Download - Soda Ash Commodity Report (2)
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SODAASHCOMMODITYREPORT
EER396GEOLOGYOFEARTHRESOURCES
PREPAREDBY:JOHNMAXWELLSEPTEMBER22,2011
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Abstract
Asanimportantpartofmanyfinishedproductsofmodernlifesodaashisakeyindustrialmineral.Soda
ashhasbothnaturalandsyntheticmeansofproduction.TheSolvayProcessisthedominantsynthetic
process.TheUnitedStatesisblessedwithlargenaturaldepositsofnaturalsodaashintheformoftrona
ore.Themainusesforsodaashareintheproductionofglass,chemicals,soapanddetergent. Glass
manufacturingismostcommonuseforsodaash.Fromflatglassforwindowsandautomobile
windshieldstocontainerglassforfood,sodaandbeer,sodaashisachiefinputforallofthoseproducts.
Theproductionofsodaashhasgenerallyincreasedforthepasttenyears.Thepercentofsodaashused
inthe
develop
world
has
slowed
due
to
astagnant
economy.
However,
China
and
India
have
provided
a
strongdemandforsodaashastheireconomieshavenotslowedandarestillgrowingathighrates.Like
anyindustrialmineral,growthistiedtoGDPdemand,butsincethemanufacturingofglassisakey
componentinhigherlivingstandards(windowsinhomes,automobiles)ChinaandIndiaprovidealarge
marketforthecontinuedgrowthintheuseofsodaash.
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Introduction
Sodaashorsodiumcarbonate,Na2CO3,analkalinematerial,hasbeenusedthroughouthistoryfor
variousindustrialpurposes(Kostick,1995,p.99100).Whennecessarymaterialsbecomescarcehumans
adapttofindalternativewaystoproducetheitem.DuringtheIndustrialRevolution,theFrenchneeded
sodaashformanufacturingglassandtextiles.Franceneededareliablesupplyofsodaashasitwas
becomingincreasinglydifficulttofind.Anincentiveof2400livreswasofferedbytheFrenchAcademyof
Sciencestoderivesodaasheconomicallyfromseasalt.NicolasLeblancwasthemanwhodevelopeda
processtocultivatesodaashfromasaltcakeandhydrochloricacid.Leblancneverreceivedhisprize,
buthe
showed
it
was
possible
to
extract
prized
alkalis
from
other
sources
(Kiefer,
2002
Jan.).Today,
soda
ashcanbeproducedthroughnaturalorsyntheticmeans.Asof2006,70%oftheworldssodaashis
producedsyntheticallyandthemajorityproducedviatheSolvayProcesswhiletherestisproducedvia
naturaldeposits(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.872).Bothnaturalandsyntheticallyproducedsodaash
arekeyinputstoproducingmanyitemsthatarepartofeverydaylife.
LocationandGeneralGeologyofNaturalSodaAsh
Inigneousandmetamorphicgroundwaterenvironmentsthereisalackofchlorideandsulfate.Withthe
absenceofthesematerials,thefluidissaturatedwithcarbonandsodium.Sodiumcarbonatewill
emergefromtheweatheringofigneousrocks.Oneideatheorizedforthegeneralformationofsodium
carbonateistheevaporationofwatersaturatedwithsodiumcarbonateinshallowwater. Naturalsoda
ashoccursinsemiaridregionswheretherateofevaporationisgradualandisconcentratedintotrona
ore.Sodaashoccursnaturallyintrona(sodiumsequicarbonate)depositswhichisamineralwhich
containssodiumcarbonate.Monohydrate,Wegscheiderite,andSodiumBicarbonateareothersodium
carbonatecontainingminerals.(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.860861)Someofthegeologic
propertiesoftronaare:perfectcleavage,unevenfracture,2.53hardness,andsolubleinH20(Anthony,
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Bideaux,Bladh,andNichols,2005).Althoughthesesodiumcarbonatesolutionsoccurnaturally,
economicallyviabledepositsarerareduetothesolubilityandsoftnessoftheminerals. Trona
concentrationsaregeologicallyyoungduetheseproperties(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.861).The
largestsingledepositoftronaislocatedinWyoming,U.S.A.intheGreenRiverBasinwithknown
reservesof47billionmetrictons(Kostick,2011,p.2).China,Botswana,Kenya,Turkey,andEthiopiaare
othercountrieswithlargedepositsofnaturalsodaash(Kostick,2010,70.3).Brineswithsodium
carbonateareanothermainnaturalformforsodaashproduction.Inadditiontothenaturaldeposits,
thesyntheticproductionofsodaashisderivedfromvariousnaturalmaterialssuchassalt,limestone,
coal(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.871).
Consumption
WhetherSodaashisproducednaturallyorsyntheticallytheusesarethesame.Sodaashhasbeenused
forthousandsofyears.OneinterestingusewasbyAncientEgyptianswhousedmadeglassfromit
(Kostick,1995,p.99).Historically,themostcommonusesareglassandsoap.Thesetwousescontinueto
besignificant(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.873).In2010,theconsumptionpercentageofsodaashin
theU.S.was:48%glassproduction,26%chemicalproduction,10%soapanddetergents,4%
desulfurizationoffluegas,4%pulpandpaperand8%otheruses.Thereportedconsumptionofsodaash
in2010intheU.S.was5,270metrictonsandhasbeenincreasingsincetheendoftherecessionof2008
(SeeChart1forU.S.consumption)(Kostick,2010,p.70.2).
PrimaryUsesofSodaAsh:Glass,Chemicals,SoapandDetergents
Thechiefinwhichsodaashisusedisglassmanufacturing.Flat,container,fiberandspecialtyglassare
differenttypesofglassinwhichsodaashisconsumed(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.873874).51%of
theglassproducedin2010withsodaashwascontainerglass.Containerglassisproducedforfood,
beer,liquor,andotherconsumerproducts.Flatglassistheothermajorglassproductinwhichthekey
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endproductsarevehicleglassandbuildingconstruction(Kostick,2010,p.70.2).Manychemicalsare
createdindirectlywithsodaashbeingprimerawmaterial.Someexamplesofchemicalsthatusesoda
asharebakingsoda,causticsoda,sodiumphosphates(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.874).Sodaash
hasthreemainusesintheproductionofdetergents:Directadditiontoenhancethecleaningactionof
thedetergent,feedstockbuilderofvariouscleaningsurfactants,andlaundrywatersoftener(Santini,
Fastert,Harris,2006,p.874).
ProductionandPriceHistoryofSodaAsh
Sincethereisbothnaturalandsyntheticsodaash,therearetwodifferentproductionprocesses.The
twomajorprocessesofnaturalsodaashareabrineprocessandaTronaoreprocess.Thebrineprocess
consistsofdryingoutsodiumcarbonaterichwaterandcollectingtheresultingsolidproduct.The
secondprocessconsistsofrockandpillarminestoproducetronaore,whichis90%puresodium
carbonate,thatiscrushed,dissolved,filtered,anddriedtoeliminatethe10%tracematerialstoproduce
>99%sodaash(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.870).(SeeChart2forTronaOreProcessingdiagram)
About30%ofsodaashisproducednaturallywiththemajorityintheU.S.Therearenumerouswaysto
producesodaashsynthetically(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.871).Thetwosyntheticprocesses
createdinthe19thcenturytosolvethesupplyshortageofsodaashweretheLeblancProcessandthe
SolvayProcess. Thesetwoprocesseswereinstrugglewitheachotherforsupremacy.TheSolvay
Processbecamethestandardprocessbecauseitwaslesswastefulofinputsandcausedlesspolluting
thantherivalLeblancProcess(Kiefer,2002Feb).ThemainrawmaterialsintheSolvayProcessaresalt,
limestone,water
and
coal
to
fire
the
ovens
to
make
steam
(Santini,
Fastert,
Harris,
2006,
p.
872).
The
basicprocessconsistsofcreatingammoniabrinethatisthenmixedwithCO2.ThereactionoftheCO2
andthesaltscreatessodiumbicarbonatewhichiseasilydecomposedintosodiumcarbonatebyheating
(SeeChart3foraSolvayProcessdiagram)(Kiefer,2002Feb).Theproductionofsodaashworldwidein
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2010was47,500,000metrictons.(SeeChart4forWorldSodaAshProduction)Sodaashisvaluedper
metrictonbytheUSGS.Theguidelinevalueisanaverageoffreeonboardbulk(f.o.b.),densenatural
sodaashfromGreenRiver,WYandSearlesValley,CA.Thedifferencebetweenvalueandpriceisthat
theUSGSreportsthevalueofcombinedrevenueonlongtermcontractswithnovalueaddcosts
includedinthevalue.Thevaluein2010was$128.39(PleaseSeeChart5forSodaAshValue)(Kostick,
2010,p.70.2).
GrowthForecast
Sincethepriceofsodaashisnotalwaysdirectlylinkedtothevalue,forecastingtherateofproductionis
amoredirectprocess. Therateofgrowthinthesodaashindustryismainlydependentonitsprimary
product:glass.Duetotherecession,thedevelopedworldislikelytoexperienceflatgrowthinglass
demand.However,developingcountriesoftheworldleadtwopowerfultrendsofgrowthinglass
manufacturing:buildingconstructionandautomobilesmanufacturing.From2010 2020,therewillbe
growthof26%intotalcommercialandresidentialfloorspace(PikeResearch,2011). From2004to
2010,therewasa150%increaseinautomobilespercapitainChinawithalikelihoodofanother
doublinginthenextyenyears(Heymann,E.,2010) Demandforflatglasswindowforbuildingsand
automobilewindshieldswillmirrorthedemandtrendsforthefinishedproducts.Inthedeveloped
world,thereisonemainfactornegativelyaffectingsodaashdemandenvironmentalconcerns.There
hasbeeneffortputintoincreasingglassrecyclingaswellasadoptionofplasticcontainersforfoodand
beverage(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.873).Bothofthoseconcernsreducetheneedforproduced
glass.In
Chart
4the
average
production
growth
for
pre
recession
time
period
was
4%,
with
low
and
negativegrowthexperiencedduringtherecession.However,2010shows7%growth.Thisistheeffect
oftheGDPgrowthinthedevelopingworldespeciallyChina,whereGDPgrowthwillbe9.5%in2011and
2012(IMF,2011,p.72).Although7%maybeanoutlier,aregressiontoaprerecession4%growthrate
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isafairlylikelyestimateforsodaashproduction.Thisisduetothedemandinthedevelopingworld,
whichwilllikelybeastrongerforcethantheenvironmentalconcernsandthelingeringrecessioninthe
developedworld(PleaseseeChart6forWorldSodaAshProductionForecast) AsmoreChineseand
Indianpeoplewanttodrivecarsinsteadofscooters,ownmultistoryhomeswithmanywindowsand
workinhighrisebuildingsthathaveanallglassfaade,itiscertainlypossiblethatsodaashdemandwill
mirrorGDPgrowthindevelopingcountries.
Conclusion
AlthoughtheLeblancprocessisnotusedtoday,thesyntheticproductionofsodaashisaveryimportant
source. EvenaftertheIndustrialRevolutionandworldwars,sodaashcontinuestobeanimportant
commodityfortheworld.Itwouldbemuchhardertoproduceglassandwashclotheswithoutsodaash.
Asfarasindustrialmineralsgo,sodaashisfairlyanonymous,butitsimpactisinvaluableformodern
standardsofliving.Theriseoflivingstandardsinthedevelopingworldwillcreatedemandforsodaash
fortheforeseeablefuture.
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rt1:U.S.SodaAshConsumption:ReportedSoda Ash Consumption: Reported
2001 6,380
2002 6,430
2003 6,270
2004 6,260
2005 6,2002006 6,110
2007 5,940
2008 5,700
2009 5,020
2010 5,270
(Thousand metric tons)
eproduced from 2001-2010 Soda Ash Minerals Yearbook from United States Geological Survey
aterials located at http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/soda_ash/
sed on September 16th, 2011
8
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
000'sMetricTonsofSodaAshConsum
ption
U.S.SODAASHCONSUMPTION:REP
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Chart4:EstimatedWorldSodaAshProductionSODA ASH: ESTIMATED WORLD PRODUCTION
Year Metric Tons % Change from prior year
2001 35,700
2002 37,200 4%
2003 38,400 3%
2004 40,300 5%2005 41,900 4%
2006 43,700 4%
2007 45,900 5%
2008 46,700 2%
2009 44,300 -5%
2010 47,500 7%
(Thousand metric tons)
Data reproduced from 2001-2010 Soda Ash Minerals Yearbook from United States Geological Survey
All materials located at http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/soda_ash/
Accessed on September 16th, 2011
11
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200
000'sMetricTonSodaAshProduction
SODAASH: ESTIMATEDWORLDPRBYYEAR
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Chart5: SodaAshValueYear Avg. ($) Value f.o.b. per metric ton
2001 74.73
2002 74.96
2003 71.88
2004 70.272005 88.39
2006 100.52
2007 114.12
2008 134.6
2009 143.17
2010 128.39
Data reproduced from 2001-2010 Soda Ash Minerals Yearbook from United States Geological Survey
All materials located at http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/soda_ash/
Accessed on September 16th, 2011
12
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 )ValueofMetricTonF.O.B.
SodaAsh
SODAASH($)VALUEF.O.B.PERMEBYYEAR
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Chart6: Forecasted10yearSodaAshProduction
SODA ASH: ESTIMATED WORLD PRODUCTION
Year Metric Tons*
2011 49,400
2012 51,376
2013 53,431
2014 55,5682015 57,791
2016 60,103
2017 62,507
2018 65,007
2019 67,607
2020 70,312
(Thousand metric tons)
*Assuming 4% growth rate for next 10 years
13
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2
000
'sMetrictonsofSodaAshProduction
ForecastedGrowthofSodaAshP
2020
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