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Southern California Airport Exploratory Study 2.0
Tri-County Region:
Orange County Riverside County
San Diego County
Prepared by:
CSUSM FEMBA Class of 2015
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1
TABLEOFCONTENTS
EXECUTIVESUMMARY............................................................................................................1
CHAPTER1:TRI‐COUNTYREGION......................................................................................5Introduction............................................................................................................................................................5ResearchQuestions.................................................................................................................................................................6ScopeandLimitations............................................................................................................................................................6Methodology...............................................................................................................................................................................7
DefiningtheGeographicReach.........................................................................................................................8AirportProximity.....................................................................................................................................................................9
DescribingtheTri‐CountyRegion.................................................................................................................11SanDiegoCounty...................................................................................................................................................................11OrangeCounty.........................................................................................................................................................................12RiversideCounty....................................................................................................................................................................14
CurrentAverageAirTraveler.........................................................................................................................15Age................................................................................................................................................................................................17AverageHouseholdIncome...............................................................................................................................................17Education...................................................................................................................................................................................17FrequencyofTravel..............................................................................................................................................................17Race..............................................................................................................................................................................................18Summary....................................................................................................................................................................................18
Tri‐CountyRegionDemographics.................................................................................................................18Population.................................................................................................................................................................................18RacialandEthnicComposition........................................................................................................................................20Education...................................................................................................................................................................................21Socioeconomics.......................................................................................................................................................................21PropensityforTravel...........................................................................................................................................................23
Conclusions..........................................................................................................................................................24
CHAPTER2:AIRPORTBENCHMARKINGSTUDY.........................................................26Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................26ResearchQuestions...............................................................................................................................................................27ScopeandLimitations..........................................................................................................................................................27Methodology.............................................................................................................................................................................28DataCollection........................................................................................................................................................................29
DataAnalysisandResults................................................................................................................................61EnplanementCapacity.........................................................................................................................................................61AirTrafficPatterns(Domesticvs.International)....................................................................................................64EnplanementsperFlight(Domesticvs.International).........................................................................................66RatioofTotalEnplanements(AgainstMetropolitanAreaPopulation).........................................................68
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AirTrafficProjections..........................................................................................................................................................70Conclusions..........................................................................................................................................................73
CHAPTER3:GROUNDTRANSPORTATION....................................................................75Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................75ResearchQuestions...............................................................................................................................................................75ScopeandLimitations..........................................................................................................................................................76Methodology.............................................................................................................................................................................76
PrivateTransportation.....................................................................................................................................77Introduction.............................................................................................................................................................................77StateRoute76.........................................................................................................................................................................79Interstate5................................................................................................................................................................................82Highway78...............................................................................................................................................................................85Interstate15.............................................................................................................................................................................87EnvironmentalImpacts.......................................................................................................................................................88CapacityManagementforProposedAirport.............................................................................................................90
PublicTransportation......................................................................................................................................91Introduction.............................................................................................................................................................................91COASTER....................................................................................................................................................................................93BREEZE.......................................................................................................................................................................................94MetroLink..................................................................................................................................................................................96CommuterLink........................................................................................................................................................................98Amtrak........................................................................................................................................................................................99EnvironmentalImpacts.......................................................................................................................................................99CapacityManagementforProposedAirport..........................................................................................................100
ParkingInfrastructure...................................................................................................................................102Introduction..........................................................................................................................................................................102ParkingforPrivateTransportation............................................................................................................................104ParkingforPublicTransportationandRemoteParking...................................................................................106
Recommendations...........................................................................................................................................106PublicTransportation.......................................................................................................................................................106PrivateTransportation.....................................................................................................................................................107
CHAPTER4:EMPLOYMENTANDMULTIPLIEREFFECT..........................................110Introduction.......................................................................................................................................................110ResearchQuestions............................................................................................................................................................110Methodology..........................................................................................................................................................................111
AnalysisandResults........................................................................................................................................112ConstructionCostsandEmployment.........................................................................................................................112ConstructionEmployees&Wages...............................................................................................................................113
On‐AirportEmployment................................................................................................................................118
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ImpactofFreight/CargoonEmployment................................................................................................................122EmploymentCategories...................................................................................................................................................123RegionalEconomicImpact.............................................................................................................................................129
TheMultiplierEffect........................................................................................................................................129OpportunityLossfromAsianMarkets......................................................................................................................132
Conclusion..........................................................................................................................................................134
CHAPTER5:POLITICALCONSIDERATIONS................................................................135Introduction.......................................................................................................................................................135ResearchQuestions............................................................................................................................................................136Methodology..........................................................................................................................................................................136
Analysis................................................................................................................................................................137KeyPoliticalStakeholders...............................................................................................................................................137Benefits....................................................................................................................................................................................141Drawbacks..............................................................................................................................................................................142AlternativestoMCBCampPendleton........................................................................................................................147PoliticalStrategies..............................................................................................................................................................151
OpportunitiesforCollaboration..................................................................................................................153SANDAG...................................................................................................................................................................................153IRP(Inter‐regionalPartnership).................................................................................................................................154SanDiegoTri‐CountyFundingAreaCoordinatingCommittee.......................................................................155OtherPotentialPartnerships.........................................................................................................................................155
Conclusion..........................................................................................................................................................156
INTERNATIONALEXPLORATORYAIRPORTSTUDY2.0CONCLUSIONS............158ServingtheTravelNeedsoftheTri‐CountyPopulation......................................................................158IncreasingAir‐TravelCapacityforSouthernCalifornia......................................................................158BuildinganEfficientandSustainableGroundTransportSystem....................................................159CreatingJobsandBuildingtheEconomy..................................................................................................159
REFERENCES..........................................................................................................................161Chapter1.............................................................................................................................................................161Chapter2.............................................................................................................................................................163Chapter3.............................................................................................................................................................168Chapter4.............................................................................................................................................................172Chapter5.............................................................................................................................................................175
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ExecutiveSummary 1
EXECUTIVESUMMARY
The 2013 Exploratory Airport Study (EAS), conducted by the California State
UniversitySanMarcosMBACohortClassof2014, concluded thatSanDiego International
Airportwillbeincapableofhandlingtheregion’sairtravelneedsbeyond2035.SanDiego
InternationalAirport(SAN)currentlyoffers fewoptions for international traveldueto its
shortrunwayandlimitedspaceofexpansion.Thestudyevaluatedthreepotentiallocations
foranewairportwithinSanDiegoCounty.Itconcludedthattheonlyfeasiblelocationfora
newinternationalairportwithinthecountywouldbelocatedonornearthesouthernedge
ofCampPendletoninOceanside.Anewairportwouldrequiresomewherebetween5,000‐
6,000acresalong thesouthernedgeof themilitarybase.This represents less than5%of
125,000acresthatCampPendletonoccupies.
The 2014 Exploratory Airport Study (EAS), conducted by the California State
UniversitySanMarcosMBACohortClassof2015picksupwherethepreviousoneleftoff.It
explores the regional implications of an international airport in Oceanside, California.
Specifically, this report expands the definition of the airport’s reach beyond San Diego
County to include Southwest Riverside and Southern Orange Counties adjacent to the
proposedCampPendletonOceansidelocation.Forthepurposesofthisstudy,thisregionis
referred to as the Tri‐County region and the proposed airport is called the Southern
CaliforniaInternationalAirport(SCIA).Ineffect,thecurrentstudycompletelyreframesthe
conversationfromthelong‐discusseddebateoverwhereanewSanDiegoAirportmightbe
located, to a focusonbuilding an airport to serve theneedsof all of SouthernCalifornia.
TheregionservedbytheproposedSCIAwillstretchfromLosAngelesCaliforniatoTijuana,
Mexico.
Chapter 1 defines the Tri‐County region in terms of its driving distance from the
proposedairportsite.ResidentsofTri‐County–aswellasallSanDiegoCountyresidents–
are underserved compared to national averages in terms of reasonable access to a large
internationalairport. InternationaltravelerswishingtoreachSanDiego,andSanDiegans
wishing to travel internationally, are forced to connect through LAX or other major
international airports. Furthermore, the Tri‐County population is projected to reach 2.7
million – almost as large as the current SanDiego County population – over the next 25
years. A new international airport located in theTri‐County regionwouldprovidemuch‐
neededaccess to international travel for these residents, aswell as convenient access for
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ExecutiveSummary 2
internationalbusinessandleisuretravelerstotheregion.Thisalsoprovidesaccesstocross‐
bordertravelerswhocurrentlycommuteformTijuanatoLAX
TheTri‐Countyregionishometoanethnicallydiverse,welleducated,andrelatively
affluentpopulation.Ingeneral,residentsarerepresentativeoftoday’sflyingpublic.Infact,
theyaremorelikelytotravelinternationallythantheU.S.population,yettheyhavelimited
accesstointernationaltraveloptionsintheimmediateregion.CampPendletonishometo
40,000militarypersonnelandtheirfamilies,whowouldalsobenefitgreatlyfromhavingan
international airport to serve their non‐duty air travel needs. The region is also home to
someofSouthernCalifornia’smosticonictouristattractions.Inordertoestimatethesizeof
an international airport in Southern California, the Chapter 2 begins by investigating the
size and capacity of its existing and planned airport infrastructure including LosAngeles
International Airport (LAX), Long Beach (LGB), John Wayne (SNA), Ontario (ONT), San
DiegoInternational(SAN),andMcClellan‐Palomar(CLD). Studiesshowthatthatby2040,
these existing airportswill be insufficient tomeet the demands of the flying public even
afterplannedimprovementsarecompleted.Theywillfallshortofdemandbyanestimated
30‐40millionenplanements.This is approximately the samenumbercurrently servedby
SanFranciscoInternationalAirport(SFO).
The second part of Chapter 2 benchmarks the Tri‐County and San Diego regions
against other major metropolitan areas served by major international airports. These
includeNewYorkCity,servedbyJFK,LaGuardia,andNewarkairports;Chicago,servedby
O’Hare and Midway airports; San Francisco, served by SFO and Oakland airports; and
Dallas, servedbyDallas‐FortWorth andLoveField airports. The analysis highlights that
eachoftheseareasisservedbyasinglemajorinternationalairport(two,inthecaseofNew
York City) aswell as a large airport handling primarily domestic flights. Currently,more
than98percentofflightsintoandoutofSANaredomestic.Withsuchashortrunwayand
no room to expand, SAN (the primary airport for San Diego) cannot accommodate
international traffic. The benchmarking study demonstrates that SAN can and should
remain a vital domestic gateway, much like Midway, Oakland, and LaGuardia; SCIA in
Oceanside,withinjusta45‐60minutedriveforthemajorityoftheregion’spopulation,will
beabletoaccommodateinternationaltravel.
Commuting to and from LAX over long stretches of freeway only exacerbates the
region’stravelandenvironmentalproblems.TheproposedlocationofSCIAisconveniently
situated in Oceanside, California, which is a connecting point for currently underutilized
public transit systems from throughout the region. Chapter 3 investigates planned
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ExecutiveSummary 3
improvementsinthepublicandprivatetransportationinfrastructuresthatwillbeneeded
to offer efficient, environmentally friendly, and sustainable access to the airport. The
analysisindicatesthatcurrentandfutureplansfortransportationinfrastructureshouldbe
abletoaccommodatethegroundtransportationneedsofamajorinternationalairport.
Buildingamajorairport isacapital, labor,and time‐intensiveproject. Therecent
expansion of SAN took four years, while the construction of the Denver International
Airport,America’snewest, tooksixyears. However,suchtimeframesare forconstruction
only and do not include additional time required for obtaining government and voter
approvals, bidding, or design. Chapter 4 estimates the regional economic impacts of
buildingandoperatingamajor internationalairport in theTri‐Countyregion.Benchmark
analysis against recent projects indicates that during construction phase, the proposed
airportwillemployasmanyas11,000constructionworkers,manyofwhomwillrelocateto
NorthSanDiegoCounty.Onceopenedand fullyoperational, theairportwill attractmore
hospitality, transport andwarehousingbusiness to the region.By conservativeestimates,
the new airport will bring between 100,000 and 200,000 new offsite jobs to the region.
Thisiscomparabletothe189,000newoffsitejobscreatedbythenewDenverAirport.By
the time SCIA begins operations, new workers could potentially infuse an additional $3
billionto$7billionintothelocaleconomy.
Theneedforanewinternationalairportisclear.Currentandplannedinfrastructure
in Southern Californiawill soon be insufficient tomeet the air travel needs of the flying
public. Thesetravelersalsovoteandlivewithintheregion. Thus,thepolitical influences
and implications on the decision to build the airport require both time and careful
consideration.Chapter5addressestheseconcerns.Therearemanystakeholderswhowill
haveavoiceinwhetherornotthisprojectcanbelaunched.Suchaprojectwouldrequire
agreement among stakeholders including the U.S.Military at Camp Pendleton, San Diego
County voters, local businesses and communities, and many regional and national
government agencies. A series of in‐depth interviews elicited the concerns and interests
fromrepresentativesoftheseparties.Theyareincludedanddiscussedinthereport.
Politicalandpersonal concernsandoppositionaside,all stakeholders interviewed
agree that a new international airportwould provide tremendous benefits to the region.
These benefits include increased air travel, tourism, and business and community
development.Nonetheless,thereareanumberoflegitimateconcernsanddrawbacksthat
willneedtobeaddressedandsurmounted.Themilitaryrepresentsnearlyone‐thirdofthe
economyofSanDiegoCounty.Theyhavebeenandwillremainavitalpartofthelifeofthe
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ExecutiveSummary 4
Tri‐County Region. Thus, any discussions concerning the new airport on or near Camp
Pendletonmustnotonlyaddressmilitaryconcerns,butmustseektoenlistthemilitaryas
active partners and beneficiaries of the new facility. The report ends with a series of
recommendations for building upon existing relationships and cooperative efforts among
leadersthroughouttheTri‐Countyregion.Ifproperlyexecuted,theserecommendationswill
helpmaketheconceptofSouthernCaliforniaInternationalAirportareality.
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 5
CHAPTER1:TRI‐COUNTYREGION
Introduction
The2013CaliforniaStateUniversitySanMarcos(CSUSM)MBAAirportExploratory
Study1.0(EAS2013)concludedthatthesiteforanadditionalinternationalairportinSan
Diegoisbest locatedatMCASCampPendletoninOceanside.Whiletherecommendedsite
for the proposed Southern California International Airport (SCIA) is in North San Diego
County,itisalsoadjacenttoSouthOrangeandSouthwestRiversidecounties.Anewairport
locatedatthissitewillbepositionedtoservethesethreecounties. Therefore, itbecomes
necessarytodefineanddescribethisTri‐Countyregion.
The Tri‐County region can be defined on a variety of dimensions, including
population demographics, regional trends,
and growth patterns. Defining the region’s
geographicboundarywillprovideafocusfor
the 2014 CSUSM MBA Airport Exploratory
Study 2.0 of the proposed airport site. The
respective government agencies and
associations have defined geographic
boundarieswithineachofthethreecounties
for various purposes. For example, Orange
CountyandSanDiegoCountycanbedivided
into north and south sub‐regions.
Population clusters, particularly in the
westernportionRiversideCountycanbeusedtodescriberegionswithinit.TheTri‐County
regionasawholewillbedefinedastheareamadeupofacombinationoftheseestablished
regions fromwithineachcounty.Therefore, theTri‐Countyregion for thepurposeof this
study comprises North San Diego, South Orange, and Southwest Riverside counties as
illustratedinFigure1.1.
The proposed international airport will attract travelers within a reasonable
distancefromtheCampPendletonsite.Thisdistance,orestimatedreach,canbedefinedby
factors such asdrive timesor areaswithunderserved air travel needs. It is important to
evaluateandcomparethecurrentandaveragedrivetimesthroughouttheUnitedStatesand
Figure1.1:Tri‐countygeographicboundaries.
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 6
in the Tri‐County region to determine the expected reach of an additional international
airportservingtheregion.Thischapterofthe2014studyexploresthosepossibilities.
In addition to defining a geographic distance surrounding theproposed airport, a
demographicprofileoftheareaisvaluableindescribingtheTri‐Countyregion. Thethree
countieshaveexperienceddifferentpatternsofnoteworthypopulationgrowthinthepast
fewdecades, and specificdemographic groupshavebeenprojected for continuedgrowth
intothefuture.SanDiegodemographicsandgrowthwereexploredbytheEAS2013.Given
anewfocusontheTri‐Countyregion,thisstudywillexpandthedemographicresearchto
includeSouthOrangeandSouthwestRiversidecounties.
ResearchQuestions
Thefollowingresearchquestionswillbeaddressed:
1. What specific geographic boundaries in North San Diego, South Orange, and
SouthwestRiversidecountiesdefinetheTri‐Countyregion?
2. What demographic data provide comparison to the air travel needs of the Tri‐
Countyregion?
3. HowdoesthehistoryandprojectedgrowthofeachcountydescribetheTri‐County
region?
4. HowwilltheproposedairportservetheprojecteddemographicmakeupoftheTri‐
Countyregion?
ScopeandLimitations
Whilethisdocumentaimstocapturecurrentandall‐inclusivedatainexaminingthe
Tri‐County region, limitations occur based on the availability, transparency, and
comparabilityofdata.Forexample,U.S.Censusdataisavailableinten‐yearincrementswith
themostrecentdatasetcompiledin2010.Thisposesachallengeofaccountingforthemost
up‐to‐date demographic data for 2014 aswell as syncing sources other thanU.S. Census
data in analyzing trends. Similarly, ESRI Business Analyst Online (BAO) data supports
currentmunicipalandgovernmentaldatasets,whicharenotalwaysavailableforanalyzing
prioryearsbut rathergrouphistoricaldata intomulti‐yeardatasets todemonstratepast
trends.TheCaliforniaDepartmentofFinance(DOF)projectspopulationanddemographics
for fifty years into the future. However, DOF presents the race/ethnicity demographic
differentlythanESRIBAO.Atableofthedemographicdatafrombothsourcesisincludedin
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 7
theappendix.AnalysisoftheU.S.Censussourcedatawasusedtoreconcilethecategorical
differences.
When looking towards the future, projected forecasts represent an educated
prediction,whichmayormaynotbe accurate as futureuntoldeventsmight significantly
impact population anddemographic trends. To account for these issues, the teamused a
trusted and accurate predictor through the use of DOF projections. Additionally, further
researchisneededontheMillennialgeneration,asthisgroupwillbethefutureairtravelers
of 2040. Current research suggests that there are many differences in terms of values,
communication, and technology among the millennial consumers compared to their
predecessorsfromGenerationXandtheBabyBoomergenerations.Inordertosuccessfully
understand and tap into the needs and behaviors of this emerging generation, further
generationalresearchisneeded.
Methodology
TheproposedairportwillbesituatedneartheCampPendletonMarineCorpsBase,
located at the nexus of three counties: San Diego, Orange, and Riverside.
County governmentshavewell‐definedboundariesof sub‐regionswithineach. However,
theTri‐Countyregionthatthisstudyconsidershasnotbeenofficiallydefinedbyanyofthe
three counties. This study proposes definitions for the region along a number of
dimensions using information from various governmental councils such as the Southern
CaliforniaAssociationofGovernments (SCAG)andSanDiegoAssociationofGovernments
(SANDAG).SCAGandSANDAGcreatecomprehensiveplanstoimplementstateandfederal
mandates for transportation, land use, housing needs assessments, air quality, and
community sustainability for regional growth. These government associations provide
informationfordefiningsub‐regionswithintheareaunderstudy.
This study relies on analysis of secondary data sources, including data retrieved
from these governmental councils, from the EAS 2013, and regional Geographical
InformationSystems(GIS).GISisusedtocapture,store,analyze,manage,anddisplaymany
types of geographical data including demographics captured by the U.S. Census Bureau.
CSUSM uses ESRI for geographical data studies. ESRI Community and Business Analyst
modulescreateGISdatamaps through thecompilationofcountyandmunicipaldatasets
fromzipcodes,censustracts,andblockgroups,providingacomprehensiveandconsistent
viewoftheregion.Figures1.1,1.2,1.3,and1.4werecreatedwiththeESRIBusinessAnalyst
Software.TomaximizethebenefitsprovidedbytheGISresources,theteamworkedclosely
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 8
withCSUSMGISsubjectmatterexpert,AllenRisley,toestablishconsistentboundariesthat
provideuniformdatasetscapturedandcomparedthroughouttheanalysis.
Forthepurposeofdepictinggrowthtrends,andtoaccuratelydisplaythelandscape
of the Tri‐County region at the estimated time of the proposed airport’s completion, the
teampreparedforecaststodemonstratetheprojectedgrowingandchangingdemographics
oftheregion.TheteamusedexistingforecastdatafromDOFratherthanperformingtrend
analysisofcurrentandpastpopulations.Trendanalysisforgrowthisaninaccurateprocess
andcanleadtodistortedfigures.Agovernment‐planningagencysuchastheDOFprovides
themostreliablepredictionsforregionalgrowth.WhereasU.S.CensusdataunderliesDOF
data,censusdatawasusedtounderstandandreconcilewithESRIBAOdemographicdata.
Secondaryresourcesalsoprovidedthedatausedtomapthegeographicreachofthe
airport. The data were accessed through comparative airport studies and marketing
analysis reports toobjectivelydetermine the targetmarket for air travel to and from the
proposed airport. This defined target market was compared with the region’s
demographics and growth trends to determine the proposed airport’s realistic regional
scope and reach. Additionally, the current and average distances of international and
domesticair travelers to theirclosestairports throughout theUnitedStateswereusedas
benchmarksandconsideredwhendefiningthisreach.
DefiningtheGeographicReach
InordertodiscusstheimpactofaninternationalairportlocatedinNorthSanDiego
County,thegeographicreachofthisairportmustbedefinedandmeasured.Thefirststepin
this process benchmarked thepopulationdensity andproximity tomajor airports across
the United States and California. The geographic reach of LAX, the closest major
international airport to the proposed airport, served as the primary point of such
comparisons.AsthelargestairportinCalifornia,LAXservesasprawlingmetropolitanarea
similar insize to theTri‐Countyregion,and thedrivinghabitsof its customerswill likely
resemble those of the proposed airport future customers making it an ideal model for
comparison.Lastly,theunderservedareasintheTri‐Countyregion,thosebeyondthereach
oftheexistingairportswhoseresidentsmaytravelfurtherduetolimitedairtraveloptions,
wereevaluated.
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 9
AirportProximity
Currently, 90% of the United States population lives within 58miles of a major
airport while 90% of Californians live within 43miles (Pearson, M., 2012). However, to
createameasurementmoremeaningfultoSouthernCaliforniaresidents,distanceswillbe
consideredindrivetimes.Therefore,90%ofAmericanslivewithina60‐minutedriveofa
majorairportand90%ofCalifornianslivewithina45‐minutedrive.Furtherexaminationof
thepopulationdensitiesincloseproximitytomajorairportsdemonstratesthattheaverage
Americanliveswithin25milesand30minutes,whileCalifornianslivewithin13milesand
15minutes(Pearson,M.,2012).
AnexaminationofLAXdepartingpassengers reveals that77%originate fromLos
AngelesCounty.Morethan60%ofitstravelersoriginatewithina30‐mileradius,withthe
mostcommonareasoforiginbeingWesternLosAngelesandAnaheim.AminorityofLAX
passengers comes from the surrounding counties, with 13% and 1.5% originating from
Orange and Riverside, respectively (AMPG, 2007). Although the majority of passengers
come from a relatively small radius around LAX, the international hub of Southern
Californiadrawspassengerstravelinguptoapproximatelytwohoursaway.
The percentage of the California population that does not live within an average
drivetimeof45‐minuteswillbecategorizedasresidinginan“underservedarea.”ESRIwas
used to estimate the portion of the Tri‐County region that would be considered
underserved. This exercise identified any sub‐regional areas that are not includedwithin
the average drive time from an
airport,indicatingtheseresidents
maydrive farther to travelbyair
and would therefore expand the
geographicreachoftheproposed
airport. To capture both the
internationalanddomesticneeds
ofairtravelers,eachtypeoftravel
option is evaluated
independently.
Four Southern California
airports provide access for
domestictravel:LAX,JohnWayne
Figure1.2:AirportReachinSouthernCalifornia.
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 10
(SNA),Ontario(ONT),andSAN.While
there are additional limited‐offering
airports in the region, only the four
major regional airports will be
evaluated for the purpose of this
research. Using Business Analyst
mappingtools,a45‐minutedrivetime
analysis was applied to these four
airports. Additionally, the proposed
airport location is plottedwith a 45‐
mile radius ring. As displayed in
Figure 1.2, the areas within the
boundary and not highlighted, mostly composed of Riverside County, can be considered
underservedfordomesticairtravel.
Asimilarmethodwasusedtoexamineinternationalairportservicesintheregion.
While ONT and SAN are technically international airports, the number of international
flightsoffered isextremely limited.Therefore,LAX is theonlymajor internationalairport
considered for this analysis. As displayed below in Figure 1., a 45‐minute drive time
boundarywasplottedaroundLAXwitha45‐mileringaroundtheproposedairportsitein
North San Diego County. The result shows that all of San Diego County and Riverside
County,aswellasthesouthernhalfofOrangeCounty,areunderservedforinternationalair
travel.
Inconclusion,theanalysisofcurrentdrivetimeaveragesforairtravelpassengersto
LAX and California population
patternswithin convenientproximity
to an airport, the reasonable
geographic reach of the proposed
international airport canbe expected
to be within a 45‐minute drive time.
However, considering the
underserved areas for international
travel, we expand this scope to the
U.S. average proximity to an airport,
Figure1.3: LAXserviceareaandunderservedarea.
Figure1.4:Drivetimereachoftheproposedairport.
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 11
andthereforeconcludethereachoftheproposedairportwilllikelybelimitedbetweena45
to60‐minutedrivetime,asdisplayedbythegreenshadinginFigure1.below.
DescribingtheTri‐CountyRegion
SanDiegoCounty
Asdescribed in theEAS2013,SanDiegoCounty iscomposedofamixtureofboth
urbanandrurallandscapewithanotablemilitarypresence.SanDiegoCountyisthesecond
most populated county in California and the fifth largest county in the United States,
encompassing4,300squaremiles,comparabletothesizeofConnecticut(“SanDiegoCounty
Geography,” 2014). According to the SanDiegoHistory Center (2013), SanDiego County
reacheditspopulationboomattheendofthenineteenthcenturyaftertheTranscontinental
RailroadreachedSanDiego,providingameansoftransportationforinhabitantstoestablish
residential and industrial roots. The county has experienced population growth and is
expectedtosteadilycontinue,accordingtotheCaliforniaDepartmentofFinancepopulation
projections(2014).
Asreportedinthe2010CensusReport,SanDiegoCountyhasatotalof3.1million
residents. By 2040, the Department of Finance projects that the population in SanDiego
Countywillgrowby16.7%toreach3.7millionresidents.Currently,SAN,asingle‐runway
airportlimitedbygeographicalandlogisticalchallenges,servesSanDiegoCountyairtravel.
In 2013 SAN completed a terminal expansion, adding 10 new gates to existing
infrastructure.WhilethisterminalexpansionhasaddedtemporarycapacitytoSAN, ithas
not addressed the geographical or logistical constraints posed by a single runway. As
demonstrated by the San Diego County Regional Airport Authority (2006), current
estimates suggest that by the year 2035 SAN will reach maximum capacity and will no
longerbeabletomeetthegrowingairtrafficdemandoftheregion,placingmajoreconomic
strainsontheregion.
SANDAG(2014)clearlydefinestheregionalboundariesofNorthCountyWestand
NorthCountyEast. Thisstudycombinesthesetwosub‐regionstoidentifyandoutlinethe
North San Diego County boundary. This area includes both coastal and inland regions,
including nine incorporated cities. SANDAG’s boundaries are defined according to major
statisticalareasasoutlinedbytheU.S.Census.SANDAGreliesontheseboundariesbecause
theyareconsideredconstantandwillprovideanaccuratetimeseriesanalysiswhilelooking
atbothhistoricalandprojectedtrendsoftheregion.
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 12
As recommendedby theEAS2013, theproposed international airport site isbest
suitedatMCASCampPendletoninOceanside,California.CurrentlydomestictraveltoNorth
CountyresidentsisprovidedbyOceansideMunicipalAirportandPalomarMcLellanAirport
in addition to SAN. More importantly, locating an international airport at the proposed
NorthCountylocationsitewillprovideforaccesstoaninternationalairportwithin60miles
(andwithinaone‐hourdrive)ofthemajorityofthepopulationofallofSanDiegoCounty.
Furthermore, strategically locating an international airport centrally inNorth San
DiegoCountywillservetheneedsoftheflyingpublicbeyondtheboundariesofSanDiego
County. The Tri‐County region defined in this study encompasses an area within a 60‐
minutedrivetimetotheairport.WhilethemajorityoftheSanDiegopopulationliveswithin
a60‐minutedrivetothesouthandeastof theproposedairportsite, those livingwithina
one‐hour drive to the north and northeast are residents of Orange and the underserved
population of Southwest Riverside counties – two areas with fast growing populations.
Historically the Tri‐County region has had to choose between LAX or SAN to access
international air travel. When examining the drive times around these international
airports,theTri‐Countyregioniscurrentlyunderserved,providingauniqueopportunityto
provideanewservicetotheregion,aspreviouslydemonstratedinFigures1.3and1.4.
OrangeCounty
Orange County is located immediately north of San Diego County on the Pacific
Coast. Los Angeles County borders Orange County to the north and San Bernardino and
Riverside counties to the east. Spanning just 791 squaremiles, the county is the second
mostdenselypopulatedinCaliforniawithabout3millionresidentsin2010(UnitedStates
CensusBureau).
LosAngelesCounty includedwhat isnowOrangeCounty in1850whenCalifornia
was ceded to the United States. Economic growth and local residents’ pride led to the
formationofOrangeCounty in1889(OCHA,2014). During thatperiod,economicgrowth
wasdependentontherichagriculturallandthatsustainedcattleranchingandmanycrops
including oranges. The expansion of the railroad and development of Newport Bay
commercialshippingportledtoanincreaseintradeoutsideofthecountyandaninfluxof
settlers intothecounty.Existingcommunitiesexpandedandnewtownswereestablished.
Thegrowthofthedemandforcitruswasservedbyhundredsofindividualfarmersrather
thanbigcompanies,whichinitiatedtheaccumulationofwealththatisrecognizedinOrange
Countytoday.
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 13
SouthernCaliforniaexperiencedhighlevelsofpopulationgrowthduringWorldWar
II when several newly establishedmilitary bases trained thousands of servicemembers.
The biggest population growth boom occurred in Orange County after the war. Vietnam
refugeeslandedinElToroMarineCorpsAirStationandsettledintheareaalongwithmany
returningservicemembersandtheirfamilies(OCHA,2014). Tourism,manufacturing,and
the service industrybegan todominate the local economy.FollowingKnott’sBerryFarm,
Disneylandopenedin1955makingOrangeCountyaninternationaltouristdestination.The
Anaheim Resort District encompasses Disneyland and the Anaheim Convention Center,
whichopenedin1967andiscurrentlythelargestexhibit facilityontheWestCoast(ACC,
2014).TouristsandbusinesstravelerswithinNorthAmericaoftenarriveanddepartfrom
the Orange County JohnWayne Airport (SNA) situated on 500 acres served by a single
5,700‐footcommercialrunway(OCAIR,2014).
TheSouthOrangeCountyregioncanbedefinedas thegeographicareastretching
south fromthe55Freeway to thecounty'ssouthernborderwithSanDiegoCounty. This
boundary line divides the county along a southwest‐northeast diagonal. Considering the
international travel coverage area described above, only the northern portion of South
OrangeCountyiswithinLAXreach.SNAisincloseproximityfordomestictravel.However,
the southern portion is in the underserved area for international travel. The population
trendsofthecitiestothenorthandsouthofthe55Freewayalsojustifythisboundaryline.
Populationgrowthratesbyjurisdiction,asshownontheCenterforDemographicResearch
mapbelow(Figure1.3),aredrasticallydifferentforcitiestothenorthandsouth.Thecities
of Newport Beach and Irvine, immediately south of this boundary, have had extensive
populationgrowth in thepastdecadewhile thecitiesofCostaMesaandSantaAnato the
immediate north of the 55 freeway have experienced much slower or negative growth
(CDR,2014).
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 14
The opening of the proposed airport would imply that the entire growing
population of southern Orange County would live within a 45‐minute drive time of an
international airport. With LAX serving the slower growing population of the northern
regionofOrangeCountyandtheproposedinternationalTri‐Countyairporttothesouth,the
entirepopulationofOrangeCountywillhaveaccesstointernationaltravelservice.
RiversideCounty
Riverside County is the fourth largest county in California in terms of geographic
area.This county encompasses theeasternportionof theTri‐County regionas itborders
northeast SanDiegoCountyand southeastOrangeCounty.During the1980’s and1990’s,
Riversidewas the fastest‐growing county in Californiawith a 76%growth in population.
Since1992,thepopulationofRiversideCountyhasdoubled.Itspopulationismorethanthe
populationsofthirteenstates,includingMaine,HawaiiandNewHampshire.
Recently,growthhasslowed,bringingthepopulationgrowthratebackinlinewith
thestateofCalifornia’saveragerate.TheairtravelneedsofRiversideCountyresidentsare
currently served mainly by Ontario International Airport, a medium‐hub, full‐service
commercial airport that served4.8millionpassengers in 2010.Although this airport has
Figure1.3:OrangeCountyPopulationChangebyJurisdiction
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 15
sufficientrunwaylengthforinternationalflights,itislimitedbysmallcustomsfacilitiesand
options for connecting flights. A few major corporations that employ a vast amount of
RiversideresidentsincludePacificBell,AT&T,KaiserPermanente,ThePressEnterpriseCo.,
HUB International Insurance Services, Inc., Abbott Laboratories, University of California
Riverside, and the Millipore Corporation. In addition to these companies, numerous
winerieslocatedinthecityofTemeculahavehelpedfueladditionaljobandrevenuegrowth
forthecounty.
ThedrivetimeanalysiswasusedinconjunctionwithU.S.Censusblockstoestablish
theboundarydefiningtheSouthwestRiversideregion.Censusblocks for thisregionwere
selectedbasedon if theywereeither fullywithin the60‐minutedrive timeareaor if the
majorityoftheblockfellwithinthisarea.Thedefinedregionnaturallyfollowscloselywith
theI‐15corridorasdrivetimesareheavilyinfluencedbyfreewayaccess.Furthermore,the
useofthisdemographicsegmentationisconsistentwithSANDAG’sgeographicdefinitionof
SouthwesternRiverside.
Southwest Riverside is located in close proximity to the I‐15 corridor, a major
transportationarteryconnectingRiversidetoSanDiegoCounty.ArecentSANDAG(2014)
transportationsurveysuggests,“95%ofpersonscommutingintotheSanDiegoregionwere
from the southwestern Riverside County area.” One explanation for the transportation
patternsbetweenthetwoareasincludesthecreationof23%morejobsinSanDiegoleading
uptotheyear2000,whilehousingunitsdisproportionatelygrewbylessthan10%.Housing
pricesinRiversideCountyarecomparablylessthanequivalentoptionsinSanDiegoCounty,
making the commute to San Diego County an attractive option for employment
opportunities. Further studies estimate that 29,000 residents of southwest Riverside
commute into the San Diego region and about half have been doing so for the past five
years. Of the interregional commuters travelling into San Diego County, over 40% are
commutingtojobsinnorthSanDiegoCounty.Onaverage,interregionalcommuterstravel
52 miles for employment, spending 60 minutes traveling to work and 72 minutes
commutinghome.
CurrentAverageAirTraveler
Before describing the current and projected demographic makeup for the Tri‐
County region, it is necessary to understand and define the current average air traveler.
Thiswill establish thedemographicmeasures that represent current air travel aswell as
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 16
thedemographicprofileofairtravelers.Thedefinitionofanaverageairtravelerwillcreate
abenchmarkforcomparisontothedemographicsoftheTri‐Countyregion.
Airlinescollectandanalyzemanydatasetspertaining toair travelersanduse the
findings for target marketing, such as advertising space at airports. In addition, some
marketingresearchagenciesspecializeinprofilingairportconsumers.JCDecauxisonesuch
agency that has conductedmarket research on 24 airportswithin theUnited States. The
agencyhasdevelopedademographicprofileofthetypicalairportconsumerateachairport.
ThisstudyreliedontheinformationprovidedbyJCDecauxforacomprehensiveoverviewof
American air travelers within the United States. Of the available airport profiles from
JCDecaux, the team focused on travels through LAX, New York’s John F. Kennedy (JFK),
DallasForthWorth(DAL),andChicagoO’Hare(ORD)ascomparisonairports.Eachofthese
airports provides international travel to and from major metropolitan areas served by
multiple airports. Themain demographic categories comparedwere age, race, education,
householdincome,andfrequencyoftravel.Averagefindingswithinthetargetairportsare
displayedinTable1.1below(JCDecaux).Becausethereisnotan“average”race,thefindings
fromthiscategorywillbediscussedinthesectionbelow.
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 17
Airport AvgAge AvgHHI CollegeGradIndex%TraveledByAir
/12moLAX 44 $94,301 151 46%
JFK 44 $105,778 132 49%
DAL 44 $93,387 127 47%
ORD 44 $106,607 147 48%
Average 44 $100,018 139 48%
Table1.1:Demographicprofileofairtravelers.
Age
Aconsistentfindingamongthefourairportsisthattheaveragetraveleris44years
old.Thesupportingdatademonstratesthattheagesarenormallydistributedwithamean
of44years,indicatingthattheveryyoungandtheveryoldarethesmallestrepresentedair
travelpassengers.
AverageHouseholdIncome
ThemeasurementusedbyJCDecauxtorepresentwealthoftheaverageairtraveler
is average household income (HHI). The average HHI for the four sample airports is
$100,018 with relatively low deviations. Considering the high cost of airfares, it is
reasonable to expect ahigherHHIwouldbepositively associatedwithmore frequent air
travel.
Education
Educational attainment of a college degree is represented by an index, indicating
howtheaverageairtravelerateachairportmeasuresagainsttheaverageAmericancitizen.
Withanaverageindexof139,anairtraveleris39%morelikelytohaveacollegeeducation
thantheaverageAmericancitizen.Thismeasureisalsomostlikelyassociatedwithhigher
HHI, which, again, is reasonable to assume a positive relationship to more frequent air
travel.
FrequencyofTravel
To describe the market penetration and reach of the collected data, JCDecaux
providedapercentageofadultsineachDesignatedMarketArea(DMA)whotraveledbyair
inthepastyear.Thisstatisticprovidesadescriptionofairtravelersratherthanadefinition.
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 18
Withdataofthisdescribedairtraveler,abenchmarkisestablishedforcomparingtheTri‐
County region’s travel patterns. The findings for each of the DMA’s of the four selected
airportsarethatonaverage48%ofadultshavetraveledbyairinthepastyear.
Race
The percentage distribution of air travelers by race from the selected airports
providesthemostvariation,likelyduetoregionaldifferencesinracialandethnicdiversity.
For example, Hispanics represent the second largest air traveling group, as 31% of the
travelersatLAX,yetonly11%ofthetravelersatDAL.Thelargestpercentageoftravelersat
allfoursampleairportsisWhitewithLAXhavingthelowestat47%andbothDALandORD
havingthehighestat64%.
Summary
Using LAX, JFK, ORD and DAL as comparative airports that best represent the
currentdemographicmakeupoftheTri‐Countyregion,itcanbeconcludedthattheaverage
airtravelerismiddleaged,white,collegeeducated,andispartofamoderatelyhighearning
household.
Tri‐CountyRegionDemographics
While it is notable that each subsection of the Tri‐County has unique differences
related to its respective region, viewing the Tri‐County as a whole will demonstrate the
collectivedemandforaninternationalairportcentrallylocatedinNorthSanDiegoCounty
asanessentialresourcefortheregion.
Population
AsdisplayedinFigure1.6below,theprojectedpopulationgrowthoftheTri‐County
areaisexpectedtosteadilyincrease.By2040,SanDiego,OrangeandRiversidecountiesare
projected to increaseby21%,10%,and58%,respectively. In total, theTri‐Countyregion
populationisprojectedtoincreaseby23%reachingatotalof2.7millionresidentsin2040.
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 19
‐
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
ProjectedPopulation
SouthwestRiverside NorthCountySanDiego SouthernOrange Tri‐County
TotalPopulationGrowth
Tri‐County
SouthwestRiversideCounty
NorthCountySanDiego
SouthernOrangeCounty
(2010‐2040) 22.7% 58.0% 20.8% 10.1%Figure1.6:Tri‐countypopulationandgrowthrates.
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 20
As displayed Table 1.2 below, the composition of age in the Tri‐County area
demonstrates thebulkof thepopulation isbetween20and59yearsof age.This trend is
projected to remain constant through2040, as49%of thepopulationwill fall in this30‐
year age span.Thepopulation in this target age range is expected to grow13%by2040
whileitwilllose10%oftheoverallshareoftheagedistribution,indicatingthattherewill
beanagingpopulation.
Itisimportanttonotethatthoseindividualsbetweentheagesof20and59in2040
willhavebeenbornbetween theyears1980‐2020.Currentmarketingdatademonstrates
that the average age of an air traveler is 44 years. If the average age remains similar in
2040,
the average air traveler will be from theMillennial generation (born between 1981 and
1996).While current research indicates that theMillennial generation values technology,
information,andconnectedness,itisunknownhowfutureeventswillshapethisgeneration
whowill become the average air travel passengers. Future ongoingunderstanding of the
Millennial generation is needed to both market to and meet the needs of the changing
clientele.
RacialandEthnicComposition
Another characteristic of the Tri‐County
populationthatisimportanttoanalyzeistheracial
and ethnic makeup of the region. The fastest
growingracialgroup in theTri‐County is theAsian
population, projected to increase 34%, or 77,000,
from 230,000 in 2010 to 307,000 in 2040. This is
important to note as this may drive air travel
demand to and from Asia. In addition, the largest
racial group, those self‐identifying as White, is
projected to remain flat throughout theTri‐County
region while experiencing negative growth in
OrangeCounty.
It is also important to note that there will be substantial growth in the Hispanic
population throughout the region. Thosewho self‐identify as ethnically Hispanic are not
Tri‐CountyAgeDistribution
(byshareoftotalpopulation)AgeRange 2010 2040
0‐9 13% 12%
10‐19 15% 12%
20‐29 15% 13%
30‐39 14% 12%
40‐49 14% 13%
50‐59 13% 12%
60‐69 8% 10%
70‐79 5% 9%
80‐89 3% 6%
90‐99 1% 1%
100+ 0% 0%
Table1.2:AgeDemographics.
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 21
representedintheracialstatisticsbecausetheymaybeofanyrace.TheU.S.CensusBureau
treats race and ethnicity as separate categories. This ethnic group is projected to see a
population increaseof55%by2040ofwhich82%of this growthwilloccur inRiverside
County.Thislargeincreaseisimportantbecausecurrently31%ofairtravelersatLAXself‐
identify as Hispanic (JCDecaux), demonstrating the importance of meeting the needs of
Hispanicairtravelersinthefuture.
Education
As previously illustrated through the air traveler marketing research, the more
educated an individual is, the
morelikelyheorsheis totravel
byair.In2014,ofthepopulation
over 25 years of age, Orange
County residents have the
greatest percentage of higher‐
level educational attainment at
52%andRiversideresidentshavethelowestpercentageat26%.SanDiegoCountyisinthe
middleat32%.Together,40%ofadults25yearsorolderintheTri‐Countyregionholda
college degree, suggesting that
thiseducatedpopulationislikely
totravelbyair.Whileforecastdataforhigher‐leveleducationalattainmentisnotcurrently
available,itcanbeassumedthatthrough2040educationaltrendswilleitherremainsimilar
tocurrenteducationalattainmentrateorcontinue to increaseasmoreresourcesbecome
availabletoprovideaccesstohigher‐leveleducation.
Socioeconomics
Airtravelismorecostlythanequivalentgroundtransportation,thereforewealthis
avaluabledemographicscharacteristictoconsider.Tostudythefinancialabilityneededto
accessairtravel,ananalysisofhouseholdincomeisuseful.In2014theaveragehousehold
income in SanDiego, Riverside andOrange counties are $90,000, $94,000 and $122,000,
respectively.IntheTri‐Countyregion,theaveragehouseholdincomeis$105,000,and40%
ofthosehouseholdsbringinmorethan$100,000.Thelargestcontributionofwealthtothe
Tri‐Countyregion isattributedtoOrangeCountyresidents,where47%ofthehouseholds
earnmore than $100,000 annually. On average, Orange County households earn $16,000
10%
17%
32%
26%
15%
EducationNoHighSchoolDiploma
HighSchoolGraduate/GED
SomeCollegeand/orAssociate
BachelorDegree
Graduate/ProfessionalDegree
Figure1.7:Tri‐countyeducationdemographic.
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 22
more than the averageTri‐Countyhousehold. Current research suggests that the average
U.S.airtravelercomesfromahouseholdearning$100,000.Thisstatisticisinlinewiththe
Tri‐Countyregionwheretheaveragehouseholdearns$105,000annually.Thisimpliesthat
thoselivingwithintheTri‐Countyregionhavethefinancialwherewithaltoaccessairtravel.
Figure1.8:Tri‐countyHHIdemographic.
Similar to average household income, the disposable income measure takes into
accounttheafter‐taxannualincomeavailableforpersonalnecessities,saving,andspending.
Figure1.9.WhiletheaveragedisposableincomefortheTri‐Countyregionis$79,000,North
San Diego, South Orange, and Southwest Riverside County demonstrate averages of
$69,000,$89,000,and$73,000,respectively.Similarly, themediandisposable incomes for
the Tri‐County region is $64,000, while North San Diego, South Orange, and Southwest
Riverside County are $53,000, $75,000 and $62,000, respectively. Looking specifically at
SanDiegoCounty,thereisagreaterlevelofpositiveskew.Themeanis30%lessthanthe
average,demonstratingthattherearesomeveryhighincomesmovingtheaveragenorthof
themedianmeasure. Out of the three regions, Riverside County has the highest share of
annualhousehold incomeasdisposable incomeat77.4%.This ismost likelyattributedto
lowerhousingcostsandstandardsoflivingascomparedtoSanDiegoandOrangecounties.
‐
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
No.ofHouseholds
HouseholdIncome
SouthwestRiverside NorthCountySanDiego SouthernOrange Tri‐County
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 23
Figure1.9:Tri‐Countydisposableincomedemographic.
PropensityforTravel
Individuals’propensitytotravelisofparticularinterestwhenanalyzingregionalair
travelneedsandcurrentairtravelbehaviors.Currentairtraveldataprovidesacomparison
of the specified region against the U.S. average, using an index as a comparison tool for
consistency. The total amount spent on airline fares in the Tri‐County region in 2014 is
estimatedatover$617milliondollars,64.1%higherthantheUnitedStatesaverageforthe
same time period. Each individual county in the region is above the U.S. average with
Southern Orange County residents spending 94% more money than the U.S. average.
Additionally, Orange County residents took twice as many than the national average of
three foreign trips by plane in the last three years, which is 97% higher than the U.S.
average. This high level of frequent foreign travel may be attributed to the large and
growing Asian population in the area as well as the highest disposable incomes in the
region.
Beyond international travel, it is important to note people who live in the Tri‐
Countyregionhaveahighpropensitytotravelbyair.Theyexceednationalaveragesonall
studied measures of air travel activity, including: the percentage of residents who took
more than three round trips in the last twelvemonths; the number of domestic trips by
planeinthelasttwelvemonths;andthenumberofforeigntripsbyplaneinthepastthree
‐
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000No.ofHouseholds
DisposableIncome
SouthwestRiverside NorthCountySanDiego SouthernOrange Tri‐County
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 24
years. Householdmembers living in the Tri‐County region are 53%more likely than the
averageAmericanHouseholdtobemembersoffrequentflyerprograms.Thirty‐fivepercent
ofhouseholdsarehometoatleastoneresidentholdingapassport,higherthanthenational
average.
2014TravelStatisticsIndex(NationalAverage=100) Tri‐County
SouthwestRiverside
NorthCountySanDiego
SouthernOrange
FrequentFlyerProgramMembers 152.9 142.8 127.2 176.4ResidentsWhoOwnaValidPassport 135.3 140.3 122.8 148.9 Took3+RoundTripsbyPlanein/12mo. 155.1 147.5 121.7 183.9TookanyDomestictripbyplane(scheduled)/12mo 138.7 136.0 116.1 157.4 Took1foreigntripbyplanein/3yrs 131.3 125.8 119.1 142.7Took2foreigntripsbyplanein/3yrs 154.2 134.8 136.3 174.9Took3+foreigntripsbyplanein/3yrs 163.9 126.7 137.7 196.9 AmountSpentonAirlineFares $617,137,615 $84,709,725 $191,045,913 $436,008
IndexforAirlineFaresSpending 164.1 124.0 136.5 193.8Table1.3:Tri‐Countytravelerindex.
Conclusions
With this comprehensive study, it is clear that there is strong demand for both
domesticandinternationaltravelintheTri‐Countyregion.Thisisinspiteofthefactthata
substantialproportionofthepopulationisunder‐servedbyexistingairportsasdefinedby
of drive time. The reach of the proposed airportwill likely bewithin a 45‐minute drive
time.Furthermore, thisstrongdemand is likely torunupagainst limitedsupplyasmajor
airports in the region are expected to reach their operational capacity in the foreseeable
future.
Eachofthethreecountieswill individuallyandcollaborativelycontributevaluable
demographicsthatwilldrive futuredemandforan internationalairportservicingtheTri‐
Countyregion.SouthwestRiversideiscurrentlydeterminedtobeunderservedandyetwill
be a significant factor for the region’s population growth. SouthernOrangeCounty is the
mainsourceofwealth fortheregionandwillalsoinfluenceinternationaltraveldueto its
fastestgrowingandlargestAsianpopulation.NorthSanDiegoCountywillcontributeamix
of population growth, wealth, and ethnic diversity to the region in addition to a solid
infrastructurefortransportationandbusinessdevelopment.
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Chapter1:Tri‐CountyRegion 25
Whileitisevidentthatthereisdemandforanadditionalinternationalairportinthe
Tri‐County region, the complexities of implementing the proposed airport must be
explored. The following chapters will investigate and analyze similar regional airports
throughouttheUnitedStatestoprovidecomparableprojectstobenchmarkthecurrenttask
at hand.With the implementation of a newairport, regional employment factors and the
multiplier effect of such a large‐scale project must be evaluated. Additionally, further
research is needed to quantify the current transportationneeds of theTri‐County region
and how the transportation infrastructuremust be configured to support and sustain an
interregionaltransportationhubinthefuture.Lastly,thepoliticalimpactsandinfluencesof
such a task must be considered in the local context. Successful collaboration amongst
interregionalareaswillbepresentedaspotentialrecommendationsforaprosperousjoint
ventureamongsttheTri‐Countyregion.
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Chapter2:AirportBenchmarkingStudy 26
CHAPTER2:AIRPORTBENCHMARKINGSTUDY
Introduction
TheTri‐Countyregionishometoanethnicallydiverse,welleducated,andrelatively
affluentpopulation.Theyarerepresentativeoftoday’sflyingpublic.Infact,theyaremore
likely to travel internationally than the U.S. population, yet they have limited access to
international travel in the immediate region. This chapter begins by investigating the
currentstateandcapacityofitsexistingandplannedairportinfrastructureforthepurposes
of estimating how far it will fall short of future demand. The infrastructure considered
includes the following six airports: Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), Long Beach
(LGB), JohnWayne (SNA), Ontario (ONT), San Diego International (SAN), andMcClellan‐
Palomar (CLD). Studies show that that by 2040, these six will be unable to meet the
demandsoftheflyingpublicevenonceplannedimprovementsarecompleted.Theywillfall
shortofdemandbyanestimated30‐40millionenplanements–aboutthenumbercurrently
servedbySanFranciscoInternationalAirport(SFO).
The second part of Chapter 2 benchmarks the Tri‐County and SanDiego Regions
against othermajormetropolitan areas currently served bymajor international airports.
These include New York City, served by JFK, LaGuardia, and Newark airports; Chicago,
served by O’Hare and Midway, San Francisco, served by SFO and Oakland airports, and
Dallas,servedbyDallas‐FortWorthandLoveField.Eachmetropolitanareahasatleastone
major international airport (New York has two), as well as a large airport handling
primarilydomesticflights.
Withsuchashortrunwayandnoroomtoexpand,SAN(theprimaryairportforSan
Diego) cannot accommodate international traffic. The benchmarking study demonstrates
thatSANcanandshouldremainavitaldomesticgateway,muchlikeMidway,Oakland,and
LaGuardia;SCIAinOceanside,withjusta45‐60minutedriveforthemajorityoftheregion’s
population,willbeabletoaccommodateinternationaltravel.
Increased demand for air traffic into and out of Southern California will provide
growth opportunities within the Tri‐County region. This study analyzes how a new
international airport inNorthSanDiegoCounty can satisfy growingair trafficdemand to
betterservetheregion.Akeyobjectiveistoidentifynewopportunitiesthattheproposed
airport can address in order to maximize air service to the region while minimizing
duplicationofeffortandcannibalizationofotherregionalairports.
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Chapter2:AirportBenchmarkingStudy 27
Inordertoidentifynewandunmetairtrafficneedsandstrategicallypositiontheproposed
airporttoservethoseneeds,itisnecessarytofirstexaminehowregionalairtrafficdemand
iscurrentlybeingservedbyexistingfacilitiesandthenprojecthowitwillbeservedinthe
future.Therearesixairportsconsideredinthisstudy.Theyinclude:
1. SanDiegoInternationalAirport(SAN)
2. McClellan‐PalomarAirport(CLD)
3. LosAngelesInternationalAirport(LAX)
4. JohnWayneAirport,OrangeCounty(SNA)
5. OntarioInternationalAirport(ONT)
6. LongBeachAirport(LGB)
ThisstudyisdesignedtoprovidecivicandbusinessleadersinSouthernCaliforniawith
a detailed analysis of how the proposed new international airport will satisfy projected
increaseddemand forair traffic toand fromtheregion.Themajorgoalof thestudy is to
identifygrowthopportunities forair travel toand fromtheregionbydefiningtheunique
role that a new international airport will play among other airports serving Southern
California.
ResearchQuestions
Thefollowingquestionswillhelpguidebenchmarkdatacollectionandanalysis:
1. WhatarethecurrenttrafficpatternsintoandoutofSouthernCalifornia?
2. Whataircarriersoperateoutofexistingregionalairports?
3. What demand is not currently being met by regional airports and what future
demandneedstobeaddressed?
4. Howwould the proposed airport expand international air traffic to and from the
region?
5. Basedonbenchmarkanalysisoffourothermetropolitanareasservicedbymultiple
airports–SanFrancisco,Chicago,Dallas,andNewYork–whatconclusionscanbe
drawnabouttheimpactanewinternationalairportwouldhaveonairtraveltoand
fromtheregion?
ScopeandLimitations
Whilethisstudyattemptstoobtainbothcurrentandcomprehensivedataregarding
airtrafficpatternstoandfromtheTri‐Countyregion,itmustbenotedthatlimitationsoccur
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Chapter2:AirportBenchmarkingStudy 28
basedontheavailability,relevance,andcontemporaneousnessofdata.Furthermore,when
extrapolating information from the available data and projecting future demand, all
forecastsandestimatesrepresenteducatedassumptionsatbest,whichmayormaynotbe
accurate,sinceairtrafficpatternsandconditionswithinSouthernCaliforniaaresubjectto
changeatanytime.Asaresult,estimatesandprojectionsmadehereinareasaccuratetothe
extentpossiblebasedontheinformationavailableatthetimethisstudywasconducted.
Methodology
Usingsecondarydatasources, this studyexaminescurrentair trafficpatternsand
compares themwith projected air traffic patterns over the next 25 years. The aim is to
identify gaps between current and projected needs, and then highlight those gaps as
opportunitiesforpositioningtheproposedairport.Theanalysisproceedsintwophases.
Thefirstphaseanalyzescurrentandprojectedairtrafficpatternsintoandoutoftheregion.
Thisphasewillprovideapictureoftheneedsthatexistingregionalairportsserve,aswell
as future demand to be served. Such a frameworkwill identify gaps between forecasted
demand and the abilities of existing airports tomeet that growing demand. Filling these
gapsshouldbetheprimaryfocusofanynewairportbuiltwithintheregion.
ThesecondphaseinvolvesabenchmarkstudyoffourothermajorU.S.metropolitan
areasservicedbymultipleairports.Thisphaseexamineshowmultipleairportsservingthe
samemetropolitanareaeithercollaborateorcompete tomeetair trafficneedsrelated to
originanddestination(domesticvs.internationaltraffic).Thisanalysiswillprovideinsight
intowhethertherearegaps(unmetneeds)orexcessiveoverlap(leadingtocompetitionand
cannibalization) inmeeting air traffic demand to and from thesemetropolitan areas.The
informationobtainedfromthisbenchmarkstudywillserveasabasisofcomparisonforthe
Tri‐Countyregionandpaintaclearerpictureofhowthenewproposedairportwillinteract
with other airports in the region. The four benchmarked metropolitan areas and their
correspondingairportsinclude:
1. SanFranciscoBayArea
a. SanFranciscoInternationalAirport(SFO)
b. OaklandInternationalAirport(OAK)
c. SanJoseInternationalAirport(SJC)
2. ChicagoMetropolitanArea
a. ChicagoO’HareInternationalAirport(ORD)
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Chapter2:AirportBenchmarkingStudy 29
b. ChicagoMidwayInternationalAirport(MDW)
3. NewYorkMetropolitanArea
a. NewarkLibertyInternationalAirport(EWR)
b. LaGuardiaAirport(LGA)
c. JohnF.KennedyInternationalAirport(JFK)
4. DallasMetropolitanArea
a. Dallas/FortWorthInternationalAirport(DFW)
b. DallasLoveFieldAirport(DAL)
Thecombinedfindingsofthesetwophasescanthenbeusedtoidentifythebestway
to position the proposed airport in terms of the market segments that it will optimally
serve,aswellastheairtravelservicesthesesegmentsneedmost.
DataCollection
PhaseOne:CurrentandProjectedAirTrafficPatternsIntoandOutofSouthern
California
ThissectionwillexaminehowexistingairportsinSouthernCaliforniaarecurrently
serving air traffic demand to and from the region, and how they will serve projected
demandinthefuture.Sixairportswillbediscussedwhichinclude:
1. SanDiegoInternationalAirport(SAN)
2. McClellan‐PalomarAirport(CLD)
3. LosAngelesInternationalAirport(LAX)
4. JohnWayneAirport,OrangeCounty(SNA)
5. OntarioInternationalAirport(ONT)
6. LongBeachAirport(LGB)
These six airports were selected based on their locations and service to Southern
California.Allsixairportsarewithina90‐mileradiusfromtheproposedairportlocationin
Oceanside.The locationsof theairportsaredepicted inFigure2.1.LAXis locatedfarthest
fromtheproposedairport.TraveltimetoLAXfromtheNorthSanDiegoCountylinevaries
widelybasedontrafficconditions,withanestimateddrivetimeof90minutes.
Thefollowingsectionsexaminetheroleofeachofthesesixairportsinservingthe
air travel needs of Southern California. The discussion includes historical background,
currentoperationsanddemands,andplansforfutureexpansion.
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Chapter2:AirportBenchmarkingStudy 30
Figure2.1:Mapof regionalairportswithina90‐mile radius (or90‐minutedrive) from theproposedairportlocationinOceanside.
SanDiegoInternationalAirport(SAN)
History
San Diego International Airport (SAN), originally known as San Diego Municipal
Airport,wasfoundedin1928atthedawnofearlyaviation.Itsoonbecamethefirstairfield
toserveavarietyofplanetypes,includingseaplanes.In1934,theairportwasdesignatedas
a permanent international airport by the U.S. Treasury Department. Construction of the
airport’s current runway began in 1967. However, given that the surrounding area is so
heavilypopulated–SanDiegoCountyiscurrentlyhometo3,211,252people(UnitedStates
CensusBureau,2014)–anoisecurfewwasestablishedandhasbeenmaintainedsince1976
toappeaselocalresidents.SANbecamethefirstcommercialairportintheUnitedStatesto
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Chapter2:AirportBenchmarkingStudy 31
placesuchrestrictionsonlatenightandearlymorningtakeoffs.Althoughflightarrivalsare
allowed24‐hoursaday,departuresareprohibitedbetweenthehoursof11:30PMand6:30
AM(SanDiego InternationalAirport,2014). It couldbeargued that lifting thisrestriction
mightenableSANtoincreasecapacity;however,enactingsuchachangewouldbedifficult
andmighttriggernumerousresidentialcomplaints.
AirportOperationsandDemand
Atpresent,SANcontinuestooperatewithasinglerunwaythatmeasures9,401feet
in length and200 feet inwidth.This single runway, combinedwithSanDiego’s status as
suchapopulartraveldestination,makeSANthebusiestsingle‐runwaycommercialairport
intheU.S.Currently,theairporthasthreeterminalswith51gatesinTerminals1and2,and
four gates at the Commuter Terminal, for a total of 55 gates (San Diego International
Airport,2014).Figure2.2belowprovidesacurrentlayoutofSAN.
Ü
Figure2.1:SanDiegoInternationalAirport.Source:FederalAviationAdministration(FAA).
In2013,SANserved17,710,241passengers(SanDiegoInternationalAirport,2014)
andfacilitated9,075,134enplanements(RITA,2014).Of thoseenplanements,8,736,412–
or96.3percent–weredomestic, andonly338,722–or3.7percent ‐were international.
Thisequatestoatotalof82,027flightdepartures,ofwhich79,497weredomesticandonly
2,530were international (RITA, 2014). From these data, it is clear that although SAN is
designated as an international airport, it functions primarily as a regional airport that
servesthedomestictravelmarket.
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Chapter2:AirportBenchmarkingStudy 32
Twenty‐twopassengercarriersand fivecargocarriersserved theairport in2013.
Passenger carriers provided service to 59non‐stopdestinations (SanDiego International
Airport, 2014). However, international non‐stop flightswere, and continue to be, largely
limitedtotravelbetweentheU.S.andCanada,theUnitedKingdom,Mexico,andJapan.Asa
result, international travelers flying into or out of the San Diego region cannot obtain a
direct flightandmust first fly intoanothermajor internationalairport toreachtheir final
destinations.Forexample,sinceLosAngelesInternationalAirport(LAX)andSanFrancisco
International Airport (SFO) are the major international airports within California that
providenon‐stopservicetoandfromAsia,atravelerwishingtoflyfromSanDiegotoAsia
(orfromAsiatoSanDiego)mustfirstboardaconnectingflightatoneoftheseinternational
gateways.Likewise,a travelerwishing to fly fromSanDiego toEurope(orEurope toSan
Diego)must firstboardaconnecting flightatamajor internationalairport locatedon the
easternseaboard,suchasNewarkLibertyInternationalAirport(EWR)orJohnF.Kennedy
InternationalAirport(JFK).
ThelargestpassengercarrieroperatingoutofSANin2013wasSouthwestAirlines,
whichcarried38.48percentofpassengers(RITA,2014).Figure2.3providesalistofSAN’s
carriersharesin2013.AlthoughSanDiegoisconsideredafocuscityforSouthwestAirlines,
itisthelargestmetropolitanareaintheU.S.thatisnotanairlinehub.
By2040,SANisprojectedtohaveatotalof15,197,155enplanements,representing
an average annual growth rate of 2.5percent.Additionally, it is projected to rank among
otherairportswiththelargestincreaseinnumberofenplanements(FAA,2014).Bysome
estimates,SANisexpectedtoreachmaximumcapacityasearlyas2030oraslateas2035.
Oncemaximumcapacityisreached,therewillbeanincreaseinbothflightdelaysandflight
Figure2.2:CarriersharesatSANin2013.Source:RITA.
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Chapter2:AirportBenchmarkingStudy 33
prices. SAN is approximately 35 miles from the location of the proposed airport in
Oceanside.
McClellan‐PalomarAirport(CLD)
History
TheMcClellan‐PalomarAirport(CLD)islocatedinCarlsbad,Californiaandwasbuilt
toreplacetheDelMarAirport.CLDopenedin1959andin1961theairport’ssinglerunway
wasexpandedto4,897feet(DepartmentofPublicWorks,2014).
AirportOperationsandDemand
The airport has one terminal in addition to its one runway. Figure2.4provides a
current layoutof theCLD.TheairportoffersmultipledailyconnectionsbetweenCarlsbad
andLosAngelesviadirectflightsonSkyWest,apartnerwithUnitedAirlineExpress.
Figure2.3:McClellan‐PalomarAirportLayout.
Figure2.5providesalistofCLD’scarriersharesin2013,whichindicatesthat100
percent of the airport’s enplanements are domestic. In 2013, the total number of
enplanementswas51,105(RITA,2014).
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BenchmarkingAgainstOtherRegionsServedbyMultipleMajorAirports
Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 34
Figure2.4:CarriersharesatCLDin2013.Source:RITA.
CLDisprojectedtohaveanaveragegrowthrateof5.7percentbetween2013and
2040. This ismore than twice the average growth rate of all other airports studied. For
example,JohnF.KennedyAirportinNewYorkhasthesecondhighestaveragegrowthrate
inthisperiodat2.8percent,farlessthanCLD(RITA,2014).Tomeetthisprojectedgrowth
rate, CLD has a 2013‐2035 Master Plan. Through the Master Plan and the California
Environmental Quality Act (CEQA)/National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) review
process,theCountyofSanDiegoandtheFAAwilldetermineifarunwayextensionwillbe
part of future airport improvements (Department of Public Works, 2014). If a runway
expansionatCLDiseventuallyapprovedandcarriedout,itshouldbeconsideredwhether
the airport could potentially handle some of the overflow from SAN in terms of
internationaltravelersflyingoutoftheTri‐Countyregion.CLDis28milesfromSanDiego
International Airport and approximately seven miles away from the location of the
proposedairport.
LosAngelesInternationalAirport(LAX)
History
In July 1927, real estate agent William W. Mines, representing Martin interests
offered 640 acres of the former Bennett Rancho to use as an airport for the City of Los
Angeles.Thereafter, the sitebecameknownasMinesField. In July1928, theCityCouncil
choseMines Field as the location for the City's airport.When the lease was executed in
October1928, the forerunnerofLosAngeles InternationalAirportwasborn(LosAngeles
WorldAirports,2011).Figure2.6providesacurrentlayoutofLAX.
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BenchmarkingAgainstOtherRegionsServedbyMultipleMajorAirports
Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 35
Figure2.5:LosAngelesInternationalAirportLayout.Source:FAA.
AirportOperationsandDemand
The Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) is the primary airport serving the
Greater Los Angelesmetropolitan area,which is the second‐most populousmetropolitan
areaintheUnitedStates.In2012,itwasdeemedthesixthbusiestairportintheworldand
thethirdbusiestinthecountry(Ecquants,2013).WhileLAXisoneofthebusiestairports
in theworld, ithas regional competition for servingdomesticair travelneeds.The listof
domestic competitors includes Bob Hope Airport (Burbank), John Wayne Airport, Long
BeachAirport,andOntarioInternationalAirport.
LAX is a hub for six major airlines. Three of the airlines are major international
carriers,which includeAmerican,Delta, andUnited.Theother three airlines are regional
carriers, which include Alaska, Horizon and Great Lakes. LAX has direct routes to 87
domestic and 69 international destinations. The international destinations include Latin
America, Europe, theMiddleEast, Asia, andOceania (LosAngelesWorldAirports, 2011).
Figure 2.7 provides LAX’s carrier shares in 2013. LAX is 109 miles from San Diego
InternationalAirportandapproximately79milesaway fromthe locationof theproposed
airport.
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BenchmarkingAgainstOtherRegionsServedbyMultipleMajorAirports
Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 36
Figure2.6:CarriersharesatLAXin2013.Source:RITA.
JohnWayneAirport,OrangeCountry(SNA)
History
JohnWayneAirport(SNA)starteditsoperationsasaflyingschoolin1923andwas
formerly known as Eddie Martin Airport, which was founded by aviation pioneer Eddie
Martin.Theairportoperatedasaprivately‐ownedgeneralaviationfacilityuntil1939(John
WayneAirport,2014).In1979,theairportwasrenamedJohnWayneAirport.
In 2007, SNA recorded its highest number of passengers, estimated at about ten
million.In2011,SNAopenedTerminalCaspartof$543millionexpansioninanticipationof
futurepassengergrowth(OrangeCountyRegister,2013).
AirportOperationsandDemand
SNAservespassengersintheOrangeCountyregionandisthethirdlargestairport
inSouthernCalifornia(OrangeCountyRegister,2013)withenplanementsat4.9millionin
2013(FAA,2014).SNAcurrentlyhasthreeterminalswith26gatesandtworunways.The
mainrunwayis5,701feet,whichisoneoftheshortestatanymajorairport intheUnited
Statesandlimits landingofpassengeraircrafts largerthantheBoeing757.Oftravelersto
theairport,95.7percentaredomesticand4.3percentareinternational.Figure2.8provides
a current layout of the airport. In2013, SNA transported43millionpoundsof combined
freightandmail(RITA,2014).
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BenchmarkingAgainstOtherRegionsServedbyMultipleMajorAirports
Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 37
Figure2.7:JohnWayne‐OrangeCountyairportlayout.Source:FAA.
FourteendomesticcarriersserveSNA.Theairport’sbiggestcarriersareSouthwest
Airlines,UnitedAirlines,andAmericanAirlines.SNA’scarriersharesfor2013areshownin
Figure2.9.Southwest,United,andAmericancarry39.37percent,17.59percent,and12.83
percent, respectively (RITA, 2014). SNA is 76miles fromSanDiego InternationalAirport
andapproximately43milesawayfromthelocationoftheproposedairport.
Figure2.8:CarriersharesatSNAin2013.Source:RITA.
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BenchmarkingAgainstOtherRegionsServedbyMultipleMajorAirports
Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 38
OntarioInternationalAirport(ONT)
History
Ontario InternationalAirportwas initiallyestablishedasLatimarField in1923. In
1942,twoconcreterunwayswereconstructedwithfundsprovidedbytheWorksProgress
Administration (LAWA, 2014). In 1946, the airport was renamed Ontario International
Airport (ONT). In the 1950s, ONT experienced dynamic growth given the fact that three
major aircraft manufacturers, including Lockheed, Douglas, and Northrop, had facilities
there(LAWA,2014).
In1998,the"new"OntarioInternationalAirportopened.The$270millionproject
includedtwonewterminals,anewgroundtransportationcenter,anadditionalparkinglot,
anewroadwaysystem,andairfieldimprovements(LAWA,2014).
AirportOperationsandDemand
Ontario International Airport is amedium‐sized hub and full‐service airportwith
commercial jet service. It primarily serves domestic passengers, with annual domestic
enplanementstotalingtwomillionin2013(FAA,2014).ONTcurrentlyhasthreeterminals
with35gatesandtworunways.Themainrunwayis12,200feet(LAWA,2014).Figure2.10
provides a layoutof theairport.Of theairport’s travelers, 98.6percent aredomestic and
only 1.4 percent are international. ONT serves as a major hub for many freight carriers
includingUPS,FedEx,Ameriflight,WestAirandEmpireAirlines.In2013,ONTtransported
940millionpoundsofcombinedfreightandmail(RITA,2014).
Figure2.9:OntarioInternationalAirportLayout.Source:FAA.
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Currently, 12 carriers serve ONT. Southwest Airlines is the largest carrier, which carries
59.12 percent of passengers (RITA, 2014). Figure 2.11 provides a list of ONT’s carrier
shares in 2013. ONT is 94 miles away from San Diego International Airport and
approximately60milesawayfromthelocationoftheproposedairport.
LongBeach‐DaughertyFieldAirport(LGB)
History
During the1920’s,aircraftwith flightplans toLongBeachwereactually forced to
landon thebeachduring low tide.After considerable lobbyingandpublicity‐drivenstunt
flights,thefamousbarnstormerEarlS.Daughertygainedcitysupportforanairfield(Long
BeachAirport,2014).In1923,theCityCouncildesignated150acresoflandontheoutskirts
oftownattheintersectionofSpringStreetandCherryStreetforuseasamunicipalairport.
Theairportstartedservicein1925.In1928,thecitybuiltanadministrativehangeraspart
of a strategicmove to entice theNavy to lease the airport and establish aNavalReserve
Airbase.Thepartnershipwith theNavy resulted in the constructionof twonewrunways
andtheannexationofanadditional350acres(LongBeachAirport,2014).
AirportOperationsandDemand
Presently,LongBeachAirport(LGB)iscomprisedof1,166acresandfiverunways,
thelongestbeing10,000feet(FederalAviationAdministration,2014).Figure2.12provides
acurrentlayoutoftheairport.
Figure2.10:CarriersharesatONTin2013.Source:RITA.
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Figure2.11:LongBeach‐DaughertyFieldAirportlayout.Source:FAA.
Due to LGB’s close proximity to LAX and strict noise regulations imposed by the
surroundingcommunities,LGBwill remainasmallairport for the foreseeable future.The
airport is under one of the strictest ordinances in the U.S. in terms of airport noise and
number of flights. The FAA only permits 41 commercial flights and 25 commuter flights
daily. In spite of the rigid flight regulations, the airport managed to secure a deal with
economycarrier,JetBlue,toestablishitsWestCoasthubatLGB.JetBluelicenses31ofLGB’s
41 gates and is recognized as an alternative to LAX. Figure 2.13 provides a list of LGB’s
carriersharesin2013.In2010,theairporthad329,808aircraftoperations,whichequates
to903 flightsperday.Of these flights,86percentcomprisedgeneralaviation,10percent
commercial,threepercentairtaxi,andlessthan1percentmilitary.Atthattime,therewere
435 aircraft stationed at the airport, ofwhich 69 percentwere single‐engine, 11 percent
multi‐engine,11percentjet,and10percenthelicopter(BureauofTransportationStatistics,
2014). LGB is93miles fromSanDiego InternationalAirport andapproximately62miles
awayfromthelocationoftheproposedairport.
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Figure2.12:CarriersharesatLGBin2013.Source:RITA.
In this section, six regional airportswithin the Southern California are discussed.
Table2.1summarizestheinformationprovidedontheseairports, includingyearfounded,
numberofenplanements(domesticvs.international),anddistancefromthelocationofthe
proposedairportinOceanside.
Region AirportYearOpened
No.Runways
No.TotalEnplanementsin2013(M)
%Intl.Enplanements2013
ProjectedEnplanements2040(M)
DistanceFromProposedAirport(Miles)
SouthernCaliforniaArea
SAN 1928 1 9.08 3.7% 15.20 35
CLD 1959 1 0.5 0.0% 0.13 7
LAX 1928 4 33.09 26.4% 53.62 79
SNA 1923 2 4.58 4.3% 7.99 43
ONT 1923 2 2.00 1.4% 3.26 60
LGB 1923 5 1.44 0.0% 2.43 62Table2.1:Summaryofkey informationonSouthernCaliforniaairports, includingSAN,CLD,LAX,SNA,ONT,andLGB.
PhaseTwo:BenchmarkStudyofFourOtherMajorU.S.MetropolitanAreasServicedby
MultipleAirports
In this section, a benchmark study will be conducted of four other major U.S.
metropolitanareasservicedbymultipleairports,includingSanFrancisco,NewYork,Dallas,
and Chicago. This phase examines howmultiple airports serving the same metropolitan
areaeithercollaborateorcompetetomeetairtrafficneedsrelatedtooriginanddestination
(domesticvs.internationaltraffic).
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SanFranciscoBayArea
The San Francisco Bay Area is a diverse region comprised of metropolitan,
suburban, and rural areas that are home tomore than 7.4million people (United States
Census Bureau, 2014). Three major airports serve the area: San Francisco International
Airport (SFO), Oakland International Airport (OAK), and San Jose International Airport
(SJC).Theseairportsmeetbothdomesticandinternationaltravelneedsforthesurrounding
areas.SFO is11miles fromOAK,OAK is30miles fromSJC,andSJC is30miles fromSFO
(RITA, 2014). The presence ofmultiplemajor airportswithin the heart of the Bay Area
provides travelerswith a variety of options for their air travel needs.Despite their close
proximity tooneanother, theywork together collaboratively to satisfyair trafficdemand
intoandoutoftheregion.
The projected average growth rates for the Bay Area airports between 2013 and
2040 are comparable, at 2.4 percent, 2.0 percent, and 2.5 percent for SFO,OAK, and SJC,
respectively.Thesepercentagesare slightlybelow theaveragegrowth rates for theother
airportsexaminedinthisstudy;thehighestgrowthratewas5.7percentforCLD,locatedin
theTri‐Countyarea,andthelowestgrowthratewas1.1percentforLGA,locatedintheNew
Yorkmetropolitanarea.
SanFranciscoInternationalAirport(SFO)
History
SFOopenedin1927asMillsFieldMunicipalAirportofSanFranciscoonleasedland
fromtheMillsestate,thenasSanFranciscoAirportin1931.Inthe1950s,itfinallybecame
knownasSanFranciscoInternationalAirport(SanFranciscoInternationalAirport,2014).
AirportOperationsandDemand
SFO is the largest airport in the Bay Area and is located near downtown San
Francisco. The airport serves over 45 million annual passengers (San Francisco
InternationalAirport,2014)andismadeupoffourlongrunwaysandfourterminalsasseen
inFigure2.14below.Therunwaysrangein lengthfrom7,500feet‐11,870feet.Thefour
terminals consist of threedomestic terminals andone international terminal.The airport
furtheractsasahubforUnitedAirlinesandVirginAmerica.Figure2.14providesacurrent
layout of SFO, including its terminals and two sets of parallel runways, which assist the
airportinmeetingincreaseddemandforinternationaltravel.
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Figure2.13:SanFranciscoInternationalAirportLayout.Source:FAA.
SFO offers both domestic and international airport travel and is considered a
gatewaytoAsiaandEurope.Itoffersnon‐stopflightstomorethan34internationalcitieson
29 international carriers and connects non‐stopwith 78 cities in theU.S. on15domestic
airlines(SanFranciscoInternationalAirport,2014).
Asof2013,thenumberofdomesticenplanementswas17,123,296andthenumber
of internationalenplanementswas4,718,958 (RITA,2014).Thus,domesticenplanements
accounted for 78.4 percent of the total number of enplanements, while international
enplanements accounted for 21.6 percent. Of these international enplanements, 45.2
percent involved international travel to Asia and the Middle East with flights to Beijing,
Hong Kong, Taipei, Tokyo, Osaka, Seoul, Shanghai, Chengdu, Manila, and Dubai (San
FranciscoInternationalAirport,2014).
In recent years, SFO has made efforts to target the Asian market by launching a
Chineselanguagewebsite.ThiswebsiteisthefirstwebsiteofitskindofferedintheUnited
States.SanFranciscoMayorEdLeehasstated,“SanFranciscoisaCityofinnovation,andwe
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are proud to be the first airport in the U.S. to offer a website in Chinese. SFO’s Chinese
language website further connects our City with China, strengthens the economic and
cultural ties between our two regions, while providing our diverse communities and
travelerswithaneasierwaytomakeourCityandSFOtheirdestinationofchoice.”
Europe is SFO’s second largest international travel destination, with travel to
Amsterdam,Copenhagen,Dublin,Frankfurt,London,Munich,Paris,andZurich,followedby
traveltoCanada,thenMexico/CentralandSouthAmerica,andlastlyAustralia.SFO’smajor
domestic carriers are United, SkyWest, Southwest, American, and Delta airlines, and its
carriersharesareshowninFigure2.15.SFOisahubforUnitedAirlinesandVirginAmerica
Airlines.
Figure2.14:CarriersharesatSFOin2013.Source:RITA.
OaklandInternationalAirport(OAK)
History
OaklandInternationalAirport(OAK)is locatedneardowntownOakland.Itopened
in1927.OAKiscomprisedoftwoterminalsandfourrunways,asshowninFigure2.16.The
runwaysvaryinlength,from3376feetto10,520feet(AirportIQ5010,2014).
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Figure2.15:OaklandInternationalAirportlayout.Source:FAA.
AirportOperationsandDemand
OAK provides domestic and international travel, offering flights to numerous
domesticdestinationsaswellasinternationaldestinationsinEurope(Norway,Sweden,and
Portugal) and Mexico (Oakland International Airport, 2014). Currently, 98.4 percent of
OAK’senplanementsaredomestic,while1.6percentofenplanementsareinternational.As
of 2013, the number of domestic enplanements was 48,902,777 and the number of
internationalenplanementswas77,843.OAKservesasamajorhubforFedEx;additionally,
the domestic carriers used most frequently by passengers include Southwest, Alaska,
JetBlue,Hawaiian,andSpirit.Theairport’scarriersharesin2013arehighlightedinFigure
2.17.
By 2040, the projected total number of enplanements is expected to reach
7,701,635.This is almost twice thenumberof 2013 enplanements,which is estimated at
4,968,120(RITA,2014).Tomeettheprojectedincreaseofenplanements,OAKhasaMaster
PlanProject concerning long‐term forecastsprojectedout to2025.Without an additional
runway, the expected increase in enplanements and annual tons of cargo will not be
achievable. However, at this time, an additional runway is not recommended in OAK’s
Master Plan. Some items under consideration include an increase in the total number of
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available gates, terminal development, and airfield improvements (Oakland International
Airport,2005).
Figure2.16:CarriersharesatOAKin2013.Source:RITA.
SanJoseInternationalAirport(SJC)
History
TheSanJoseInternationalAirport(SJC),otherwiseknownastheNormanY.Mineta
SanJoseInternationalAirport,openedin1948.TheairportisnamedafteraformerSanJose
mayorwhoservedthreedecadesintheU.S.HouseofRepresentativesandasU.S.Secretary
ofCommerceandU.S.SecretaryofTransportation(MinetaSanJoseInternationalAirport–
SJC, 2014). With his background, Mr. Mineta brought much political support to the
development of SJC. SJC is located in downtown San Jose,which is in the heart of Silicon
Valley. This airport is the smallest of the three Bay Area airports (Mineta San Jose
InternationalAirport–SJC,2014).
AirportOperationsandDemand
SJC is comprised of two 11,000‐foot runways and two terminals that handle
domesticandinternationaltravel.Figure2.18providesalayoutoftheairport.
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Figure2.17:SanJoseInternationalAirportlayout.Source:SJCInternationalAirport.
Non‐stop destinations served by the airport include numerous domestic
destinationsand internationaldestinationssuchasGuadalajara,MexicoandTokyo, Japan.
SJC primarily provides domestic service with 96.4 percent of 2013 enplanements being
domesticand3.6percentofenplanementsbeing international.Asof2013, thenumberof
domesticenplanementswas4,280,424andthenumberofinternationalenplanementswas
161,881 (RITA, 2014). SJC’s major domestic carriers are Southwest, Alaska, American,
SkyWest,andUSAirways,asshowninFigure2.19.
Figure2.18:CarriersharesatSJCin2013.Source:RITA.
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In 2013, SJC facilitated 4,402,305 enplanements. Similar to OAK, the number of
enplanements out of SJC in 2040 is expected to almost double to 7,406,884 total
enplanements(RITA,2014).SJChasa2011–2027MasterPlanthatconsistsofaprogramof
facility improvements designed to adequately accommodate projected aviation demand
(MinetaSanJoseInternationalAirport–SJC,2014).Seventyspecificprojectdevelopments
arediscussed,suchasrunwayextensions,increasesinnumberofcarriergates,andpossible
expansionofairportfacilities.
ChicagoMetropolitanArea
Two major airports serve the Chicago metropolitan area: Chicago O’Hare
InternationalAirport(ORD)andChicagoMidwayInternationalAirport(MDW).ORDis16
milesfromMDW.SimilartotheairportfacilitiesthatcomprisetheairportsystemintheSan
Francisco BayArea, the Chicago airports alsowork together collaboratively to satisfy air
trafficdemandtoandfromtheregion.
ChicagoO’HareInternationalAirport(ORD)
History
Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD) officially opened in 1955. ORD
originallyhadfourrunwaysandserved176,902passengersinitsfirstyear.Sincethen,ORD
hasundergonenumerousexpansionstoaccommodateincreasingairtrafficdemand.Itsfifth
runwaywasaddedin1957anditsfirstinternationalterminalopeneditsdoorsin1958.In
the1960s, all scheduledMidwayAirportoperationswere transferred toORD.Withmore
terminalbuildingsandasixthrunway,ORD’spassengertrafficexceeded30million,making
itoneofbusiestairportsintheworld(ChicagoO’HareAirport,2014).
Inthe1970s,ORDgrewsteadilyandaddedaseventhrunway.Deregulationofthe
domesticairlinesystemsignedintolawbyPresidentJimmyCarterin1978allowedORDto
become the nation’s first dual hub airport. ORD provided competitive airfares andmore
service tomoredestinations thananyotherairport in theworld(ChicagoO’HareAirport,
2014).
In1980s,withcompletionoftheSouthCargoArea,ORDbecamethenation'slargest
mid‐continent freight origin and destination market. In the 2000s, the O’Hare
Modernization Program (OMP) was approved, which intended to increase the airport’s
efficiency,capacity,andsafetybymodernizingparallelrunwaylayout.Atthattime,theFAA
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providedORD$337millioninfundingfortheinitialphaseoftheprogramand$400million
forthefinalphase(ChicagoO’HareAirport,2014).
AirportOperationsandDemand
ChicagoO’HareAirportiscurrentlythefifthbusiestairportintheworldandsecond
busiest in the U.S., with annual enplanements totaling 32.5 million – or 66.9 million
passengers – in 2013 (FAA, 2014). ORD currently has four terminalswith 189 gates and
eightrunways.Figure2.20providesacurrentlayoutofORD.Amongtheeightrunways,the
longest runway length is 13,001 feet, whichwas extended by 3,000 feet under the OMP
(ChicagoO’HareAirport,2014).Approximately83.6percentofenplanementsaredomestic
and 16.4 percent are international. In 2013, ORD transported 751 million pounds of
combinedfreightandmail(RITA,2014).
Forty‐two airlines serve ORD (JCDecaux, 2014). American Airlines and United
AirlinesmaintainhubsatORD,withAmericanAirlinecarrying26.81percentofpassengers
andUnitedAirlinecarrying22.67percent,ashighlightedinFigure2.21(RITA,2014).ORD
isalsousedbyFedExasitscargohub(ChicagoO’HareAirport,2014).
Currently,ORDservesasthemaininternationalairportintheChicagometropolitan
area, with 5.3million international enplanements in 2013 (FAA, 2014). ORD is 16miles
away from its sister airport, ChicagoMidway International Airport, whichmainly serves
domestictravelers.
Figure2.19:ChicagoO'HareInternationalAirportlayout.Source:FAA.
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ChicagoMidwayInternationalAirport(MDW)
History
Chicago Midway International Airport (MDW) officially opened as Chicago
Municipal Airport in 1927 just six month after Charles Lindbergh made his historic
transatlantic flight. In 1928, MDW had 41,660 passengers and 14,498 flights (Chicago
MidwayAirport, 2014). By 1929,MDWwas recognized as theworld busiest airport. In
1949, the airport was renamed Midway International Airport in honor of the Battle of
MidwayduringWorldWarII(ChicagoMidwayAirport,2014).
IncompetitionwithORD,passengertrafficthroughMidwayplummeted60percent
by1961(EncyclopediaofChicago,2014). Afterthederegulationoftheairlineindustryin
1978,MDWhadre‐emergedasahaven for small carriers servingChicagoansandoffered
competitively priced flights (Encyclopedia of Chicago, 2014). In 1991, Midway Airlines,
which operated 72 percent of traffic inMDW, declared bankruptcy and planned to cease
operations later that year. However, in 1992, Southwest Airlines signed a substantial
contract with the City of Chicago, becoming the major carrier at MDW. This contract
prevented the airport from having to cease operations. By 1998, Southwest Airlines
operated102flightsperday(ChicagoMidwayAirport,2014).In2012,Midwayreachedits
highest passenger total in the airport’s 85‐year history, with 19.5 million passengers
(ChicagoMidwayAirport,2014).
Figure2.20:CarriersharesatORDin2013.Source:RITA.
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AirportOperationsandDemand
ChicagoMidwayInternationalAirport(MDW)primarilyservesdomestic travelers,
withannual enplanements totaling10.4million in2013 (FAA,2014).MDWcurrentlyhas
threeterminalswith43gatesand5runways.Amongitsfiverunways,thelongestrunway
lengthis6,521feet(ChicagoMidwayAirport,2014).Over97.5percentofMDW’stravelers
aredomesticandonly2.5percentareinternational.In2013,theairporthandled52million
poundsofcombinedfreightandmail(RITA,2014).Figure2.22providesacurrentlayoutof
MDW.
Twenty‐sixdomesticcarriersservedMDWin2013(RITA,2014). Additionally,theairport
serves as a hub for Southwest Airlines, which carried 90.1 percent of MWD’s total
passengers (RITA, 2014). At the present time,MDW’s flights are largely domestic. Figure
2.23providesalistofMDW’scarriersharesin2013.
Figure2.21:ChicagoMidwayAirportlayout.Source:FAA.
Figure2.22:CarriersharesatMDWin2013.Source:RITA.
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NewYorkMetropolitanArea
Three major airports serve the New York metropolitan area: Newark Liberty
InternationalAirport (EWR),LaGuardiaAirport (LGA), and JohnF.Kennedy International
Airport(JFK).Theseairportscombinetoformthelargestairportsysteminthecountry.The
distance from JFK toLGA is11miles, thedistance fromLGA toEWR is17miles, and the
distancefromEWRtoJFKis21miles.In2013,thisairportsystemservedarecordnumber
ofpassengers,withatotalof112.5million(PortAuthorityofNYandNJ,2014).LiketheSan
Franciscoareaairports,theairportsinthissystemworkcollaborativelytomeethighlevels
of air traffic demand. The estimated population of this metropolitan area in 2013 was
19,949,502people(U.S.CensusBureau,2014).
NewarkLibertyInternationalAirport(EWR)
History
NewarkLibertyInternationalAirport(EWR),originallyNewarkAirport,openedin
1928. It was operated by the City of Newark, which spent over $8.2 million on its
construction and development. Newark was the first major airport in the New York
metropolitanareaandsoonbecamehometothecountry’sfirstcommercialairlineterminal,
whichwasdedicatedin1935.ThePortAuthorityofNewYorkandNewJerseytookcontrol
oftheairportin1948andhassinceinvestedover$4.3billioninimprovements.EWR,which
isconvenientlylocatedjust14milesfromManhattan,servesanimportantrolefortheNew
York‐New Jerseymetropolitanarea inserving itsdomesticand international travelneeds
(PortAuthorityofNYandNJ,2014).
AirportOperationsandDemand
EWRcovers2,027acresandhasthreerunways,withitslongestrunwaymeasuring
11,000 feet longby150 feetwide.Currently,EWR isoneof thebusiest airports inNorth
America and among the busiest international airports in the world, having served
35,016,236passengers in2013.Theairporthas three terminals,withacombined totalof
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over100gates(PortAuthorityofNYandNJ,2014).Figure2.24providesthelayoutofEWR,
includingitsterminalsandtworunways.
In2013,EWRhada totalof17,588,427enplanements,ofwhich11,975,589 (68.1
percent)weredomesticand5,612,838(31.9percent)wereinternational.Thistranslatesto
190,583flightdepartures,ofwhich145,532weredomesticand45,051wereinternational.
By 2040, the airport is projected to oversee 31,514,660 enplanements, with an average
growthrateof2.93percentperyear(RITA,2014).Additionally,EWRisamongthecoreU.S.
airports that are expected to make the largest upward movement in ranking of
enplanements,goinguptworankingsby2040(FAA,2014).
Twenty‐five passenger carriers currently operate out of EWRand serve 160non‐
stop destinations (Port Authority of NY and NJ, 2014). In 2013, United Airlines was the
largestpassengercarrieroperatingoutoftheairport,carrying49.02percentofpassengers
(RITA,2014).Figure2.25highlightsEWR’scarriersharesfor2013.Currently,EWRserves
asahubforUnitedAirlinesandFederalExpress.
Figure2.23:NewarkLibertyInternationalAirportlayout.Source:FAA.
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 54
Figure2.24:CarriersharesatEWRin2013.Source:RITA
LaGuardiaAirport(LGA)
History
LaGuardiaAirport(LGA)islocatedintheboroughofQueensinNewYorkCityand
has been known by several different names throughout its history. It is conveniently
situated just eightmiles frommidtownManhattan. In1939,NewYorkCity tookover the
airportand re‐opened it asNewYorkMunicipalAirport‐LaGuardiaField after substantial
reconstruction.Intotal,NYCspentapproximately$40milliononimprovementsinorderto
betteraccommodatetherapidgrowthincommercialtravel.In1947,LGAwasleasedtothe
PortAuthorityofNYandNJ,andremainsundertheagency’scontroltoday.Todate,thePort
Authorityhasinvestedatotalof$1.4billioninairportimprovementsatLGA(PortAuthority
NYandNJ,2014).
AirportOperationsandDemand
LGA covers 680 acres and has four terminals consisting of 76 gates. Figure 2.26
providesalayoutoftheairport.Additionally,LGAhastworunwaysthatareboth7,000feet
longby150feetwide(PortAuthorityofNYandNJ,2014).Atthistime,theairportisamong
the leading domestic gateways for business travel in the U.S., having served a total of
26,722,183passengersin2013.Itcontinuestobethemainbusinessandshort‐haulairport
forNYC(PortAuthorityofNYandNJ,2014).In2013,LGAhad13,381,725enplanements,of
which 12,545,500 (93.8 percent) were domestic and 836,225 (6.2 percent) were
international. This translates to a total of 179,764 flight departures in 2013, of which
163,883weredomesticandonly15,881wereinternational(RITA,2014).By2040,LGAis
expected to facilitate 17,376,436 enplanements (FAA, 2014), at a growth rate of 1.11
percentperyear.
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 55
Figure2.25:LaGuardiaAirportlayout.Source:FAA.
Currently,22passengerairlinesserveLGA,withDeltacarrying21.53percentofthe
airport’spassengers(RITA,2014).Figure2.27highlightsLGA’scarriersharesin2013.LGA
isahuboperationforDeltaandafocuscityforAmericanAirlines.
Figure2.26:CarriersharesatLGAin2013.Source:RITA.
JohnF.KennedyInternationalAirport(JFK)
History
Construction of John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK), originally known as
New York International Airport, began in 1942. It was built to relieve congestion at
LaGuardia,whichhad already reached itsmaximumcapacity. The airport, also located in
the borough of Queens, took six years to complete and cost the City of New York
approximately$150milliontobuild(PortAuthorityofNYandNJ,2014).JFKfinallyopened
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 56
itsdoorsin1948, locatedjust15milesfrommidtownManhattan.Aroundthatsametime,
thePortAuthority ofNY andNJ took control of the airport andhas operated the airport
since then, investing an additional $11 billion in improvements. In 1963, New York
International airport was rededicated in memory of President John F. Kennedy, known
thereafteras JohnF.Kennedy InternationalAirport.Atpresent, JFKairport is responsible
fordrawingroughly$37millionineconomicactivitytotheNewYorkmetropolitanarea.In
2013, the airport served a record number of annual passengers – approximately 50.4
million–andhasbeenrecognized“fordecadesasthePremierU.S.gatewayforpassengers
andcargo”(PortAuthorityofNYandNJ,2014).
AirportOperationsandDemand
Currently,JFKhasmorethan125gatesspreadoutacrosssixterminalsandhasfour
runways. Figure 2.28 provides a layout of the airport, which covers 4,930 acres (Port
Authority of NY and NJ, 2014). The function of JFK is split almost equally between
international and domestic travel. In 2013, JFK facilitated a total of 25,102,233
enplanements, of which 13,001,641 (51.8 percent) were international and 12, 100,592
(48.2percent)weredomestic.Thisequatestoatotalof190,662flightsdepartures,ofwhich
116,868weredomesticand73,794wereinternational(RITA,2014).By2014,thenumber
of enplanements at JFK is expected to be in the vicinity of 43,795,100 (FAA, 2014),
representinganaverageannualgrowthrateof2.76percent.Itcontinuestobethebusiest
airportfacilityintheNewYorkmetropolitanarea(PortAuthorityofNYandNJ,2014).
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 57
Figure2.27:JohnF.KennedyInternationalAirportlayout.Source:FAA.
JFK serves as a hub for JetBlueAirways and is also amajor international hub for
AmericanAirlines andDelta. In total, over21passenger carriers serve theairport (RITA,
2014).Figure2.29highlightsJFK’scarriersharesin2013.
Figure2.28:CarriersharesatJFKin2013.Source:RITA.
DallasMetropolitanArea
Two major airports serve the Dallas metropolitan area: Dallas/Fort Worth
International Airport (DFW) and Dallas Love Field Airport (DAL). DFW is 11miles from
DAL.Thesetwoairportscollaboratetomeetairtrafficdemandtoandfromtheregion.
Dallas/FortWorthInternationalAirport(DFW)
History
In 1964, the Civil Aeronautics Board determined that Dallas Love Field and Fort
WorthGreaterSouthwest InternationalAirportwere inadequate forservingtheprojected
futureairtrafficneedsoftheregion.TheBoarddirectedthepoliticalleadersofbothDallas
andFortWorthto identifyacommonsitemutuallyacceptabletobothmunicipalities.The
civic leadersofbothcitiesagreedonan18,000‐acreparcel thatwasequidistantbetween
the two cities. In 1968, construction of the $700 million airport began (Texas State
HistoricalAssociation,2013).
In1974,Dallas/FortWorthInternationalAirport(DFW)openedoperationswiththe
firstflightbeinganarrivingAmericanAirlinesflightforNewYork.Atotalofeightairlines
startedserviceattheairportthatyear.Atthetime,DFWhadthreerunwaysand56gates.
BraniffAirwayswas the largest carrierand flew152dailyoperationsoutofDFW.Figure
2.30providesacurrentlayoutoftheairport.Inthe1980s,bothAmericanandDeltaAirlines
establishedhuboperationsattheairport,butDeltalaterrelocated.Throughoutthe1990s,
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 58
AmericanandDeltacontrolled90percentof theair trafficatDFW(TexasStateHistorical
Association,2013).
Figure2.29:Dallas/FortWorthInternationalAirportlayout.Source:FAA.
AirportOperationsandDemand
Positioned at the mid‐point between the cities of Dallas and Fort Worth, DFW
International Airport is the fourth busiest in the world and is the home of American
Airlines, theworld’s largest airline in terms of passengers. Figure 2.31 provides a list of
DFWcarriersharesin2013.Currently,DFWInternationalAirporthas1,800flightseachday
serving60millionpassengersayear.DFWInternationalAirportprovidesnonstopservice
to148domesticand59internationaldestinationsworldwide.
Figure2.30:CarriersharesatDFWin2013.Source:RITA.
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 59
In1979, theFederalGovernmentenacted theWrightAmendment. In essence, the
WrightAmendmentprotectedthedomestictrafficatthenewlycompletedDFW,whichthe
Civil Aeronautics Board mandated. In October 2014, the Wright Amendment was fully
repealed.Today, thecompetition is largelybetweenAmericanandSouthwest, rather than
betweenthetwoairports.Moreimportantly,therepealoftheWrightAmendmentprohibits
international flights at Love Field; as a result, the international market represents the
greatestgrowthpotentialforDFW(AviationOnlineMagazine,2012).
American’s strategy states thatAmericanAirlineswill connectLatinAmericawith
Asia and Europe, while DFW reaping the benefits. In line with this strategy, American
initiated routes to Hong Kong and Shanghai in June. Additionally, DFW has recently
announced that Qatar Airways will launch service between DFW and Doha, with Etihad
Airways starting flights to Abu Dhabi. DFW leadership continues to press for a Chinese
airlinetostartpassengerservicetoDFW(BureauofTransportationStatistics,2014).
DallasLoveFieldAirport(DAL)
History
Dallas Love Field Airport (DAL) is owned and operated by the City of Dallas
DepartmentofAviation.ItisnamedafterLieutenantMossL.Love,whowaskilledduringa
training flight in 1913. The construction of the airport was a private venture and not
mandatedby theCivilAeronauticalBoard.The inaugural flight forLoveFieldoccurred in
1917.At that time,DALwas leased to theUnitedStatesArmyasanaeronautical training
base.AfterWorldWarI,DALwasreturnedtocivilianservice,andin1927theCityofDallas
purchased167acresof the field. In1927,DALbegan regularpassenger service.TheCity
purchasedadditionallandin1927andagainin1941,resultinginatotalperimeterof1,300
acres(SouthwestAirlines,2010).
LoveFieldwasonceagainpushed intomilitary service in1942andservedas the
headquarters for the United States Air Transport Command. Due to the expansions
completedbytheArmyCorpofEngineers,LoveFieldwasthelargestairportintheentire
southwest. With the increase in demand for air travel and transport, in 1968 the Civil
AeronauticalBoard(CAB)directedtheCitiesofDallasandFortWorthtoidentifyamutually
agreeduponlocationforanewinternationalairport.Inanefforttosafeguardthesuccessof
the new airport, the CAB worked to enact the Wright Amendment, which directed all
domesticcarrierstomovetothenewDFWAirport.Southwestrefused,filedalawsuit,and
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 60
prevailed.TheensuingcompromiserestrictedSouthwestAirlinestosixstatessurrounding
thestateofTexas.
AirportOperationsandDemand
DALcurrentlyhasthreerunways.In2009,theCityofDallasspent$519millionto
replacetheterminalbuildingswithasingleterminalanda20‐gateconcourse(FAAMaster
Records for DAL, 2008). In January 2014, the airport served 654,738 passengers. Figure
2.32providesacurrentlayoutoftheairport.
Figure2.31:DallasLoveFieldAirportlayout.
In addition to Southwest, four other carriers currently serve Love Field. Figure 2.33
provides a list of carriers in 2013, which include Delta, SkyWest, SeaPort, and United
Express.
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 61
Figure2.32:CarriersharesatDALin2013.Source:RITA.
DataAnalysisandResults
EnplanementCapacity
InJuly2014,theFAAreleasedareportonairportcapacityprofiles,whichprovidesa
high‐levelassessmentofcurrentandfuturerunwaycapacity.Thereportdefinescapacityas
“the hourly throughput (departures and arrivals) that an airport’s runways are able to
sustainduringperiodsof highdemand, represented as the rangebetween theAirTraffic
Control (ATC) rate and themodel‐estimated rate” (FAA Airport Capacity Profiles, 2014).
According to this study, a comparison of capacity rates for operations at core airports
indicates that SAN has the lowest capacity, with an hourly capacity rate of just 48‐57
operations (including arrivals and departures) as shown in Table 2.2. Figure 2.34 below
showstherangeofcapacityratesatcoreairports.
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 62
Table2.2:Capacityprofilesofothermetropolitanareasservedbymultiplemajorairports.Source:RITA.
Figure2.33:Rangeofcapacityratesforcurrentoperationsatcoreairports.Source:FAA.
SAN’slowcapacityisadirectresultoftheairport’ssinglerunway.AlthoughSANis
expected to remain the busiest single‐runway commercial airport in the U.S., it will be
unable to expand or add additional runways due to lack of available land within the
immediatevicinityoftheairport.AshighlightedbyFigure2.35,SANisamongtheairports
expectedtorequireadditionalcapacityby2025,evenaftercompletedimprovements(FAA,
Region AirportCapacityRate(hourly)
SouthernCaliforniaArea
SAN 48‐57CLD NotAvailableLAX 167‐176SNA 49‐68ONT NotAvailableLGB 48‐105
BayAreaSFO 100‐110OAK 105‐138SJC NotAvailable
ChicagoArea
ORD 214‐225MDW 64‐84
NYAreaJFK 90‐93LGA 80‐86EWR 94‐100
DallasArea
DFW 226‐264DAL NotAvailable
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 63
2007).SNAandLGBwillalsorequireadditionalcapacity.Currently,LAXistheonlyairport
inSouthernCaliforniaexpectedtomeetcapacityafterplannedimprovements.
Figure2.34:Airportsandmetropolitanareasrequiringadditionalcapacityin2025,withorwithoutplannedimprovements.Source:FAA.
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 64
Figure2.35furtherhighlightsthatboththeLosAngelesandSanDiegoregions–and
thusSouthernCaliforniaasawhole–willbeunabletomeetdemandforairtravelby2040.
SuchdatasuggeststhatanadditionalinternationalairportintheTri‐Countyregion–with
multiple,longerrunways–willbenecessarytomeetfuturedemand.
AirTrafficPatterns(Domesticvs.International)
In this section, air traffic patterns of 2013 enplanements (domestic versus
international) are compared among other Southern California airports. The comparison
indicatesthatSANprimarilyservesdomestictravelers,whichcomprise96.3percentoftotal
enplanements. Only 3.7 percent of SAN’s enplanements are international. This number is
similartothenumberofinternationalenplanementsatotherregionalairportssuchasSNA
andONT.LikeSAN,theseairportsalsoprimarilyservedomestictravelers,whichcomprise
95.7percentand98.6percentofdomesticenplanements,respectively(refertoTable2.3).
Basedonstudy findings,LAX is thedominant international airport inSouthernCalifornia
with domestic travelers comprising 76.4 percent of enplanements and international
travelerscomprising24.6percent.
Table
2.3:
Percen
tageof
domes
ticand
intern
ational
enplan
ements
in
2013.
Source
:RITA.
Region AirportNo.TotalEnplanements
2013(M)* Domestic Intl.
SouthernCaliforniaArea
SAN 9.08 96.3% 3.7%
CLD 0.05 100.0% 0.0%
LAX 33.09 73.6% 26.4%
SNA 4.58 95.7% 4.3%
ONT 2.00 98.6% 1.4%
LGB 1.44 100.0% 0.0%
BayAreaSFO 21.84 78.4% 21.6%
OAK 4.97 98.4% 1.6%
SJC 4.44 96.4% 3.6%
ChicagoArea
ORD 32.53 83.6% 16.4%
MDW 10.41 97.5% 2.5%
NYAreaJFK 25.10 48.2% 51.8%
LGA 13.38 93.8% 6.2%
EWR 17.59 68.1% 31.9%
DallasAreaDFW 29.24 89.0% 11.0%
DAL 4.36 99.9% 0.1%Average 13.38 89% 11%
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 65
AsindicatedbythebenchmarkanalysisofothermajorU.S.metropolitanareas,each
of theareasexaminedhasmore thanonemajorairportservingair trafficdemandtoand
fromitsgeographicalreach.Forexample,intheNewYorkmetropolitanarea,bothJFKand
EWR – which are 21 miles apart – serve a much larger percentage of international
passengers(51.8percentand31.9percent,respectively)thandoairportswithinSouthern
California.
Considering the proximity of LAX to SAN – a lengthy 109‐mile journey forweary
travelers – building a proposed international airport roughly halfway in between would
shortenthedistance,aswellastraveltime,toamajorinternationalairport.Furthermore,
theproposedinternationalairport inOceansidewouldprovidegreateraccessibilitytothe
region.Suchimprovedaccessibilitywouldensurethattheareaisevenmoreattractiveand
convenient for potential international travelers to get to, thereby increasing travel to the
region.
Thebenchmarkstudyalsosuggests that there isamissedopportunity for theTri‐
Countyregion.GiventhelimitedinternationalairtraveloptionsprovidedbytheSouthern
California airport system, international travelers to the region are forced to board a
connectingflightatLAXfirst,ratherthantraveldirectlytoSanDiego.Currently,3.7percent
of enplanements at SAN are international. Out of all benchmarkedmetropolitan airports,
theaveragepercentageofinternationalenplanementsis11percent,whichisalmostthree
timesasmanyenplanementscurrentlyfacilitatedatSAN(refertoTable2.2).Fromthis, it
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 66
can be deduced that the proposed international airport in Oceanside could potentially
increasethenumberof internationaltravelerstotheSanDiegoareabyaminimumof7.3
percent (average of 11 percent minus the percentage of international enplanements,
currentlyat3.7percent).
EnplanementsperFlight(Domesticvs.International)
In this section, the total enplanements per flight are compared to determine the
aircraft size capacity for each airport. The number of enplanements per flight was
calculatedbydividingthenumberofenplanementsperflight(numberofpeopleonboardan
outbound aircraft) by the number of flights in 2013, for both domestic and international
flights.Table2.4highlights thesecalculations.Onaverage,domesticdepartures fromSAN
carry110passengersperflight.Thisnumberislargerthantheaveragecountperflightof
94passengers.ComparedwithothermajorinternationalairportssuchasLAX,SFO,andJFK
(104,102,and104respectively),thenumberofpassengersthatflightsoutofSANcancarry
is higher than that of other airports. This suggests that SAN’s domestic flights are
approachingmaximumpassengeroccupancyperaircraft.Figure2.36providesthenumber
ofenplanementsperflightacrossothermajormetropolitanairports.
Figure2.35:Numberofenplanementsperflightacrossmajorinternationalairports.
Incontrast,thenumberofenplanementsperflightforinternationalflightsatSANis
134,whichismuchlowerthanothermajorinternationalairportssuchasLAX,SFOandJFK
(191, 192, and176, respectively). Suchdata suggest that the carrying capacities of SAN’s
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 67
outboundaircraftsare limiteddue to smalleraircraft size.This is adirect resultof SAN’s
relativelyshort,singlerunway,whichcannotaccommodatelargeraircrafts.
ThebenchmarkstudyalsoindicatesthatanewinternationalairportwithintheTri‐
Countyregionwouldincreaseenplanementcapacity,whichSANiscurrentlymissingouton.
A largernumberof passengersper flightwould actually improve efficiencyby increasing
the overall ratio of passengers to total flights. This potentially translates into higher
revenues per flight given that international flight prices are often higher than domestic
flightprices.
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 68
RatioofTotalEnplanements(AgainstMetropolitanAreaPopulation)
Region Airport
No.EnplanementsperFlight(Domestic)
No.EnplanementsperFlight(International)
SouthernCaliforniaArea
SAN 110 134
CLD 20 ‐
LAX 104 191
SNA 111 102
ONT 93 112
LGB 107 ‐
BayArea
SFO 102 192
OAK 104 122
SJC 99 130
ChicagoArea
ORD 72 123
MDW 112 75
NYArea
JFK 104 176
LGA 77 53
EWR 82 125
DallasAreaDFW 88 113
DAL 92 ‐
Average 92 127Table2.4:Comparisonofthenumberofenplanementsperflightbyairport,includingdomesticandinternationalflights.
In this section, the numbers of enplanements at each airport and within each
metropolitan area are measured against the local metropolitan population. The ratio of
enplanements is calculatedbydividing thenumberof total enplanements in2013by the
estimatedmetropolitanpopulation(UnitedStatesCensusBureau,2014).Table2.5displays
theresultingratiosforallairportsandmetropolitanareasexaminedinthisstudy.
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 69
Region Airport
EstimatedPopulation2013(Millions)
RatioofEnplanementsByAirport
TotalRatioofEnplanementsByMetroArea
SouthernCaliforniaArea
SAN 3.21 2.83 2.84CLD Tri‐County:2.21 0.02 LAX
13.13
2.52
3.13SNA 0.35ONT 0.15LGB 0.11
BayAreaSFO
6.443.39
4.86OAK 0.77SJC 0.69
ChicagoArea
ORD9.54
3.414.50
MDW 1.09
NYAreaJFK
19.951.26
2.81LGA 0.67EWR 0.88
DallasArea
DFW6.81
4.294.93
DAL 0.64Average 9.85 1.44 3.85Table2.5:Ratioofthetotalenplanementsagainstthemetropolitanareapopulation.
Astheabovetableindicates,SANhas2.83enplanementsperpersonwithintheSan
Diego metropolitan area. This number is much lower than the ratio of enplanements at
other major international airports, including SFO, ORD, and DFW (3.39, 3.41, and 4.29,
respectively).SuchdataindicatethatSFO,ORD,andDFWtransportmorepassengersfrom
their respective geographic regions than does SAN. However, these findings could be
attributed to a greater number of passengers per flight, since larger airports can
accommodatehigher‐capacityaircrafts.
Incontrast,Table2.5indicatesthattheNewYorkmetropolitanareaistheexception
tothispatternwithacombinedratioofonly2.81enplanementsperperson,comparedtoa
ratioof2.85withintheTri‐Countyregion.However,othermajormetropolitanareassuchas
the Bay Area, Chicago, and Dallas currently enplane more passengers when measured
againstthe localpopulation.ThissuggeststhatSAN’senplanementcapacity is limitedand
that theproposed international airport couldpotentially increase the enplanement ratios
withintheregion.
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 70
Currently, CLD and SAN are the only two airports located within the San Diego
metropolitanarea.SinceCLD’senplanementcapacityisnominal(withanenplanementratio
ofjust0.02),SANis–forallintentsandpurposes–theonlyairportoperatingwithintheSan
Diegometropolitanarea.Figure2.37highlightstheratiosoftotalenplanementswithineach
metropolitanarea.
Figure2.36:Ratiooftotalenplanementsagainstthemetropolitanareapopulation.
AirTrafficProjections
In this section, theprojected enplanements are compared. Projected enplanement
data are based on past enplanement trends and were obtained from the FAA’s Office of
Aviation Policy and Plans (APO) Terminal Forecast website. The selected range for data
collectionwas1990 through2040.Theyear1990was selectedbecause itprovidesa25‐
yearlookback;similarly,2040is25yearsintothefuture.
Figure2.38highlightstheprojectednumberofSANenplanementsto2040,broken
out into domestic and international. (See Appendix for projected 2040 enplanements of
otherairportsincludedinthisstudy).Accordingtotheseprojections,theprojectednumber
of enplanements at SAN in 2040will be roughly 15million,which equates to sixmillion
moreenplanementsthantheairportiscurrentlyfacilitating.Thisrepresentsagrowthrate
of2.5percentyearonyear.
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 71
SAN—SANDIEGOINTLData:Enplanements
Figure2.37:SANenplanementsforecast(DomesticandInternational).Source:FAA.
OtherregionalairportsinSouthernCaliforniaalsoshowasimilargrowthtrend,as
highlightedinFigure2.39.Amongtheairportsexaminedinthisstudy,LAXisprojectedto
have the largest number of enplanements at 53.6 million by 2040. Based on growth
projectionsofallairportswithinSouthernCalifornia(SAN,CLD,LAX,SNA,ONT,andLGB),
the total number of enplanements is expected to be 82,619,223 by 2040, up from
50,245,811in2013.Withsuchasharpincreaseinannualenplanementsacrossallregional
airportswithinSouthernCalifornia,thedataindicatesthatanadditionalairportintheTri‐
Countyregionwillbenecessarytomeettheprojecteddemand.
Air Carrier
Total International Enplanements
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 72
Figure2.38:Enplanementsforecastforbenchmarkedairports,includingdomesticandinternational.Source:FAA.
Table 2.6 shows the average projected growth rate of each airport from 2013 to
2040.SANhasagrowthrateof2.5percent,whichisthesameastheaveragegrowthrateof
allthebenchmarkedairports.However,bycomparingotherdomesticregionalairportssuch
as OAK, MDW, LGA and DAL (2.0 percent, 2.0 percent, 1.1 percent, and 1.8 percent
respectively), it can be determined that SAN has a much higher growth rate than those
airports.AlthoughSANmainly serves thedomesticmarket, thegrowth rate suggests that
SANwillgrowmuchfasterthanotherdomesticairports.
Inaddition,CLDhasthehighestgrowthrateof5.7percent.AlthoughCLDisamuch
smallerairport incomparisontotheotherairportsstudied, ithasthehighestgrowthrate
This suggests that there is increase in air traffic demand in the North County area.
Additionally,alloftheotherregionalairportsservingSouthernCaliforniahavehighgrowth
ratescomparedwithotherregionalairports inothermajormetropolitanareas.SNA,LGB,
SAN,andCLDhaveequalorhighergrowthratesthantheaveragerateof2.5percent.Such
datafurtheremphasizestheneedforanewairportinNorthSanDiegoCounty.
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 73
Region AirportAverageGrowthRate2013–2040
SouthernCaliforniaArea
SAN 2.5%CLD 5.7%LAX 2.3%SNA 2.8%ONT 2.3%LGB 2.5%
BayAreaSFO 2.4%OAK 2.0%SJC 2.5%
ChicagoArea
ORD 2.3%MDW 2.0%
NYAreaJFK 2.8%LGA 1.1%EWR 2.9%
DallasArea
DFW 2.6%DAL 1.8%
Average 2.5%Table2.6:Comparisonofprojectedenplanementgrowthratesbetween2013‐2040.
Conclusions
ThefirstphaseofthisstudyexamineshowexistingairportsinSouthernCalifornia
are currently serving air traffic demand to and from the region and how theywill serve
projecteddemandinthefuture.TheregionalairportsincludedinthisstudyareSAN,CLD,
LAX,LGB,SNA,andONT,allofwhicharewithina90‐mileradius(or90‐minutedrive)from
the location of the proposed international airport inOceanside. The secondphase of this
studyincludesabenchmarkanalysisoffourothermajorU.S.metropolitanareasservedby
multiple airports, including San Francisco, New York, Dallas, and Chicago. This phase
examineshowmultiple airports serving the samemetropolitanareaeither collaborateor
compete tomeetair trafficneeds.Findings fromtheseareaswere thencomparedagainst
theTri‐Countyregion.
WithSANexpectedtoreachcapacitybetween2030and2035,ithasbeenproposed
that an additional international airport be constructed at the designated location in
Oceanside.ThebenchmarkeddatawasusedtoanalyzecurrentEnplanementCapacity,Air
Traffic Patterns (Domestic vs. International), and Enplanements per Flight, and Ratio of
Total Enplanements (Against Metropolitan Area Population) against SAN. Enplanement
projectionsto2040werealsocompared.
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Chapter2:BenchmarkingAgainstRegionalAirports 74
ResultsofthebenchmarkanalysisindicatethatSANiscapacity‐constrained.Thisis
duetothelimitationsofashort,singlerunway.Allotherbenchmarkedairports, including
other regional airportswith lower enplanements per year than SAN, have aminimumof
tworunways.ThecurrenthourlycapacityrateatSAN,includingdeparturesandarrivals,is
thelowestamongallairportsexaminedinthisstudy.SAN’scapacitywillremainlowunless
asecondrunwayisadded.Unfortunately,suchanadditionisnotfeasibleduetolimitedland
availability.Furthermore,otherregionalairports,suchasSNAandLGB,willneedadditional
capacityby2025evenwithplannedexpansions(FAA,2007).
At present, SAN predominantly serves the domestic travel market, unlike other
major airports in the U.S. A primary reason for this is that SAN operateswith a shorter,
singlerunway.Asaresult,SANislimitedinitsabilitytoaccommodatelargeraircraft.Thisis
highlighted by SAN’s lower international enplanements per flight. Such a low number
suggestsSANhasalimitedcapacitytooperatelargeraircrafts.Theproposedinternational
airport–withmultipleand longerrunways–willserveto increasetheregion’sair traffic
capacity.
Furthermore, SAN’s low ratio of total enplanements against the surrounding
metropolitanpopulationindicatesamissedopportunityfortheregion.Assuch,theaddition
ofahigher‐capacityairportwithin theTri‐Countyregionhas thepotential to improvethe
region’saccessibility, therebymaking itevenmoreattractiveandconvenient forpotential
visitors.
Finally, the projected 2040 enplanements indicate that SAN and other airports
withinSouthernCalifornia(namelySNAandCLD)willexperiencethefastestgrowthrates.
Projected growth rates suggest the imminent need for additional air capacitywithin the
region. Based on study findings, the proposed international airport will supplement the
existingairportsysteminSouthernCaliforniaandworkcollaborativelywithotherairports.
SAN will continue to primarily serve the domestic travel market, while the new
internationalairport–with larger facilitiesandmultiplerunways–willhelpalleviate the
heavyburdenplacedonLAXtosatisfytheregion’sinternationaltraveldemand.Evenmore
importantly, the location of the proposed airport in Oceansidewill provide a substantial
growthopportunity in termsof direct air traffic to and from the SanDiego area, thereby
positioningNorthSanDiegoCountyatthecenteroftheTri‐Countyregion.
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 75
CHAPTER3:GROUNDTRANSPORTATION
Introduction
Southern California International Airport will affect automobile traffic in the
surroundingareas,particularlyalongInterstate5, Interstate15,andHighways76and78.
Portionsof these roadwaysarealready congestedandmanyworry that theadditionof a
new airport will only exacerbate the problem. In addition to automobile traffic, the
increaseddemandforpublictransportationservingtheairportneedstobeconsidered.The
accompanying environmental effects of increased public and private transportation also
need to be addressed, as well as additional parking infrastructure to accommodate the
travelingpopulation.Privatevehicleswillrequireparkingatorneartheairport.Travelers
utilizingpublictransportationwillneedparkingsolutionsatpublictransportationhubsso
theycanparktheirvehiclesandreachtheairportbybusorrail.
This chapter examines the anticipated traffic to SCIA and offers sustainable
solutionsformanagingit.Thegoal isto identifycurrentpublicandprivatetransportation
infrastructure and to identify how its various existing elements, and potential new
elements, can be systematically linked to maximize transportation efficiency while
minimizingnegativetrafficandenvironmentaleffects.
This report projects automobile traffic and demand for public transportation and
parkingtoserveSCIAwhenitoperatesatmaximumcapacity.Thiswillbeaccomplishedby
comparingprojectedfuturetrafficwiththeprojectedfuturecapacityforprivateandpublic
transportationintheregion,takingintoaccountcurrentlyscheduledexpansionplans.
The analysis examines existing plans to expand private and public transportation
withintheregion.ItanalysesofallDepartmentofTransportationprojectsslatedtoexpand
highwaysandinterstatestoalleviatetrafficcongestion.Italsoexaminesallcurrentplansto
expand public transportation routes near SCIA. The report discusses the sufficiency of
current public and private infrastructure needed to handle projected traffic and offers
recommendationsforfurtherinfrastructuredevelopment.
ResearchQuestions
Thisreportisdividedintothreesectionswithseparateresearchquestionsrelating
to private transportation including personal vehicles, taxis, and shuttles; public
transportation includingbuses and rails; andparking infrastructure forpersonal vehicles
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 76
parking either directly at SCIA or parking elsewhere with the intent to board public
transportationtravelingtoSCIA.Theresearchquestionsareasfollows:
1. ConsideringtheexistingplanstoexpandInterstate5,Interstate15,StateRoute76,
andStateRoute78,whatadditionalplansshouldbescheduledtomeetdemandin
theTri‐Countyregion?
2. What portion of airport passengers will require or prefer public transportation
options,andwhichpublictransportationoptionswillbeappropriatetohandlethe
increaseindemand?
3. With the expansion of private and public transportation in the area, how many
passengerswillrequireparkingsolutionswhetherarrivingatSCIAthroughprivate
transportation,orparkingatpublictransportationtransitcenters?
ScopeandLimitations
SANDAG, Caltrans, and other various transportation sources provided data
regarding current usage for bothprivate andpublic transportation. However, forecasted
data forpublic transportationwas forecastedto2030rather than2040. Thegrowthrate
through2030wasusedtoprojectexpecteddemandforpublictransportationby2040.
Inregardstoprivatetransportation,thenumberofpassengersexpectedtousethe
COASTER andMetrolink in 2040was not projected, rather the number of round trips in
2040wasforecasted.Thisreportthereforecalculatedexpectedpassengercapacityforthe
COASTER,Metrolink andPacific Surfliner bymultiplying thenumber of forecasted round
tripsbythenumberofseatsavailablepertrip.
NorthCountyTransitDistrict’sSPRINTERisexpectedtooperateeverytenminutes
in2040,whereitiscurrentlyoperatingevery30minutes.Althoughdataisnotprovidedon
the expected number of round trips for SPRINTER in 2040, the increase in operations
impliesthenumberofpassengerscouldtripleafter2030. Unreturnedmessageswereleft
withvariouscontactsatSANDAGtotryandgathermissingtransportationdata.
Lastly,datawasunavailable referencingwhereSAN’soriginatingpassengerswere
travelingfrom.Toconservativelyestimatetheimpactonpublicandprivatetransportation,
thisreportinvestigatedthehighestforecastedimpacttoeachtransportationroute.
Methodology
This report reliedon secondary research to examine transportationneeds for the
Tri‐County regionwhen SCIA operates at a capacity of 30million passengers. TheNorth
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 77
CoastCorridorPublicWorksPlan&TransportationandResourceEnhanceProgramReport
(NCCPWP/TREP) issuedby theCaliforniaCoastalCommission in July2014servedas the
main source for addressing planned freeway and railway expansions as well as the
environmentalconcernsarisingfromtransportationexpansions.
California’sDepartmentofTransportation (Caltrans)andSanDiegoAssociationof
Governments (SANDAG) were used to determine current and forecasted demand for
transportationwithin theTri‐County region. Caltrans andSANDAGuse variables suchas
population, income, and unemployment rates in their model when determining the
projecteddemandfortransportation.
Forprivatetransportation,thisreportuseddatafromseveralpublicagencysources
toconstructamodelof traffic toandfromSCIA.Data fromtheCaltransandSANDAGwas
used todeterminewhether theexistingplans to expandhighwaysand interstateswillbe
sufficienttohandle,orifadditionalconstructionisrequired.
Within the Tri‐County region, current demand and capacity for public
transportation, proposed public transportation expansions, and future demand for public
transportationdatawasgatheredfromNorthCountyTransitDistrict(NCTD),Metrolink,the
California Coastal Commission, and Caltrans. Secondary data from the San Diego
InternationalAirportandLosAngelesInternationalAirportwerealsousedtodeterminethe
portionofpassengerswhowillusepublictransportation.
Todetermineparking infrastructuredemand related to SCIA, this reportused the
2013 EAS Report that calculated the needs for parking based on passengers at SAN.
Additionally,theparkingneedsatLAXwasusedtoconstructprojecteddemandforSCIA.
Lastly,demandforparkingwasestimatedusingthe2013EASReportasabenchmark for
parkingneedsbasedonvolumeandpassengersofSAN.Inaddition,parkingneedsforLAX
wasusedtoestimatedemand.
PrivateTransportation
Introduction
Privatevehicletravelischosenby98%oforiginatingpassengersarrivingatLAXor
SAN(MalcolmPirnie,2008).Whileitisdifficulttoprojectwhethertherewillbesignificant
changesinthetransportationmodesinthefuture,itisreasonabletoexpectthatin25years,
manyCalifornianswillstillchoosetotravelbyautomobile.Therefore,preparingadequate
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 78
road infrastructure through interstates, highways, and arterial roads to accommodate
vehiculartrafficwillbecrucialtotheoperationsofSCIA.
ThemainthoroughfaresforprivatevehiclesaccessingSCIAincludeStateRoute76
(SR‐76), Interstate5 (I‐5),StateRoute78(SR‐78),and Interstate15(I‐15). SR‐76 is the
only main thoroughfare which would provide direct access to SCIA. The other main
thoroughfareswouldonlyconnect toSCIAbyeitherconnecting toSR‐76or toanarterial
roads.FourarterialroadsplayavitalroleinconnectingpassengerstoSCIA.Theirrolewill
be to traverse the interior roads running off ofmajor routes and includeEl CaminoReal
(ECR),MissionAvenue,BenetRoad,andPacificCoastHighway(PCH).Table3.1showseach
routeandhowitwillservicepassengersinaccessingtheproposedairportsite.Inaddition,
Table3.1indicatessecondaryroutesthatmaybesubstitutedbytravelers.
ArterialRoadsName Connection/Purpose Miles Lanes SecondaryRouteElCaminoReal(ECR) ConnectsSR‐78toSR‐76through
MissionAve.RunsparallelofI‐5;northtosouth
3.2 6(South)4(North)
PacificCoastHighway
MissionAvenue‐A ConnectsECRtoSR‐76 1.0 4 MissionAvenue‐B ConnectsI‐5toPCH.Runs
throughdowntowntoallowaccesstoOceansideTransitCenter[orterminalconnectionstation].
0.6 4
BenetRoad* ConnectsSR‐76toProposedAirportTerminalSite
1.1 2 FoussatRoad
PacificCoastHighway(PCH)
ConnectsendofSR‐78toNorthOceanside.RunsparalleltoI‐5andprovidesaccesstoOceansideTransitCenter[orterminalconnectionstation].
2 2(South)2(North)
I‐5
FoussatRoad* ConnectsSR‐76toSCIATerminalSite
1.9 2 BenetRoad
*‐Requiresnewroadsbebuiltonportionofdefinedroute
Table3.1:Alternateroadstoproposedairport.
Each of the main routes, freeways and highways will be discussed in order of
nearest to furthest from SCIA. Correspondingly, arterial roads will be discussed as they
relatetoeachmainroutewithintheirrespectivesubsection.
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 79
StateRoute76
CurrentTrafficConditions
StateRoute76(SR‐76)runseast‐westfor53milesstartinginOceansideattheI‐5,
passing through I‐15PalaandPaumaValley,andendsatSR‐79.Theportion thatdirectly
relates to SCIA lies between the I‐5 and I‐15. Within the Tri‐County region, SR‐76 runs
through the city of Oceanside and the unincorporated community of Bonsall. This area
spansjustover20milesandincludesarecentlyupgradedfour‐laneexpresswayfromI‐5to
SouthMissionRoadandatwo‐lanehighwayfromSouthMissionRoadtoI‐15.Thecurrent
average traffic volume on SR‐76 is approximately 30,000 average daily trips. This is
expected todouble to60,000by theyear2030(CaliforniaDepartmentofTransportation,
2011).Thisispartlyduetotheprojectedpopulationandemploymentgrowthrates.Perthe
2050 Regional Transportation plan, Oceanside’s projected population and employment
growthratesareexpectedtoincrease22%and54%respectively,by2050(SANDAG,2011).
In order to accommodate the projected increases, there have been several
improvementscompletedonSR‐76.Theseimprovementsarebrokenoutbysegment:West,
Middle, andEast.Thewestern segment fallswithin the cityofOceansidebetween the I‐5
andMelroseDrive; in1999 this sectionwaswidened froma two‐lanehighway toa four‐
laneexpressway.ThemiddlesegmentislocatedbetweenMelroseDriveandSouthMission
Road.Thewideningof thissegmentofSR‐76toa four‐laneexpresswaywascompleted in
2012.Additionalimprovementsinthemiddlesegmentincludeinstallingsignalizedandfull
accessintersectionstoimproveroadwayfunctionality,addinganewtwo‐lanebridgeover
theSanLuisReyRiverforeastboundtraffic,reconfiguringtheexistingSanLuisRiverBridge
forwestbound traffic, and replacing both Bonsall Creek and Ostrich Farm Creek Bridges
(TransNet,2013).
PlannedDevelopmentandGrowth
TrafficvolumesalongSR‐76areexpectedtodoubleby2030to60,000daily trips.
Usingthesameprojectedgrowthratefor2030,the2040trafficvolumescouldbeashighas
100,000daily trips.Traffic problems related to the current growthprojections shouldbe
mitigatedbycompletingthelastsegmentoftheSR‐76expansionproject.Thelastsegment,
calledtheEastsegment,isdividedintothreephases.ThefirstphaseupgradedtheSR‐76/I‐
15interchangetoincludeanadditionaleastboundlane.Inaddition,twonewloopon‐ramps
werebuilt foreasieraccess to I‐15 (TransNet,2013).Thesecondand thirdphasesbegan
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 80
constructioninOctober2014towidenSR‐76intoafour‐lanehighwayfromSouthMission
RoadtothenewlyupgradedI‐15interchange(TransNet,2013).ThefinalphasesoftheEast
segmentareexpectedtobecompletedby2017.Whenfinished,thewholeexpansionproject
will provide a consistent four‐lane highway for the Tri‐County region that will alleviate
difficultiesrelatedtocurrentandfutureprojectedtrafficvolumes.
SCIAwillhaveasizeableimpactonSR‐76relativetocurrenttrafficvolumes.Based
on the location of SCIA, SR‐76would be the only east‐west highway thatwould provide
access to the airport. Although the current and planned expansions along SR‐76 are
projected to meet an increase in traffic volume of 60,000 daily trips in 2030, these
expansions might not be able to support the additional demand created from the new
airport.
SCIA is projected to serve 30M passengers. In order to calculate the expected
increaseintrafficvolumesthenewairportwillcreate,anaverageoforiginatingpassengers
betweenSANandLAXwasused(seeTable3.2). In2008,SANhad17.7Mpassengersvisit
theairport.Ofthosepassengers,8.4million(47%)originatedfromSanDiegousingeither
private of public transportation (Malcolm Pirnie, 2008). Of the 67M passengers that
traveledthroughLAXin2011,62%originatedfromtheLAarea(UNISONConsulting,2012).
Using 55% as the average of these figures, SCIA will create an increase of 16.4 million
passengersayear,or45,000dailytripstothearea.Currently,98%oftheairporttrafficis
coming fromprivate transportation versus just 2% frompublic (seeTable3.2). Per the
SANDAG 2050 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP), future expansions on public
transportationareexpectedtoincreaseridershipasawaytodecreasecongestiononmajor
highways. By making public transportation a more attractive alternative, we are
anticipating public transportation to increase from 2% to 10%. Therefore, the projected
traffic volumes for private transportation would increase by 40,000 average daily trips,
whilepublictransportationwouldincreaseby4,500passengers.
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 81
Current SAN/LAX Passengers LAX SAN
Number of passengers (2013) 66,667,619 17,710,241
Originating Passengers 62.0% 47.2%
Average % Originating Passengers 55.0%
Private Transportation 97.0% 98.8%
Public Transportation 3.0% 1.2%
Average % Private Transportation 97.9%
SCIA Projected traffic increase
Anticipated
Transportation % 2040
Number of Passenger at new airport 30,000,000
AVERAGE LAX & SAN Originating Passengers 54.6%
Projected Private Transportation (per day) 90.0% 40,396
Projected Public Transportation (per day) 10.0% 4,488
TOTAL Increase 44,884 Table3.2:Projectedtrafficincrease.
Addingthistotheprojectedtrafficvolumeof100,000basedonpopulationincrease
createsaforecastof140,000dailytripsin2040.However,mostairporttrafficwilltraverse
onlyasectionofSR‐76,predominantlytheportionbetweenI‐5andtheproposedairport.
AlthoughthisisalargeincreaserelativetoSR‐76’scurrentprojectedtrafficvolume,
the current and future expansions of SR‐76 to a four‐lanehighwaywill alleviate possible
congestion fromthenewairport.Otherpossibleexpansions tobeconsidered tomeet the
demand for SCIA include adding a high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lane and implementing
rapidbustransit(BRT).Thesearehighfrequency,limitedstoptransitservicesthatutilize
express laneson thehighway (TransNet,2014). I‐15 recently incorporated thenewBRT
systemwithpositiveresults,andtheI‐5expansionplansonimplementingtheBRTsystem
aswell.
ArterialRoadAccesstoandfromSR‐76
Inaddition to the increase inhighway traffic,arterial roadsrequireconsideration.
ReferencingTable3.1,therearethreearterialroadsoffSR‐76thatwillbeaffected.Twoof
them, Foussat and Benet, will be the main access points into SCIA. These roads are not
consideredoptimalmainaccesspointsintoaninternationalairport,sincetheyrunthrough
residential neighborhoods. One possible solution is to extend Benet and Foussat Road
aroundtheneighborhoodsthereforebypassingresidentialcomplaints.Theseroadsshould
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 82
bewidenedandextendedtomeetthedemandofthenewairportastheywouldbeessential
toprivatetransportationaccess.
Interstate5
CurrentTrafficConditions
Interstate5(I‐5)willallowSCIApassengerstotravelsouthfromOrangeCountyand
north from San Diego County, to SR‐76. The amount of airport traffic will increase as it
approachesSR‐76,andtheI‐5toSR‐76junctionwillhavethemostcongestion.
Forclarity,whendiscussingtheimprovementsrequired,thesegmentofI‐5passing
throughOrangeCountywillbecalled“OCSection,” forOrangeCounty.ThesegmentofI‐5
throughtheCoastalCorridorofNorthernSanDiegoCountywillbereferredtoasthe“NCC
Section.”
The OC section is comprised of 32 miles of I‐5 running from North Harbor
Drive/SouthCampPendletoninOceansideuptotheI‐405/I‐5splitjustsouthofIrvine,CA.
In 2012, there were 267,000 daily trips on this section (California Department of
Transportation–District12[CADOTD12],2012);SeeAppendixC.2.However,18.5milesof
this section run thru Camp Pendleton and have minimal traffic access on and off the
interstate. With so few entry‐and exit points along this segment and no commercial or
residential activity, the immediate traffic impactwithin theOCsectionwillbeminimized.
Still, the OC section services many commuter and private vehicle drivers. The route is
primarilymadeupofthreegeneral‐purposelaneswithportionsoftheOCsectionincluding
fourgeneralpurposes lanes, fourplusonehighoccupancyvehicle (HOV)or carpool lane,
andafewmileswithfourplustwocarpoollanes.
TheNCC section runs 27miles along SanDiego’s coastline fromLa Jolla toNorth
Oceansideandspanssixmiles inland. Its I‐5routeruns fromLa JollaVillageDrive inSan
Diego to Harbor Drive in Oceanside and contains eight general‐purpose lanes (four
northboundandfoursouthbound).Thesouthernportion(northofI‐5/I‐805mergeinSan
Diego to south of Manchester Avenue in Encinitas) also includes HOV lanes in each
direction.WithintheNCC,I‐5servesastheprimarytransportationcorridorwithmorethan
700,000dailytrips(Caltrans&SANDAG,2014).
The areas surrounding each section of I‐5 are expected to experience substantial
populationgrowthby2040with30%(CADOTD12,2012)growthinOCand23%(Caltrans
& SANDAG, 2014) in NCC. Such population growth is expected to changes the daily trip
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valuesfrom267,000to325,000alongtheOCsection,andfrom700,000to910,000,along
theNCCsection.
TotackleexpectedgrowthwithinbothOCandNCCsections,governmentagencies
havemade several plans and proposals over the last four years. These plans range from
addingHOVlanes,increasingpublictransposition,buildingmoreparkandridesaswellas
newpedestrianandbikepaths.
TheOCsection,runbyDistrict12oftheCaliforniaDepartmentofTransportation,is
addressingthisissuebyaddingatleastoneHOVlanealongtheentire20.5‐mileroutenorth
ofCampPendleton,norththroughtheSR‐73‐I‐405split.Thiswillbeaccomplishedthrough
widening the highway and access ramps where HOV lanes do not currently exist. The
projectbegan in2012and isexpected to last through2022. Ithasbeendesigned to curb
congestionandaccommodategrowthneedsthrough2045.
InJuneof2010,NCCPWP/TREPbeganreleasingprojectproposalsandoutlinesto
thepublic.Theresultoftheircommissionisaplantobeimplementedoverthenext30‐to‐
40 years that includes widening I‐5 to accommodate four new Express Lanes, double
trackingof theLosAngeles‐SanDiego‐SanLuisObispo rail corridor (LOSSAN), enhancing
bustransitservice,aswellaspedestrianandbikepaths.
Theplanistocreatean“8+4”system;thisincludeseightgeneral‐purposelanesand
fourExpressLanes.TheNCCPWP/TREP’sreportstates that thishighwayalternativewas
selectedas it represents thesmallest footprintanalyzed thatcouldstillachieve the travel
improvement goals set forth for the project. In addition, this alternative was highly
desirableasitisendorsedastheappropriatehighwayalternativemodelinSB468.1.
BypursuingaprojectthataddsmorelanesonanexistingfreewayNCCPWP/TREP
sets forth some challenges and great opportunities. With four general purposes lanes
alreadyheadingbothnorthboundandsouthbound,themaininfrastructureadditionisthat
oftwoHOVorExpressLanesoneachsideofthefreeway.AsHOVlanesareadded,accessto
1 SenateBill468(SB468)istheresultofacollaborativeeffortinvolvingSANDAG,Caltrans,andtheCaliforniaCoastalCommissiontoensureprojectdesignandmitigationmeasuresareincludedintheNCCPWPtoaddresscoastalpublicaccess,habitatrestorationprojects,environmentalconcerns,andcommunityenhancements.Additionally,SB468requiresthatSANDAGandCaltransbelimitedtonothinglargerthanan8+4alternative,andstatesthatallfeescollectedfromsingleoccupancyvehicles(SOVs)utilizingtheExpresslanesbeusedtowardfundingfuturetransitserviceandoperationsintheNCC(Caltrans,&SANDAG,2014).
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them will need to be considered. NCC PWP/TREP’s plan also addresses that concern
throughtheinstallationoftwoDirectAccessRamps(DARs)andIntermediateAccessPoints
(IAPs) so that HOV lane travelers will have easy access on and off I‐5; DARs are ramps
allowingentranceonandoffdirectlytoandfromHOVlanesinthecenterofthefreewayand
IAPs are lanes that transitionaccess fromgeneralpurpose lanes intoHOVs tohelp avoid
congestionforcarsgettinginandoutofHOVlanes
SimilartoNCCPWP/TREP’splantoadjustforgrowthandcurrentbottlenecks,the
mostchallengingaspectsrelatedtobuildingnewprivate transportation infrastructure for
SCIAwillbefindingnewlandorroomtowidenlanes.Itisprojectedthatanewairportin
Oceansidewill add40,000daily trips to the combined I‐5 sectionswithin theTri‐County
region. Although this number isminimal, compared to current and projected volumes, it
mightpresentsubstantialimpactsonalreadyhighvolumeperiodsoftimesuchasrushhour
andFridays.
TheproposedprojectsbyDistrict12fromtheOCsectionandNCCPWP/TREPinthe
NCC provide adequate improvements to accommodate not only future population and
business growth, but also the additional growth of the proposed airport. The only
modificationsthatshouldbeconsideredareextendingHOVlanes fromSR73downsouth
throughthe18.5milestraveledthroughCampPendletonaswellastheadditionofaDirect
AccessRampinnorthOceanside;preferablyatI‐5/SR76connectionorMissionAve.Adding
moreHOVlanesintheOCsectionwillfurtherensurethattheadditionaldailytripscreated
bythenewairportwillnotaddcongestion.
ArterialRoadAccesstoandfromI‐5
Arterial roads stemming off of the I‐5 will also play a vital role in connecting
passengers to the proposed airport. Whether it is through public transit or via private
vehicles,poorly‐plannedsurfacestreetswillfrustrateandevendelaytravelersontheirway
to SCIA.Within the NCC, the twomain arterial roads that will assist in the efficiency of
transportationarePacificCoastHighway(PCH)andElCaminoReal(ECR).
Evenwiththesemaincitystreetsbeingpopularalternatives,theaddedtrafficfrom
thenewairportwillrequiretheadditionoflanestoallowmoreaccess.Currently,thePCH
sectiondefinedinTable3.1showslittletonogrowthpotentialasthefour‐laneroadislined
withstore‐frontbusinessesadjacenttopedestriansidewalks.
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ECRislocatedfurthereastinOceansideandhasroomtogrowwithinitsfourlane
section.IncreasingECRuptosixlaneswillhelptoensureadequateflowforcrosstrafficof
travelersoriginatingoffofECRorcuttingacrossfromtheSR‐78toSR‐76.
Mission Avenue, another arterial road, stemming off of the I‐5 and headingwest
boundoffersanopportunitytoconnecttravelerstoamasspublictransitsystem.Aparkand
ridemaybe created forpassengers toboardapublic transitwhich could then take them
directly to a terminal. Alternatively, travelers could take public transit to this location,
eithervia trainorbus,andthentakeaprivatecommercialvehiclesuchasa taxiover the
shortremainingdistancetothenewairportterminal.Whatevertheformoftravel,Mission
Avegeographicallyoffersanexcellentopportunitytomeldmultipleformsoftransportation
efficiently.
Highway78
CurrentTrafficConditions
Highway 78 (SR‐78) runs east/west between I‐5 and I‐15 through four cities,
Oceanside,Vista,SanMarcos,andEscondidowithjustoverhalfamillionpeoplelivingalong
thecorridor.Overthespanof16.5mileswithsixgeneralpurposelanes,thisroutecurrently
has143,000dailytripswithalargeportionoftrafficoccurringduringrushhour(Parsons
Brinckerhoff, 2012). In 2011, 25% of the furthest eastbound section of this route was
namednumber12outofthe50worstcommutesinAmerica(TheDailyBeast,2011).Since
thattime,SANDAGandtheCityofSanMarcoshaveworkedcloselytowidenoff‐rampsand
overpassesaswellasaddaccesslanesneartheNordahlRoadexitandtheI‐15interchange.
Such changes have made the route move more quickly but have not fully remedied the
problem.Theremedyhasnotworkedfortworeasons:itonlyaddressesthelast4.2milesin
theeastboundsideofSR78andpopulationcontinuestogrowwithintheNorthSanDiego
Countycommunitiessurroundingthefreeway.
Based on a SANDAG study in 2012, the population along the SR‐78 Corridor is
expectedtogrow21%by2050(ParsonsBrinckerhoff,2012).Thissuggeststhatdailytrips
bythattimewillbenearly173,000.Tohandlethishighervolumeoftrafficandcurbexisting
bottleneck concerns, both the NCC PWP/TREP and SANDAG have completed studies
offeringmultiplealternativesassolutions.TheNCCincludestheI‐5/SR‐78Interchangeand
has thereforebegunexploringoptions for improving this connection.Although this study
waspublishedin2014,therewasnoonealternativerecommended.Insteaditwouldbeleft
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 86
upto laterplanningbytheNorthCoastalCommissiontodecidethebestsolutionasother
portionsoftheproposedNCCPWP/TREPplanareimplemented.
Addressingmore of the concerns of congestion and over capacity throughout the
entire16.5mileroute,SANDAGpublishedits2050RegionalTransportationPlan(RTP)in
2012 proposing the addition of two new HOV lanes with toll rates for SOVs (single
occupancyvehicles)onSR‐78.Thefinalrecommendationendedwiththeplanbeingputon
hold until further analysis could be made. This was primarily due to excessive costs of
buildingandmanaging the toll lanes.Analysisof the toll lanesshowedthatalthough tolls
would help to recoup some costs and provide funds for long‐term maintenance, loan
interestandoperatingcostswouldstillruntoohigh.
However, the overall plan to add HOV lanes across the entire span of SR‐78will
likelyhavepositiveimplicationsforanewairportaswellasresidentsandcommutersofthe
SR‐78corridor.DoingsowouldchangeSR‐78toa6plus2(3generaluseand1HOVineach
direction).The HOV lanes will help ease the flow of traffic, promote public/group
commuting, andwould be good for the environmental. However, it should be noted that
suchaproposedplan,withkeepingtheHOVlanesdoubledupastolllanesforSOVs,ranges
from$917millionto$1.1billioninbuildcosts.Thesecostsdonotincludeanytypeofdirect
access ramps (DARs) – something that may be a strong consideration for access to El
CaminoReal(ECR)asanarterialroadtotheproposedairportsite.
The addition of a new airport in Oceanside will cause demand to increase
moderately,withdailytripsonthisrouteincreasingupwardsof19%moredailytripsifall
new traffic createdby the demandof the airportwere to traverse SR‐78 (seeTable 3.2).
Suchanincreasewouldamountto213,000dailytripsintheworstcasescenario.However
the minimum increase is likely to be an only 2% increase totaling daily trips to
approximately176,000intheyear2050.Therefore,thebestalternativetoSR‐78’spotential
trafficflowdemandistorecommendSANDAG’splanforcreatingHOVlanesthroughoutSR‐
78.Operatingcostsshouldbesupplementedbyadditionaltaxrevenuesfromtheproposed
airport.Furthermore,theseHOVrouteswillnotonlyenhanceprivatevehicletravelbutalso
allowpublic transit touseof theHOVlanesasexpress lanes.TheaspectsofDARsonthis
route,althoughhelpfulinheavilycongestedareas,maynotbethebestfitforSR‐78.Assuch
they arenot recommended for additions to theSR‐78 in support of anewairport at this
time.ThisisprimarilybecausetheyworkbestwhentwoHOVlanesexistandthenumberof
dailytripsdonotwarrantmorethanoneHOV.Iffurtherexpansion,suchaswideningSR‐78
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 87
to addmore general purpose lanes, occurs thenDARs and a secondHOV lane should be
considered.
Interstate15
CurrentTrafficConditions
Interstate15(I‐15)runsfor50mileswithintheTri‐Countyregion.Thisincludesthe
portionoftheI‐15fromSR‐56uptotheI‐15/I215split.In2012,trafficvolumesalongthis
arearangedfrom197,000to312,000vehiclesdaily(TransNet,2014)withthemostheavily
congested areas fallingbetweenSR‐56up throughSR‐78.Before the recent addition of 4
express lanes, the large volumeof traffic caused averagedelaysofup to45minutes.The
completion of the 20‐mile Express Lane Project included additional express lanes, the
implementation of rapid bus transit (RBT) with direct access ramps (DARs) and
intermediateaccesspoints(IAPs).TheprojectspannedfromtheSR‐78inEscondidodown
to the SR‐163 in SanDiego. The express laneswere completed in 2012 and include four
HOVlanesintheI‐15median.Theseimprovementshaveloweredthetraveltimefrom45
minutesto30minutesbetweenSR‐78andSR‐163.Inaddition,averagespeedshaverisen
from30MPHand40MPH,tomorethan60MPH(SANDAG,2013).
Theprojectwasdivided into three segmentswith thenorthandmiddle segments
includedintheTri‐Countyregion.Thenorthsegment,fromCentreCityParkwaytoSR‐78,
costatotalof$187M.Thefundingfortheseimprovementscamefromseveralsourceswith
60%fromfederal,14%fromstate,and23%fromTransNet(TransNet,2014).Themiddle
segment,fromSR‐56toCentreCityParkway,costatotalof$467M.Fundingforthemiddle
expansion included 21% from federal, 3% local, 68% state, and 7% from TransNet
(TransNet,2014).Completionofthemiddleandnorthernsegmentsoftheproject,including
theimplementationofbusrapidtransportationtotalednearly$1B(SANDAG,2013).About
$1M a year is recouped from solo drivers using the new express lanes through the
FastTrackprogram(SANDAG,2013).
Inadditiontocompletingtheexpresslanes,theexpansionoftheI‐15interchangeto
SR‐78was recently completed in2012.This sectionof the interstate isheavily congested
creating severebottlenecksduringmorning and afternoon commutinghours.Theproject
widened the connector on‐ramp from I‐15 to west‐bound SR‐78. The previous delay
averagedaround14minutes,andwouldhaveincreasedto30minutesby2030ifnoaction
hadbeentaken(TransNet,2014).
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 88
Therecentadditionoftheexpresslanesandrapidbustransitsystemareexpected
toreducethecurrentandprojectedcongestion,but the there isstillaneed forcontinued
expansion.Populationandemploymentgrowthbytheyear2030alongI‐15areexpectedto
reach 31% and 25% respectively (SANDAG, 2013). The area between Escondido and
Riverside is expected to reach growth rates even higher due to the opportunity for
expansion. These growth rates will result in increased travel demand on the I‐15 with
projected2030trafficvolumesreachingamaximumof365,100vehiclesperday(California
DepartmentofTransportation,2009)..Usingthesameprojectedgrowthratefor2030,the
2040trafficvolumescouldbeashighas400,000dailytrips.Thisequatestoa28%increase
intrafficvolumebasedonthehighestcurrentvolume.Duetotherecentcompletionofan
expansion,therearecurrentlynomajorapprovedexpansionprojectsontheI‐15.
AlthoughtheimpactofanewairportinOceansidemainlyaffectsI‐5andSR‐76,I‐15
willcertainlybeaffectedaroundSR‐76andSR‐78interchanges.Usingaworstcasescenario
per Table 3.2, assuming all traffic runs through the I‐15, the new airport will create an
additional40,000additionaldailytravelers. Withprojectedvolumesat400,000,thisadds
anincreaseofjust9%.Basedonthisassumption,noadditionalexpansionswillbeneeded
inordertocompensateforSCIA.Withthatinmind,theI‐15willneedtoexpandbasedon
projected growth. The traffic increases along I‐15 will come from population growth
whether or not an airport is built. This growth is expected to cause lots of congestion.
Additionaltrafficfromthepassengersflyingoutoftheairportwilladdtotheproblem,but
asaproportionoftheoverallgrowthintraffic,itisverysmall.The2050RTPemphasizes
the increased expansion of public transportation projected in the next thirty years.
Therefore,themostefficientwaytomaintaintrafficlevelswouldbetoincreasetheamount
ofDARsandIAPsalongtheI‐15,makingbustransportationmoreconvenient.Forexample,
there are currently five transit centers along the I‐15 located at Miramar College, Sabre
Springs/Peñasquitos, Rancho Bernardo, Del Lago, and Escondido. Creating additional
transitcenterswithdirectaccessroutes inareasthatareheavilycongestedsuchastheI‐
15/SR‐78 interchange would increase the use of public transportation and therefore
obviate the use of private transportation. Further, adding an additional HOV lane should
alsobeconsideredwhenaddingadditionalDARstocompensateforheavierbustraffic.
EnvironmentalImpacts
With the continued approval of TransNet in 2004, a new program called
EnvironmentalMitigationProgram(EMP)wasimplemented.Theprogramsupportshabitat
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 89
conservation plans including that of the SR‐76 expansion (Caltrans, 2014). This program
implemented several techniques to minimize environmental impacts. For example,
directionalfencingandtheconstructionofanimalunder‐crossingswereimplementedinall
sectionsoftheexpansion.Areviewofthedatacollectedtodatesuggeststhecombinationof
directional fencing andwildlife crossingsmay be reducing vehicle‐wildlife collisions and
allowing for wildlife movement across SR‐76 (Caltrans, 2014). Medium‐to‐large species
using the wildlife crossings include the badger, bobcat, coyote, raccoon, striped skunk,
desert cottontail and opossum. In addition, bio‐filtration swales/strips and newdrainage
systemswere constructed tomitigate stormwater run‐off (Transnet, 2011).These filters
use plants in channels to capture and degrade pollutants carried by stormwater runoff.
Thesefiltersalsoreducethevolumeofrunoff(Caltrans,2014).
Inadditiontolandandwildlifepreservation,airqualityisafocusforenvironmental
impacts.ThecurrentandplannedexpansionsonSR‐76,aswithalltransportationactivities,
arerequired toconformto theguidelinespursuant to176(c)of theFederalCleanAirAct
(42USC§7506(c))asoutlinedinthe2050RTP.Further,transportationactivitiesmustnot
createnewairqualityviolations,worsenexistingviolations,ordelaytheattainmentofthe
NationalAmbientAirQualityStandards(NAAQS)(SANDAG,2011).
The Coastal Act governs environmental impacts near and around the proposed
airportsiteasitfallswithintheNorthCoastalCorridor.Airqualityislikelythelargestarea
ofconcernasamajorityofvehiclesomitsome typeofemission.For theNCC,CoastalAct
Section30253(d)codegovernsairquality.However,allstandardswithinthiscodesection
followthebroaderStateofCaliforniaregulationsandthereforeairqualityprincipleswillbe
thesameforallmajorroutesdiscussedwithinthisreport.Inadditiontoairquality,other
environmentalimpactstoconsiderarerunoff/waterqualitycontrolandcoastalsightline
issues,governedbyCoastalActsections30230and30251/30253(b).
The quality ofwater in the rivers, streams, and lagoonswithin the NCC is vitally
importanttomanyecosystemsaswellastorecreationalusers.Runofffromroadscancause
contaminationofthesewatersources.Therefore,allroadinfrastructurewillneedtocomply
withCaliforniaregulationsforstormwateranddrainagealongsidethemainroutes.
RegardingtheCoastalActsection30251and30253(b),newormodifiedstructures
alongtheNCCmustnotcreateanytypeofobstructionofcoastalviewsandmustblendinto
thenatural landscapealong theSanDiegoCoastline.Although theNCCextends inland for
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 90
sixmiles,most structure compliance regulationsdonot apply if a structure is notwithin
sightofthecoastlineorcanequallyviewthecoastlinefromitsownlocation.
Beyondairandwater,wideningexistinginfrastructurealongI‐5ratherthanbuildingnew
roads is expected to minimize immediate impact on natural habitats of wildlife residing
within open spaces. Leaving natural areas untouched as much as possible is a positive
solutionforbothbudgetandtheenvironment.
CapacityManagementforProposedAirport
Overthenextthirtyyears,theTri‐Countyregionisexpectedtoseemajorincreases
inpopulationandemploymentgrowth.These increaseswilldirectlyaffect thenumberof
drivers on the road creating the need to properly plan and develop the current private
transportationinfrastructure.Manyexpansionshavealreadybeencompleted,suchastheI‐
15 express lane project and the widening of SR‐78/I‐15 and SR‐76/I‐15 interchanges.
Further, several expansion projects are approved and already in construction, orwill be
under construction to alleviate future traffic volumes. Themajor expansion in the future
willbethe2010NCCPWP/TREPproposalthatincludeswideningI‐5toaccommodatetwo
express lanes on each side. In addition, current construction is underway along SR‐76 to
complete a four‐lanehighway on each side from I‐5 to I‐15. Based on the 2050RTP, the
currentandplannedexpansionsareprojectedtoadequatelyservetheincreasingdemand.
PossibleimprovementsincludeincorporatingadditionalHOVlanesandincreasingDARsto
providemoreconvenientpublictransportation.
Althoughtheseplannedexpansionsdonottakeintoconsiderationtheconstruction
ofanewairport,itisexpectedthattheseimprovementswillbeabletohandletheincrease
in traffic volume with minimal impact. This is because the greatest impact of the new
airportwillbealongI‐5andSR‐76.Therearecurrentplansformajorexpansionsonbothof
them.Theestimatedimpactofthenewairportisexpectedtoberoughly40,000additional
dailytrips.Thisequatestoa4–11%increaseontheI‐5(seeTable3.3).Whiletheincrease
is amore substantial percentage for SR‐76 at 29%, current construction is underway to
minimize impact. In both cases, the addition of an HOV lane and BRT system should be
adequate additions to compensate for the new airport. Finally, with the push for more
public transportationoptions, it isexpected thatpublic transportationwillhaveagreater
impact on alleviating traffic congestion. Although current public transportation is vastly
underutilized with just 2% of current LAX and SAN transportation modes, it can be
estimatedthatwithimprovements,thatwillincreaseto10%basedonplannedexpansions.
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 91
Table3.3:Estimatedincreaseindailytripsperroad.
PublicTransportation
Figure3.1:Maprepresentingpassengerrailservicesandstations.
Introduction
Public transportation for the Tri‐County region includes North County Transit
District(NCTD),OrangeCountyTransportationAuthority(OCTA),andAmtrak.
NCTD provides public transportation for the North San Diego County region and
operatesvarioustypesoftransportationservicesincludingBREEZE,SPRINTER,COASTER,
LIFT, and FLEX. For the purpose of this study, we will concentrate on the first three.
Route MaxCurrent Planned%Increase withAirport
%Increase
76 30,000 100,000 233% 140,000 29%5 700,000 910,000 30% 950,000 4%78 143,000 173,000 21% 213,000 19%15 312,000 400,000 28% 440,000 9%
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COASTERisacommutertrainforNorthSanDiegoCountythattravelsnorthandsouthwith
thenorthernmoststopinthecityofOceanside,andthesouthernmoststopSanDiegoSanta
FeStation.TheSPRINTERisaneast‐westcommutertravelingfromthecityofEscondidoto
the city of Oceanside. The BREEZE is a bus service operating throughout the North San
DiegoCountyregion(NorthCountyTransitDistrict[NCTD],2013).
OCTA provides public transportation for Orange County and parts of Riverside
County.ThisstudywillfocusonMetrolink’sOrangeCountyline(OCline)andInlandEmpire
‐OrangeCountyline(IE‐OCline);botharecommutertrains.TheOClinetravelssouthand
north connecting the southernmost station, Oceanside, to the northernmost station, Los
AngelesUnionreflectedinTable3.4.Thisstudyfocusesonlyontheroutesstoppingatthe
Oceansidestation.TheIE‐OClinesrunsbothnorthandsouth,aswellaseastandwest.This
linehasatotalof15stopsbetweentheOceansideandSanBernardinostations.
Amtrak provides train service throughout California, with the Pacific Surfliner
servicingareaswithintheTri‐Countyregion.ThePacificSurflinertravelsnorthandsouth
fromtheSanDiegoSantaFeDepotstationtotheSanLuisObispostation.Thisstudyfocuses
onlyonroutesthatstopattheOceansidestation(OrangeCountyTransportationAuthority,
[OCTA],2014).
AspartoftheinitiativeproposedbytheNCCPWP/TREPtoincreasethepercentage
of travelers using transportation modes other than single occupancy vehicles (SOVs),
improvements in a variety of travel modes are being considered including connectivity
betweenthevarioustraveloptions,whichcouldleadtoashiftfromSOVstocarpoolingand
othermeansofmassivetransportation.
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 93
CURRENT PLANNED
2013AnnualCapacity
2013DailyRoundTrips
2040AnnualCapacity
2040DailyRoundTrips
NCTD COASTER 5,621,000 11 10,220,000 20
SPRINTER 10,269,440 31 30,808,320 93
METROLINK OrangeCountyLine
(OceansideStopOnly) 1,927,200 5 2,698,080 7
InlandEmpireOrangeCountyLine 2,023,560 7 4,047,120 14
AMTRAK
AmtrakSurfliner 3,179,880 11 5,203,440 18
Table:3.4:Publictransportationcurrentcapacityandforecastedcapacitywithplannedexpansions.
COASTER
As of 2013 the COASTER served over 1.6million passengers, operating 22 trains
daily,or11roundtrips (NCTD,2013).TheCOASTERstopsat the followingeightstations
from north to south: Oceanside, Carlsbad Village, Carlsbad Poinsettia, Encinitas, Solana
Beach,SorrentoValley,SanDiego‐OldTown,andSanDiego‐SantaFeDepot.TheCOASTER
currentlyoperateswithsevenlocomotiveseachofwhichcancarryuptofivecoachesand
eachcoachhasaseatingcapacityof140passengers(J.Dunning,personalcommunication,
October 22, 2014). Therefore, the maximum current capacity is just over 5.6 million
passengersannually.
TheCOASTERoperatesalongtheSanDiegoCountyportionoftheLOSSANcorridor.
Along this portion of the corridor, Amtrak,Metrolink, andCOASTERoperate onmainly a
singletraintrack.Becauseofthis,theCOASTER’soperationscheduleisdependentuponthe
operationschedulefortheMetrolinkandAmtrak.Thisleadstotwoproblems. Thefirstis
longerCOASTERcommutetime,whichiscurrentlybetween25and45minutes(J.Dunning,
personal communication, October 22, 2014). The second problem is increased emissions
sincetheCOASTERmustidlewhenitiswaitingforanothertraintopass(CaliforniaCoastal
CommissionSanDiegoArea,2014).
Toenhanceservicetimeandreliability,andtoreduceemissions,therearecurrent
planstoadddouble‐trackingatthefollowinglocationsontheLOSSANcorridorwithinthe
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 94
SanDiegoCounty:SanDieguitoDelMar,SanElijoLagoon,MoonlighttoSwamiinEncinitas,
BatiquitosLagooninCarlsbadandEncinitas,CarlsbadVillageandEastBrooktoShell(NCC
PWP/TREP).Thedoubletrackingisexpectedtocost$5.6B(SANDAG,2011).Inadditionto
addingasecondtrackatCarlsbadVillage,thereareplanstostraightenacurvethatisalso
expected todecreaseoperating times. Lastly, thereareplans for theOceanside station to
addathirdtracksinceitisaconnectionpointfromtheMetrolinktotheCoasteraswellas
the Pacific Surfliner, and to extend the boarding platform and pedestrian crossovers
(CaliforniaCoastalCommissionSanDiegoArea,2014).
By the year 2040, the COASTER is expected to operate 20 round trips during
weekdays,anincreasefromthecurrent11roundtrips.Fiveoftheroundtripsareexpected
toconnecttheMetrolink’sOrangeCountylinetoOceansideandtwoareexpectedtoconnect
the Inland Empire Orange County line to Oceanside (California Department of
Transportation,2013).TheplannedcapacitiesarereflectedinTable3.4.
BREEZE
The BREEZE is a bus service that operates 164 vehicles covering 30 routes from
Escondido to Oceanside, as well as coastal areas (North County Transit District [NCTD],
2014). The BREEZE offers connections to other transportation lines such as SPRINTER,
COASTER,MetrolinkandAmtrak.
The BREEZE has an annual ridership of 8.3 million passengers with a weekday
average ridership of 26,200 passengers (NCTD, 2014).While there are some busses that
havecapacityforonly19passengers,themajorityofthemcanseat38riders(ByllShelton,
NCTD,personalcommunication,September16,2014).
OneoftheproposedimprovementsincludestheBusRapidTransit(BRT).Thisisa
route proposed in the SANDAG 2050 Regional Transportation Plan, which combines
stations,enhancedvehicles,IntelligentTransportationSystems(ITS),andapriorityrunning
ways into a premier rubber‐tire transit alternative with fast, frequent, and high‐quality
service.ThefirstplannedrouteisRoute653,whichisscheduledtotakeeffectnolaterthan
2035.Thisroutewillservethehigh‐densityMidCityresidentialarea incentralSanDiego
andthePalomarAirportbusinesspark,specificallyfromLaJollaVillageDrivetojustnorth
ofLomasSantaFeDrive.Thisrouteisscheduledtorunat15‐minuteintervalsduringpeak
hours.Whilethisistheonlyroutecurrentlyproposed,otherbusrouteswillbeabletouse
theExpressLanesalongthewidenedI‐5corridor.Theseoperationswillbecomplemented
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 95
bythedirectaccessrampsandtheenhancedpark‐and‐ridefacilitiesbeingproposedbythe
NCCPWP/TREP.
OtherproposalsthatareintendedtopromoteashiftinhowSanDieganstravelfrom
singleoccupancyvehicles(SOV)tomoreenvironment‐friendlymodalitiesincludeenhanced
busservicealongtheCoastHighway;thiseffortisdesignedtoreducevehiclemilestraveled
(VMT)andairpollutants.Partoftheseenhancementsincludefewerstops,dedicatedtransit
lanes, traffic‐signal priority for buses as well as short dedicated lanes approaching
intersectionsthatwouldallowbusestoadvancetotheintersectionaheadofothervehicles
stoppedattrafficsignals.Busesservicingthisareawouldoperateyear‐roundat10‐minute
frequenciesthroughoutthedaytoprovideahigher‐qualityservicethatwouldcomplement
theexistingnetworkoflocalbusroutesalongthecoastalcorridor.Theseenhancementsare
expectedtobeginoperationsbetween2021and2030(NCCPWP/TREP).
Accordingto theNCCPWP/TREP,ExpressLanesandDirectAccessRamps(DARs)
arebeingplanned tohelpprioritize service forHighOccupancyVehicles (HOV), buses as
wellasothertypesoftransitvehicles.
TheplanenvisionshavingtwoHigh‐OccupancyVehicle(HOV)orExpressLanes in
eachdirectionoftheI‐5.Theselanesaremeanttogiveprioritytocarpools,vanpools,and
buses reducing travel times and encouraging single riders to engage in ridesharing.
However,becauseitisexpectedthatalargenumberoftravelerswillcontinuetouseSOVs
astheirformoftransportation,theNCCPWP/TREPproposesthatExpressLanesbeopened
to SOVs through a fee to ensure that excess capacity of these lanes is not wasted. The
revenues generated from SOV utilization of Express Lanes would be allocated for future
transportationimprovementprojects.
TheDARsproposedby theNCCPWP/TREPare intended toallowhighoccupancy
vehicles(HOVs)directaccess intotheExpressLanesfromovercrossingsortunnels.DARs
are planned to be located near Voigt Drive in San Diego and Manchester Avenue in
Encinitas.
SPRINTER
TheSPRINTERisalightrailservicethatrunsfromEscondidotoOceansidewith15
stations along the route. This line also offers connections to other public transportation
linessuchasBREEZE,COASTER,Metrolink,andAmtrak.
The SPRINTER has an annual average ridership of 2.4 million passengers, and a
weekdayaverageridershipof8,300.TheSPRINTERoperatesa fleetof12 lightraildiesel
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 96
multipleunitpassengertrains,eachwithcapacityfor226passengers(NCTD,2014). Two
trains can operate together providing a seating capacity of 452 (NCTD, 2013). The
SPRINTER operates every 30minutes and has 31 roundtrips. With a maximum seating
capacityof452,thenitsannualcapacityisover10millionpassengers.
AccordingtotheSANDAG2050RegionalTransportationPlanpublishedinOctober
2011, planned improvements to the SPRINTER include double tracking the rail lines to
increasethefrequencyofservice,addinglimited‐stopexpressserviceswiththeSPRINTER
Express,andextendingtheservicetosouthEscondido.
The double tracking project foresees grade separations at El Camino Real, Vista
Village Dr, Melrose Dr, Mission/San Marcos stations and two additional locations. The
doubletrackingrailwithservicefromOceansidetoEscondidoisbeingreferredtoasRoute
399whiletheSPRINTERExpressisbeingreferredtoasRoute588.
TheDoubleTrackingRoute399andtheSPRINTERExpressRoute588areexpected
tobeinoperationby2030offeringserviceevery10minutes.Withroutesoperatingevery
10minutes rather than the current 30minutes, according toNCTD, the SPRINTER could
serveup to30.8millionpassengersonce theplannedexpansion is complete as shown in
Table3.4.
The objective of extending the SPRINTER to south Escondido is to provide
connections along the I‐15 corridor between Escondido and downtown San Diego.
According to the SANDAG 2050 Regional Transportation Plan, the BRT services would
complementtheextendedSPRINTERservice.
MetroLink
OCTA’sMetrolinkprovided rail service toover4.4Mpassengers in2013.Of those
passengers, theOrange County line provided commuter rail service to over an estimated
2.5M passengers and Metrolink’s Inland Empire Orange County line served over an
estimated1.3Mpassengersin2013(OCTA,2013).AppendixC.4referstothecalculationsto
estimatethenumberofpassengersontheOCandIE‐OCline.
TheOrangeCountylinestopsatthefollowinglocationsfromnorthtosouth:Irvine,
LagunaNiguel/Mission Viejo, San Juan Capistrano, San Clemente, San Clemente Pier, and
Oceanside.TheInlandEmpireOrangeCountylineincludesthesestopsbutitcontinueseast
to West Corona, North Main Corona, Riverside La Sierra, Riverside Downtown, and San
Bernardino.BeforethislinereachestheWestCoronastation,itstopsatTustin,Orange,and
AnaheimCanyon(OCTA,2014).
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 97
TheOrangeCountylineoperates19trainsdailyduringtheweek,ofwhich10stop
in Oceanside. The Inland Empire Orange County line operates 14 trains daily during the
weekallofwhichconnectedintoOceanside.Duringtheweekend,fourtrainsareoperating
on the Orange County line and four trains are operating on the Inland Empire Orange
Countyline(CaliforniaDepartmentofTransportation,2013).
According to theMetrolinkFleetPlan2012,Metrolinkuses fourdifferent typesof
rail cars. The typesand the respective seating capacity include theSentinelGen1which
seats149,theSentinelGen2whichseats140,theSentinelGen3whichseats141,andthe
Guardian Fleet which seats 132. For a conservative estimate the seating capacity of the
GuardianwillbeusedtoestimatetheseatingcapacityavailablefortheOrangeCountyline
andInlandEmpireOrangeCountyline.Withanaverageof471passengerspertrainonthe
OrangeCountyline,anaverageoffourcarspertrainwouldbenecessarytoaccommodate
thesepassengers.Withanaverageof320passengerspertrainontheInlandEmpireOrange
County line, an average of 3 cars per train would be necessary to accommodate these
passengers,Table3.5reflectsthesecalculations.
Metrolink
OCLine IE‐OCLine
2013AnnualPassengers 2,525,873 1,300,761
2013Avg.DailyPassengers 6,920 3,564
Avg.No.WeekdayTrains 19 14
Avg.No.WeekendTrains 4 4
No.AnnualTrains 5,360 4,060
Avg.No.DailyTrains 14.7 11.1
Avg.No.PassengersperTrain 471 320
Avg.No.CarsperTrain 3.6 2.4
Avg.No.CarsNeededperTrain 4 3
Table3.5:Calculationstoestimatethenumberofcarspertrain.
ThecalculatedcapacityfortheOrangeCountylinewhichstopsinOceansideisover
1.9million.Thisisbasedon10dailytrips,withanaverageoffourcarsentailing132seats,
operatingfor365days.ThecalculatedcapacityfortheInlandEmpireOrangeCountylineis
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 98
over2millionpassengers.Thebasisforthisestimationis14tripswithanaverageof3cars
entailing132seats,operatingfor365days.
TheplanneddevelopmentswithintheOrangeCountyregionincludeapassingtrack
between Laguna Niguel and San Juan Capistrano, a third main track along an 8.5 mile
stretchinIrvine,andadoubletrackatbetweenSanOnofreandPulgas.Theseprojectsare
estimatedtocost$26.8million,$17million,and$36millionrespectivelyandthesechanges
willallowforincreasedcapacityaswellasenhanceservicetime(CaliforniaDepartmentof
Transportation,2013).
By 2040, Metrolink’s Orange County line anticipates a total of 20 round trips of
which sevenwill stop at theOceanside station. The InlandEmpireOrange County line is
expectedtooperate12roundtrips,allofwhichwillstopattheOceansidestation(California
DepartmentofTransportation,2013).SevenstopsfortheOrangeCounty lineprovidesan
estimated capacity of over 2.6 million passengers and 14 stops for the Inland Empire
OrangeCounty lineprovides anestimated capacityof over4millionpassengers (refer to
Table3.4).
CommuterLink
PeoplefromsoutherncitiesinRiversidewillalsobenefitfromhavinganairportin
the region. Due to the increased population growth in southern Riverside County, the
implicationsoftrafficgeneratedfromthiscommutemustbeaddressed.
TheonlypublictransportationservicethatconnectsRiversideCountytoSanDiego
CountyisCommuterLinkviaroute202operatedbytheRiversideTransitAgency(RTA).
CommuterLinkRoute 202 connects theMurrieta/Temecula area to theOceanside
Transit Center fromwhich passengers canmake subsequent connections to other public
transportationlinesifneeded.Currently,thisrouterunsonweekdaysonlytransportingan
average of 6 passengers per trip. (RiversideTransit Agency, 2014). CommuterLink buses
have a seating capacity of 27 passengers, which indicates that this route is being
underutilized.TheRiversideTransitAuthority(RTA)suggeststhatinmanycases,avan‐size
vehiclecanmeetthedemandforthisroute.
ThisrouteisaconcernfortheRTAasitrepresentsacostlyoutlierwiththehighest
subsidyperpassenger.Route202incursasubsidycostof$18.56perpassengerboarding.
AccordingtotheRiversideTransitAgencyService,whileroute202playsasignificantrole
byprovidingconnectionsbeyondRTAserviceareas,thehighcostsofthisservicewarrants
considerationofmorecost‐effectivealternatives.
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 99
Amtrak
Amtrak’sPacificSurflinercurrentlyoperatesthreetrainsinbothOrangeCountyand
SanDiego County,with one additional train during theweekdays in Orange County. The
PacificSurflinerincludesthesamestopsastheCOASTERandOrangeCountylines,withthe
exceptionofthestationatSanClemente.In2013,Amtrak’sPacificSurflinerhad2.7million
passengers,whichisanaverageofapproximately7,413passengersdaily(Amtrak,2013).
Since the Pacific Surfliner operates along the same tracks as the COASTER and
Metrolink’s Orange County line, the plans for double tracks and other rail improvements
addressedintheCOASTERsectionandMetrolinksectionapplytoAmtrak’sPacificSurfliner.
Again,thegoalfortheseplanneddevelopmentsistoincreasecapacity,decreasetraveltime,
reduce emissions, and upgrade the tracks to keep up with faster trains (California
DepartmentofTransportation,2013).
According to the Pacific Surfliner South Corridor Service Development Plan, the
PacificSurflinerisexpectedtooperate18dailyroundtrips,fourofwhichwillhavelimited
stops. Estimated capacity for the Pacific Surfliner in 2040 is over 5.2million passengers;
plannedcapacityissummarizedinTable3.4.Thisisbasedonanestimatedthreecarsper
train,assumingasimilarseatingcapacityastheMetrolink’scars(CaliforniaDepartmentof
Transportation,2013).
EnvironmentalImpacts
TherailsystemsdiscussedrunalongtheLOSSANCorridortravelingthroughOrange
County’s and San Diego County’s coastal region. Therefore, when these projects were
initially considered, approval from theCoastal Commissionwas needed tomove forward
with therailupgradeplans.Concernshavebeenaddressedregarding therunoff fromthe
constructionprojectsaswellastheunavoidablefillimpactstothewetlands.TheCalifornia
CoastalCommissionreleasedtheNorthCoastCorridorPublicWorksPlan&Transportation
and Resources Enhancement Program (California Coastal Commission San Diego Area,
2014)reportinJune2014regardingtheproposedprojectsfortherailenhancementsand
theprojects’environmentaleffectonthecoastalregion.
The proposed rail service enhancement projects were determined after
consideration for various alternatives were review. The projects selected had the least
negative impact to the surrounding environments. The Resource Enhancement and
Mitigation Program (REMP) was put in place to provide environmental benefits such as
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 100
restoringandenhancingnaturalcoastalregionswhichactuallyenhanceandgainhabitatsin
areassuchas theBatiquitosandLosPeñasquitosLagoons.Theenhancements includethe
expansion of bridges to improve the water flow leading to a more self‐sustainable
environment. REMP also includes funding for maintenance of these lagoons and for a
Scientific Advisory Committee which monitors the mitigation process (California Coastal
CommissionSanDiegoArea,2014).
Furthermore,theproposedrailenhancementprojectarerequiredtominimizerisk
byensuringstructural integrityandstability,andtoreducetherisk fromarise inthesea
level. The proposed projects include monitoring devices to sensor ground movement as
wellasaplantominimizeconstructionrunoff.
Currently, the waterways have all been adversely affected by urbanization so
without the proposed rail projects, these waterways would continue to be damaged.
However, the proposed rail projects help through habitat restoration projects, aswell as
throughreductioninemissionsbypromotingpublictransportation,hopefullyloweringthe
numberof vehicles on the road. If theproposed rail project didnotmove forward, there
wouldbeinconsistencieswiththeCoastalActpolicies30210‐30213,30252(publicaccess),
30230,30231(marinebiologyandwaterquality),30250(concentrationofdevelopment),
and 30253 (air quality). The proposed project will be monitored throughout the
developmentphasessoREMP isbasedon the latestdata, suchassea level rise,andmost
innovativetechnologies(CaliforniaCoastalCommissionSanDiegoArea,2014).
CapacityManagementforProposedAirport
As mentioned in private transportation section, of the 66.6 million passengers
served by the Los Angeles Airport (LAX) in 2011, 62% originated from (LAX) (UNISON
Consulting, 2012). Of the 17.7 million passengers served by the San Diego International
Airport in 2008 (SAN) 47% originated at SAN (Malcom Pirnie, 2008). This provides an
averageof54.61%ofpassengersbetweenLAXandSANwhooriginatedat thoseairports.
Additionally,only3%fromLAXusedpublictransportation(UNISONConsulting,2012)and
only1.2%usepublictransportationatSAN(MalcomPirnie,2008)providinganaverageof
2.1%oforiginatingpassengersusingpublictransportation.
According to thePacificSurflinerReport, theplanneddevelopmentwill lead toan
expected48%weightedaverageincreaseinridershipin2040versusnodevelopmentalong
the tracks on the Coastal Corridor (California Department of Transportation, 2013).
AppendixC.7showstheweightedaverageincreasecalculation.Sincethisexpectedincrease
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 101
inridership isbaseduponcommuters,notairlinepassengers,weconservativelyestimate
10% of originating passengers will use public transportation rather than the current
averageof2.1%. Assuming10%oforiginatingpassengerswillusepublic transportation,
thisestimatesanadditional4,488passengersperdayor justover1.6millionpassengers
annuallyasisshowninTable3.2.
Table3.6:Calculatesthecapacityusedin2013foreachrailline.
Currently, public transportation is being underutilized. On average, 23.4% of
capacity is used for the SPRINTER which travels east of the proposed airport, 49.3% of
capacity is used for the rails traveling south of the proposed airport which include the
COASTER (NCTD, 2013) and Amtrak’s Pacific Surfliner (Amtrak, 2013), and 73.7% of
capacityisusedforrailstravelingnorthoftheproposedairportwhichincludeMetrolink’s
Orange County line and Inland Empire Orange County line (Metrolink, 2013). Table 3.6
reflectsthecapacityusedin2013foreachrailservice.Sincewedonothavedataavailable
forthenumberofpassengerswhowouldtraveleithereast,south,ornorth,wecanconsider
theworst case scenario that thesepassengerswouldall travel inonedirection. If all1.6
million passengers traveled east, this would only be 5.3% of 2040 capacity for the
eastbound rail, 2.2% of 2040 capacity for the southbound rails, and 13.7% of the
northboundrails.ThesecalculationscanbereferencedinTable3.7.
According to the Pacific Surfliner South Corridor Service Development Plan,
forecastedrailridershipisexpectedtoincreasebutnotatagreaterratethantheforecasted
CAPACITYUSED2013
2013AnnualPassengers
2013AnnualCapacity
CapacityUsed(%)
NCTD
COASTER 1,629,196 5,621,000 29.0%
SPRINTER 2,400,000 10,269,440 23.4%
METROLINK
OrangeCountyLine 2,525,873 3,661,680 69.0%
InlandEmpire‐OrangeCountyLine 1,300,761 2,023,560 64.3%
AMTRAK
AmtrakSurfliner 2,705,823 3,179,880 85.1%
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 102
increaseinrailcapacity(CaliforniaDepartmentofTransportation,2013).Since,thepercent
of capacity used is not expected to considerably change, the planned improvements to
publictransportationwouldbeabletohandletheforecasted1.6millionannualadditional
passengersfromtheproposedairport.
ParkingInfrastructure
Introduction
The SCIA will require substantial parking options for passengers parking at the
airport, or passengers parking at public transportation hubs. The proposed parking
infrastructurewillneedtotakeintoaccounttheinitialneedsofthegrowingpopulation,as
wellasthegrowingneedsasthenumberoftravelersincrease.
ParkingInfrastructureatOtherAirports
Estimates for parking needs at SCIA were established using other international
airports throughout theUS.When compared to airports such asDulles andGeorgeBush,
San Diego International Airport has a high number of passengers per parking spaces as
showninTable3.8.
2040CAPACITYEFFECTFROMPROPOSEDAIRPORTTRAVELERS
10%ofOriginating
AverageCapacityUsed
AIRPORT
IMPACT
EastofSCIAAdditionalRiders 5.3% 23.4%
SouthofSCIAAdditionalRiders 10.6% 49.3%
NorthofSCIAAdditionalRiders 13.7% 73.7%
Table3.7:Theaveragecapacityusedin2013forrailstravelingeast,south,ornorthandthepercentageof2040capacityusedifall10%oforiginatingpassengerswoulduserailstravelingeithereast,south,ornorthoftheproposedairport.
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 103
Airport Passengers ParkingSpaces Passengers/Spaces
DullesAirport 22,600,000 20,000 1130
GeorgeBush 40,000,000 25,000 1600
LosAngeles 64,000,000 16,000 4000
SanDiego 17,710,000 3,800 4661
PHL 30,770,000 19,000 1619
SCIA 30,000,000 19,000 1579
Table3.8:Comparisonofparkingspacesamonginternationalairports.
The lack of parking at SAN can partly be explained by the availability of parking
throughoutdowntownSanDiego,andtheyear‐roundweatherbeingconduciveforfurther
walking–orridesharing–fromdistantparkinglocations.
The location of SCIA positions it away from a large downtown setting, making
nearby parking facilities less attractive alternatives for handling the parking passengers.
SCIAwillneedparkinginfrastructuresdeliberatelydesignedforairportpassengers.
SCIAParkingInfrastructure
At its totalcapacity,SCIAneedstopreparetosupport30M.This isverysimilarto
Philadelphia Airport (PHL) which had 30.77M travelers 2012. PHL offers has 19,000
parkingspaces.Therefore,SCIAshouldhavespacereservedforthesamenumberofparking
spaces.WhiletheratioofpassengerstoparkingspacesismuchgreaterthanDullesAirport
orGeorgeBush,itisconsiderablylowerthanLAX.
ParkingInfrastructureDesign
AccordingtoSection6792of theZoningOrdinance,eachparkingspotshouldbea
minimumof9feetwideand18feetlong(largerforhandicapaccessiblespots).Thisallows
astandardfullsizevehicletopark.Ifparkingstructuresofferone‐wayaisles,awidthof12
feetisneeded,or24feetforatwowayaisle.
Table 3.9 shows the requirements for parking design from the San Diego County
ParkingDesignManualandFigure3.2showsthegeometricshapeslistedinthefirstcolumn
inTable3.9.
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 104
Figure3.2:Shapeofaparallelparkingangle.
ParkingforPrivateTransportation
UsingPHLasabenchmarkforSCIA,thespecificationsforparkingspacesareshown
inTable3.10.
Widthofonespace: 9’
Table3.9:Requirementsforparkingdesign.
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 105
Lengthofonespace: 18’
TotalSq.Ftperspace: 162sq.ft.
Spaces: 19,000
Acres: 71(3,078,000SF)
Single‐story: 71acres
Two‐story: 36acres
Three‐story: 24acres
Four‐story: 18acres
Five‐story: 15acres
Table3.10:Parkingspacesspecifications.
Table3.11:Acreagerequired.
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 106
This does not take into account logistical infrastructure such as ramps, gates, or
bufferareasbetweenparkingandotherstructures.Italsoassumessingle‐storystructures,
sotheacreagecanbedecreasedasreflectedinTable3.11.
Logically, parking spaceswill be separated intomultiple structures, eachwith its
own entrance, exit, and payment booths.Onepossible strategy in this regard is to locate
someparkingstructuresoffsite.
ParkingforPublicTransportationandRemoteParking
Since SCIA won’t be located in a downtown area, the traffic will increase
significantlyintheimmediateareasurroundtheairport,onSR‐76.Becauseofthis,itwillbe
advantageousto locatesomeparkingstructuresaway fromtheairport,allowingtravelers
toparkoff‐locationand takepublic transportation(suchasbusordedicatedtrain) to the
airportterminal.
In thisscenario, someof theparkingstructuresmightbe located in theOceanside
area,allowingpassengerstoparkinOceansideandtakeabusortraintoSCIA.Thiswould
alleviatetrafficintheimmediatearea.
Recommendations
PublicTransportation
TheproposedimprovementsincludedintheNCCPWP/TREParedesignedtocope
withtheexpecteddemandduetothenormalpopulationgrowthintheregionby2040.We
propose that other initiatives be put into place to accommodate the addition of a new
internationalairportandtoreduceenvironmentalimpact.AlongwiththeNCCPWP/TREP,
weproposethat furtheraccommodationsaremadetotheexisting infrastructureandthat
additionalprojectsarepursuedtoencouragetravelerstousemasstransitratherthansingle
occupancyvehicles.
While the addition of a second track, or double track, throughout the entire rail
corridor has been accepted as ameans to increase capacity, other design improvements
shouldbeconsidered. Forexample,currently thereare twooptions for thedesignof rail
crossings: at‐grade and trench tracking. At‐grade rail crossings cause temporary road
closures impacting local circulationofvehicles,pedestrian, andbike traffic (CarlsbadCity
Counsel,2014). Inaddition, it createsnoiseandairquality impacts,and isgenerally less
safethantrenchrailcrossings.Implementingtrenchrailcrossingspullstracksoffofservice
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 107
street levels creating less congestion at arterial roads and allowing for continuous traffic
flow. Further, trench rail crossings use bridges to allow for safer pedestrian crossing.
Finally, it also lowers emissionsdue to less idle time from temporary road closures. For
these reasons, despite the fact that trench rail crossings are significantlymore expensive
than at grade crossing, it recommended that trench rail crossings are considered. It is
important to consider that future SCIA passengers may be composed of more
environmentallyconsciousgenerations.Furthermore,sustainabilityisofincreasingconcern
intheUnitedStatesandespeciallyinthewesternregion.Becauseofthis,thereishopethat
morepeoplewouldbewillingtouseconvenientpublictransportation,makingtrafficinthe
Tri‐Countyregionmoremanageable.Thisshouldbeleveragedinfuturedevelopments.The
habitsoffuturegenerationsmaybedifferentfromthoseofcurrentairportpassengers.
To overcome some of the aversions to public transportation, improving parking
facilities at transit centers should make travelers feel confident leaving vehicles for an
extended period of time. Offering overnight parking at competitive rates may cover
operationalcosts,andincentivizeairportpassengerstousepublictransportation.
TheOceansideTransitCenter isa central junction forvariouspublic transportation lines.
Forthisreason, itrepresentsanopportunitytoprovideimprovedlinkagesamongvarious
transportationmodesandSCIA.Thisaddstotheattractivenessoflocatinganinternational
airportintheOceansideareaasthemasstransitinfrastructuretoserveitisalreadyinplace
withplanstoimproveit.Themissingingredientwouldbeadirectconnectionbetweenthe
Oceanside Transit Center and Southern California International Airport. This could be
accomplished not only through bus services and bus lanes, but perhaps even through a
dedicated monorail that would be an environmentally friendly system that would not
exacerbate current or future road traffic. Such a system could extend to offsite parking
structuresandreducetrafficcongestionintheimmediateareaofSCIA.
Another alternative is a dedicated shuttle bus to transport passengers from the
Oceanside Transit Center to the SCIA terminal. Due to the amount of traffic already
experiencedinthisareaandthetrafficgeneratedasaresultoftheairport,adedicatedlane
shouldbemadeavailableespeciallyforbuses.
PrivateTransportation
In addition to public transportation infrastructure, new access roads need to be
created inorderprovideaccess to SCIA.Currently, thereare twoarterial roadsoff SR‐76
thatcouldbeexpandedtoreachthenewairport;BenetRoadandFoussatRoad.Theseroads
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 108
wind throughneighborhoods and arenotmeant for thehigh volumesof traffic that SCIA
would create. Therefore, four alternatives are recommended. Each recommendation
includesaseparatecheck‐in/parkingsitenotattachedtothemainairportandareshownin
Figure3.3.Shuttleswouldtaketravelerstoandfromthecheck‐inpointtotheairport.
The location of site 1 (11.8 acres) is directly adjacent to LOSSAN rail tracks
providing seamless connections. In addition, this location offers easy access for bus lines
andprivatevehicles.Site1wouldalsobenefittheCityofOceansideasamethodtocleanup
seedy areas of town. Although this may prove to be a challenge as there are multiple
residential and commercial lots to be acquired. Other challenges include difficulty in
traversing over/under the I‐5 overpass, maneuvering construction around ecological
preserves,andcreatingampleparkingwithlimitedspace.
Thelocationofsite2(37.8acres)isdirectlyaccessiblefromSR‐76andverycloseto
I‐5access.Inaddition,thelandisundeveloped.Thechallengewiththislocationisaslight
gradeandsurroundingecologicalpreserveswhichcreatedifficultyforconnectingroadsfor
shuttlestoandfromtheairport.
Figure3.3:Recommendedcheck‐in/parkingsite.
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Chapter3:GroundTransportation 109
Thelocationofsite3(43.2acres)hasthebenefitofdirectaccesstotheairportwith
no penetration of ecological preserves. The current businesses in this location include
cementandsalvageyardsandmaybeeasilypurchased.Despitethisareabeingonahill,itis
effectively terraced, allowing for less intensive and costly construction. The challenge for
thissiteistheneedtoextendorconstructanaccessroadfromSR‐76.
Thelocationofsite4(86.7acres),anolddriveinmovietheater,whichisusedfor
swapmeetsaswellastravelingeventsthatcouldeasilyberepurposed.Location4provides
directaccesstoSCIAandisalsodirectlyadjacenttoSR‐76.Inaddition,itiseasilyaccessible
throughFoussatRoad.Oneissuewiththislocationislargeresidentialareastothewest,but
canbeeasilybemitigated.
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 110
Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect
Introduction
This chapter examines the regional economic effects of the proposed Southern
CaliforniaInternationalAirporttobebuiltonornearCampPendletoninNorthSanDiego
County. According to the Airports Council International – North America (ACI‐NA),
“America’s commercial airports are powerful economic engines generating billions of
dollars in annual activity, and supporting millions of good, stable jobs” (“The Economic
Impact of Commercial Airports”, 2014). Approximately 9.6million jobs are supported by
airportsintheUnitedStatesand1.3millionpeopleworkatU.S.commercialairports.This
equates to approximately 7% of the jobs in the U.S. All U.S. airports combined have an
output of $1.1 trillion, representing about 8% of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).
Airportsareimportantresourcesfortravelersandanevenmoreimportantengineforcities
andstatestosupportjobcreationandgrowth.
Thefollowingsectionsanalyzethedirectemploymentopportunitiesbroughtabout
by construction and on‐airport activities. Then, itwill expand to consider the impacts of
indirect and induced employment and economic development on sectors served by and
servingtheairport.
ResearchQuestions
Thisreportaddressestwobroadresearchquestions:
1. Howwill thenewairportaffect employmentwhile it isbeingbuilt andwhen it is
operational?
2. Howwill the jobscreatedaffect the localeconomyand the local, stateand federal
taxbases?
Buildinganewinternationalairportwillbringthousandsofconstructionjobstothe
region. This report estimates the number of construction jobs created during the
construction of the airport facility, aswell as the costs of construction, including payroll.
With this information, the local economic impact from the construction project on local
housing, foodandentertainmentproviderswillbeestimated,aswill stateand federal tax
contributions.
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 111
Once built, the fully operational airport will employ thousands of new onsite
employees.Examplesincludepilots,security,immigration,customs,air‐trafficcontrol,flight
attendants,vendors,andotherairportemployees.Thisreportestimatestheleveloftheon‐
airportemploymentthatwouldbegeneratedbytheproposedairport.Beyondcommercial
air travel, the proposed airport will also play a vital role in cargo transport, generating
additionalcargo‐relatedemployment.Thereportprojectsthenumberofcargo‐relatedjobs
createdbythenewairport.Itthenassessestheeconomicimpacttheseemployeeswillhave
onthelocaleconomy,aswellthelocal,state,andfederaltaxbases.
Establishing a large international airport in North County would greatly impact
small businesses and create an influx of new businesses, including hotels, gas stations,
retail,parking,autorentals,amongothers. The increase inbusiness forexistingandnew
companies will continue to fuel the economy, eventually generating enough revenue for
businesses to expand. This surge of jobs creates is expected to increase spending,
stimulatingeconomicgrowthandemploymentopportunitiesinotherindustries,therefore
establishingthemultipliereffect.Thisreportalsoestimatestheresultingimpactonthelocal
economysurroundingthetargetedregion.
Methodology
The teamconducted secondary researchusingmultiple resources andbenchmark
studies. The benchmarks for direct employment are the airports in cities with similar
demographics and geographic characteristics that have been built within the last few
decades. In particular, The Denver International Airport (DIA) is the most recent
internationalairportthathasbeenbuiltandwillbeusedasamajorreferencetoassessthe
demandforconstruction,aswellastheimpactofconstructionemploymentintheregion.
The current San Diego International Airport recently underwent a large terminal
expansionproject thatwasalso considered in theanalysis.The averagehourlywage and
annualsalaryofconstructionworkersinSanDiegowasfoundthroughTheBureauofLabor
Statistics. The Business Analyst Online tool from ESRI’s arcGIS software was used
extensively to examine the spendinghabits of residents andhousing availabilitywithin a
five‐mile radius of the proposed airport site. This helped to estimate the local economic
impactoftheworkersexpectedtotraveltotheregiontoworkontheairportconstruction
project.
AsurveyofthemajorairportsinCalifornia,conductedbytheAppliedDevelopment
Economics(ADE),helpedestimatethedirectemploymentimpactontheregion(Appendix
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 112
4.1).Accordingtothisstudy,thecurrentemploymentatallthemajorairportsinCalifornia
isestimatedat117,000(EconomicImpactStudyofCaliforniaAirports,2013).Thedetailed
employmentimpactsfromvariousjobcategoriesattheproposedairportwerestudied.The
report also consulted the recent economic impact studies, prepared for the neighboring
airports,asbenchmarksagainstwhich tomeasureandestimate the futuregrowthrateof
employmentatthisairport.
Using insights from other employment impact studies, statistical model software
such as Crystal Ball and statistical methods such as regression were used to model and
forecast personnel needs for a new airport. A recent study shows that the correlation
coefficient between on‐airport employment and total number of passengers is as high as
0.95.Thisshowsahighcorrelationbetweenthetwofactors.Thiscorrelationcanbeutilized
to estimate the employment statistics from the total number of passengers. Crystal Ball
software,whichisanapplicationsuiteforpredictivemodeling,forecasting,simulationand
optimization,isusedtoestimatethetotalnumberofpassengersforthenewairport.
Inordertoestimatethenumberofbusinessesrequiredtosupportthenewairport’s
operations, a benchmark airportwasneeded for comparison. SanFrancisco International
Airport(SFO)wasselectedduetoitsoperationalsimilaritiestotheproposedairport.The
Business Analyst Tool ESRI’s arcGIS software was used to map out the number of
businesses in the area surrounding the airport. Contrasting the amount of business
surroundingSFOwithitspopulationproducedaratiothatwasusedtogaugethepotential
off‐airport employment growth around SCIA. The softwarewas also used to retrieve the
averagedisposableincomeforthepopulationnearSCIA.This,alongwithnumbersfromthe
San Diego Tourism Authority, was used to estimate the possible cash flow back into the
localeconomy.
AnalysisandResults
ConstructionCostsandEmployment
Todeterminethenumberofemployeesneededduringtheconstructionphaseofthe
newairportproject,datafromtheDenverInternationalAirportbuildandtherecentGreen
Buildprojectat theSanDiegoInternationalAirportwereused.TheGreenBuildproject is
themost recent upgrade to the San Diego International Airport, completed in 2013. The
GreenBuild project included numerous substantial upgrades to Terminal 2, including 10
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 113
newgates,adual‐levelroadwayforseparatinginboundandoutboundtraffic,enhancements
tocurbsideservicesandsecuritycheckpoints,andmanynewdiningandshoppingoptions.
Thisprojectwas completedon timeandunderbudget.According to theGreenBuild fact
sheet,atotalof7,000constructionworkerscompletedtheprojectoverfouryears(Historic
$900Million,2013).
The Denver International Airport was opened in 1995 after six years of
construction. This project is themost recent full construction project of an international
airportintheUnitedStates.TheDenverInternationalAirportconsistsofsixrunways,three
timesasmanyastheproposedairport.DIAemployed11,000constructionworkersforthat
project.
Whencomparingtheemploymentandconstructiontimeframesforthetwoprojects
used for benchmarking, it seemed reasonable to assume approximately 11,000 workers
would be needed, and a ten‐year construction timeframe, for the proposed airport.
AlthoughDIAislargerthantheproposedairport,itwasbuiltfromthegroundup,muchlike
theproposedairportwillbe.Sincetheproposedairportisalsoinaslightlymorepopulated
area, and would necessitate close involvement with the United States Military, the
prediction that the project would take ten years was used. This conservative estimate
includes additional time for negotiations between the Military, federal, state, and local
officials andorganizations. Regarding employmentnumbers, the SanDiego International
Airport’sGreenBuildprojectwassmall incomparisontothebuildingofDIAbutrequired
over 60% of the DIA’s construction employment. Due to this, and the fact that the
constructionoftheproposedairportwillbefarlargerthantheGreenBuildproject,having
11,000constructionworkersseemedrealistic.
ConstructionEmployees&Wages
Projected construction costs were used from the EAS 2013 report. Those
projectionswentthroughtheyear2030.Forthecurrentproject,itisassumedtherewillbe
a construction start date of 2030with a completiondate of 2040 (10 years). To find the
projected construction costs over the 10 year period, the projected cost in 2030 of
$19,983,456,136wasinflatedandamortizedoverthe10years.Theamortizationchartsare
in Appendix 4.2. Table 4.1 shows the comparisons of the three airport projects. Initial
constructioncostswerecalculatedin2013dollarsandadjustedto2040dollars.
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 114
According to theGreenBuild project fact sheet, 45%of the cost of the SanDiego
International Airport upgradewent to local and small businesses (Historic $900Million,
2013).SincetheproposedairportisrelativelyclosetotheexistingSanDiegoInternational
Airport, itwould be easy to assume thatmany of the same local construction companies
couldbeused for theproposedairport constructionproject.Using themorerealistic cost
assumption from the table, the 2.5% inflation rate, approximately $10billion of the total
construction cost will go to local and small construction and support businesses. This
supportstheassumptionthat45%oftheconstructionworkers(4,950)wouldbelocal.The
other 55%of the constructionworkers, or6,050workers,wouldbe transient employees
whomayrelocatetotheregionforthedurationoftheproject.
In2013, therewereapproximately46,150constructionworkers in theSanDiego‐
Carlsbad‐San Marcos region (May 2013 OES, 2013). These workers earned an average
wageof$25.38perhourandanaverageof$52,780peryear (OccupationalEmployment,
2014).With the assumption that 11,000workerswould be employed over 10 years, the
average payroll cost for the construction project would equal approximately $11 billion.
Thiswascalculatedbyadjustingthe2013annualwagetotheequivalent2030wagevalues,
usinganinflationrateof2.5%peryear.Appendix4.3showsthebreakdownofwagesand
payroll costsover theyears2030‐2040.Theaverageconstructionworker for thisproject
wouldmakeperyear$91,142onaverage,overthetenyears.
Taxes,After‐TaxIncomes,andOutwardEconomicContributionofConstruction
Usingthesalarydata,thetaxrevenuesgeneratedbythisprojectandtheafter‐taxincomeof
the construction workers as individuals and collectively whole, can be calculated. The
California state income tax for thewages paid to the employees of the proposed airport
constructionprojectwouldbe9.3%plus$2,240annually(2014CaliforniaTax,2014).The
averagefederaltaxeswouldequalabout19%,or$17,495(2013TaxTable,2013).Table4.2
representsthebreakdownof theaverageannualsalarytotheamountspaidtowardtaxes
Project YearstoComplete
No.OfEmployees
ConstructionCost(2013)
2040CostEstimation
SANGreenBuild 4 7,000 $907,000,000 $1,766,654,616DenverInternationalAirport 6 11,000 $7,337,228,346 $14,291,453,506
*SouthernCaliforniaInternationalAirport
10 11,000 $7,251,341,284 $22,493,501,189Inflation:2.5%
*Estimated Table4.1:ConstructioncomparisonsbetweentheSAN GreenBuild,DenverInternationalAirportandtheprojectedairport.
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 115
andtheamountleftoverasafter‐tax‐income.Thesetaxcalculationsonlytakeintoaccount
state and federal taxes and do not include specific individual’s filing differences and/or
deductions.Also, in thisreport “After‐Tax‐Income” isused torefer toallof theremaining
incomeaftertaxesarededucted.
Individual Total %ofAnnualSalary
Avg.AnnualSalary $91,141.80 $1,002,559,800.00 ‐
CaliforniaIncomeTax $10,715.90 $117,874,871.40 12%
FederalIncomeTax 17,494.75 $192,442,250.00 19%
After‐Tax‐Income $62,931.15 $692,242,678.60 69%
Table4.2:Break‐downofstateand federaltaxesandafter‐tax‐income foran individualandtotalemployees.
According to this table, California can expect almost $118 million in additional
incometaxrevenuefromtheprojectperyear.Similarly,theUnitedStatesgovernmentcan
expectover$192millionintaxrevenuefromtheprojectperyear.Thisequatesto31%of
the individual construction worker’s annual income being spent on taxes. The local
community can expect over $692 million to potentially be spent on housing, food,
entertainment,etc.bytheconstructionworkers,peryear.
Figure 4.1 shows the values for an average construction worker’s annual
expenditures by percentage and dollar amount. Four categories of expenditures were
studied:foodanddrink(includingalcohol),entertainment,housing,andother.InSanDiego,
annualpersonalexpenditurepercentagesforthosecategorieswere13.3%,4.8%,38%and
56%respectively(ConsumerExpenditures,2013).
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 116
Tofactorinthemultipliereffectoftheconstructionworkers,ESRI’sarcGISsoftware
wasusedtomapouta1,3,and5‐mileradiusboundaryaroundtheapproximatesiteofthe
proposed airport (Appendix 4.4). This allowed for specific data collection in regards to
businesslocations,employee,andpopulationexpendituresandhabits.Table4.3showsthe
number of food/drink and entertainment businesses and employees directly affected by
annual expenditures from the construction workers. These values are from 2014. These
values are expected to increase as a result of theopeningof theproposed airport before
2040. Figure 4.2 and Figure 4.3 show the arcGIS maps representing the food/drink
businesses and the entertainment businesses within the 1, 3, and 5 mile radius of the
proposedairportlocation,respectively.
PercentageofAfter‐tax‐Income
AmountofAfter‐tax‐Income Businesses Employees
Food/Drink 13.30% $8,369.84 463 5599Entertainment 4.80% $3,020.70 229 1361Table4.3:Thenumberofbusinessesandemployeespotentiallyaffectedbyaconstructionworker’safter‐tax‐incomewithinafivemileradiusoftheproposedairport.
$8,369.8413% $3,020.66
5%
$23,913.8438%
$27,626.7744%
Food/Drink
Entertainment
Housing
Other
Figure4.1:Approximatepercentageanddollarvalueofafter‐tax‐incomeexpendituresperconstructionworkerperyear.
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 117
Figure4.2:Foodanddrinkbusinesseswithina1,3,and5mileradiusofproposedairportlocation.
Figure 4.3:Entertainmentbusinesseswithina1,3,and5mileradiusofproposedairportlocation.
Itisprojectedthat55%oftheconstructionemployeeswillbetransient,orfromout
of the area, andmay need housing options close to the proposed airport site. Figure 4.4
shows the saturation of rental units within the 5‐mile radius of the proposed airport
location.Figure4.5showstherangeofaveragerentalpriceswithinthe5‐mileradiusofthe
proposedairportlocation.
There are approximately 31,300 rental unitswithin the 5‐mile radius. The rental
unitsonCampPendletonwerenotconsideredbecausenon‐militarypersonnelwillnotbe
entitledtorentthem.Totalunitsfromsegmentsthatweremorethanhalfwayoutsideofthe
5mile radiuswere eliminated from consideration.Of the remaining units, approximately
6,000 are expected to be vacant in the area, projected for the year 2019. Assuming the
current Vacant Rental Unit to Total Rental Unit ratiowill be the same in 2030, it would
meanapproximately19%ofthetotalrentalunitswouldbeavailableatanygiventime.The
averagerentforthisareawas$1,411.Therentalunitsandaveragerentarecurrentfigures.
Although the areawithin the 5‐mile radius is relatively densely populated andmay only
haveaslightincreaseintotalrentalunitsby2030,itwouldbeexpectedthatrentalprices
wouldgrowapproximately3%peryear(SanDiegoHomePrices,2014).Thatwouldequate
toanaveragerentof$2,264in2030.
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 118
Figure4.4:Rentalunitswithina1,3,and5mileradiusoftheproposedairportlocation.Thelightestcolorsrepresenttheleastsaturation;darkestcolorsrepresentthemostsaturation.
Figure4.5:Averagerentalpriceswithina1,3,and5mileradiusfromtheproposedairportlocation.Thelightestcolorsrepresentthelowestprices;darkestcolorsrepresentthehigher
On‐AirportEmployment
RegressionAnalysis
This sectiondiscusses regression analysis that examines the relationshipbetween
on‐airport jobs and thenumberof totalpassengers. CrystalBall, a statistical tool, is also
usedtopredictthenumberoffuturepassengersfortheproposedairport.
Table4.4showsthenumberofon‐airportemployeesandthenumberofpassengers
peryear for tenmajorU.S.airports fromacrossseveralstates. This table shows323,912
employees work on‐site compared to around 412.65 million passengers flown through
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 119
them suggesting that around 785 on‐airport employees are required for every million
passengers. The fourth column of this table shows the density, which is defined as the
numberofpassengersservedbyoneemployee.WiththeexceptionofSAN,theothernine
airports show an average density of 1,296 whereas SAN has a density of 3,291. This
informationclearlyrevealsthatSANemployeesareservingmorethandoublethenumber
ofpassengersthanmanyothermajorU.S.airports.Clearly,SANseemstobeunder‐staffed
andhashugepotentialintermsofon‐airportemployment.
Regressionanalyzestherelationshipbetweenon‐airportemploymentandnumber
ofpassengersandassesseswhether,and towhatextent, theyare linearlycorrelated.The
number of passengers is an independent variable‐ y, and number of employees‐ x, is a
dependentvariable.Theslopeoftheindependentvariable,m,definesthenumberincrease
inyforeachadditionalunitincreaseinx.So,y=mx.Itshouldbenotedthatthesamplesize
for this regression analysis of national airports and the subsequent analysis of California
airportsareverysmall.
Airport EmploymentNoofPassengers/Year Density
ChicagoO'HareInternationalAirport(ORD) 53,459 66,883,271 1,251LosAngelesInternationalAirport(LAX) 59,000 66,667,619 1,130Dallas/FortWorthInternationalAirport(DFW) 60,000 60,436,266 1,007JohnF.KennedyInternationalAirport(JFK) 36,620 50,423,765 1,377SanFranciscoInternationalAirport(SFO) 33,580 44,944,201 1,338NewarkLibertyInternationalAirport(EWR) 19,700 35,016,236 1,777PhoenixSkyHarborInternationalAirport(PHX) 32,870 40,341,614 1,227ChicagoMidwayInternationalAirport(MDW) 15,302 20,491,422 1,339SanDiegoInternationalAirport(SAN) 5,381 17,710,241 3,291OaklandInternationalAirport(OAK) 8,000 9,742,887 1,218
Total=323,912 Total=412,657,522Table4.4.Summaryofon‐airportemployment‐totalnumberofpassengerrelationshipforfewmajorU.S.airports.
Forthepurposesofthisstudy,thenumberofairportemployeesisregressedbased
onthenumberofpassengersyieldingtheANOVAtableshowninAppendix4.5.ThisANOVA
table shows that the correlation coefficient, ρ, between passengers and the number of
employeesisaround0.965.Thatrepresentsahighcorrelationbetweenthesetwovariables.
TheteamalsoinvestigatedwhetherornotthisstrongcorrelationalsoholdsforCalifornia
airports.Totestthis,fiveCaliforniaairportswereselectedandanotherregressionanalysis
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 120
wasperformed.Table4.5 shows these fiveairportsand their representativeemployment
statistics,alongwiththetotalnumberofpassengersfortheyear2013and2012.
EmploymentPassenger2013
Passenger2012
GrowthRate
LosAngelesInternationalAirport 59,000 66,667,619 63,688,121 4.7%
SanFranciscoInternationalAirport 33,580 44,945,760 44,399,885 1.2%
SanDiegoInternationalAirport 5,381 17,710,241 17,250,265 2.7%
OaklandInternationalAirport 8,000 9,742,887 10,040,864 ‐3.0%
JohnWayneAirport 5,400 9,232,789 8,857,944 4.2%
SanJoseInternationalAirport 2,987 8,783,319 8,296,174 5.9%
SacramentoInternationalAirport 3,290 8,685,368 8,910,570 ‐2.5%
Table4.5.Summaryofemployment‐totalnumberofpassenger relationshipforfewCaliforniaairports
For the regression analysis, the total passenger amounts from 2013 were used,
yieldingtheANOVAtablesasshowninAppendix4.5(secondandthirdtables).Thesetables
showanevenstrongercorrelationbetweenpassengersandthenumberofemployees,with
theρbeing0.988. This impliesthattheprojectedon‐airportemploymentforSCIAcanbe
foundbydividingthetotalpassengerbythedensityfactor.
TofindoutthenumberofpassengersforSCIA,weconsideredSANasabenchmark
airport because of its proximity to the proposed SCIA airport. Currently SAN has one
runway, whereas the proposed SCIA will have two runways. It is presumed that the
proposed SCIA airportwill eventually serve almost twice the number of passengers that
SAN is capable of handling at its full operational capacity, however this will not be
immediate.Forthepurposeofthisstudy,itwasprojectedthatSCIAwilloperateat133%of
SAN,in2040.CurrentlySANisrunningat63%ofitsoperationalcapacityanditwillreach
anoperationalcapacityconstraintlevelby2030.ByestimatingwhatSAN’spassengerrate
wouldbe in2040, if it had the capacity for thedemand, couldhelpus to estimateSCIA’s
projectedpassengernumber.
ToestimateSAN’spassengernumber in2040we followedtwoapproaches. In the
firstapproach,thegrowthrateofpassengersfromyear2012to2013forthefiveCalifornia
airportsismeasured,asshowninTable4.6andthen,theaveragegrowthrateiscalculated
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 121
subsequentlywhichcomesouttobeas1.9%.Usingthisaveragegrowthrate,weestimate
SAN’spassengernumberin2040as,
=passengersin2013* 1 (1)
Accordingtoourassumption,thetotalnumberofpassengersofSCIA, ′willbe:
1.33 ∗ (2)
Following this approach, was calculated to be 38,981,029 passengers. Dividing
thisnumberbythenationaldensity,wefindtheprojectedon‐airportemploymentatSCIA
tobe30,078.
Inthefirstapproach, it isassumedthatSAN’saveragegrowthratewillremainthe
same for the next 27 years. However, thatmight be unrealistic due to other factors (i.e.
economicboomordown‐turn).Thisleadsustothesecondapproachwherethepassenger
growthrateRforSANisassumedtobearandomvariablehavinganormaldistribution.The
standard deviation σ, and mean µ, was calculated for this random variable using the
passengerdataforSANfromtheyear2006to2013.ThisdataispresentedinTable4.6.
Year Passenger
2006 17,481,9422007 18,336,7612008 18,125,7012009 16,974,1722010 16,889,6222011 16,890,7222012 17,250,2652013 17,710,241Table4.6:PassengernumberforSAN.
Assuming that the number of passengers at year is where the amount at the
previousyear 1was ,thegrowthrate,R,iscalculatedas:
/ (3)
Usingthisequation,themeangrowthrateisfoundtobeas0.24%.Nextwecalculate
thevarianceofthegrowthrateusingthefollowingequation:
σ∑
(4)
Here,Nisthetotalnumberofyears forwhichtheactualdataarecollected, inour
caseitiseight.Solvingthisequation,wefind tobeas0.0011011.Thestandarddeviation,
σ,wasthencalculatedasthesquarerootofthisvalue,whichis3.32%.CrystalBallsoftware
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 122
wasusedatthispointtopredictthepassengervalueofSANin2040usingtheσandµthat
we calculated in the aforementioned section, thus finding the passenger number to be
27,111,250. Using equation 2, SCIA passenger value ′ equals 36,057,962. Dividing this
value bynational density tells us that the on‐airport employment at SCIAwill be around
27,823. This second approach is slightly more conservative, estimating 2,250 fewer
projectedemployeesthanwhatwasfoundbythefirstapproach.
Takingtheaverageof thesetwoapproacheswecanpredict that theprojectedon‐
airportemploymentatSCIAwillbearound28,950.
ImpactofFreight/CargoonEmployment
According to a study prepared by the California Airport Council (CAC) in 2011
(AnnualReport,2011), thecommercialairportsofCaliforniaaccountedforthemovement
of almost 3.5million tons of air cargo. CAC also published in 2013 that in all California
airports, around 117,398 employees were employed of whom 10,068 were directly
involvedinaircargooperations.Thisinformationsuggestsaround8.58%oftheon‐airport
employmentisactuallyrelatedtotheair‐cargorelatedactivitiesinCalifornia.
In2013, SAN reached itsmaximumcapacity for air‐cargo tonnage. Theproposed
airportisaround30milesnorthofSAN.Itisreasonabletoexpectthatthenewairportwill
beexpectedtohandlemuchoftheunmetcargohandlingneedsofSAN.Moreover,theair‐
cargotrafficpatternsatSANandOntarioInternationalAirportoverthelastfewyearsshow
thatcargooperationissignificantlyincreasinginSouthernCalifornia.Thiscouldbearesult
of the rapid population and business growth in this region. Because SCIAwill be in the
samegeographicallocation,itwouldhavetheabilitytotransportalargeshareofSouthern
California’scargo. Table4.7showsthecargo(inmetrictons) in2012and2013forafew
majornorthernandsouthernCaliforniaairports,presentingtheaveragegrowthofaircargo
transportas0.13%.However,inafairlyrecentstudy(AirCargoTrafficinCalifornia,2014)
prepared by the Institute of Transportation Studies, the University of California Irvine
predictsthatthetotalair‐cargotrafficinCaliforniawillincreaseatanaveragerateof5.9%
duringtheupcomingyears.Assumingthat8.58%oftotalon‐airportemploymentisactually
dedicatedtocargooperation,Table4.7wasalsousedtoestimatetheaveragecargorelated
employment figure for the fiveCaliforniaairports studied.This resulted inapproximately
347employeesper100,000metrictonsofcargotransport.
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 123
AirportsCargo2013
Cargo2012
IncreasefromYear2012
CargoRelatedJobs
LosAngelesInternationalAirport 1,747,284 1,780,998 ‐1.9% 5060
OaklandInternationalAirport 484,092 481,280 0.6% 686
OntarioInternationalAirport 417,790 412,661 1.2% 659
SanFranciscoInternationalAirport 363,793 380,791 ‐4.5% 2880
SanDiegoInternationalAirport 148,541 141,233 5.2% 523Table4.7:Air‐cargostatisticsforfiveCaliforniaairportsfortheyear2012and2013
IntheUS,aroundfour‐fifthsofall‐air freight iscarriedbyall‐cargocarrierswhere
onlyaroundone‐fifthisgenerallycarriedbypassenger/cargocombinationcarriers.FedEx
andUPSare the twoall‐cargocarriers thatdominate theparcelbusiness. Inrecentyears,
these two companies have extended their hub‐and‐spoke model and established more
regionalmini‐hubs. Ontario airport is one of the newly‐establishedmini‐hubs,which has
increased Ontario’s air‐freight and air‐freight related employment, in recent years. Our
proposed airport will have two runways, similar to Ontario airport, thereby providing
comparableair‐trafficcapacity.Theproposedairportsite isnotdenselypopulated,which
decreases theprobabilityofhavinganight curfewat theproposedairport.Havingample
runway‐space and connectivity tomajor highways aremajor factors that FedEx andUPS
considerwhileestablishingamini‐hub.Byofferingthese features, theproposedairport is
poisedtoforgestrongpartnershipswithFedExandUPS,therebyensuringahugeair‐cargo
relatedoff‐airportemploymentopportunity.
EmploymentCategories
To help understand the economic effects SCIA would have on the Tri‐County
region’s employment, California’s existing airports were examined, as well as the
employment opportunities each created. The CAC created an employment survey
requesting information regarding the airport employment by job categories (operations,
customersservice,concessions,maintenancesecurity,administration,etc.),anddistributed
it to all the airportswithin their council. According to their study, they found that there
were a total of 117,273 people working at commercial airports within California. The
surveyalsoincludedquestionstohelpidentifyvariousairportfunctionsandthenumberof
employeeswithineach category,whichwasused inaneffort to further examine thenew
employmentopportunities that SCIAwould create. Table4.8 illustrates the categories of
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 124
on‐airport jobstypicalofmostairports. Thevastmajorityof themmaybecategorizedas
loworun‐skilledpositions.Itshouldbenotedthatmanyoftheseon‐premiseworkersare
notdirectemployeesofairports.Rather,theyareemployeesoftheairlines,cargocarriers,
vendors,federal,localandstatelawenforcementagenciesthatservetheairport.
AirportFunction TotalJobs %ofemployees PositionTypeCustomerservice 19,772 16.9% UnskilledOther 12,874 11.0% UnskilledGroundtransportation 12,024 10.3% UnskilledCargoOperation 10,068 8.6% UnskilledSecurity 9,854 8.4% UnskilledFixed‐baseoperations 9,121 7.8% UnskilledGroundsupport 8,986 7.7% UnskilledRetail/restaurants 8,277 7.1% UnskilledAircraftmaintenance/repair 7,816 6.7% SkilledAdministration 6,619 5.6% UnskilledTerminalpersonnel 6,452 5.5% UnskilledCatering/airlinemealpreparation 2,821 2.4% UnskilledAirtrafficcontrol 2,589 2.2% Skilled
Total 117,273 100% 15%SkilledSource:ADE,Inc.;datafromCaliforniaairportsurveydataprovidedbyEconomicImpactStudyofCaliforniaAirportspublishedMarch1,2013
Notes:Whensurveyresponsesweredeemedincomplete,themissingdatawasfiledusingaveragesfromthecompletedsurveys.Incaseswheremoredetaileddeterminationscouldnotbemade,thejobswereclassifiedasotherfunctions.
Table4.8:CaliforniaAirportSurveyFindings
TotalOn‐SiteJobsbyAirportLocation
Based on the information in Table 4.8, airport jobs relating directly to aviation
(aircraftmaintenance, ground transportation, fixed‐base operations, ground support, and
cargo operations) represent almost 41% of on‐airport employment. Airline personnel
accountsforroughly25%ofon‐sitejobs,makingtheairlinesthesecondlargestcreatorof
on‐site jobs, including catering/airline meal preparation, customer service, and terminal
personnel. Federallycommissionedpersonnel(securityandairtrafficcontrol)andother
administrative positions compile 16%, while retail and restaurants make up 7.1%. The
remaining 11% fall under the “other” category. This is where positions which proper
categorizationfromthesurveycouldnotbedeterminedwhereplaced.
WhileTable4.8providesa generaloverviewof theemployment ratios foron‐site
airport employment throughout California, a closer look at a comparable California
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 125
internationalairportwasnecessarytogetamoreaccuratelookoftheemploymentneedsat
SCIA.Figure4.6providestheemploymentdistributionforSFOemployees,accordingtoan
interviewoftenantsandairportadministratorsthatwerecollectedforthe2013Economic
ImpactStudyofSFO.
SFO was chosen as a benchmark because its current operation size and scope is
similartowhatSCIAisprojectedtobeby2040.SCIAisprojectedtohavetworunwaysand
twoterminals fullyoperational. SCIAwillbe located inacentralareabetweenSanDiego
County and Orange County. It will have the capability of and the expectation to handle
internationalflights,specificallytoandfromtheAsianPacificregion.
Figure 4.6 shows that at SFO, passenger airlines and passenger ground
transportationconstitutethe largestemploymentcategoriesaccountingfor47%and17%
3,0229%
15,78347%
2,3517%
5,70917%
5,03715%
6722%
1,0073%
Admin,Government,&Security9% PassengerAirlines47%
AviationSupportServices7% PassengerGroundTransportation17%
Concessions15% FreightTransportation2%
Construction3%
Figure4.6:NumberofEmployeesandSFODistributionofOn‐AirportJobs.
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 126
ofon‐sitejobs,respectively.Concessionsaccountfor15%,andadministrative,government,
andsecuritywillaccountfor9%.Thesearefollowedbyaviationsupportat7%.Thereare
distinct differences inwages dependinguponpositions held, particularly between skilled
and unskilled workers. To further examine the economic effects these newly created
positionswouldhaveintheTri‐Countyregion,anaveragepayscaleneedstobeestablished.
AirportRevenues,Expenses,andPayroll
To better understand the employment opportunities and wages that will be
generatedbythecreationandoperationsofSCIAin2040,therevenuegenerationmustalso
beexamined.Appendix4.6,4.7,and4.8showthe2013fiscalyearIncomeStatementsfor
SanDiegoInternationalAirport,LosAngelesInternationalAirport(LAX),andSanFrancisco
InternationalAirport.Table4.9 illustrates that revenuesgeneratedbyeachvaried froma
lowof$1.8billion(SAN) inrevenuesupto$9.5billion(LAX). Thethreeairportsshowed
similarpatterns inexpensesand thepercentageof totalexpenses related topayroll. The
densityforeachoftheairportswascalculatedbaseduponthenumberofpassengerseach
airport serves compared to the number of personnel employed, accounting for the large
range in payroll percentages. At SAN,where the density is substantially lower than the
national average, payroll only accounts for 21% of expenses. LAX, who had the second
lowest density out of the 10 examined earlier in the study, had a payroll accounting for
nearly40%.
Revenues Expense Payroll Density
SAN 1,774,978,140 1,267,963,990 71% 380,924,640 21% 3,291
SFO 7,263,000,000 3,849,000,000 53% 2,392,000,000 33% 1,338
LAX 9,467,930,000 6,650,330,000 70% 3,717,080,000 39% 1,130
Averages 6,168,636,050 3,922,431,330 64% 2,163,334,880 35% 1,791
Table4.9:2013FiscalYearRevenue,Expenses,andPayroll.
Todeterminethevalueofwagesthatwillbere‐circulatedinthelocaleconomy,two
approacheswill beused. In the first approach, the2013average revenueof threemajor
California airports is calculated, as well as the average salary expense. The payroll
percentageisthencalculatedandtheappropriateinflationratesfactoredin. Accordingto
Table4.9theaveragerevenuegenerationandrecirculation,asof2013,is$6.2billion. An
average of 35% of this, or roughly $2.2 billion, is expensed to salaries and benefits.
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 127
Assumingthatannualsalesremainedconsistentandthecostof inflationoverthenext25
yearsremainsatapproximately2.5%,acentralized internationalairport inCaliforniawill
generate annual revenues of $13 billion. Using this approach, if the payroll and benefits
weretocontinueatanaverageof35%oftotalexpenses,theaveragepayrollandbenefits
expensewillnearlydoubleto$4.3billionby2040.Therecirculationofon‐sitewageswill
haveadramaticimpactonthelocaleconomy.
Inthesecondapproach,thesamethreeairportswereexamined,takingintoaccount
theirannualsalaryexpensesaswellas their2013employmentnumbers. Thenumberof
employeesisdividedintothesalaryexpenses,tocalculatetheaveragewageperemployee,
again,factoringappropriateinflationrates.Thiscalculationprovidestheprojectedaverage
wageperemployeein2040,whichisthenmultipliedbytheprojectednumberofemployees
that was calculated in the regression analysis – thus providing the projected payroll
expense for on‐site airport employees. According to the data collected from the 2013
Annual Financial Reports, SAN has 5,381 on‐site employees, SFO has 33,580, and Los
AngelesInternationalAirport(LAX)hasaround59,000. Comparingthenumberofon‐site
personnel each airport employedwith their respective payroll and benefit expenses, the
averagewage per employee ranged from $63,000 to $71,223 depending on the location,
with a mean of $68,342. Table 4.10 provides a breakdown of the average wages per
employee.Itisimportanttonotethatthisfigureisanoverallaverageofallemployeesand
does not take into account the wide range and variations in pay based upon skill and
position.
Airport No.ofEmployees Salaries&BenefitsAverageWageperEmployee2013
SAN 5,381 $380,924,640 $70,791LAX 59,000 $3,717,098,000 $63,002SFO 33,580 $2,392,000,000 $71,233SCIA* 28950 $1,978,508,947 $68,342Table4.10:AverageOn‐SiteEmployeeWage.Continuingwiththeearlierassumptionthatinflationwillaveragea2.5%increase,
yearoveryear, for thenext27years,Table4.11 shows theanticipatedaveragewageper
employeein2040is$133,116.
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 128
UsingtheregressionanalysisandtheprojectednumberofpassengersforSCIAthat
werediscussedearlier,Table4.12showsthattheprojectednumberofairportemployeesin
2040 would be 28,950. Using this projected number of employees and factoring in the
expectedaverageyearlysalaryearnedperemployeeasseen inTable4.11, it isprojected
that in2040,SCIA’scombinedyearlywageswouldbe$3.8billion. Theresultsof the two
approachesshowedestimatedwagesofairlineemployeesfor2040tofallbetween$3.8and
$4.3billion.Therefore,fortheremainderofthissection,anestimated$4billonwillbeused
forsimplicity.
Taxes,After‐TaxIncomes,andOutwardEconomicContributionofOn‐Airport
Employees
The same approach that was used in estimating the after‐tax income for
constructionworkerswasusedtodeterminetheafter‐taxincomeforon‐siteemployeesat
SCIA.ThetotalCaliforniastateincometaxwouldberoughly12%or$15,974annually,and
the federal taxes would average 19% or $25,292 annually. Table 4.13 shows the
breakdownof thesetaxesandshowstheremainingafter‐tax incomefor theaverageSCIA
AirportAnnualWages(AverageperEmployee)2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
SAN 70,791 72,560 74,374 84,148 95,206 107,716 121,871 137,886LAX 63,002 64,577 66,191 74,889 84,730 95,864 108,462 122,715SFO 71,233 73,014 74,839 84,674 95,800 108,389 122,632 138,747SCIA* 68,342 70,050 71,802 81,237 91,912 103,990 117,655 133,116*Projectionsbasedonaveragesoftheairportwageslistedabove
Table4.11:ProjectedWageIncreaseswithAnticipatedInflationestimatedat2.5%
Airport 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040On‐airportEmployment:Approach1 18,175 18,517 18,866 20,711 22,736 24,044 26,892 30,078
On‐airportEmployment:Approach2 18,175 18,218 18,280 18,893 20,043 21,813 24,338 27,823
ProjectedOnAirportemployment* 18,175 18,367 18,573 19,802 21,389 22,929 25,615 28,950
*takenfromaverageoftwoapproachesdiscussedintheregressionanalysisTable4.12:ProjectedemploymentgrowthforSCIA(in5yearincrements).
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 129
employee,andthecombinedaftertaxincomeforallemployees,availabletobespentinthe
Tri‐CountyRegion.
Individual TotalYearlyWages %ofAnnualSalary
Avg.AnnualSalary $133,116 $3,853,708,200 ‐‐‐
CaliforniaIncomeTax $15,974 $462,444,984 12%
FederalIncomeTax $25,292 $732,204,558 19%
After‐tax‐Income $91,850 $2,659,058,658 69%
TotalTaxes 31%
*Taxcalculationsonlytakeintoaccountstateandfederaltaxesanddonotincludespecificindividual’sfilingdifferencesand/ordeductions
Table4.13:Breakdownofstateandfederaltaxesandafter‐tax‐incomeforindividualsandtotalon‐siteairportemployeesperyear.
RegionalEconomicImpact
AirTravelamongCurrentResidentsoftheTri‐CountyArea
The proposed location for SCIA in the Oceanside/Carlsbad region will allow
convenientaccessfrominterstates5and15andstateroutes78and76,connectingtheTri‐
Countyregion.Currently,theareaishometoroughly2.2millionresidentswhoareforced
to traveldistances inexcessof30miles to reachdomesticairports likeSANandOntario,
and greater distances, up to 100 miles, to reach LAX, Southern California’s only major
internationalairport.Asdiscussedinchapteroneofthisstudy,theincomefortheaverage
airport traveler is approximately $100,000 in 2013. Assuming that after tax income is
about69%ofgross,andprojectingahigherlevelduetoinflationinfutureyears,wewould
expectadditionalmultipliereffectsoftheairportastheTri‐Countyregiontravelingpublic
willbespendingmoreofitsestimated$1.5billionintraveldollarsclosertohome.
TheMultiplierEffect
ThecreationofanewinternationalairportintheTri‐Countyregionwillbringina
largenumberofpeople,bothtravelersandon‐airportemployees.Inordertosupportthese
twogroups,newbusinesseswillneedtobecreatedintheareasurroundingtheproposed
airport.ThisportionofthestudyexaminesthepotentialgrowthofemploymentintheTri‐
Countyareaoncethenewairportisfullyfunctional,anditestimatestheeventualimpactto
theregionaleconomy.
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 130
Because SCIA is projected to become the main international airport, rather than
SAN,thissectionofthestudyusedSFOagainasthecomparableairporttobenchmarkupon.
Asstatedearlierinthereport,SCIAisalsoanticipatedtohavesimilaroperationsasSFO,in
terms of scope and size. To explore SCIA’s potential economic development, the area
surroundingSFOwillbeparalleledtotheTri‐Countyregion.
UsingESRI’sarcGISBusinessAnalystOnlinetool,anoutlineoftheareasurrounding
SFOwas created to outline the region containing the neighboring, supporting businesses
(Figure 4.8). The area within the 30‐mile constraint was examined and its business
summary datawas extracted and ordered byNAICS code (Table 4.14). This included the
numbers of all major business types and their employees in San Francisco’s mature
employmentmarket.
Figure4.8:RegioncontainingbusinessessupportingSFO.
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 131
Businesses Employees
ByNAICSCode Number Percent Number Percent
Agriculture,Forestry,Fishing&Hunting 1,444 0.4% 5,236 0.2%
Mining 135 0% 1,677 0.1%
Utilities 294 0.1% 7,393 0.3%
Construction 23,210 5.9% 106,112 4.2%
Manufacturing 13,205 3.3% 255,103 10.1%
WholesaleTrade 15,134 3.8% 100,872 4%
RetailTrade 29,262 7.4% 302,017 12%
Transportation&Warehousing 6,365 1.6% 61,491 2.4%
Information 11,070 2.8% 120,662 4.8%
Finance&Insurance 17,946 4.5% 120,320 4.8%
RealEstate,Rental&Leasing 15,826 4% 70,155 2.8%
Professional,Scientific&TechServices 58,731 14.9% 329,320 13%
ManagementofCompanies&Enterprises 1,130 0.3% 4,792 0.2%
Administrative&Support&Waste
Management&RemediationServices46,440 11.8% 172,843 6.8%
EducationalServices 8,348 2.1% 142,335 5.6%
HealthCare&SocialAssistance 28,427 7.2% 224,152 8.9%
Arts,Entertainment&Recreation 6,279 1.6% 34,734 1.4%
Accommodation&FoodServices 16,287 4.1% 144,515 5.7%
OtherServices(exceptPublicAdministration) 32,453 8.2% 125,664 5%
PublicAdministration 2,718 0.7% 196,654 7.8%
UnclassifiedEstablishments 59,803 15.2% 1,078 0%
Total 394,507 99.9% 2,527,125 100%
Table4.14:TypesofsupportingbusinessesnearSFO
Table 4.14 above illustrates the various businesses that are supported by an
operationalairportbutallofthemdonotdirectlysupporttheairport’soperations.Twojob
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 132
classifications from the list seem most directly related to supporting the airport:
Transportation & Warehousing, and Accommodations & Food Services. These two
categoriesaccountfor2.4%and5.7%ofthetotaljobswithinthe30‐mileradiusofSFO.In
total,theyaccountfor206,006jobs.WithanexpectedleveloftrafficonparwithSFO,itis
reasonabletoexpectthatasmanyas206,006jobswithinthesetwosectors,manybutnot
allofwhichwillbenew,willbeneededtoserveSCIA.CurrentlyintheSCIAarea,thelocal
hotelindustry,forexample,ismadeupprimarilyofsmallmotels. Theopeningofamajor
airport will undoubtedly attract more Accommodations & Food Services and
Transportation &Warehousing businesses to the local region. Thus, it is reasonable to
expect, by conservative estimates, that the new airport will bring between 100,000 and
200,000 new offsite supporting jobs to the region. This number compares well to the
183,878newoffsitejobscreatedwhentheDenverAirportbeganoperations(TheEconomic
ImpactofDenverInternationalAirport,2013).
Aside from the number of off‐airport jobs that SCIA will create, the induced
economic impactwilldescribe theamountofcash flow fromtheemployeesback into the
localeconomy,therebyestablishingthemultipliereffect.Assumingthattheaveragesalary
for these new hospitality and transport businesses is $50,000 (in 2013 terms), and that
69%istheaftertaxincome,theadditionalmoneycirculatedinthelocaleconomybythese
newemployeescanrangefrom$3billionto$7billionadditionaldollars(Table4.15).
AverageSalary $50,000
NewJobs 100,000 200,000
TotalIncome $5,000,000,000 $10,000,000,000
PercentageofIncomeAfterTaxes 69%
AfterTaxIncome $3,450,000,000 $6,900,000,000
Table4.15:Multipliereffectintolocaleconomyfromaccommodationsandfoodservicesandtransportationandwarehousingjobs.
OpportunityLossfromAsianMarkets
WiththetravelingmarketfromChinagrowingrapidly,SanDiegofacesasignificant
opportunitylossiftheydonotdevelopanairportwithrunwayslargeenoughtohandlethe
larger international aircraft. In 2013, the non‐profit organizationVisit California invested
$4.5million in efforts to capture theChinesemarket alone.This sectionwill evaluate the
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 133
dollar amount that San Diego risks to lose due to the lack of an upgraded international
airport.
In the “China Ready” presentation provided by Visit California and the SanDiego
TourismAuthority,theweeklyairliftfromChinatoCaliforniawasoutlined(Table4.16).
Airport Airline Flights* Seats* CitiesServed
LAX AirChina 14 4,330 Beijing
American 7 1,667 Shanghai
ChinaEastern 7 2,254 Shanghai
ChinaSouthern 7 3,542 Guangzhou
United 7 1,466 Shanghai
SFO AirChina 7 2,239 Beijing
ChinaEastern 7 1,848 Shanghai
United 16 5,598 Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou
TOTAL 72 22,944
*AverageWeekly
Table4.16:AirliftfromChinatoCalifornia.
AccordingtoTable4.16,thereisaweeklyaverageof72flightsand22,944seatsto
CaliforniafromChina.Thisequatesto864flightsand275,328Chinesetravelersyearly.The
Beijing K&D Consulting Company created the Chinese Visitors to California report that
states12%of theChinese travelers toCalifornia go to SanDiego.Table4.17outlines the
potentialrevenuefromChinesetravelerstoSanDiego.
TheChineseMarket
TravelerstoCalifornia 275,328
PercentgoingtoSanDiego 12%
TravelerstoSanDiego 33,040
AverageSpendingperTraveler $2,500
TotalSpendinginSanDiego $82,600,000
Table4.17:AnnualspendingbyChinesevisitorsinSanDiego
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Chapter4:EmploymentandMultiplierEffect 134
With33,040ChinesetravelerstoSanDiegospending$2,500pervisit(ChinaReady,
2014), San Diego stands to lose $82.6million annually in economic opportunity revenue
withoutanairportthatcanhandlelargerscaleinternationalaircraft.
Conclusion
Although an exhaustive project to build a new international airport, the influx of
jobs and wages will benefit the community. The after‐tax‐income that the construction
workersalonewouldbringtotheeconomyis$692million.Once inoperation, theon‐site
employment will create around 30,000 new jobs bringing average salaries of $133,000.
After taxes, this puts another $4 billion back into the local economy each year. Also, the
airportwillcreateanimmediateimpactofover200,000jobsinsupportindustries,andup
to$7billionworthofsalariesbeingre‐circulatedintotheregion’seconomy,enablingnew
business opportunities and employment growth. There is also a substantial opportunity
fromAsian visitors,with the potential of over $82 billion being spent in the region, as a
resultofanewinternationalairport.
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 135
CHAPTER5:POLITICALCONSIDERATIONS
Introduction
A new international airport in North San Diego County will serve a great unmet
need for travel to and from the region and presents many opportunities for economic
growth.However,anundertakingofsuchmagnituderequiresthecooperationofmanykey
stakeholdergroupsthathavevestedinterests–andpotentiallygravemisgivings–tosucha
project.Thischapteridentifiesthesekeystakeholdergroupsandtheirparticularconcerns,
whichhavethepotentialtocreatemanypoliticalobstaclesthatwillneedtobeovercomeif
theprojectistoevenbegin.
The2013CSUSMMBAExploratoryAirportStudy(2013EAS) identified influential
stakeholders at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Included among them were
OceansideCityCouncil,SanDiegoCityCouncil,SanDiegoCountyRegionalAirportAuthority
(SDCRAA), Caltrans, Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Commission, Navy/Marine
Corps, and environmental groups. The next phase of this project analyzed strategies for
addressingtheconcernsofthesestakeholdergroups.
Beyond those stakeholders identified in the 2013 EAS, there are other important
stakeholders at the federal, state, county, and municipal levels that will weigh in on
decisionsaffectingtheairportproject.ExamplesincludetheGovernorofCaliforniaaswell
as the state delegation to the U.S. Congress, county and city governments. Beyond
governmental organizations, local civic organizations, industry groups, and chambers of
commerce of impacted cities in North San Diego. The 2014 EAS study expanded to
encompass the Tri‐County Region, including Southwest Riverside, and South Orange
counties. Keystakeholdergroupsfromtheseregionsneededtoidentifiedandincludedin
thisstudy.
Themajor objectives of this project were to identify the key stakeholder groups,
assesstheirmajorconcernssurroundingthebuildingofanairportattheproposedlocation,
anddevelopstrategiesandmethodologiestoaddressthoseconcerns.
Thus,theprojectproceededinthreestages:
1. Identifyingkeyinfluencegroups,
2. Interviewingappropriaterepresentativesofthosegroups.
3. Identifying existing cross‐county partnerships and recommending strategies for
buildinguponthem
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 136
ResearchQuestions
Thisstudyansweredthefollowingquestionsfromtheperspectiveofstakeholdergroups:
1. Whoarethekeypoliticalstakeholdersatfederal,state,andregionallevels?
2. WhataretheattractivefeaturesofbringingamajorinternationalairporttotheMCB
CampPendletonarea?
3. Whatarethedrawbacks?
4. Whatarethealternatives?
5. Whatpoliticalstrategiescaninfluencethekeystakeholders?
Methodology
Primarydatawascollectedfromasampleofkeystakeholderswhowillaffectandbe
affected by the proposed airport project. Using in‐depth interviews based upon the five
questions listed above, the goalwas to identify and analyze patterns of common appeals
andconcernsacrossstakeholdergroups.
Many secondary sources were used to further study the political impact an
internationalairportwouldhaveon thecommunity. Therehasbeenhigh interest in this
area for a number of years allowing the study to reap the benefits of abundant prior
research.
Combining both types of data allows for a greater breadth of information while
providingthemostin‐depthcoverageofbenefits,drawbacksandalternativestobuildingan
internationalairportintheMCBCampPendletonarea.Theanalysisprovidesthebasisfora
setofrecommendationsthatcomesattheendofthereport.
DataCollection
Themajority of the datawas gathered by interviewing key political stakeholders
and asking a set of questions designed to effectively utilize limited time restrictions,
maintain consistencyandmaximize thevalueofdata. Wheneverpossible, the interviews
wereperformed inperson;however,due to complications in the stakeholders’ calendars,
someoftheinterviewswerecompletedoverthephoneorviaemail.
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 137
DescriptionoftheSample
The interviewees consisted of a sampling of representatives from the business
community, chambers of commerce, governmental agencies, and political organizations.
The Office of Community Engagement at CSUSM has close ties with many organizations
throughout the Tri‐County region. The team consulted the Vice President of Community
Engagementto identifytheinitial listof intervieweestocontact. Therewereatotalof24
interviewsconsistingofapproximately35individuals.Someoftheindividualsinterviewed
were at the front line level,while a greater numberheld positions at the executive level.
The titles ranged from Clerk to Senior Policy Advisor to Vice Chairman. Although the
samplewasquitediverse,manyoftheopinionsexpressedweresimilarinnature.
Analysis
Detailed answers to the interviewquestions are provided inAppendix4. For the
purposesof reporting, the followingsectionsareorganizedaccording to the fiveresearch
questionslistedabove.
KeyPoliticalStakeholders
Accordingtotheinterviewees,therearemanystakeholdersinvolvedinthebuilding
ofaninternationalairport;however,withouttheapprovalofkeypoliticalstakeholders,no
suchprojectwillcometofruition. Theprimaryinterviewdatacollectedduringthisstudy
revealedapatterninperceivedkeypoliticalstakeholdersforbuildinganewinternational
airportnearMCBCampPendleton. Theprimaryinterviewdataindicatedthekeypolitical
stakeholders include: themilitary atMCBCampPendleton, SanDiegoCounty voters, and
thesurroundingcommunitiesnearthevicinityoftheproposedbuildinglocation.
Beyond thekey stakeholders identified, theprimary interviewdata also indicated
other important stakeholdersat the federal, state, county,andmunicipal levels. Included
among these were the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. Congress, the Base
RealignmentandClosure (BRAC)Commission,CaliforniaDepartmentof FishandWildlife
(CDFW),SanDiegoCountyofSupervisors,andTri‐Countyregionalbusinesses.
MilitaryatMCBCampPendleton
It is no surprise that the Marine Corps, a branch of the military at MCB Camp
Pendletonisoneofthekeystakeholdersandthebiggestpoliticalbarrierforbuildinganew
international airport at MCB Camp Pendleton. The majority of respondents from the
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 138
primaryinterviewdataidentifiedthemilitaryasakeystakeholdercitingthefactthatthey
ownandareactivelyrunningmilitarytrainingandoperationsontheland.
Accordingtothe2013EAS,thelandisownedbythefederalgovernment.Thisland
is currently under the jurisdiction of the House of Representatives Armed Forces
Committee, which has authority over the Department of Defense (DoD). The DoD holds
authority over all branches of the military, including the Marine Corps, which is an
organizationwithintheDepartmentoftheNavy.
The primary interview data revealed a pattern among respondents indicating a
unique and important feature of MCB Camp Pendleton is that it is home to the largest
military amphibious training grounds. Due to the base’s close proximity to Southern
California’s coast, this gives the Marine Corps a unique opportunity to conduct this
specialized training. In addition, there are tens of thousands of Marines at the base,
justifyingtherequiredspaceforairandgroundtraining.
Severalrespondentsfromtheprimaryinterviewdataalsoindicatedthespecialized
trainingMarinesreceiveatMCBCampPendletonisessentialtonationalsecurityandwest
coast military readiness. Although there are objections to the plan for an international
airport from ranking officers atMCB CampPendleton, theDoD policy ofmilitary airfield
states that formalproposals are consideredby theDoDandas long as theydonot cause
problems with airspace/traffic control, traffic mix, military activity, civil aircraft
equipment/aircrew qualification, facilities, security, manpower, finance, or the
environment,theinclusionoftheinternationalairportisstillaviableoption.
SanDiegoCountyVoters
Respondentsfromtheprimaryinterviewdataalsoindicatedthepublic,specifically
SanDiegoCountyvoters,askeystakeholders intheproposedbuildingofan international
airportatMCBCampPendleton. Allpoliticsaredrivenby thevoters;politiciansdowhat
thevoterssay.Voterswanttoknowtheyhaveavoiceandplayaroleindecidingthefuture
of their communities. Politicians need to conduct interviews, gather data, analyze the
information,anddeterminewhat thevoterconsensus is regarding thecommunity,and in
thiscase,thedevelopmentofaninternationalairportatMCBCampPendletonwouldlikely
gotoballotforapproval.
Accordingto theMCBCampPendletonwebsite,morethan77,000retiredmilitary
personnel reside within a 50‐mile radius of MCB Camp Pendleton and enjoy all the
privileges toBase recreation facilities, commissary, exchange, andmedical services. This
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 139
amount of retiredmilitary personnelwouldhave a significant impact on voter views. In
ordertogainsupportfromthevoters,developersandplannerswouldhavetogivevoters
compellingreasonswhytheinclusionofaninternationalairportwouldbebeneficialanda
plan tonot interferewith theircurrentprivileges. If there isnosupport fromvoters, the
CityCouncilwillbelesslikelytosupporttheproject.
CommunitynearMCBCampPendleton
Furthermore, respondents from the primary interview data indicated the
surrounding community residents nearMCB Camp Pendleton as key stakeholders. MCB
CampPendletonislocatedinaratherruralareawherethereisonlyonepopulatedareato
its south; however, respondents indicated the proposal of building a new international
airportcouldraiseconcernofnoisepollutionandincreasedtrafficwithinthecommunity.
The inclusion of an international airport would mean more commuter and
pedestriantrafficinthearea,causinglongerdelaysintrafficandadmissiontotheBaseand
proposedairport. OneparticularareaofconcernisthenewNavalHospital,whichisright
along the border of the 65 CNEL level. In order to truly evaluate, itwill require further
studyandanalysis todeterminetheconsequencesofnoisepollutiononthehospital. The
increased automobile traffic and flights will greatly add to the amount of air pollution‐
drastically causingadecline inairqualityand increase innoisepollution. These reasons
maygive communitiesandvoters reasons tooppose thedevelopmentof an international
airport.
OtherStakeholders
Expansionordevelopmentof an airport is a long intricateprocess and involves a
vast numberof stakeholders. Itwouldbenegligent to focusonlyon themilitary atMCB
CampPendleton,SanDiegovoters,andthesurroundingcommunitytomakeanydecisions.
Respondents from the primary interview data stated various agencies and organizations
haveastakeorplayaroleintheproposalanddevelopmentofaninternationalairport.
OnesuchagencyistheFederalAviationAdministration(FAA).WhiletheFAAdoes
not decide if a community should build a new international airport, it does ensure the
proposalmeets the required regulations. After approval, the FAAwouldmanage the air
trafficinthejoint‐useairfield.ArepresentativefromtheFAAstatedthefollowing:
TheFAA isnot thecorrectentity todecidehowacommunity (orregion)can
bestmeetitsaviationdemands.Airportplanningisalocaldecision. Shoulda
localgovernmentalorganizationproposeanewairporttoFAA,ourrolewould
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 140
to ensure that theproposalmeetsall required federal standardsandalso to
independentlyevaluatetheproposalundertheNEPA.
InadditiontotheFAAmanagingtheairtrafficandensuringalltherequiredfederal
standards are met, the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Commission ensures
compliancewith environmental laws, rules, and regulations. With the amount ofmoney
andplanningandgainingsupportfortheinternationalairport,supportersandstakeholders
wouldnotwanttohavewhathappenedatMCASElToroin1999tohappenatMCBCamp
Pendleton.ActivitiesatMCASElToroledtowasteoils,paintresidues,hydraulicfluid,used
batteries, and other wastes to become so abundant that it caused soil and groundwater
contaminationandultimatelytheoperationalclosureofthebase.MCBCampPendletonis
anessentialhubwherevariousfederaldepartmentsandorganizationsgathertoreceivetop
trainingandcannotaffordtoendupontheBRACCommission’slistofclosures.
In keeping with environmental regulations, the CDFW, EPA, and various
conservationagenciesoverseeproposedprojectstoensurethenaturalwildlifeandplants
arepreserved. A simple concernsuchasendangeredshrimp isenough to stopaproject.
Additionally, theCalifornia coast has a large amountof protected coastal land and this is
especiallytrueoftheareaclosetotheproposedlocationoftheinternationalairport.
Politicianswishingtoremaininofficeandretainthesupportofvotersarealsolikely
tobeconcernedwith thewell‐beingof thewildlifeandprotectedcoastalareas. Menand
womenoftheU.S.CongressandtheSanDiegoCountyofSupervisorsneedtoworktogether
to develop plans that would accommodate and alleviate the fears of those on base and
nearby. Regardlessoftheplanthatisdevelopedandfollowed,eachdepartment,office,or
regionwillhavevaryinglevelsofinvolvementandimpactfromtheairport.
When considering a large scaleproject like an international airport atMCBCamp
Pendleton,severalrespondents indicatedtheTri‐Countyregionbusinessesmustalsobea
topicofconcern.Anyprojectthatnegativelyimpactslocalandregionalbusinessesshould
notbeimplemented.Theincreaseinthenumberoftravelersandcommutersarepotential
foranincreaseinbusiness,revvingupthelocalcommunity.Conversely,iftheinclusionof
an airport at MCB Camp Pendleton negatively impacts the business operations at other
airportsintheregion,furtherevaluationoftheprojectshouldbeconsidered.
In a proposed project such as the international airport at MCB Camp Pendleton,
thereareseveralstakeholderstotakeintoaccount.Eachgroupofstakeholdershasreasons
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 141
toeithersupportoropposetheproject. Thewaysofconvincingorretainingsupportvary
when interacting and communicating with each of these groups. Based on information
gatheredfromprimaryinterviews,respondentssuggestedthatMCBCampPendletonisnot
an ideal location for the international airport, but provided political strategies that may
convincestakeholdersthattheairportisbeneficialforallthoseinvolved.
Benefits
Therearemanybenefitssurroundingtheproposedlocationforanewinternational
airportthatwillsupportSouthernCalifornia.Thirty‐fiverespondentssharedtheirthoughts
ontheviabilityofthesuccessofthislocation.Thisreporthighlightsthetopicsthattended
tocomeupthroughoutthemajorityoftheinterviews.
AccessibilityandLocation
Morethan87percentof therespondentsbelievedtheaccessibilityand locationof
MCBCampPendletonwouldaddtotheallureoftheairport.TheMCBCampPendletonarea
isapproximatelymidwaybetweenLosAngelesAirport(LAX)andSanDiegoInternational
Airport(LindberghField).ThisallowseasieraccessforNorthSanDiego,SouthOrange,and
SouthwestRiversidecounties.
Theplan to expand theNorthCoast Corridorwill add to the attractivenessof the
locationaswell. According toNichols (2014), theproposedNorthCoastCorridorproject
still faces hurdles, but the freeway and Coaster expansion will provide hope for many
frustratedcommuters. Approximately68percentoftherespondentscommentedthatthe
newairportwouldmeanthatfewerpeoplewouldhavetocommutetoLAXorSanFrancisco
InternationalAirport(SFO)inordertoflyinternationally.Thereducedcommutetimefrom
allalternativeswasaclearbonusformanyrespondentsaswell.
Becausethis locationisabitmoreremotefromresidentialareasthansomeofthe
other locations previously considered, some respondents indicated that there would be
fewerconcernssurroundingnoiseandpollution.Itwasmentionedmorethanoncebythe
individualsinterviewedthatfurtherstudieswouldbeneededtotrulyascertaintheimpact
onthecommunity.
CommunityDevelopment
Morethan80percentoftherespondentsindicatedthatthislocationwouldbenefit
thelocalcommunityinnumerousways.Someofthebenefitswereviewedastheabilityto
attractlargebusinesses,tourists,andothermeansofeconomicgrowthaswell.Thethought
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 142
was that larger businesseswould be attracted to the area if therewas amore accessible
airport for shipping and executive travel purposes. Tourismwould grow if there was a
moreaccessibleairportaswell.Thiswouldaidingrowthinamultitudeofareas.Because
internationaltravelerstendtostayintheareaforlongerperiodsoftime,thiswouldalsobe
a benefit for the lodging, restaurant, and entertainment businesses in the surrounding
areas.
BenefitsRelatedtotheMilitary
According to theFederalAviationAdministration (FAA)website (2014), thereare
currently23 jointcivilian/military(joint‐use)airports in theUnitedStates: 12AirForce,
tenArmy,andoneNavybase. Eachof theseairportsareallairbasesrather thanMarine
Corps training bases. Respondents believe that the new airport would provide
opportunitiesandchallengesforthemilitary.Onebenefitoftheproposedlocationbeingon
militarylandisthattheairportwouldtakeuplessthanfive‐percentofthetotalacreageof
MCBCampPendleton.Themilitarybaseislocatedonapproximately125,000acresandthe
proposedairportwouldneed less than fiveorsix thousandacres. Anotherbenefit to the
militaryisthatanaccessgatecouldbebuiltsothattheycouldflytheirpersonnelandcargo
inandoutofthebasewhenneeded.MostofthemarecurrentlyflyingoutofLAXandthatis
viewed by some of the respondents as a bit unkind to our military men and women.
Departing from an international airport located closer to or on base could provide
additionalsecurityformilitarypersonnel.Additionally,about40,000Marinepersonneland
theirapproximate90,000familymemberscouldflyforpersonaltravelwiththisairport.
AirTrafficCapacity
Oneofthemostimportantbenefitstorelayisthefactthatthisairportwillfulfillan
important need. The region is expected to reach capacity in the near future for
international flights and the alternatives are not encouraging. If this airportwere to be
completed before capacity is reached, it would be of great service to all of Southern
California.
Drawbacks
Therespondentsidentifiedmoredrawbacksthanbenefitsofthenewairport.That
is not to say that the cons outweigh thepros; rather that the objectionswerenumerous.
Thismaybesimilartotheeventsin2006whenMarineCorpsAirStation(MCAS)Miramar
wasconsideredasaviableoption. MostoftherespondentsandthesubjectsoftheUnion
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 143
Tribune article (Ristine, 2006) are from SanDiego County. Very fewof them responded
positively,althoughtheyclearlydidknowagreatdealaboutthebenefits.Someofthemore
prevalentexamplesarenotedinthePoliticalWillsectionthatfollows.
ManyoftheintervieweesinOrangeandRiversidecountieswerefarmorelikelyto
focus on the benefits of the new airport; however, they seemed to understand the
drawbacksaswell. Thereasonbecomesclearastheinterviewsareexamined. SanDiego
County’seconomydependsagreatdealon itsmilitary installationsandpersonnel. Many
say the economy here is one part tourism, one part commerce, and one part military.
Therefore,theveryideaofmovingoreliminatinginstallationshereseemspatentlyabsurd
tomany,evenifthatisnotwhatisintended.
In identifying the following drawbacks, patterns emerged as to categories of
responses, though a fewoverlap in places. The following is a rough grouping, beginning
withthemostrecurringobjections.
MilitaryObjections
A large number of responses against the proposal have to do with military
preparedness. MCBCampPendletonisthelargestamphibiousmilitarytrainingsiteinthe
U.S.Themilitaryviewpointisthattheonlywayaninternationalairportcouldbelocatedon
thebaseisifthetrainingstops.Ifthetrainingishalted,thebasewillneedtobeclosedor
relocated.Therefore,themilitarywillcontinuethefighttoabstainfromthedevelopmentof
aninternationalairportongovernmentland.
Respondents believe hundreds, maybe thousands, of military jobs would be
eliminated ormoved out of San Diego County if any part of MCB Camp Pendletonwere
converted to a commercial international airport. They believe that such resultwould be
devastating to military families and to the economy as a whole. To illustrate, a similar
situation occurred in SacramentowhenGovernor Schwarzenegger ordered a furlough on
stateworkersin2009and2010.Thousandsoffamiliesmissedoutonbillionsofdollarsof
take‐home pay, most often undergoing a 15 percent per month salary decrease for 18
months.ThiswasparticularlydevastatingtoSacramentoduringtheeconomicdownturn.A
large number of businesses—especially low‐margin businesses like the restaurants that
depend on state worker customers—were forced into bankruptcy as a result. Many
governmentprogramswereclosedasaresultofthisdownwardspiralandthesubsequent
lossoftaxrevenue. AsaCaltransemployee,oneoftherespondentsexperiencedthisfirst
hand,explaininghowterriblydifficultatimethatwasforthewholefamily.Shenervously
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 144
joked that shewas consideringmoving to Sacramento’s infamous ‘Tent City’ at the time.
San Diego County is mired in an economic downturn, and residents—especially military
familiesand thepoliticians thatprotect them—fearexactly thatkindofscenario;perhaps
rightly so. Most of the jobs thatwould be created as a result of the proposal would be
temporary. A significant portion of the permanent jobs created would be service jobs,
whichtendtopaymuchlowerthanaverage. Theoverallemploymentcreated,opponents
say,wouldnotbalanceouttheresultinglossofmilitaryjobs.
EconomicConcerns
Aside from theabovementionedmilitary concerns, thenextmostoftendiscussed
was the cost of building an airport of that magnitude, especially given the specific site
chosenbypreviousstudies.Buildinganairportisanexpensiveundertakingtosaytheleast.
Thesiteonwhichthisproposalisbasedissurroundedbymountainswhichwouldhaveto
beleveledatgreatexpense.Theotherquestionseemstobewhetherthenewairportwould
truly increase traffic and income to and from the region, or whether it would just
cannibalize traffic and income from other airports offering no net economic gain for
SouthernCalifornia.
Anotherconcernwasthatitmightbedifficulttoattractforeignvisitorstoanairport
onamilitarybase so close to a failednuclearpowerplant. Theconcern then iswhether
airportadministrationwouldbeabletopositiontheairportasitwouldlike,toprojectthe
image it has in mind. From there, the consideration is whether it would bring enough
revenuetojustifyitshighpricetag.
ResidentOpposition
Themainconcernsforlocalresidentsaretwofold;theyworryaboutnoisepollution
andtraffic.Thesearetheusualsourcesofoppositiontoairportproposals.Nobodywants
airplanestoflyovertheirhomes.OneoftherespondentsfamiliarwithOrangeCountyand
JohnWayneAirport(JohnWayne)notesthatnoiseisthemainreasonmoreplanesdonot
flyoutoftheselocations‐thesamecouldbesaidforLindberghField.JohnWayneisvery
limitedinthatregard,hesaid,andthatproposalstoexpandaremetwithfierceopposition
every time, so nothing gets done. It goes without saying that traffic near a major
international airport can be a nightmare; solutionswould have to be provided. Even so,
residentswouldfighttothebitterendtokeepanairportoutoftheirownbackyard.
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 145
EnvironmentalImpact
There are several endangered plant and animal species onMCB Camp Pendleton
thatwouldneedtobeevaluated,andmanyenvironmentalgroupswouldcomeouttofight
against theirdestruction. Aside fromvariousenvironmental groups, thereare alsomany
levels of government guidelineswhen it comes to the environment and its ecology. The
EnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA)canhaltanyconstructionthatwouldinterferewith
lifeon theendangeredspecies list. Thereareothergroupsandagenciesat the stateand
countylevelsaswellthatoverseeprojectstoprotectendangeredplantsandwildlife.
Anothersignificantconcernmentionedisthatofpollution.Airplanespollutetheair,
the landandthewaterwherevertheyfly; there isnogettingaroundthat. Environmental
groups would have to be convinced that greening would be undertaken to level the net
effect of such pollution. It is also possible that environmental groups might never be
convinced, in which case enough stakeholders would have to be won over from other
stakeholdergroupssoastogoaheadwithouttheirblessing.
AirportSite
Whilesomesawthesecuritybenefitsofco‐locatingacivilianairportonamilitary
base,someoftherespondentsquestionedwhetheritisevenpossibleforacivilianairport
to co‐exist with a military presence as close as would be required in this situation. As
previouslynoted,ithasbeendone.Infact,theFAAhasaJointUsePolicyaswellasalistof
airports that function in such amanner as previously reported in this study. Itmay be
especiallycomplicatedtohaveseparatemilitary‐andcivilian‐operatedcontroltowers,but
itcanbedone.
Thereisalsoaquestionofspace.Someoftherespondentsthinkthereisnotenough
spaceforasecondrunwayasrequiredintheproposal,notingthatthetworunwayswould
havetobesituatedthreequartersofamileapart.
SeveralrespondentsbelievethatthesiteistoofarformostSanDiegoresidentsto
driveto,especiallythosethatlivedowntownorfurthersouth.That,ofcourse,seemstobe
thecasewitheverylocationthathasbeenstudiedovertheyears.Ontheotherhand,some
ofthealternativesthathavebeenproposedareasfareastasthedesertsofImperialCounty
andasfarsouthasTijuana.Theformerwouldbeevenfurther,andthelatterhasalengthy
bordercrossinginbetween.AsinthecaseoftheproposedMCBCampPendletonlocation,
therearemanycompetingviewsoneachoftheseissues.
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 146
CivilianSafety
Oneofthebiggestconcernscitedwasthatofciviliansafetybecausethenewairport
will be located so close to artillery ranges. Conversely, civilian safety concerns might
compromisethemilitarymission.Thus,therealchallengeiswhetherthemilitarywouldbe
abletoassureciviliansafetywhilemaintainingitstrainingprograms.Itwasalsostatedthat
theliabilitywouldbetoogreatforthemilitarytoassumeorevenconsider.
Topographywasalsodiscussedasasafetyissue. Theconcernisthatpilotswould
finditdifficulttolandattheproposedsitegiventhesurroundingmountains.Thiswouldbe
ofparticularconcernforlargeraircraftflyinginternationalroutes.Ofcoursepilotslanding
atmanyairportsaroundtheworldfaceadifficultlandingseveralhundredtimesadaywith
no problems. Itwas alsomentioned that one of the benefits of shifting long‐haul flights
awayfromLindberghFieldisthatitavoidstheissueofthedifficultlandingthere.
Anothersafetyconcernistheproposedairportlocationbeingjust22milesfromSan
Onofre’s failednuclearpower station. If anythinghappens to thenuclearwaste thatwill
continue to be stored there indefinitely, the airportmight have to be abandoned. Then
again,somightmostofSouthernCalifornia.
PoliticalWill
The fight overwhere to build a newer and bigger airport in San Diego has been
ragingformanyyearsnow.Ithasalreadylastedmuchlongerthanconstructionanywhere
wouldhaveever taken. That trend is likely tocontinue into the foreseeable future. The
military—visiblythelargeststakeholderofall—hasmadeitverycleartheywillnevergive
upwhat theyseeas thegood fight. In that light, forSanDiegopoliticians tosupportany
proposalthatinterfereswithmilitaryoperationsisanon‐starter.
Per the Union Tribune article (Ristine, 2006) cited earlier, many residents were
quicktooffertheirpointofview.AsJohnChalkeroftheCoalitiontoPreservetheEconomy
putit,“Dealingwithairportsitingissuesisano‐winpropositionforanyelectedofficial.You
aren’t going tomake friends doing it either way.” Former U.S. Representative and later
Mayor of SanDiegoBobFilner said, “Youdon’t tell ourMarines, youdon’t tell our brave
soldiers that we’re taking your base. Readiness, training, preparation, support for our
troops revolves around keeping Miramar as a Marine air station.” U.S. Representative
DuncanHuntersaid,“NowisthetimefortheAirportAuthoritytobecomecreative,toquit
havingasetofblindersonthatalwayspointstowardMiramarandtocomeupwithsome
betteroptions.” U.S.RepresentativeSusanDavisstated,“IthinkSanDieganswantclosure
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 147
onthisissue. I thinkthey’dliketoseeLindberghimproved.” Althoughthereweremany
morequotesintheabovecitedarticlethepointhasbeenmadethatthepublicopinionwas
not in favor of an international airport based on MCAS Miramar. The findings are
resoundinglysimilartodayforanairportlocatedatMCBCampPendleton.
AlternativestoMCBCampPendleton
Many of the individuals interviewed suggested that locations other than Camp
Pendletonbeconsideredforlocatingthenewairport,includingthoseexploredinthe2013
EAS, which recommended the MCB Camp Pendleton location as the best site for a new
airporttoalleviatecapacityconstraints. Thetri‐countyareaidentifiedin lastyear’sstudy
certainlywould benefit froman airport located at the nexus ofRiverside, SanDiego, and
Orange counties. Others, including many of the stakeholder groups represented by
respondents,havedifferentideasbeyondthespecificlocationontheMCBCampPendleton
site‐severalofwhicharenearby.Thissectionpresentssomeofthesuggestedalternatives
including: expanding Lindbergh Field, expanding small municipal airports, considering
other military bases in the region, andmoving beyond tri‐county to Imperial County or
moving south of the border. While the EAS 2013 showed that neither of the other sites
wouldbefeasible,thesuggestionsofferedbytheintervieweesareprovidedinthefollowing
sectionsto illustratesomeof theargumentsthatmaybeusedtoopposetheplans for the
CampPendletonsite.
SanDiegoInternationalAirport(LindberghField)
SDCRAAandothervariousgroupshavestatedfurtherexpansionofLindberghField
maybemore feasible and realistic. TheSDCRAAhas stated that theyhavea commercial
passengeroptimizationplan.Theplanisbrokendownintofourmainparts:
1. Fully build out the intermodal transit center (ITC) and North Side Terminal at
LindberghField;
2. PreserveLindberghFieldforcommercialpassengerservice;
3. Up‐gaugeLindberghFieldaircraftfleetmix‐narrowbodyfleet;and
4. Up‐gaugeLindberghFieldaircraftfleetmix‐increasedwidebodyfleet.
WhenitcomestomaximizingtheuseofLindberghField,thereisacurrentplanto
expandtheITC.Thisplanwillaccommodate1.2to1.8millionpassengersandwillfacilitate
the building ofmorepassenger processing facilities such as ticketing, baggage claim, and
security screening stations. There are also large facility improvements planned such as
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 148
property acquisitions, expansion of automobile parking facilities, expansion of the
consolidatedrentalcarfacilityandmodificationstotheI‐5ramp.Theprojectedcostofthis
project is somewhere between 1.2 and 1.4 billion dollars; however, this project can be
fundedfromvarioussourcessuchasbonds,privatesources,passengerfacilitychargesand
rentalcarcustomerfacilitycharges.Fundingofthenon‐aviationelementsisunlikelygiven
thecostsandminimaleffectsonairfieldcapacity.
For up‐gauging the narrow body fleet, the airport authority would begin to
encourageair carriers to reduce theuseof regional jetsor smalleraircraft at theairport.
The focuswouldshift tomorenarrowbodytypeaircraftwithanaverageseatcapacityof
140 seats. In order to increase wide body fleets, the airport authority would need to
encourage air carriers to deploy large capacity aircrafts at Lindbergh Field. This would
assumethe future fleetmixwillbecomprisedof737,757,and767aircraftswithat least
halfoftheplanesconsistingof737planeswithanaverageseatingcapacityof180seats.
McClellan‐PalomarAirport(Palomar)
Chambers of commerce members, mayors, and other political stakeholders have
mentioned McClellan‐Palomar Airport (Palomar) and Brown Field Municipal Airport
(Brown Field). These airports are primarily known for private and commercial travel.
Somesaytheseandothermunicipalairportsintheareaareunderutilized,thusexpanding
onthemunicipalairportsmaybeanoption.
Another suggestionwas to optimize the use of Palomarbyproviding facilities for
multi‐carrier passenger service. This alternativewould be implemented through leasing
and pricing strategies. The goal would be to make Palomar appear more attractive for
commercial air service than Lindbergh Field. For this project to become a reality there
wouldfirstneedtobea1,000footrunwayextensionforatotallengthof6,000feet,which
would require a bridge foundation due to the airfield being located on an old landfill
location.Therewouldalsobeaneedforan8,000squarefootpassengerterminalexpansion
to enable the total square footage to reach 27,000. The other part of the plan includes
buildinga2,800spaceautomobileparkingdeck toenable theground levelvehicles tobe
stationedclosebyforpassengers. TheproposedplansatPalomarmaysoundfeasiblebut
furtherstudieshaveshownthatmainlinejetscouldnotusethefacilityduetoirresolvable
FAA runway‐taxiway separation criteria. This constraint would ultimately harm future
development because the fleet would remain restricted to regional jets. More extensive
environmentalreviewandapprovalswouldalsoberequiredforrunwayexpansion.
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 149
BrownFieldMunicipalAirport(BrownField)
BrownFieldwas alsomentioned as a site to enlarge rather than entertaining the
costofbuildinganewairport.SimilartoPalomar,BrownFieldwouldrequiremulti‐carrier
passengerservice. Thisscenariowouldrequireanewpassengerterminalbuilding,access
andentranceroadwayimprovements,approximately2,800automobileparkingspaces,and
facilities for certification to include items like security fencing and firefighting facilities.
Therewouldalsobe theneed forvariousutilityupgrades tobecompleted. Furthermore,
theairfieldwouldnotrestrictthetypeofaircraftoperatingatthefacility,butservicewould
mostlikelybeprovidedbyregionaljets.
MCASMiramar,MarchARB,andOffshoreAirport
Both active duty and retiredmilitary leaders have suggested taking another hard
lookatMCASMiramar,MarchAirReserveBase(MarchARB),andthepossibilityofbuilding
anoffshoreairport.
In the 2013 EAS, MCAS Miramar was considered as a potential site for a new
internationalairport. Thestudymentionedthatin2006,SanDiegoCountyPropositionA,
proposed obtaining 3,000 acres of land atMCASMiramar to build a commercial airport.
Thepropositionvoteresultedin62percentopposedto38percentinfavor.MarchARBis
currentlyunderthecommandoftheU.S.AirForceandfacilitatesmilitaryandciviliantravel
on a daily basis. The Base Reuse Plan designates approximately 350 acres of land for
civilianaviationfacilitiesatthesouthernendoftheairfield.Anadditional200acreswestof
the I‐215 is intended to beused for commercial aviation throughamilitary/civilian joint
usearrangement.TheEnvironmentalImpactStatement(EIS)evaluatedtheenvironmental
elementsofthereuseplanandalternativesinaccordancewiththeNationalEnvironmental
PolicyAct(NEPA).
The thought of constructing an offshore airport is not a new idea. In 2009, a
companyby thenameofOceanWorkscreatedaplan todevelopanoffshore international
airport. The 2,000 acre, $20 billion OceanWorks international airportwould resemble a
floatingoilrigwithhotels,restaurantsandshopsnestledunderneaththeactualairport.An
onboarddesalinizationplantwouldsupplytheairport’sneedsandsupplywatertocoastal
cities,whileagiantartificialreefwouldprotectthesurroundingwildlife.Theairportwould
also act as a center of green power, harvesting energy from waves, wind, and ocean
currents.
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 150
GeneralAbelardoL.RodriguezInternationalAirport(RodriguezInternational)
Manyother stakeholders have stated that utilizingGeneralAbelardoL. Rodriguez
InternationalAirport(RodriguezInternational)inTijuanawouldbeanotheralternativeto
buildingan internationalairport inNorthSanDiegoCounty. ThroughutilizingRodriguez
International, there is the potential for cross border airport terminals, cross border
facilities, a stronger emphasis on border crossings and a possible joint use through twin
ports.ThiswouldimplyutilizingU.S.terminalswiththeuseofMexicanrunways.
The next alternative suggested was expanding and further utilizing Rodriguez
International. TherearemanyprojectionsthatstateRodriguezInternationalwillincrease
from approximately 2.5 to 7.0 million annual passengers in response to the increasing
demands. Thefirststep inthisproject istofacilitatebordercrossings. Therewouldbea
need to improve the already existing Otay Mesa and San Ysidro international border
crossings. A similar projectwasproposed in 2010 by SanDiegoChamber of Commerce;
however,thatstudywastoincreaseaccesstimesandbordercrossingbutnottopromotea
newbordercrossing.Keyfactorswouldinclude:decreasingbordercrossingtimesbyabout
40 percent from 45 minutes to approximately 25 minutes, increasing shuttle and bus
service to Tijuana from Greater Los Angeles Metropolitan and San Diego locations,
increasing air service to Mexican/International markets, and limiting increases in air
serviceinU.S.markets.
The next step would consist of facility improvements at Rodriguez International
includinganupgradedterminalandconcourses,possiblyincludingitemssuchasimproved
andrefurbishedconcessions,holdrooms,andticketcounters.Anothernecessaryaddition
involved the addition of a new airport bus terminal in order to accommodate additional
passengers originating from theU.S. shuttle bus activity. The projected total cost of this
alternative is approximately 30 million dollars with potential funding from a variety of
sourcesincludingairlinefees,U.S.CustomsandBorderProtection,andprivatedevelopers.
A second utilization of Rodriguez International is the aviation passenger cross
border facility (CBF). This projectwould increase the use of Rodriguez International for
commercialpassengeractivitywiththeCBFallowingaU.S.ticketedpassengerexclusiveand
convenientaccess into theairport. TheCBFwouldoperatesimilarly toanewpedestrian
port of entry andwould include vehicle parking, customs/border control, and a landside
connectionorbridgeintotheairport. Ticketing,securityscreening,andbaggagehandling
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 151
would remainon theMexicanside in theexisting terminalbuilding. Auser fee to access
CBFwouldbeappliedtoallusers.
TherehasalsobeentalkofaCrossBorderAirportTerminal.Thiswouldbelocated
ontheU.S.sideofthebordertofacilitateprocessingofU.S.passengersutilizingRodriguez
International;however, it isassumedthat thisapproachwillonlymarginallyalleviate the
mid‐termcapacityconstraintforabouttwoyears.
ExpansionofCentralizedTravel
VariousorganizationsandbusinessownershavesuggestedImperialCountyandthe
expansionofthecentralizedexistingairportsbymeansofhighspeedrailandcoastertravel.
Therehavealreadybeen talksof expanding the I‐5, soonce theairport site is confirmed,
different types of transportation from the various counties will becomemore important
frombothanenvironmentalandtrafficstandpoint.
TheCaliforniaHighSpeedRail(HSR)willcreatetransportationtoandfromvarious
citieswithinSanDiegoCounty.Undercurrentplans,thesouthernendoftheHSRcorridor
will terminate in SanDiego County at the downtown Santa FeDepot or Lindbergh Field.
The HSR will begin closer to the Los Angeles Union Station and Ontario International
Airport.TheHSRcanbeusedasanalternativeorreplacementforintra‐Californiaairtravel
ortoaccessanairportwithinCalifornia.
Therearealso talks inplace toexpand theuseof theCOASTER thatgoes through
SanDiego. TheCOASTER commuter train travels breathtaking coastal scenery as it runs
northandsouththroughSanDiegoCounty,servingeightstationsbetweenOceansideand
downtownSanDiego.Morethan20trainsrunonweekdays,withadditionalserviceonthe
weekends.IttakesaboutanhourtotraveltheentireCOASTERroute.
PoliticalStrategies
Based on the primary interview data collected, as well as the secondary sources
cited, supporters of an international airport atMCBCampPendletonunderstand there is
heavy opposition to the proposal; however, respondents did suggest various political
strategiestowinoverenoughsupportfortheprojectorasimilaralternative. Suggestions
beyondsimplychoosinganotherlocationmustincludepromotingthebenefitstopersuade
voters, and working collaboratively with regional agencies, organizations, and interest
groups.
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 152
Nomajorprojectorpublicpolicyinitiativecanbesuccessfullyimplementedwithout
strongsupport fromthepublicandstakeholdergroups. It is imperative toreceivepublic
supportandstakeholderbuy‐in.Achievingthisrequiresclearcommunicationsfocusingon
thebenefits,andmitigatingconcernsoftheproject.Creatingasocialmediacampaignisone
of the quickestways to relay information to voters, especiallywith the advancements in
technology.Thisisparticularlyimportanttothetech‐savvymillennialvoterswhostandto
gainthemostfromanairportslatedtoopenin2040,whentheyaremostlikelytouseit.It
isalsoimportanttorealizethatopponentsoftheprojectwillbelikelytoavailthemselvesof
the same technology. So public debate surrounding amid‐twenty‐first century airport is
likelytotakeplaceintheblogosphere.
A way to find out what is important to voters is to talk with members of the
communities. Supporters must present the project, engage community members in a
discussion,andfindoutthemajorconcerns.Themostcommonconcernswouldmostlikely
becenteredonnoisepollution,airquality,traffic,andgeneralsafety.Oncetheinformation
is analyzed,plannersanddevelopers canworkonways to alleviate those concerns. This
strategywouldneedtobeimplementedmorethanoncetopresentthecaseafteralterations
andattemptstoappeasecommunitymembershavebeendevelopedandincluded.
Severalrespondentsindicatedworkingwithregionalagenciestogainsupportofthe
project. While building support for joint‐use policy seems like an ideal strategy, the
majorityofrespondentsindicatedconcernforciviliansafetywithactivemilitaryoperations.
Inaddition,itisunlikelytheFAAwillgrantapprovalifciviliansafetyisatrisk;however,an
alternative strategy is to build enough regional agency support to petition the BRAC
CommissiontorelocateMCBCampPendleton.
Ifthesestrategiesareunsuccessful,anotheroptionistolookatalternativelocations
orexpandexistingfacilities.Onerespondentrecommendedlookingoffshoreorexpanding
Lindbergh Field. One of the respondents that is currently serving the public from the
primaryinterviewdata,hadaveryclearopiniononthetopicinwhichhestated“Supporting
an international airport at CampPendleton is political suicide.” One of the commanding
officers forMCBCampPendleton,who isalsoopposed to theproject, cited theexpansion
wouldneedasignificantamountofland,causingmoreencroachmentonthetrainingspace.
High ranking officials have strong opinions that are not easily swayed. In that case,
alternative suggestions must be considered. Another respondent suggested to “build it
offshore where there [are not] constant military exercises that could cause injury to
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 153
civilians.”Basedonresponsesfromtheinterviewsconducted,thegeneralconsensuscanbe
summarized by a quote from the one of the respondents “You have a better chance at
gettingChargersthananairportatCampPendleton.”
OpportunitiesforCollaboration
Expanding the conversation beyond the borders of San Diego County offers new
opportunities for cross‐county collaboration. The2013EAS selected the CampPendleton
site as themost viable option from among all those considered for the location of a new
international airport within San Diego County. The 2014 study, building upon this
recommendation, realized thatSanDiegoCountywouldnotbe theonlyCounty tobenefit
fromlocatinganairportonthissite.Italsowillbenefitfastgrowingregionsofneighboring
OrangeandRiversideCountiesthat.Akeytomakingthenewairportarealityistoestablish
positivecollaborativeeffortsamongthecountiesaffected,
Fortunately,thereisalreadyarichhistoryofcollaborationamongSanDiego,Orange
and Riverside Counties. By leveraging theses current relationships and partnerships, a
collaborativemodelcouldbeestablishedtoformulateawinningstrategytobuildthismulti‐
countyresource.Thefollowingselectionshighlightsomeoftheexistingcross‐countyefforts
among Riverside, San Diego, and Orange Counties. Each of them exists to address some
concerns thatmay be germane to the discussion of the building of the proposed airport.
Eachshouldbeincludedinanycrosscountydiscussionsconcerningtheproject.
SANDAG
In 2001 the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) recognized the
importanceofregionalcollaborationandcreatedaBordersCommitteetoserveasapolicy
advisoryentity.ThisinterregionalareaincludesOrange,Riverside,ImperialandSanDiego
Counties,. It also recognizes the importance of San Diego’s border with Mexico. The
Borders Committee is responsible for advising SANDAG’s Board of Directors on
interregionalplanning,encouragingcommunicationanddialoguebetweenthe localareas.
(SANDAG,2014A)Additionally,theSouthernCaliforniaAssociationofGovernments(SCAG)
was added to the Board of the Borders Committee to facilitate a full dialogue between
SANDAG and SCAG (SANDAG 2014B). It is important to note that SCAG is currently the
largestCouncilofGovernmentsintheUnitedStates(SCAG,2014a).
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 154
Within the past year, this grouphas established anOverallWorkProgramwith a
proposed schedule to discuss the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) and
SCAG’scollaborationandlongtermplanning.Additionally,therehasbeenanupdateonthe
Western Riverside Council of Government’s (WRCOG) Interstate 15 Interregional
Partnership(IRP).Thiscommitteeprovidesanexistingcrossregionalplatformasamedium
forpartnership. Certainly, thesegroupsshouldbeconsultedand their insights shouldbe
enlistedandintegratedintoanydiscussionsoftheTri‐CountyAirportproject.
IRP(Inter‐regionalPartnership)
The IRP is a voluntary partnership between multiple public and private sector
organizations spanning Riverside and San Diego Counties. Public organizations such as
SANDAG andWRCOG are heavily involved. Created in 2001, the IRP aims to address the
imbalance of jobs and housing growth between two‐county region. The premise of this
imbalanceisattributedtoagrowingnumberoflongdistancecommuters,whichwillhavea
seriousimpactontransportation,environment,andthegeneralqualityoflifeofresidents.
The long‐termgoal of the Interstate IRP is to reduce thenumber ofwork related vehicle
trips and commuter miles through a committee‐based framework that will facilitate
sustainable landuse. Increasing the availability of employment in areas closer to regions
wherepeoplelivewhilealsoincreasingaffordablehousinginareasclosertojob‐richareas
willrequirefewerpeopletocommutebetweenthetworegions(I15,2014).
Theproposedairportwillhelpinbothregardsbycreatingjobsclosertotheborder
between San Diego and Riverside. The airport would, by the nature of the massive
operations inplaceduringconstructionandthesubsequentsupportingoperations,create
anemploymentclusteratthecenterofthetri‐countyareawhichwould,whileperhapsnot
reducing the number of inter‐county trips, would certainly shorten those commutes and
reducenumberofcommutermilestravelerswouldengagein.
In 2005, the distribution of San Diego and Riverside employment in the
entertainmentandrecreation industrywas68%and32%,respectively.This imbalanceof
employment in the industry suggests that Riverside County is lacking employment
opportunityinthishiskeyindustry.Thisdisparitycouldbehelpedbythecreationofanew
business and industry cluster centered around a new international airport. A large job
cluster would emerge as a result of airport operation related jobs and complementary
industries, such as tourism and entertainment. An international airport further the IRP’s
existingentertainmentandrecreationindustrygoalsbyidentifyingopportunitiestobrand
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 155
theTri‐Countyregionwhiledevelopingcomplementarymessagestoreinforcethestrengths
of each respective regionwhile developing an interregional transportation infrastructure
thatwouldprovidetravelersaccess throughouttheregion.Thiscollaborativerelationship
wouldprovideeconomicandemploymentopportunities(I15,2014B).
SanDiegoTri‐CountyFundingAreaCoordinatingCommittee
The SanDiego Tri‐County Funding Area Coordinating Committee, aptly named, is
anotheralready‐existingpartnershipamongRiverside,OrangeandSanDiegoCounties.This
group was formed to encourage integrated regional strategies from managing water
resourcestosecuringgrantfunding.Amainfocusofthiscommitteeistoproactivelyprotect
thecounties fromdroughtwhileprotectingand improvingwaterquality.This framework
not only allows for necessary autonomy while providing interregional cooperation to
improvewaterqualitybutalsoprovidesneededprocessestoaddressanyissuesorconflicts
thatmayemergeamongstthethreeregions(OCPublicWorks2009).
OtherPotentialPartnerships
Similar to theway that concept cars introducenew technology inpotential future
cars, a notion of concept collaboration can be used to introduce potential collaboration
ideasthatwillbesupportedwithanewinternationalairport.Anewairportcouldserveasa
nucleusandanchorfornewmajorbusinessopportunities,asSanDiegoisadestinationof
choiceforleisureandbusinesstravelersalike.
One potential business partner of the region is the NFL’s San Diego Chargers
Footballclub.FormanyyearsSanDiegohasbeenindiscussionswiththeteam,recognizing
the economic importance ofmaintaining the team in the region but have been unable to
secure funding of voter support for a new football stadium. A joint venture could be a
rallying point for the tri‐county areawhile keeping the team in SanDiego and providing
employmentopportunitiesthroughouttheregion.
Another staple of the SanDiego area that could be a potential partner is the San
DiegoConventionCenter.This facility currentlyhasunmetdemandas39.7%ofpotential
customers do not book the San Diego Convention Center because it does notmeet their
spacerequirements.Thisrepresentsa$1billionlossineconomicimpactthattheareacould
be realizing. According to a 2014 Cvent survey, a technology firm used by worldwide
meetingplanners, SanDiegowas ranked fifthon the top fiftymeetingdestinations in the
country.Withmoreconventioncenterspaceandadditionalair travelofferings,SanDiego
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 156
could benefit from increased bookings and could also attract larger conventions while
keepingcurrentlargeofferingssuchasComicCon.
Finally, the tri‐county regioncouldgreatlybenefit from joint tourismefforts. San
Diegoiscurrentlyamajortourismdestinationandafullserviceinternationalairportcould
pullfromvisitorsfromSanFranciscoandLosAngeles,tappingintothetourismmarketeven
further.Thiswouldcreateauniqueopportunityfortheareaasatri‐countyTourismBoard
would market local tourism activities. San Diego could focus on the San Diego Zoo, Sea
World, the craft beer industry, and professional sports. Likewise, Orange County could
market Disneyland, Knott’s Berry Farm, Medieval Times and professional hockey and
baseball,whileRiversidecouldfocusonwinetasting,museumsandstateparks.
Conclusion
Thisstudywas intendedtoexplorethepoliticalconsiderationsspanningSouthern
California affecting the possibility of building an international airport at MCB Camp
Pendleton.ThislocationiseasilyaccessibletotheTri‐Countyareacurrentlyunder‐served
by the existing airports that are also expected to reach capacity soon. Several previous
studies indicate that thissitewouldmeetFAAstandardswhileminimizing theresidential
population thatwould be impacted by either noise or pollution. This location provides a
sufficiently largeopenspace thatcanaccommodate large international flights thatcannot
be accommodated elsewhere. Further, this large land mass represents less than five
percentofthetotallandareacontrolledbyMCBCampPendleton.
If an international airportwere to be constructed at this location therewould be
manypoliticalhurdlesthatwouldneedtobeclearedfirst. Thestrongestonewouldbeto
findwaystomitigatetheimpacttotheMarinetraininginitiative.Thereisalsotheneedto
minimize potential environmental impacts including pollution and habitat destruction of
thesixteenendangeredplantandanimalspeciesonoradjacenttothesite.
If there is a desire to further pursue the building of an airport at MCB Camp
Pendleton,therearenumeroustasksthatwillneedtobecompleted.Manyitemsthathave
beenmentionedthroughoutthisreportwouldneedtobeaddressedbutthemostpressing
wouldbetohavealloftheneededstudiesdonetodeterminetheviabilityofsuccesspriorto
signinganycontractstomove forward. Therewouldbetheneed forecologicalstudies,a
roadwaystudy,and,whatcouldbetheshowstopper,anenvironmentalfeasibilitystudy.It
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Chapter5:PoliticalConsiderations 157
wouldbeatravestytomoveforwardwithoutthesupportofthemyriadnumbersofpublic
agencies that have been detailed in this report.
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Conclusions 158
INTERNATIONALEXPLORATORYAIRPORTSTUDY2.0
CONCLUSIONSThe2013ExploratoryAirportStudyconcludedthatCampPendletonwouldbethe
onlyfeasiblelocationforsuchafacilitywithinSanDiegoCounty.Thatconclusionservedas
the starting point for the 2014ExploratoryAirport Study 2.0 presented in the preceding
chapters. The analyses presented in this report address numerous ways in which the
projectwillaffecttheregion.TheyrelatetoservingthetravelneedsofresidentsoftheTri‐
County region; increasing air‐travel capacity for SouthernCalifornia; building an efficient
and sustainable ground transport system; and creating jobs and building the economy.
Eachoftheseisdiscussedinthefollowingparagraphs:
ServingtheTravelNeedsoftheTri‐CountyPopulation
TheCampPendletonsiteis locatedinthecenterofTri‐County,whichspansNorth
SanDiego, SouthernOrange, andSouthwestRiversideCounties. Currentlyhome tomore
than 2.2 million residents, the population of the Tri‐County region will increase to 2.7
million people by the time a new airport is constructed. This diverse population shares
manyofthecharacteristicsoftheflyingpublic.However,comparedtonationalaveragesin
terms of distance to an international airport, the population of the Tri‐County region is
underserved.FromtheperspectiveofTri‐Countyresidents,anewairportisneeded.
IncreasingAir‐TravelCapacityforSouthernCalifornia
The new airport will benefit the entire Southern California region beyond Tri‐
County. Even with current expansion plans for air traffic infrastructure, both the Los
AngelesandSanDiegoregions–andthusSouthernCaliforniaasawhole–willbeunableto
meetdemandforairtravelby2040. Itisestimatedthatthesixairportscurrentlyserving
theregionwillfallshortofdemandbyasmanyas30millionenplanements.
The new SCIA will enhance the operations of the recently expanded San Diego
International Airport (SAN). Based on the benchmark study of othermetropolitan areas
served bymultiple airports – aswell as current topographical constraints – SANwill be
unable to handle the level of international travel a city of its size requires. The newly
renovated SAN can and should remain a vital part of the infrastructure servingdomestic
traveltotheCityofSanDiegoandthesurroundingmunicipalities.Thenewairportshould
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Conclusions 159
focusprimarily,butnotsolely,oninternationaltravel,providingeasyaccesstounderserved
residentsoftheTri‐Countyregion.Currently,thosewishingtoreachSanDiego,Southwest
Riverside, or Southern Orange Counties from outside the U.S. must first transit through
other international airports. However, the proposed SCIA will provide easy access for
business,tourist,andmilitarypassengersflyinginfromabroad.
BuildinganEfficientandSustainableGroundTransportSystem
OceansideliesatthecrossroadsoftheTri‐Countyregion.Theproposedlocationfor
SCIAisclosetodowntown.Inter‐countybusandtrainlinesmeet inOceanside. East‐west
state routes that connect the two major north‐south interstate highways pass through
Oceanside.Theanalysispresentedinthisreportshowsthatwithplansunderway,roadway
improvementsmaybeadequatetohandleincreasedtrafficonalreadycrowdedfreewaysto
andfromtheairport.Incontrasttoroadways,currentpublictransportationinfrastructure
is vastly under‐utilized in the Tri‐County region and throughout Southern California in
general.Adeliberativeefforttolinkandcreateroadandmass‐transitinfrastructurewillbe
needed to serve the airport in ways that minimize traffic congestion as well as
environmental impact. Increasing ridership should offset the increased demand from
vehiculartrafficonroads.Effortsmustbemadetoincreaseridershipofmasstransitamong
today’sfuelconsciousMillennialconsumerssothattheywillconsidertakingpublictransit
totheairportinthefuture.
CreatingJobsandBuildingtheEconomy
Thenewairport isexpectedtogeneratesome11,000 jobsduring itsconstruction.
This is based upon benchmarking against other recent projects. Once it is built out, and
dependinguponactual,asopposedtoestimatedenplanements,thenewairportisexpected
to employ some30,000workers onsite. Benchmarking against other recently completed
internationalairportssuchasDenver,SCIAhasthepotentialtocreatebetween100,000and
200,000newjobsinrelatedandsupportingindustrieswithintheimmediatevicinity.This
report estimated that themultiplier effect of these new jobs on the local economy could
reach between $3 billion and $6 billion. Additionally, the earnings of the people and
businessesworking at or near the airportwill substantially contribute to the local, state,
andfederaltaxbases.
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Conclusions 160
It iseasytobecomeenthusiasticaboutthegreatpotential thatthisairporthas for
servingtheairtravelneedsoftheregionandbuildingitseconomy.However,makingSCIAa
realitywill be challenging.Conversationsanddebate aboutbuildinganewairport in San
DiegoCountyhavebeengoingonfordecades.Therearemanygovernmental,military,civic,
andbusinessgroupsthathavevestedinterests–andgraveconcerns–aboutwhereanew
airportshouldbelocatedandwhatitmightmeantotheregion.Themembersofthe2014
MBA project team met with representatives of various stakeholder groups and have
highlighted their concerns in this report. Without a concerted effort toworkwith these
groups, the debatemight rage on formany years into the future. The first steps toward
realizingthegoalsoftheSouthernCaliforniaInternationalAirportlocatedintheTri‐County
regionwillinvolveaddressingtheconcernsofkeystakeholdersandenlistingtheirsupport.
Beyondovercoming theseobjections, the successof theAirportProjectwilldependupon
building alliances and cooperative efforts among key stakeholders from within the Tri‐
Countyregion,andbeyond.
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References 161
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