Worldwide cellular users will increase from 907 million at the end of 2001 to 1.97 billion at the end of 2007.
Worldwide cellular penetration is forecast to reach 31% by 2006, up from 18% at the start of 2002.
W. European cellular user numbers will continue to slow dramatically post 2003, while N. America will continue to move steadily towards near-saturation within five years.
The lesser developed wireless regions of S. E. Asia, Central and Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe will all achieve cellular penetration in the 25-30% range by 2007, up from 14-19% at the start of 2002.
The current global market supporting GSM, CDMA, TDMA, PDC and a variety of analogue systems will consolidate around GSM/W-CDMA and CDMAOne/CDMA2000 systems, with the GSM camp remaining dominant overall
Accounting for 65% of cellular users at the start of 2002, GSM currently dominates the cellular industry. By the end of 2007, GSM/W-CDMA technologies will account for 77% of cellular users worldwide.
CDMA will enjoy strong growth throughout the forecast period, consistently adding 45-55 million new users per annum between 2003 and 2007. By the end of 2007 there will be almost 400 million CDMA users worldwide.
CDMA will control a disproportionate share of the 3G market. By the end of 2002, 22% of CDMA users will have a CDMA2000 1x or 1xEV 3G terminal, compared with just 0.2% of GSM users. By the end of 2007, 90% of CDMA users will have a CDMA2000 1x or 1xEV 3G
GSM-based 3G systems will only begin to show significant subscriber growth after 2004, though with almost 390 million W-CDMA and TD-SCDMA users by the end of 2007, CDMA2000 3G users will still account for more than half of all 3G users worldwide.
Key point Conclusions
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
1600.0
1800.0
2000.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
N America W EuropeS.E Asia CALAC/E Europe Rest of WorldTotal
Worldwide Users by Region
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
N America W EuropeS.E Asia CALAC/ E Europe Rest of WorldWorldwide
Penetration
Worldwide Mobile Users and Penetration
Source: Strategy Analytics
Mobile Subscriber Growth Rate, 2000-2001
Subscriber Additions 1998-2001
Source: Pyramid Research
Asia Mobile Market
LatentPotential
AcceleratedGrowth
Maturation
VietnamMalaysiaPhilippinesThailandChina
Hong KongJapanKoreaTaiwanSingapore
IndiaIndonesia
What happened in 2000-2001 in Asia
Market Polarization and Changing Business Emphasis
Su
bscrib
er
Ad
ditio
ns
BusinessEmphasis
CustomerAcquisition
CustomerRetention
Vietnam
India
ThailandChina
Malaysia
Philippines
JapanTaiwan
Korea
Singapore
Hong Kong
Annual Subscriber Additions 1998-2006
Potential Mobile Market
Source: Pyramid Research
SystemsIntegrators
AndVARS
Infra-StructurePlayers
CoreApplicationProviders
(ISVs)
WirelessEnablingPlatform
AndSoftwareVendors
NetworkOperators
BusinessContent
DevicePlayers
Cap GemenlEDSIBMComputerAMS
SunCiscoIBMOracleNokiaEriccsonMotorola
MicrosoftSAPIMB/LotusSeibelPeopleSoftSalesForce.net
OpenwaveAetherIBMOracleMobileSignalSoftBlackberry
VodafoneCingullarTelefonicaVerizonT-MobileOrange
DatabasesMailing ListsBloombergHooversKelly BluebookActuarial Data
SymbolCompaq/HPIBMSierraNokiaSony-Ericsson
Wireless Enterprise Value Chain
MKT FIN HR OPS PURCH OTHER
Classic Business functions
Have clearly defined needs
More sales calls/week More reach per ad Faster competitive response
Reduced Inventory JIT Delivery Least Cost Routing
Employee Access to Policies Access for Suppliers Reduced Paper Trail
Reduced Service Outages Reduced Legal Liability Etc.
How do I achive this?
PIM / Share calendars Extend price / order / inv LBS to optimize dispatch
Service outage alerts JIT Delivery Etc.
What Appls & Where?
ERP CRM SFA Office Metro Global
Horizontal Functions Categorization
MMS, 2.5G 3G Mobile Internet
SMS I-mode, 2.5G Mobile Internet
Accelerated GrowthMarkets
Mature Markets
Applications Applications
ApplicationsApplications
NextGeneration
CurrentGeneration
Technology Foundations for Non-Voice-Based Apps
Source: Pyramid Research
I-mod Usage Patterns
Source: Strategy Analytics
Source: Strategy Analytics
Porting Content to Wireless
Video Audio
FunSecurity
Beliefs &Values
Always on…Always there Location Aware
DeviceAvailability
ContentCompatibility
DeliveryCost
Winning contentWill appeal to…
What value doesMobility add?
What roadblocksAre there?
Source: Strategy Analytics
Next Generation Services
MobileTo
Mobile
TerminatedOff-Network
(i.e. LongDistance)
RoamingMonthly “BillingOn Behalf Of”
(BOBO)
ContetnPurchase& Resale
Micropayment
Fina
ncia
l Lia
bilit
y &
Cust
omer
Ser
vice
Com
plex
ity
Voice
Data/Content
Number of Value Chain Players
Carr
ier
Exp
osu
re
Source: Strategy Analytics
Source: Strategy Analytics
Events
ShoppingCenters
Universities/ CollegesSupermarkets /
Dept Stores
Nightclubs
Cinemas
Hospitals
Airports
RailwayStations Conference
Centers
Road serviceStations
Hotels
Sports venues
Restaurants
Coffee shops
Holiday venues
MuseumsLibraries
The most valuable hotspot locations are those with high public footfall and the opportunity/time and need to carry out a WLAN session.
Footfall
Time for WLAN session
WLAN Footfall Segmentation
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