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Navigating Waves of Change:
Driving Academic Improvement Through Challenging Times
Sam Howe
November 2010
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Presentation Focus
• How to build academic plans that achieve their targets
• In the midst of two waves of significant change– Rising number of economically disadvantaged children– The economic uncertainties surrounding the Great
Recession
• And, with the recognition that these waves of change vary by geographic location
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Help for These Questions
• Demographics:– How much longer will the number of economically
disadvantaged students continue to rise? – What’s the demographic profile for my incoming
kindergarten students, three years from now?
• Economics:– What’s the 3-5 year outlook for my state and local funding?– When can I bring a school budget increase or bond issue to
my community?
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Help for These Questions
• Academics:– Where can I focus my investments to get the greatest gain in
academic achievement over the next 24 months?– How do I estimate the number of students that I must place
into an intervention treatment program to reach a specific proficiency target in 3 years time?
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Annual Data Review
Curriculum Review
• Alignment between Curriculum and Tested Standards
• Alignment between Curriculum and Needs of Business/ Community
Key Academic Indicators
• Reading
• Mathematics
• Graduation & Dropouts
Leadership and School Culture
• Professional Development Needs of Academic Leaders
• 360 Degree Survey of Stakeholders regarding Leadership Practices
State & Community Review
• Demographics
• Economics
• Real Estate
• 360 Degree Survey of Community Stakeholders
Teaching Effectiveness
• Professional Development Needs of Teachers
• 360 Degree Survey of Stakeholders regarding Teaching Practices
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Demographic Trend Analysis
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Demographic Data
• American Community Survey– Annual data from 2006 through 2009– Detailed demographic data for states, counties, and major cities
(population 65,000+)– Data covers topics including population, housing, income, education,
fertility, language, and poverty– US Census Bureau web site
• Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)– US Census Bureau web site
• Brookings Institution– Metropolitan Policy Institute and Hamilton Project– Demographic research in multiple areas, including poverty, immigration,
and children– Brookings web site
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US Demographic TrendDemographic Change in Chidlren Under 18 Years of Age in US from 2006
Through 2009 in ACS Data
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
BelowPoverty
Hispanic All Under18
ELL Asian ForeignBorn
AfricanAmer
White
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Poverty for Children Under 18 in 2008
Source: SAIPE
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Poverty Challenge for Children
Source: Brookings Institution
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Demographics for Kindergarten Students
• 48 students will have attended preschool
• 46 students will be from low income families
• 23 students will be from families on public assistance
• 21 students will have moved within the past 12 months
• 21 students will be from households that speak a language other than English
• 5 students will be from linguistically isolated families
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Economic Forecast
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Economic Forecast
• Economic Data
– County and MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) forecasts: Moody’s economy.com
– County and State employment data: Bureau of Labor Statistics
– State economic forecasts: Moody’s economy.com
– Federal economic data and analysis: Brookings Institution
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Unemployment Challenge
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Unemployment Challenge
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Employment Loss in Recession
Source: Brookings Institution
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Employment Loss in Recession
Scholastic Inc. 19Source: Brookings Institution
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IL State Economic Forecast
Source: Moody’s Economy.com June 2010 Report
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Monitor Economic Challenges
• Monitor the health of top employers
• Monitor state tax revenue collection trends and pension obligations
• Monitor local real estate trends
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Educational Attainment
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Education Pipeline Challenge
Source: National Center on Education and the Economy
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High School Completion Challenge
Ohio State High School Graduation Rates
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
SY04-05 SY05-06 SY06-07 SY07-08
SPED
Econ Dis
LEP
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High School Loss Analysis
High School Student Loss AnalysisBased on District Enrollment Data
GroupGrade 9 in 2006
Grade 10 in 2007
Grade 11 in 2008
Grade 12 in 2009
Cumulative Student Loss at Grade 10
Cumulative Student Loss at Grade 11
Cumulative Student Loss at Grade 12
All 636 562 524 452 74 112 184
Estimated State & Federal Funding per Capita per Year = $3,8712006 State Average
Loss of State & Fed Funding at Grade 10
Loss of State & Fed Funding at Grade 11
Loss of State & Fed Funding at Grade 12 TOTAL
$286,454 $433,552 $712,264 $1,432,270
Estimated Annual State & Federal Funding Loss per Cohort from Grades 9-12
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Educational Attainment Challenge
Source: ACS 2009 USA data
Educational Attainment for Adults 25+ Years of Age in 2009
Percent Distribution
Median Income
Percent Below Poverty
Percent Not Employed
Percent Unemployed
Did not complete ninth grade 6.3%Did not complete high school 14.8% $18,432 25.7% 47.1% 15.2%
High school graduate (includes equivalency) 28.5% $26,140 12.5% 33.0% 10.6%
Some college, no degree 21.3% $31,906 9.0% 26.4% 8.3%Associates degree 7.5% $31,906 9.0% 26.4% 8.3%
Bachelors degree 17.6% $47,510 3.9% 18.0% 4.5%Graduate or professional degree 10.3% $62,313 3.9% 18.0% 4.5%
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Review Key Academic Performance Indicators for
Reading and Math Achievement
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Subgroup Reading Challenges
Percent of Students Reading Below Proficient on WA State Test in 2007
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
All
Econ Dis
African Amer
SPED
LEP
Asian
White
Hispanic
% Level 1
% Level 2
Number of Students Reading Below Proficient on WA State Test in 2007
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
All
Econ Dis
African Amer
SPED
LEP
Asian
White
Hispanic
# Level 1
# Level 2
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Subgroup Reading Trends
Mean Annual Percent Growth in ELA Proficiency for Grade 6-10 Students on CST from 2003 Through 2006
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Asian Hispanic Econ Dis Af-Am All White SPED ELL
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Grade Level Reading Challenges
Percent of Students Reading at Levels 1-2 on FCAT in 2007
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Grade 3
Grade 4
Grade 5
Grade 6
Grade 7
Grade 8
Grade 9
Grade 10
% L1
% L2
Number of Students Reading at Levels 1-2 on FCAT in 2007 Total = 49,443 Students
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
Grade 3
Grade 4
Grade 5
Grade 6
Grade 7
Grade 8
Grade 9
Grade 10
# L1
# L2
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Reading Challenge
Mean Annual Growth in Ohio State Reading Proficiency from 2006 Through 2009
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Grade 4 Grade 3 Grade 11 Grade 7 Grade 6 Grade 5 Grade 8 Grade 10
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School Reading ChallengePercent of Students Scoring Below Proficient on State Test
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Washington MS
Roosevelt MS
Grant MS
Lincoln MS
Revere MS
Truman MS
Jackson MS
Kennedy MS
McKinley MS
Adams MS
Hoover MS
Coolidge MS
Jefferson MS
Eisenhow er MS
ML King MS
% BB
% B
Number of Students Scoring Below Proficient on State Test Total = 8,408 Students
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Washington MS
Roosevelt MS
Grant MS
Lincoln MS
Revere MS
Truman MS
Jackson MS
Kennedy MS
McKinley MS
Adams MS
Hoover MS
Coolidge MS
Jefferson MS
Eisenhow er MS
ML King MS
# BB
# B
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Critical Mass to Move the Needle
• In __ City Schools, with 10,000 students tested
• 1% gain = moving 100 students to proficiency
• Intervention program at 25% conversion rate (1 out of every 4)
• 400 students in intervention = 100 students proficient = 1% gain
• A 5% gain = 2,000 students in intervention
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Building Blocks for Academic Improvement
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Academic Management
• Assessment Data– Screening, progress monitoring, and summative assessments for
all students – Assessments for math and reading for all students on a single
vertical scale– Growth and trajectory analyses
• Program Data– Individualized student skills data– Progress monitoring data– Usage data– Implementation fidelity data– Data that rolls up from student to class to school to district
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Academic Success
• Tiered Instruction– Tier #1: Core instruction– Tier #2: Intervention for students 1+ years below
grade level– Tier #3: Intensive intervention in foundational skills
• Human Capital– Leadership training– Job embedded teacher professional development and
in-classroom coaching for teachers delivering intervention
– Training of a cadre of coaches to build internal capacity
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Recommended Actions
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Take Action Today
• Conduct an annual data review– Review economics and demographics– Review academic indicators in reading and math– Review human capital needs of leaders and
teachers
• Use results from the annual data review to update your strategic and improvement plans
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Take Action Today
• Set up time for a free consultation to discuss your district’s data challenges
• Set the appointment through your Scholastic Account Executive
• Or, contact me…– Sam Howe– Vice President Academic Planning & Analysis– [email protected]