USD 50 000 or more
Fig IV.1.8
Hong Kong-China
Brazil
Uruguay
Croatia
Latvia
Chinese Taipei
Thailand
Bulgaria
Jordan
Macao-China
UAE
Argentina
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
Peru
Costa Rica Montenegro
Tunisia
Qatar
Singapore
Colombia
Malaysia Serbia
Romania
Viet Nam
Shanghai-China
USA
Poland
New Zealand
Greece
UK
Estonia
Finland
Slovak Rep.
Luxembourg
Germany
Austria France
Japan
Turkey Sweden Hungary
Australia Israel
Canada
Ireland
Chile
Belgium
Spain Denmark
Switzerland
Iceland
Slovenia
Portugal Norway
Mexico
Korea
Italy
R² = 0,19
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
-0,500,511,5
Ma
the
ma
tics
perf
orm
an
ce
(sc
ore
po
ints
)
Equity in resource allocation (index points)
Countries with better performance in mathematics tend
to allocate educational resources more equitably
Greater
equity Less
equity
Adjusted by per capita GDP
Fig IV.1.11
SHA
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Sh
an
gh
ai-
Chin
aH
on
g K
on
g-C
hin
aF
rance
Slo
va
k R
ep
ub
licM
acao
-Ch
ina
Italy
Sw
itze
rlan
dQ
ata
rC
zech
Rep
ublic
Isra
el
Th
aila
nd
Arg
en
tina
Den
ma
rkB
elg
ium
Vie
t N
am
Ge
rma
ny
U.A
.E.
Unite
d K
ing
do
mG
ree
ce
Indo
nesia
Sp
ain
Ch
ine
se
Ta
ipe
iS
ing
ap
ore
Jap
an
Fin
land
Uru
gua
yP
ola
nd
Sw
ed
en
Au
str
alia
New
Zea
land
OE
CD
avera
ge
Neth
erl
an
ds
Ma
laysia
Au
str
iaL
uxe
mb
ourg
Bu
lga
ria
Me
xic
oJord
an
Pe
ruIc
ela
nd
Po
rtug
al
Bra
zil
Tu
rke
yR
om
an
iaC
an
ad
aN
orw
ay
Tu
nis
iaL
ith
uan
iaC
hile
Se
rbia
Ko
rea
Un
ite
d S
tate
sR
ussia
n F
ed
.C
osta
Ric
aK
aza
kh
sta
nM
on
ten
eg
roC
olo
mbia
Cro
atia
Slo
ve
nia
Ire
lan
dL
atv
iaE
sto
nia
Sc
ore
po
int
dif
fere
nc
e
before accounting for students' socio-economic status after accounting for students' socio-economic status
Difference in mathematics performance,
by attendance at pre-primary school
Students who attended pre-primary
school perform better
Fig III.4.12 40
41 41 L
essons f
rom
hig
h p
erf
orm
ers
Low impact on outcomes
High impact on outcomes
Low feasibility High feasibility
Money pits
Must haves
Low hanging fruits
Quick wins
Commitment to universal achievement
Gateways, instructional systems
Capacity at point of delivery
Incentive structures and accountability
Resources where they yield most
A learning system Coherence
Coherence of policies and practices
Alignment of policies across all aspects of the system
Coherence of policies over sustained periods of time
Consistency of implementation
Fidelity of implementation (without excessive control)
CAN
42 42 L
essons f
rom
hig
h p
erf
orm
ers
Low impact on outcomes
High impact on outcomes
Low feasibility High feasibility
Money pits
Must haves
Low hanging fruits
Quick wins
Commitment to universal achievement
Gateways, instructional systems
Capacity at point of delivery
Incentive structures and accountability
Resources where they yield most
A learning system Coherence
43 43 L
essons f
rom
hig
h p
erf
orm
ers
Some students learn at high levels All students need to learn at high levels
Student inclusion
Routine cognitive skills, rote learning Learning to learn, complex ways of thinking, ways of working
Curriculum, instruction and assessment
Few years more than secondary High-level professional knowledge workers
Teacher quality
‘Tayloristic’, hierarchical Flat, collegial
Work organisation
Primarily to authorities Primarily to peers and stakeholders
Accountability
What it all means
The old bureaucratic system The modern enabling system
Thank you !
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