Download - Second Nuclear Age
TheDynamicGlobalContext• TheoverlapofmulGplecrisesatthesameGmeiscreaGnga
significantchallengetotheUSandtheallieddemocracies.• Crisestendtobesegregatedinthepresscoverage,
analyGcalassessmentsorbythepoliGcalprocess.YetthecrisesfacingtheU.S.anditsdemocraGcalliesareinteracGveandcascading.
• WhatisthenatureofthegatheringstormfacingtheU.S.anditsdemocraGcallies?
• HowbesttodealwiththecascadingcrisesinaconnectedworldaffecGngtheviabilityofdemocraGcsocieGes?
• Andnuclearweaponsremainthekeyelementinshapingorsurvivalandsecurity.
KeyDriversofChange
• ThedisaggregaGonofEuropeinthewaveofmulGplecrises;• StrategicupheavalintheMiddleEastanditsglobalimpact;• ThecascadingimpactofChineseexpansionandRussianaggression
onafluidglobalsystem;• IranianacGonsinthewakeoftheIranianagreement,andtheir
impactonkeyalliesintheregion;• Theemergenceof21stcenturyforcesofinformaGonwarimpacGng
onthepoliGcaldebateandconsensusintheUSanditsdemocraGcallies;
• TheimpactofpoliGcalcorrectnessonavoidingtoughstrategicissues;
• Thefailureofthestrategicelitetostepuptothechallenge.
TheRulesofNuclearDeterrenceandDefenseAreChanging
• TheRussianshaveincludedtacGcalnuclearweaponswithintheconvenGonalkillchain.
• AndtheRussianshavedirectlythreatenedDenmarkwithanuclearstrikeandhavepracGcedanuclearstrikeagainstSweden.
• TheIranianshavedemonstratedthesignificantpoliGcalvalueofnearpossessionofnuclearweapons.
• ThekeyroleofChinainbothpossessingandsupporGngstateswithnuclearweapons.
• NorthKoreaposesaclearandpresentdangertotheUnitedStateswithoutaclearunderstandingofwhattheUSneedstodotostoptheiruse
MissionStatementsDefiningtheChallenge
• USAFMissionStatement– ThemissionoftheUnitedStatesAirForceistofly,fightandwin...inair,space
andcyberspace.• USNMissionStatement
– IfDeterrencefails,theNavywillconductdecisivecombatoperaGonstodefeatanyenemy
• USArmyADAMissionStatement– Army'sFieldManual44-100,themissionofAirDefenseArGlleryis"toprotect
theforceandselectedgeopoliGcalassetsfromaeriala<ack,missilea<ack,andsurveillance.
• NORK"DearLeader's"MissionStatement– TurnWashingtonandSeoulinto“flamesandashes”witha“pre-empGve
nuclearstrikeofjusGce.”• IranianReligiousLeader'sAyatollahAliKhamenei'sMissionStatemen
– AmericaissGll"TheGreatSaGn"andIsraelisa“fake”regime,andsaidtherewon’tbeanyIsraelin25yearsfromnow.
HowtheCombatCommanderSeestheChallenger
• Compareourinterview3½yearsagowithGeneralJacoby,ASA.theNORTHCOM/NORADCOMMANDER,toourmostrecentonewithAdmiralGortney,USN
• DramaGcallydifferentthreatenvironment– NowtheUSandCanadianhomelandsfacedirectthreatsfromthe10and2O’ClockVectors
• WhatdetersNorthKoreaoranynon-statenuclearactor?
• FortheCombatCommanders,thisisNOTaseminarquesGon.
Conclusion• AdmiralGortney:“Itisnotwhatisinmyheadthatma<ers;itiswhatisinhis?”
• Thereisasignificantcross-learningprocessworldwideamongthesecondnuclearageplayers.
• Arewetrappedbyourhistoricalknowledgeof“deterrence.”
• ProfessorBracken:“IftheUnitedStatesdoesn’thaveaflexible,reliablenuclearpostureitcan’tdealeffecGvelywithothercountrieswhodo.ItistheulGmatevulnerabilitythatshapesothersecuritychoices.”