Social and economic aspects of ICZM; functionality and valuation
Annemie Volckaert
First BeNCoRe Conference 26/04/2007
Outline presentation
Socio economic impact of major activities Overview recent studies Gaps
Socio economic impact: challenges
Comment Green Paper topic “how can quality of life be maintained in coastal regions”
Users of the Belgian part of the North Sea Belgian part of the North Sea
(BPNS): Part of southern North Sea 3600 km²
Different users Shipping & anchorage Fishery/ mariculture Aggregate extraction Dredging Dumping Military exercises Off-shore constructions Wrecks, buoys, masts Cables & pipelines Tourism/ recreation Nature areas
Sustainable management of North Sea
Socio-economic Impact on the Environment Identification
Valuation
I. Maritime transport
Shipping: Commercial (incl. ferries) Fisheries Offshore industries: wind energy, aggregate
extraction, dredging & dumping, etc. Recreational
Risk analysis of Marine Activities in the Belgian Part of the North Sea (RAMA) – SPSD II (2006)
Evaluation of marine degradation in the North Sea (MARE-DASM) – OSTC (2002)
Risk analysis of Marine Activities in the Belgian Part of
the North Sea (RAMA)
Supported by the Federal Science Policy
Goals
Risk-analysis of shipping incidents with environmental damage on the Belgian part of the North Sea
Study area: BPNS Excl. Scheldt traffic Excl. Noordhinder TSS
Data: Database IVS-SRK Data period 01/04/2003 –
31/03/2004 Data on ferries from
Ostend
Impact valuation
Historical dataModellingGIS based
analysisQualitative impact table
Release assessment: Cargo spill risk Tonnes/yr spilled
Highest risk class 8 (dangerous, no info) Total: 539 t/yr Containers: 390 t/yr
Class 1 (MP, cat A) Total: 12.3 t/yr Containers: 9.9 t/yr
Class 2 (crudes) Total: 101 t/yr Oil tankers: 101 t/yr
1.0 E-08 - 1.0 E-06
1.0 E-06 - 1.0 E-05
1.0 E-05 - 1.0 E-04
1.0 E-04 - 1.0 E-03
1.0 E-03 - 1.0 E-02
> 1.0 E-02
Exposure and effect assessment Selection of two scenarios
Worst case oil: 17.000 ton/accident; crudes Worst case HNS: 8.000 ton/accident (1.000
ton/accident); acetone cyanohydrine Sensitivity analysis (GIS-based)
Ecological parameters (e.g. Ramsar, MPA, beach reserve)
Socio-economic parameters (e.g. ports, spawning site, extraction zone, wind farm)
3 Scenarios (general, winter, summer ~ interests) Effect analysis
Exposure assessment (PEC) Consequence assessment (PNEC) Risk characterisation (PEC/PNEC)
Summer scenario
Effect analysis : worst case
Exposure assessment: MU slicklets model (BMM) 12,6 km² oil spill In 13 hours Zwin
Consequence assessment: LC50 aromatic comp. Direct loss biota: 12% - 68% Bird loss open sea: 471 Bird loss Zwin: 741 Seabirds;
2595 Water birds
Exposure assessment: No model available HNS
(sedimentation) 0,01 mg/l (critical effect
concentration = 1% loss biota) 75 simulation days
Consequence assessment: Ecological impact area 8.000 ton: 70% BPNS 1.000 ton: 40% BPNS
Evaluation of marine degradation in the North Sea (MARE-DASM)
Goal
Development of mathematical models assessing the risk and damage Identification & quantification of the
different contaminants in the marine environment
Socio-economic assessment criteria to determine the cost of degradation
Development & evaluation of technical and legal procedures
Socio-economic assessment
Valuation of the non-use value of BPNS in case of an accidental oil spill Contingent Valuation method
(questionnaire) Scenario: 10.000 m³ spill Scenario: 5.000 m³ spill Scenario: 200 m³ spill
Willingness to pay: between 375 and 606 million €
II. Industries Offshore:
Wind energy Aggregate extraction LNG transport
Environmental impact assessment MAREBASSE: Management, Research and
Budgeting of Aggregates in Shelf Seas Related to End-users - SPSDII
Balancing the Impacts of Human activities on the Belgian Part of the North Sea (BALANS) – SPSDII Aggregate extraction
EIA as a legal instrument to evaluate impacts Legal basis:
International: EIA directive (85/337/EC) National:
Marine Law (20/01/1999) (art.28 §1) RD 09/09/2003: rules & procedures EIA
Master Plan North Sea Political priorities Delimitation of zones
RD 17/05/04 RD 01/09/04
EIA as a legal instrument to evaluate impacts Offshore windfarms
C-Power: 60 turbines (5-7 MW), 30 km offshore
Eldepasco: 36 turbines (5-7 MW), 38 km offshore
Bligh Bank: 69 turbines (5 MW), 45 km offshore
Sand- and gravel extraction Zeegra AWZ-Coast
EIA as a legal instrument to evaluate impacts Impact valuation of the activity on different
disciplines: Soil Water Atmosphere & Climate Noise & Vibrations/ Electromagnetic fields Fauna & flora & biodiversity Seasight Users Safety (shipping, radar, oil)
Major challenges: cumulative effects
III. Fisheries
Commercial fisheries Small fleet Big fleet Shrimps
Anglers (recreational)
Balancing the Impacts of Human activities on the Belgian Part of the North Sea (BALANS) –SPSD II
Balancing the Impacts of Human activities on the Belgian Part of the North Sea (BALANS)
Goals & methodology
Focus on: shrimp fisheries Aggregate extraction
Procedure Conceptual model development Translation into a system-thinking
environment Data entry Integrated conceptual policy & interface
development (STELLA model) Scenario development
Conceptual model (sand & gravel)
Outcome Improve understanding of the activity Manage the effects of policy choices on
sustainable management
IV. Human induced impacts
Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation responses for marine activities (CLIMAR) Coastal flooding Fisheries
Ballast water & invasive species
Socio-economic activities
Effect on abiotic
Effects on ecosystem
Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation
responses for marine activities (CLIMAR)
MethodologyWP1Definition and modelling of climate change induced primary impacts at North Sea scale
Climate change induced primary impacts: sea level rise, increased storminess, possible increased rainfall, salinity, temperature, etc.. Definition and modelling
WP2Deduction of climate change induced secondary impacts
Secondary impacts on the marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities Identification and
classifications
Case study – Fisheries sector Impact assessment
Case study - Coastal flooding Modelling
WP3Identification of adaptation scenario’s/measures
Case study – Coastal flooding Identification/modelling of
adaptation scenario’s/measures
Case study – Fisheries sector Identification/modelling of
adaptation scenario’s/measures
Marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities. extrapolation of adaptation
scenario’s/measures
WP4Evaluation of adaptation scenario’s/measures
Case study – Coastal flooding Evaluation adaptation
scenario/measures
Case study – Fisheries sector Evaluation adaptation
scenario/measures
Integrated sustainability assessment
of adaptation scenario's/measures
Elaboration of an evaluation framework for adaptation scenario’s/measures as a response to climate induced impacts (North Sea)
Evaluation of the effects of the proposed adaptive strategies (embedding in policy, practical integration, implementation )
Marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities. Evaluation adaptation
scenario/measures
Formulation of recommendations towards North Sea future policy and its different socio-economical activities.
WP1Definition and modelling of climate change induced primary impacts at North Sea scale
Climate change induced primary impacts: sea level rise, increased storminess, possible increased rainfall, salinity, temperature, etc.. Definition and modelling
WP2Deduction of climate change induced secondary impacts
Secondary impacts on the marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities Identification and
classifications
Case study – Fisheries sector Impact assessment
Case study - Coastal flooding Modelling
WP3Identification of adaptation scenario’s/measures
Case study – Coastal flooding Identification/modelling of
adaptation scenario’s/measures
Case study – Fisheries sector Identification/modelling of
adaptation scenario’s/measures
Marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities. extrapolation of adaptation
scenario’s/measures
WP4Evaluation of adaptation scenario’s/measures
Case study – Coastal flooding Evaluation adaptation
scenario/measures
Case study – Fisheries sector Evaluation adaptation
scenario/measures
Integrated sustainability assessment
of adaptation scenario's/measures
Elaboration of an evaluation framework for adaptation scenario’s/measures as a response to climate induced impacts (North Sea)
Evaluation of the effects of the proposed adaptive strategies (embedding in policy, practical integration, implementation )
Marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities. Evaluation adaptation
scenario/measures
Formulation of recommendations towards North Sea future policy and its different socio-economical activities.
CESSE-ULB & VITOCESSE-ULB & VITOContribution to Contribution to
SPICOSASPICOSA
BY BY
Dr. WALTER HECQDr. WALTER HECQ Ir. MATEO CORDIER Ir. MATEO CORDIER
GUY ENGELENGUY ENGELENJOACHIM MAESJOACHIM MAESLEO DeNOCKERLEO DeNOCKER
SPICOSA SPICOSA Fact sheet
Science and Policy Integration for Coastal Systems Assessment (http://www.eucc.net/spicosa/)
54 Partner institutes, 22 countries, 18 study sites 6th FP 1 Feb 2007 – 1 Feb 2011
Objective: Develop a system dynamics modelling approach to support decision-making processes enabling integrated assessment of coastal systems in Europe
Fully interlinked processes:physical & ecological;
economic, demographic & societal;environmental & land use.
at appropriate abstraction levels
Carrying out of economic Carrying out of economic assessment :assessment :
a)a) reviewing success of application reviewing success of application in other projects having carried out in other projects having carried out economic assessments (with economic assessments (with spatial dimensions)spatial dimensions)
Carrying out of economic assessment :Carrying out of economic assessment :
c) Assistance toc) Assistance to Study Site Applications Study Site Applications in :in :
- Selecting a methodology for economic Selecting a methodology for economic evaluationevaluation
- Adapting it to the SSA specificities Adapting it to the SSA specificities
- Carrying out the methodology on field (and Carrying out the methodology on field (and real presence real presence on field for few selected SSA) for few selected SSA)
CESSE – ULB contribution to SPICOSACarrying out of economic assessment :Carrying out of economic assessment :
b) Assistance to b) Assistance to SAF modelling SAF modelling in : in :
Integrating economic assessment methodology Integrating economic assessment methodology ((Input - Output tables…Input - Output tables…) in the systemic model ) in the systemic model EXTENDEXTEND) )
Conclusions
Interdisciplinary approach is a must! Same language/Terminology:
Between different partners Scientific team & stakeholders
Good data base is fundamental Importance of stakeholders (private, institutes,
etc.) Concrete problem formulation Data delivery Expertise Valuation
Visualisation of results (GIS maps, models) Dissemination to public (awareness; language)
Socio-economic impact: challenges Other important players:
Commercial fisheries and recreational anglers Tourism New developments: LNG tankers, offshore
energy, mariculture, harbour expansion Demography (older population)
Other important impacts of users: Mobility Ballast water Invasive species Climate change Cumulative impacts
Socio-economic impact: challenges (2) Problem formulation: Tackling problems of public
concern Improving communication with private sector Improving communication with policy
Methodological: Good data base with relevant parameters Accessible quality data Quantification of impacts (modelling)
Valuation of non-use values of the BPNS: Contingent Valuation method (Willingness to pay) Other methodologies?
Socio-economic impact: challenges (3) Broader scale:
Sea/coastal/hinterland interface Border-crossing problems: climate change,
cumulative effects, etc. Cooperation with neighbouring countries (Nl,
En, Fr) Data input Methodology Integrated results
European level (e.g. Spicosa)
Socio-economic impact: challenges (4) Policy instruments
Spatial planning (European scale) Integrated decision models (Balans, Climar,
…) Coordinating institutes
Need for innovative and flexible research
Green paper
The issue on how quality of life in coastal regions of Europe can be maintained, while continuing to develop sustainable income and jobs? Development inevitably brings with it pressures on space and the environment. It requires improvements in accessibility to, and internal mobility within, coastal zones, in particular small islands, through transport infrastructure improvements. It also calls for the supply of general interest services (health, education, water and energy supply, telecommunications, postal services, waste water and waste treatment) in order to improve the quality of life in coastal zones, in particular during peak tourist seasons
Green paper (2)
Quality of life
Seasonal variation: tourist peak Positive: jobs but temporarily Negative: conflicts, facilities (WTP, water), …
Valuation Parameters
Place to live & work Market value EconomicalSocial
Leisure & tourism Market and non-market value
Econ. / soc.Other
Intrinsic value coast & sea
Non-market value CVMWillingness to pay
Good indicator Database:Coastal zone
(kustbarometer)Marine zone
Integration between zones
Green paper (3)
Possible solutions to improve quality of life Spatial planning larger scale Diversification of tourism
Connection sea/coast/hinterland Needs: families, older people, etc.
Sustainable fisheries New techniques Alternatives Conflict with anglers at sea
Legal & policy instruments Control (safety, pollution) Integration WFD, Maritime strategy, etc. Coordinating institute to manage integration
Sustainable income and jobs
Decrease pressure on environment
Improve quality of life