Clare ShineVice-President and Chief Program Officer
Sustainability, Mindsets & Media
Salzburg Academy on Media and Global Change
21 July 2015
2https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Gorilla_Conservation_Programme
3
http://bgr.com/2015/07/03/dolphin-attack-rare-accident/
4
http://time.com/2894694/massimo-sestini-boat-italy-migrants-mare-nostrum-risk-europe/
5
http://matthewniederhauser.com/research/2011/03/30/counterfeit-paradises-windows-on-the-world/
Competition… against what and who?
Post-2015 Planet: the need for new collaborative paradigms
7
http://21centurygreengoddess.blogspot.com/2011/01/definition-day-sustainability.html
SUSTAINABILITY
Salzburg Global: Program Concentrations 2016-2018
8
JUSTICE
IMAGINATION
Conflict Transformation
Urban Transformation
Human Transformation
Program Concentrations 2016-2018
9
Urban Transformation
Pictures: WBCSD Urban Infrastructure Initiative, courtesy of Perry Heijne
“SPEED and
THE CITY:Can Humans
Keep Up?”
Salzburg Global Seminar Board Meeting
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi
Sources- “World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision”, UN, 2013; "Atlas of World Population History," McEvedy, Colin and Richard Jones, 1978
World population has reached its first billion around 1804. In the last 2 centuries , the next 6 billions have been reached and another 4 will be delivered by the end of this century. However, population growth is starting to slow down.. The annual population growth between the 3rd billion and the 7th billion was 1.7% while the expected growth from now till 2100 will be 0.5%. Population growth will be driven mainly by Asia and Africa which will represent 51% and 29% respectively by 2062 of total global population
THE WORLD POPULATION WILL THE WORLD POPULATION WILL THE WORLD POPULATION WILL THE WORLD POPULATION WILL
REACH 8 BILLION by 2024REACH 8 BILLION by 2024REACH 8 BILLION by 2024REACH 8 BILLION by 2024, , , , 12 years
since its last billion, but increasing at a
decreasing rate
Global Population(In Billions, CE 1-2100)
Years Taken to Reach
127
31
Population Billions by Region (1804 – 2062)
1975
(59%)
(10%)
(17%) (8%)(5%)(1%)
2012
(60%)
(15%)
(10%)(9%)(1%)(5%)
1804
(21.8%)
(9%) (3%) (2%)(0.2%)
(64%)Asia
Africa
Europe
Latin America
North America
Oceania
2062
(51%)
(29%) (7%)
(8%) (4%)(1%)
15
12
12
13
12
16
22
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200
10
11
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2 Billion
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi
WESTERN AFRICA, WESTERN AFRICA, WESTERN AFRICA, WESTERN AFRICA,
EASTERN AFRICA EASTERN AFRICA EASTERN AFRICA EASTERN AFRICA
AND MIDDLE AFRICA AND MIDDLE AFRICA AND MIDDLE AFRICA AND MIDDLE AFRICA
ARE EXPECTED TO ARE EXPECTED TO ARE EXPECTED TO ARE EXPECTED TO
POST THE HIGHEST POST THE HIGHEST POST THE HIGHEST POST THE HIGHEST
GROWTH RATES, GROWTH RATES, GROWTH RATES, GROWTH RATES,
REACHING 500%REACHING 500%REACHING 500%REACHING 500%
With a projected growth of 1.3 billion between now and 2050, Africa will add more population than any world region. Virtually all of that growth will be in sub-Saharan Africa, the region’s poorest
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Rural
Urban
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
Growth in Urban vs Rural Population Globally (In Millions, 1950-2050)
Forecast
Additional Urban Population
every week(In Millions)
5.3 6.4 7.7 10.3 10.9 13.8 14.8 13.9 12.6 11.9
Source: “World Urbanization Prospects”, United Nations, 2014
BY 2050, TWO THIRDS OF BY 2050, TWO THIRDS OF BY 2050, TWO THIRDS OF BY 2050, TWO THIRDS OF
GLOBAL POPULATION WILL BE GLOBAL POPULATION WILL BE GLOBAL POPULATION WILL BE GLOBAL POPULATION WILL BE
LIVING IN URBAN AREASLIVING IN URBAN AREASLIVING IN URBAN AREASLIVING IN URBAN AREAS
The global urban population surpassed the rural one in 2009/2010. However, with this pace of growth it is likely that by 2050, the urban population will be double that of the rural and accounting for two thirds of global population
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi
TOTAL INFRASTRUCTURE TOTAL INFRASTRUCTURE TOTAL INFRASTRUCTURE TOTAL INFRASTRUCTURE
SPENDING WILL RISE TO US$ 9 SPENDING WILL RISE TO US$ 9 SPENDING WILL RISE TO US$ 9 SPENDING WILL RISE TO US$ 9
TRILLION BY 2025 TRILLION BY 2025 TRILLION BY 2025 TRILLION BY 2025 driven by Asia’s
fast urbanization- particularly China’s
Source - Upper Chart: “Capital Project and Infrastructure Spending: Outlook to 2025”, PWC, 2012Source - Lower Chart: National Bureau of Statistics China; World Bank Development Indicators
With the rapid urbanization, infrastructure spending is likely to go up as new cities are being built. In the past 20 years, China has built on its own a residential space that is equivalent between 1985 and 2011 to the land area of the Netherlands, or in 2011 alone, more residential floor space than the entire residential building stock in Australia. According to research presented by the Financial Times, China’s main demographic segment in demand of housing (25-49) will start declining soon just in time when a huge segment of new housing comes to market
Infrastructure Spending as % of Global Infrastructu re Spending(In %, 2008 – 2012)
23% 20% 20%
18%15% 13%
7%
6% 6%
38%45% 46%
7% 7% 7%
5%5%5%Middle East
North America
Europe
FSU/CEE
Asia-Pacific
South America
Africa
2012
3%
2010
2%
2008
2%Global Infrastructure Spending
USD9 Trillion
USD9 Trillion
USD 4 Trillion
USD 4 Trillion
20252012
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi
THE INCREASE IN SLUMS THE INCREASE IN SLUMS THE INCREASE IN SLUMS THE INCREASE IN SLUMS
PARTICULARLY IN THE DENSE AREAS PARTICULARLY IN THE DENSE AREAS PARTICULARLY IN THE DENSE AREAS PARTICULARLY IN THE DENSE AREAS
AROUND LARGE MEGACITIES WILL AROUND LARGE MEGACITIES WILL AROUND LARGE MEGACITIES WILL AROUND LARGE MEGACITIES WILL
CAUSE MORE STRESS ON URBAN CAUSE MORE STRESS ON URBAN CAUSE MORE STRESS ON URBAN CAUSE MORE STRESS ON URBAN
POPULATIONPOPULATIONPOPULATIONPOPULATION
URBANIZATION
The proportion of the world’s urban population living in slums has fallen from nearly 40% a decade ago to less than a third today. But the absolute number of slum dwellers around the world is still rising. High population density around slums (and megacities) especially in poorer areas are a source of concern
Population Density by Country and Top 10 Cities (In People per Square Kilometer, 2011 and 2013)
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi
THE GLOBAL POPULATION USES THE GLOBAL POPULATION USES THE GLOBAL POPULATION USES THE GLOBAL POPULATION USES
RESOURCES BEYOND ITS MEANS RESOURCES BEYOND ITS MEANS RESOURCES BEYOND ITS MEANS RESOURCES BEYOND ITS MEANS which puts further pressure on the global
ecology
The threshold of what Earth can sustainably provide was reached in 1976. Currently, we are using the equivalent of over 1.5 Earths—in other words, exceeding what nature can provide by more than half. It is predicted that if the world continues on that pace that we would need almost 3 earths by 2050. Which means it will take the earth 3 years then to regenerate what has been used in one year
Global Ecological Footprint(In Number of Earths Needed, 1961 - 2050)
Source- Global Footprint Network
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1961
1990
1970
1980
2050
2040
2030
2020
2007
2000
2010
Global Biocapacity=1 Earth
Above the World’s Biocapacity
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi
THE RAPID GROWTH OF THE RAPID GROWTH OF THE RAPID GROWTH OF THE RAPID GROWTH OF
MEGACITIES HAS POSED MAJOR MEGACITIES HAS POSED MAJOR MEGACITIES HAS POSED MAJOR MEGACITIES HAS POSED MAJOR
WATER PLANNING AND WATER PLANNING AND WATER PLANNING AND WATER PLANNING AND
MANAGEMENT CHALLANGESMANAGEMENT CHALLANGESMANAGEMENT CHALLANGESMANAGEMENT CHALLANGES
The rise of megacities is not a new phenomenon as much of the developed cities such as London and New York started to grow in the nineteenth century. However, the rate of growth of megacities today is much faster than in the past and the rise of megacities has not been gradual like in the developed world. This puts further pressure on the availability and quality of water in many of the new developing world cities
Source: “Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2030”, Roland Berger, 2014
Challenges of Megacities in Water Supply(In % and In Relevant Metrics, Latest Available Data)
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi
Note: (1) Water Scarcity refers to more than 40% of population living in water short areas while Water Stress refers to 20%-40% of population living in water short areasSource: “Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2030”, Roland Berger, 2014 (based on IFPRI and Veolia)
Water scarcity is on the rise with more than half of the global population set to be living in water stressed and water scarce areas. The nature of water insecurity varies by region where in the MENA region it is mostly driven by physical scarcity while in parts of Africa it is mostly economic. Irrespective of its nature, water security is likely to impact economic activity dramatically particularly given its prevalence across the world’s largest and most populous economies
BY 2050, 52% OF THE WORLD’S BY 2050, 52% OF THE WORLD’S BY 2050, 52% OF THE WORLD’S BY 2050, 52% OF THE WORLD’S
POPULATION WILL BE LIVING IN POPULATION WILL BE LIVING IN POPULATION WILL BE LIVING IN POPULATION WILL BE LIVING IN
WATER SCARCITYWATER SCARCITYWATER SCARCITYWATER SCARCITY putting further strain on
economic development
Population and GDP Generation in Water Stressed Are as(In % of Total, 2010 and 2050)
36%
52%
18%
16%
46%
32%
Water Stress(1)
Water Scarcity(1)
2050
2010
No Stress
22%
45%
19%
25%
59%
30%
2010
No Stress
Water Stress
Water Scarcity
2050
Share of People Living in Water Short Areas Share of GDP Generated in Water Short Regions
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi
World Population, Individuals using the Internet an d Global Connected Devices Sold over Time(In Billions of People, 2005-2014 and In Billion Un its, 2008-2014)
PEOPLE, PROCESSES, DATA AND PEOPLE, PROCESSES, DATA AND PEOPLE, PROCESSES, DATA AND PEOPLE, PROCESSES, DATA AND
THINGS ARE INCREASINGLY BEING THINGS ARE INCREASINGLY BEING THINGS ARE INCREASINGLY BEING THINGS ARE INCREASINGLY BEING
CONNECTED CONNECTED CONNECTED CONNECTED making “the Internet of
things” a new revolutionizing force
The Internet has revolutionized the way people connect with each other driving growth in most economies. The ability to connect sensors to objects or things on the Internet, to extract and analyze growing amounts of data, and then to use that analysis in both automated and non-automated processes promises enormous potential for further economic growth
Note: (1) Date for 2014 Population estimates is based on August 2014 data as recorded by the Population Research BureauSources: World Bank Development Indicators; ITU Statistics; Statista; Population Research Bureau; “Connectivity in Consumer, Mobile & IT Market Tracker”, IHS, 2014
Internet Penetration (In %)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
7.5
6.0
4.5
3.0
1.5
0.0
Individuals Using the Internet
World Population
Global Connected Device Sales
6.2
7.2(1)
2.9
5.8
7.1
2.7
7.0
2.52.3
7.0
2.3
1.9
6.9
2.0
1.5
6.8
1.8
1.5
6.7
1.6
6.6
1.4
6.6
1.2
6.5
1.0
17.6 20.6 23.1 25.6 29.4 32.5 35.5 37.9 40.415.8
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi
SMART CITIES’ MAIN INVESTMENTS SMART CITIES’ MAIN INVESTMENTS SMART CITIES’ MAIN INVESTMENTS SMART CITIES’ MAIN INVESTMENTS
WILL BE IN GOVERNANCE, WILL BE IN GOVERNANCE, WILL BE IN GOVERNANCE, WILL BE IN GOVERNANCE,
EDUCATION AND ENERGY EDUCATION AND ENERGY EDUCATION AND ENERGY EDUCATION AND ENERGY with focus on
eLearning and sustainability
Smart cities will create huge business opportunities for the development of infrastructure, education, healthcare, energy, security, mobility and buildings that are smart and sustainable. The value of this market will reach US$1.5 Trillion by 2020
Smart City Illustration
SMARTPHONES DETECTION
SMART ROADS
VEHICLE AUTO-DIAGNOSIS
TRAFFIC CONGESTION SMART LIGHTING
SMART GRID BUILDING MANAGER
THERMAL AND ELECTRICAL STORAGE
RENEWABLE ENERGY
SMART HOME
WASTE MANAGEMENT
Note: (1) Smart City Market Value is measured by the valuation of the smart city technologies and associated products and servicesSource- Upper Chart: “World’s Top Global Mega Trends to 2025 and Implications to Business, Society and Cultures”, Frost & Sullivan, 2012 Source - Lower Chart: Literature Review Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi
THE MAIN SHARING ECONOMY THE MAIN SHARING ECONOMY THE MAIN SHARING ECONOMY THE MAIN SHARING ECONOMY
SECTORS WILL GROW MUCH FASTER SECTORS WILL GROW MUCH FASTER SECTORS WILL GROW MUCH FASTER SECTORS WILL GROW MUCH FASTER
THAN THE RATE OF TRADITIONAL THAN THE RATE OF TRADITIONAL THAN THE RATE OF TRADITIONAL THAN THE RATE OF TRADITIONAL
RENTAL RENTAL RENTAL RENTAL
SECTORS SECTORS SECTORS SECTORS particularly car and house rental
Sharing economy businesses based on a “peer-to-peer” (P2P) model are increasingly replacing traditional markets, with top performers attracting subscribers and funding at exponential rates.-thus taking away business from traditional models as well as creating new business. While traditional rental industries are unlikely to disappear in the foreseeable future, their growth will be relatively sluggish – for example, while the car rental market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2% through 2025, the car sharing market will grow over 11 times faster
Leading Sharing Economy Enterprises Impacting Tradi tional Business(All Statistics Latest Available, 2014)
Source – Top Chart: “The Sharing Economy: Sizing the Revenue Opportunity,” PwC, 2014Sources – Bottom Chart: Company websites, Various
Spinlister100+ countries
(2012)
Kickstarter+US$ 1.7 billion
pledges(Latest Available
Data)
DogVacay+20,000 listed pet
sitters(2011)
Uber 260 cities Served(2010)
Vinted+14 million clothes
listings(2008)
Airbnb+37 million
nights stayed (2008)
TaskRabbit1.25 million joiners
2013 (2008)
LiquidSpace+16,000 user companies
(2010)
Elance2.5 million employments
(1999)
RelayRides+2,300 cities
served (2010)
Netflix57.4 million subscribers
(1997)
Streetbank+61,700 things
shared(2010)
Skillshare+1,000 classes
(2010)
xx(xx)
CompanyYear Founded
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi
Cities of the Future: Crossing Boundaries
social and environmental
Left and centre images: www.kateraworth.com / doughnuteconomics.org
mindsets& behaviors
geopolitical & normative
A safe and
just space
for
humanity
www.kateraworth.com / doughnuteconomics.org
www.kateraworth.com / doughnuteconomics.org