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SBU/BNL Climate Modeling: Grand Challenges to the BG
Minghua Zhang
With contributions from the BNL/SBU Team
Vogelmann Miller
JensenWagener
LiuDaumGuo
McGrawSchwartz
LewisChang
ReismanBhatt
Wang
Riemer
Chang
Colle
ZhangMarat K.
Lin
NY BlueNY BlueCenterCenter
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(Arguez 2007, “State of the climate in 2006”)
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IPCC 2007 Executive Summary:IPCC 2007 Executive Summary:
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Climate Modeling
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Schematic
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Regional Climate Changes Are Largely UnknownRegional Climate Changes Are Largely Unknown
The SBU/BNL Climate Grand Challenges:The SBU/BNL Climate Grand Challenges:
1. What will happen regionally?1. What will happen regionally?• ModelingModeling• MechanismsMechanisms• ImpactImpact
2. How to make the models better?2. How to make the models better?• ProcessesProcesses• Data InfusionData Infusion
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Atmospheric Modeling BackgroundAtmospheric Modeling Background
1950s - : Beginning (Charney and von Neumann)
“To von Neumann, meteorology stood the most to gain from high speed computation”
1960-1990s: Expansion Phase
1990- Consolidation and Application
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Climate modeling infrastructure in the US
CCSMUniversitiesDOE LabsPrivate Industries
Other Governmental LabsNASA: GSFC & GISSNOAA: GFDL & NCEPNAVY: ONR
CMMAP- CSU NSF STC
Abroad: UKMO, MPI, LMD, Japan, CCC, IAP…
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The CCSM Infrastructure(http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu)
Models Organized and Managed by Working Groups (NCAR, Univ., Industries)
AtmosphereOceanLandSea IceChemistry
Coupler
CCSM Organized by Steering Committee and WG co-Chairs
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Computational Resource Allocations:
Climate Simulation Laboratory (CSL)
Multi-agency computing facility for the Global Change Science Program of the United States
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The DilemmaThe Dilemma
• Funding mechanism is not conducive Funding mechanism is not conducive to exploit new computing capabilityto exploit new computing capability
• Synergy of climate science & Synergy of climate science & computational science has been computational science has been difficultdifficult
This is also true for the Earth SimulatorThis is also true for the Earth Simulator
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Proposal from the CCSM Atmospheric WG to CSL for 2007
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The SBU/BNL Uniqueness:The SBU/BNL Uniqueness:
1.1. Bring climate scientists directly to the front of Bring climate scientists directly to the front of the NY Blue (Need IBM Help)the NY Blue (Need IBM Help)
2.2. Attack very specific problems in areas of Attack very specific problems in areas of existing strengthexisting strength
3.3. Have clearly defined goals and results to Have clearly defined goals and results to deliver deliver
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The TeamThe Team
Vogelmann Miller
JensenWagener
LiuDaumGuo
McGrawSchwartz
LewisChang
ReismanBhatt
Wang
Riemer
Chang
Colle
ZhangMarat K.
Lin
NY BlueNY BlueCenterCenter
Blue = BNLBlue = BNL Red = SBURed = SBU
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The Three Themes:The Three Themes:
1.1. Regional Climate Change and Energy Regional Climate Change and Energy ModelingModeling
2.2. Outstanding Scientific ProblemsOutstanding Scientific Problems
3.3. Infusion of Data into ModelsInfusion of Data into Models
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Regional Climate Change and Energy ModelingRegional Climate Change and Energy Modeling
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• MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation), an integrated energy, environment and economic model, examines market potential for energy technologies over a short-, medium- and long-term horizon under alternative policy scenarios within the entire energy system.
• Developed at BNL in 1970s, continuously updated/validated by the user community and used by more than 100 institutions in 55 countries
Global warming mitigation strategies with regional climate change as input
Regional Climate Change and Energy ModelingRegional Climate Change and Energy Modeling
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Outstanding ProblemsOutstanding Problems
(106 km)2
(105 km)2
(104 km)2
(103 km)2
(102 km)2
(101 km)2
(1 km)2Mo
del
Do
mai
n S
ize
Increasing computer power
GC
M
WRF
Microphysics
GC
RM
LES
DNS
CRM
Model Grid Size
(106 km)2
(105 km)2
(104 km)2
(103 km)2
(102 km)2
(101 km)2
(1 km)2Mo
del
Do
mai
n S
ize
Increasing computer power
GC
M
WRF
Microphysics
GC
RM
LES
DNS
CRM
(106 km)2
(105 km)2
(104 km)2
(103 km)2
(102 km)2
(101 km)2
(1 km)2Mo
del
Do
mai
n S
ize
(106 km)2
(105 km)2
(104 km)2
(103 km)2
(102 km)2
(101 km)2
(1 km)2Mo
del
Do
mai
n S
ize
(106 km)2
(105 km)2
(104 km)2
(103 km)2
(102 km)2
(101 km)2
(1 km)2Mo
del
Do
mai
n S
ize
Increasing computer power
GC
M
WRF
Microphysics
GC
RM
LES
DNS
CRM
Increasing computer power
GC
M
WRF
Microphysics
GC
RM
LES
DNS
CRM
Model Grid Size
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Infusion of Data Into ModelsInfusion of Data Into Models
BNL Unique Strength in Radar and Satellite Measurements
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The SBU/BNL Uniqueness:The SBU/BNL Uniqueness:
1.1. Bring climate scientists directly to the front of Bring climate scientists directly to the front of the NY Blue (Need IBM Help)the NY Blue (Need IBM Help)
2.2. Attack very specific problems in areas of Attack very specific problems in areas of existing strengthexisting strength
3.3. Have clearly defined goals and results to Have clearly defined goals and results to deliver deliver