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Sex, Neuroscience, and Walkable Urbanism
Jeffrey TumlinRail~VolutionSeptember 22, 2014
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Dallas Morning News http://www.dallasnews.com/incoming/20111016-highfive_main.jpg.ece/BINARY/w620x413/HighFive_MAIN.jpg
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Dallas Morning News http://www.dallasnews.com/news/transportation/20121125-plan-ahead-then-navigate-lbj-freeway-construction.ece
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A strong conviction that something must be done
is the parent of many bad measures
Daniel Webster
Nelso
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Nelso
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Nelso
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Object Thinking
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Systems Thinking
Nelso
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Systems Thinking
Source: Systems-Thinking.orgSource: systemsthinking.org
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1985
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14%
All slides, Centers for Disease Control
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1986
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1987
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1988
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1989
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1990
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1991
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1992
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1993
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1994
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1995
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1996
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1997
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19% 20-24%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1998
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19% 20-24%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1999
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19% 20-24%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2000
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19% 20-24%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2001
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19% 20-24% 25-29%
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(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2002
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19% 20-24% 25-29%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2003
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19% 20-24% 25-29%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2004
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19% 20-24% 25-29%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2005
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19% 20-24% 25-29% ≥30%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2006
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19% 20-24% 25-29% ≥30%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2007
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19% 20-24% 25-29% ≥30%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2008
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19% 20-24% 25-29% ≥30%
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Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2009
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10-14% 15-19% 20-24% 25-29% ≥30%
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Source: http://teachingmedialiteracy.pbworks.com/AnalyzingPrintAds
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Image: A Tale of a Few Cities: How Sprawl Affects Your Waistline, By Chris Woolston, Consumer Health Interactive
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Image source: Dan Burden
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Image source: Dan Burden
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Image source: Diabetes Daily
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Mixed message?
Image source: Carbolic Smokeball
Image source: Diabetes Daily
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1. Measure What Matters
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Level of Service A
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Level of Service F
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Traffic engineer: F A
Photo: http://www.partyearth.com/boston/festivals/berklee-beantown-jazz-festival-1/the-2013-berklee-beantown-jazz-festival-1/
Photo: John Welch, http://thettablog.blogspot.com/2010/05/boston-may-22-noon-very-bright.html
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Traffic engineer: F AA FEconomist:
Photo: http://www.partyearth.com/boston/festivals/berklee-beantown-jazz-festival-1/the-2013-berklee-beantown-jazz-festival-1/
Photo: John Welch, http://thettablog.blogspot.com/2010/05/boston-may-22-noon-very-bright.html
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2. Use the Right Tools, and Use them Correctly
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“All models are wrong, but some are useful.”
George E. P. Box,
Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces (1987)
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Induced and Latent Demand
Congestion
WidenRoadway
Faster Driving
More PeopleDrive
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Despite recovery, driving rates continue to decline since peak in 2005
1997
Peak: 2005
2014
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Source: Zipcar Annual Millennial Study, February 2013. http://www.slideshare.net/Zipcar_Inc/millennial-slide-share-final-16812323
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Source: Zipcar Annual Millennial Study, February 2013. http://www.slideshare.net/Zipcar_Inc/millennial-slide-share-final-16812323
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The rhetoric hasn’t changed since the simplistic choices of 1957
Source: Dallas Fort Worth Freeways: Texas Sized Ambition, by Oscar Slotboom. Dfwfreeways.com
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3. Put the Needs of Daily Life within Walking
Distance
…and make the walk delightful
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4. Make Cycling Safe and Pleasant for All Ages
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83
Source: Roger Geller
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84
Interested but ConcernedNot attracted by bike lanesNot comfortable in trafficWill ride in low-volume, low-speed conditions (boulevards, off-street)
Enthused & ConfidentComfortable in traffic with appropriate facilitiesPrefer shorter trip distances
No way No How
Strong & FearlessWill ride regardless of facilitiesTrip distance not an issue
Source: City of Portland Survey
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5. Make Transit Fast, Frequent, Reliable
and Dignified
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Transit is fast, frequent, reliable and dignified
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6. Adopt the Right Street Design Manual
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7. Be Smart About Parking
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Smart Meters
92
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Smart Technology
93
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Right Price
94
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Right Time
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Invest Revenue
96
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Unbundle and Share
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SchoolShop
Play Work
PP
P
PPP
TTTTTTT T TT
TT
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Mixed Use, Park Once District
School
Work
Play
Shop
P
TT
Results:
• <½ the parking
• <½ the land area
• ¼ the arterial trips
• 1/6th the arterial turning movements
• <¼ the vehicle miles traveled
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8. Create a New Vision
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Source: http://remove-your-crown.tumblr.com/
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It’s not sustainable if it’s not beautiful
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NELSON\NYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES © 2013
Jeffrey Tumlin116 New Montgomery Street, Suite 500
San Francisco CA 94105415-284-1544
[email protected]@jeffreytumlin
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For More Information
Jeffrey Tumlin
Mobility Accessibility Sustainability
116 New Montgomery St, Ste 500San Francisco, CA 94103
Tel: 415-284-1544
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