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SOLOMON PETER !I N V E S T M E N T S !
P R O V I D I N G A C C E S S T O E N E R G Y
www.solomonpeter.com
L N G : T h e R I S E O F A C O M M O D I T Y
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Contents
SolomonPeterInvestments
OverviewofkeySupplyDemandTrends
ComponentsforCommoditization
CommoditizationTrends
Demand-sideBenefits:ExistingLNGMarkets
Demand-sideBenefits:NewLNGMarkets
ConclusionandKeyTakeaways
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Solomon Peter Investments!Providing Access to Energy
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Solomon Peter Investments is a boutique energy brokerage and advisory firm that offers transactional, commercial advisory and analytical support for cleaner energy initiatives, namely gas/LNG- related projects, (gas-to-power, water desalination, gas-to- industry), and renewables as well as procuring supply and financing as necessary.
Our expertise is not only based on our hand-on industry experience but also on our strategic partnerships that consist of:• Project Developers• Technology Providers• State-owned entities• Funds and Private Equity• Banks• Commodities Suppliers• Other clean energy related initiatives
We have office located in the UAE and London, and are planning to open an office in Singapore this year.
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Solomon Peter Investments!Value Chain Optimisation
ConceptDefinition
FeasibilityStudy
DealDevelopment
Financing
Operations
Marketanalysis,RegionalStudies;ProjectDueDiligence
EconomicEvaluation;FeasibilityStudies;RiskManagement;StrategyDevelopment
MarketingandOrigination;NegotiatingAgreements;CommercialStructuring;PermittingSupport
PrivateplacementofDebtandEquity;FinancialAdvisory
PortfolioOptimisation;SpotMarketSales;Hedging
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IntroductiontoSolomonPeterInvestments
OverviewofkeySupplyDemandTrends
ComponentsforCommoditization
CommoditizationTrends
Demand-sideBenefits:ExistingLNGMarkets
Demand-sideBenefits:NewLNGMarkets
ConclusionandKeyTakeaways
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LNG Output continues from Australia and the US
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-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Australia
USA
Angola
Nigeria
Malaysia
Algeria
Russia
Brun
ei
Papu
aNew
Guine
a
Equitoria
lGuine
a
Egypt
Oman
UAE
T&T
Peru
Norway
Indo
nesia
Qatar
MT NetExports:2017YoYAustralia:• GorgonLNGT3(5.2MTPA)• WheatstoneT1(4.5MTPA)USA:• SabinePassT3&4
(9MTPA)• CovePointT1(5.3MTPA)Russia:• YamalT1(5.5MTPA)Malaysia:• FLNGSatu(1.2MTPA)
Source: GIIGNL
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China overtakes South Korea as the second largest LNG importer
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
China
SouthKo
rea
Spain
Turkey
Fran
ce
Pakistan
Taiwan
Portugal
Italy
Thailand
Greece
Mexico
Malaysia
Poland
Nethe
rland
s
Jordan
India
Japa
n
Brazil
Jamaica
Israel
Belgium
Swed
en
Dom.Rep
Chile
Cana
da
Finlan
d
Kuwait
Columbia
Argentina
Singap
ore
USA
Lithua
nia
PuertoRico
Indo
nesia
UAE
Eqypt
UK
MT NetImports:2017YoY
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Spot Contract
MT SpotvsContractedVolumes
Source: GIIGNL
Source: Shell LNG Outlook 2018
Source: SPI Contract Data
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Financial Liquidity soars on the Spot Market
Source: Shell LNG Outlook 2018Source: Platts JKM
Source: GIIGNL
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Key Trends from 2017
RisingLNGSupply
IncreasingSpotMarketLiquidity
Risingdemand
fromExistingandNewBuyers
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IntroductiontoSolomonPeterInvestments
OverviewofkeySupplyDemandTrends
ComponentsforCommoditization
CommoditizationTrends
Demand-sideBenefits:ExistingLNGMarkets
Demand-sideBenefits:NewLNGMarkets
ConclusionandKeyTakeaways
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6 Key Points of Commoditization
Commoditization
Liberalisation&3rdPartyAccess
FinancialHedgingavailable
LargernumberMarket
Participants
RisingSpotVolumes
ContractStandardisation
Mid&DownstreamInvestment
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IntroductiontoSolomonPeterInvestments
OverviewofkeySupplyDemandTrends
ComponentsforCommoditization
CommoditizationTrends
Demand-sideBenefits:ExistingLNGMarkets
Demand-sideBenefits:NewLNGMarkets
ConclusionandKeyTakeaways
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Fundamental Indicators point to the Commoditization of LNG
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0
20
40
60
80
100
2018 2019 2020
MTPA GrowthofFlexibleLNGSupply
Flexible Contracted
• Failure to Deliver/Take • Off-spec Gas • Force Majeure • Title Transfer • Credit Support • Applicable Laws and Disputes
Rising Uncontracted Supply Increasing Role of Intermediaries
Contract Standardisation Market Liberalisation & Third Party Access
Source: Shell LNG Outlook 2018Source: SPI: Contracts Data
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IntroductiontoSolomonPeterInvestments
OverviewofkeySupplyDemandTrends
ComponentsforCommoditization
CommoditizationTrends
Demand-sideBenefits:ExistingLNGMarkets
Demand-sideBenefits:NewLNGMarkets
ConclusionandKeyTakeaways
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Existing Markets: A bag of Uncertainties
JapanNuclearRestarts
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
02468
1012141618
Asatend-2017 LowCase ReferenceCase HighCase
FY2018
TWhNo.Reactors No.Reactors TWh(RHS)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Japan Taiwan SouthKorea
MTPA
Source: Shell LNG Outlook 2018
Source: SPI Contract Data
Source: IEEJ
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Est.ContractExpiries2018-2023Est.ContractExpiries2018-2023
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Asia to remain as the worlds largest LNG importing region
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Increaseinspotmarketpurchasing
Leveragingthecurrent
buyersmarket
NewLNGbusinessmodels
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IntroductiontoSolomonPeterInvestments
OverviewofkeySupplyDemandTrends
ComponentsforCommoditization
CommoditizationTrends
Demand-sideBenefits:ExistingLNGMarkets
Demand-sideBenefits:NewLNGMarkets
ConclusionandKeyTakeaways
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New Markets Require Total Package Investment
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DecliningDomesticProduction
LiquidFuelandCoal
Displacement
OffsetVariationinRenewableProduction
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New Markets, New Challenges
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
UnderConstruction Proposed
No.ofProjectsNewFSRUProjects
A-Grade B-Grade Non-InvestmentGrade
Source: Shell LNG Outlook 2018
Source: Moody’s
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Albert Einstein: In The Middle Of Every Difficulty Lies Opportunity
RiskLayeringRiskManagement
TechnologicalAdvancements PolicyReforms
Source: Hoegh LNG PGN FSRU Lampung 3D Model- 21 -
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PortfolioPlayers&TradingHouses
TechnologyProviders
LocalGovernments
Financing
Unlocking New Markets is a 4-fold Endeavour
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IntroductiontoSolomonPeterInvestments
OverviewofkeySupplyDemandTrends
ComponentsforCommoditization
CommoditizationTrends
Demand-sideBenefits:ExistingLNGMarkets
Demand-sideBenefits:NewLNGMarkets
ConclusionandKeyTakeaways
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In Summary: The LNG market IS Commoditizing and bringing with it more Flexibility• The key to unlocking new markets and remaining in existing markets is
FLEXIBILITY • New Market – Flexibility in Financing • Existing Markets – Flexibility in Contract Term
• Industry expansions have been driven by a combination of two key trends, the gradual spread of gas on gas competition and the gradual transition to lower emission energy, both of which have affirmed LNG as a commodity in its own right • Growing destination flexible LNG volumes, mainly driven by US LNG
supplies, will continue to create a more liquid and transparent spot market which in turn will reduce price segmentation and encourage fair competition • This will boost accessibility for new markets and promote diversification in
existing markets – both of which will play an increasingly vital role in the use of gas in the future energy mix of a post-COP 21 world.
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Thank You For Your Attention!
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UAE
London(HQ)Singapore(planned)
MsZavierFrancisDirector,BusinessDevelopment
+44(0)7495834639+971(0)522467971
www.solomonpeter.com