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Sandy and the Big “Climate Change” Picture
Nickitas Georgas1
1Stevens Institute of Technology
Philip Orton1, Penelope Howell2, Vincent Saba3, Alan Blumberg1, Larry Yin1
With contributions from Scott Glenn4, John Manderson5, Josh Kohut4 and collaborators
AP PHOTO/CHARLES SYKES
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Observed global changes in extremes (since 1950) consistent with global
warming Special Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2012) • “It is likely that anthropogenic influences have led to warming of extreme
daily minimum and maximum temperatures at the global scale.” • “It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic influence on increasing
extreme coastal high water due to an increase in mean sea level.” • “There is medium confidence that anthropogenic influences have
contributed to intensification of extreme precipitation at the global scale.” Increased confidence for North American downpours.
But also: • Medium confidence that heat waves have increased in frequency and
duration • Our extratropical Nor’Easters tracks have started moving further north • Low confidence in any observed long-term (i.e., 40 years or more)
increases in tropical cyclone activity (i.e., intensity, frequency, duration), after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.
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IPCC World Economic Scenarios
B1: Convergent, global, sustainable, service-oriented.
A1B: Converging, balanced energy, more efficient technology.
A2: Fragmented, self-oriented, growing population.
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The effect on global temperatures
1.8
2.8 3.4
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SST increase between 1-3˚C by 2100
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• Average tropical cyclone maximum wind speed is likely to increase in the North Atlantic Hurricane basin.
• It is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged.
IPCC 2012
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NOAA Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment: “We have very high confidence (>9 in 10 chance) that global mean sea level will rise at least 0.2 meters (8 inches) and no more than 2.0 meters (6.6 feet) by 2100.”
NOAA 2012
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NOAA 2012
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But for Relative SLR: + ~7” VLM in NE US + ~9” weakening AMOC effect (A1B) => > 1ft more by 2100
NOAA 2012
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Global: Ice Sheet Loss and Ocean Warming Mid-Atlantic: Global + Subsidence + Changes in North Atlantic Circulation
1854-2006 average RSLR
NOAA 2012
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Potential Climate Effects on Sandy • Sallinger et al (2012) reports that the weakening of
AMOC predicted by Yin et al (2010) is already having an impact in accelerating SLR rates in the Mid-Atlantic “Hot Spot”
• Part of the 5°F East Coast SST anomaly may have been due to manmade global warming.
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Integrated system
of observing sensors
and forecast models TO OBSERVE TO PREDICT TO COMMUNICATE Weather Currents for transport Flooding/Groundings Waves Water Quality 1967 2011
NYHOPS: New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System
Davidson Laboratory Ocean Modeling and Forecasting
+ + Real time Observations
External data and models
Distributed Inflows and Effluents
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What if Sandy had come during HW at UER/WLIS?
A scary thought for UER and LIS!
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Comparison of Sandy and Sandy@UER-HW flooding to the FEMA ABFEs.
SIT April 2013
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Flooding at Westchester Creek Mouth
Sandy <1% (100yr) < “SandyHW” < 0.2% (500yr)
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Irene and
Sandy
=
TC Sandene?
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Sandy on Steroids (Sandy with Irene’s SST)
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Long Island Sound, Sandy, Climate Change, and the multiples of 3 (feet)
And so on, beyond 2100.
6 x 3 = 18ft If in 2100, under high SLR scenario: ~18.6ft MHHW
5 x 3 = 15ft If in 2100, under median SLR scenario: ~15.6ft MHHW
4 x 3 = 12ft If with 8˚ warmer, Irene SST: ~12.0ft MHHW
3 x 3 = 9ft If at previous high tide: ~10.0ft MHHW
2 x 3 = 6ft Peak Observed level during Sandy: ~6.5ft MHHW
At King’s Point, Western Long Island Sound
MHHW
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Sound water* overtops the USACE hurricane barrier. Stamford suffers a 1938 or 1944. (50% more people).
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Storm Climatology plus 1m SLR Changes: North Atlantic Ocean
Sandy
Lin et al. 2012
As SLR happens, flooding like Sandy’s are expected to become more frequent. By 2050, the US population that will be exposed to inundation due to an 1/100 year storm will double to nearly 9 million people
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Millstone Power Plant Intake Water Temperature 1976-2011 Annual Mean (0C)
What about something closer? Like LIS. Ack.: Howell
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NULL
Ship
Bottom
temperature
Bottom
complexity
Solar
elevation “Upwelling”
Sediment daylight
Butterfish Habitat Model 2.0
Combined fisherman & scientist model
Ack.: Manderson
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Analyzing History to Project and Manage the Future.
Simulating the effects of climate on Long Island Sound
Physical Environment and Living Marine Resources.
PIs: Georgas, Saba, Howell, Orton, Blumberg
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Howell and Auster (2012)
…and explore links between habitat changes, climate, and LMR regime shifts
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…and then simulate the LIS ecoscape over the course of this century by coupling NYHOPS to IPCC-class global climate
models from GFDL to inform management and adaptation.
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Thank You! Nickitas: [email protected]