Service robots – business perspectives Asociación Española de Robótica y Automatización de las Tecnologías de la Producción (AER-ATP)
Claus Risager, Head of Centre, Ph.D.
Danish Technological Institute, Centre for Robot Technology
Forskerparken 10, DK-5230 Odense M, +45 72 20 39 85
[email protected], www.dti.dk/robot
Robotics and Our Future a foresight
Robotic systems are going to be
everywhere in our lives
Robotics is a top 5 growth factor of this century
Robotic systems will be the basis for our welfare and well being - 2010’s, AGVs, networked - 2020’s, manipulation, AI - 2030’s, artificial life (non-biol.) - 2040’s, rise of the Cyborgs
Robotics is a major business segment!
DTI, Danish Technological Institute Centre for Robot Technology
Established in 1906 ~1.000 employees in multiple domains Protector – HM Queen Margrethe II
Main supplier of specialist knowledge in DK Consultancy, development, training, testing,
implementing and supporting our clients 10.000+ clients annually
~50 robot experts in DK in Odense Robotic-innovation that changes your world!
End-users are at the Center of our work! 15-16.000 users per year 1.100 m2 labs (new in 2010)
Health Care & Welfare
- key segment for our mission CareLab® / CareNet® bundle our services!
Danish Technological Institute (DTI) Locations
Polen
Hirtshals
Aarhus
Kolding Odense
Taastrup
Göteborg
Karlskrona
Warszawa
Jyllinge Roskilde
Trend #1: The double-demographic challenge
More elderly, more chronic sick Fewer in the work force Service level expectations increase Globalisation, low productivity and
minimal growth
Increased pressure on national budgets
Either cut-downs or lower quality The money has to last longer!
From agriculture, over industry
to service-/knowledge society
Nominal GDP sector composition, 2010 (in %)
Source: The World Bank
Trend #1: The double-demographic challenge
A global and natural phenomenon
A major course for economic and
welfare stagnation!
Nominal GDP sector composition, 2010 (in %)
Country Nominal
GDP Agriculture Industry Services
World 62,909,274 5.7% 30.7% 63.6%
European Union 16,282,230 1.8% 25% 73.2%
United States 14,657,800 1.2% 22.2% 76.7%
China 5,878,257 9.6% 46.8% 43.6%
Japan 5,458,872 1.1% 23% 75.9%
Source: Wikipedia
Trend #1: The double-demographic challenge
Manual-physical low technological (attrition functions)
Knowledge based processes/tasks
Source: The World Bank
Trend #1: The double-demographic challenge
Manual-physical low technological (attrition functions)
Knowledge based processes/tasks
Source: The World Bank
Trend #1: The double-demographic challenge
Service activities *must* be automated and made productive
Otherwise ”kills” wealth / welfare
Manual physical Robot solutions
Knowledge based ICT solutions
Trend #2: Digital revolution / exponential computational growth
1. Networks and Computers
2. Artificial Intelligence
and Robotics
3. Nano technology
4. Bio technology and Bio informatics
5. Medicine and Neurosciences
6. Energy and Environmental systems
Source: Law of accelerating returns
1990 Cell phone subscribers: 12.4 million
(0.25% of world population in 1990) Internet users: 2.8 million
(0.05% of world population in 1990)
2010 Cell phone subscribers: 4 billion
(67% of world population in 2010) Internet users: 1.8 billion
(26.6% of world population in 2010)
Source: Wikipedia
“it took ninety years to achieve the first MIPS (million instructions per second) per 1.000 USD, now we add one MIPS per 1.000 USD every day” Source: law of accelerating returns
Trend #2: Digital revolution / exponential computational growth
Can the exponential growth continue?
“One cubic inch of nanotube circuitry would be a million times more powerful than the human brain”
“There are more than enough new computing technologies now being researched, including three-dimensional silicon chips, optical computing, crystalline computing, DNA computing, and quantum computing, to keep the law of accelerating returns as applied to computation going for a long time”
Source: law of accelerating returns
Where does the progression of computational power then bring us? We achieve one Human Brain capability (2*1016 cps) for $1.000 around the year 2023 We achieve one Human Brain capability (2*1016 cps) for $0,01 around the year 2037 We achieve one Human Race capability (2*1026 cps) for $1.000 around the year 2049 We achieve one Human Race capability (2*1026 cps) for $0,01 around the year 2059
Trend #2: Digital revolution / exponential computational growth
Bill Gates, ”A robot in every home”,
Scientific American, 2006 http://www.cs.virginia.edu/~robins/A_Robot_in_Every_Home.pdf
”The leader of the PC revolution predicts that the next hot field will be robotics”
”In the 21st century the industry of personal robots will have greater impact on economic growth and social change than the automobile industry had in the 20th century”
Source: UN, Economic Chamber, prediction on 2020 importance of robotics
Trend #2: Digital revolution / exponential computational growth
“A robot in every home”, Bill Gates, Scientific American, 2006
Global robot boom can lead to a Klondike society in Denmark -
Robot technology will have as great impact on the world economy
as the car industry had in the 20th century Mandag Morgen, 15. oktober, 2007
The service robot market
grows 5-700% in 4 years
(expected turnover
2,8 billion US$), World Robotics The market for robots for
handicap assistance is
expected to double in the
next 4 years, World Robotics
Sales of domestic robots
(vacuum cleaning, lawn-
mowing, window cleaning and
other types) in the next 4
years could reach some 1.34
million units. World Robotics
7% of all vacuum
cleaner sales are now
robots iRobot, 2008
Trend #2: Digital revolution / exponential computational growth
Double demographic challenge
+
Digital revolution and exponential computational growth
A strong need from society and individuals
as well as mature technologies and that should lead to an explosion in the market
So far
Genefke Scale© The 5 categories
Need for new development /
Gap in knowledge, competences
1 2
3 4
5
Complexity
Genefke Scale© Category 1, Simple Standard Solutions
Off the shelf solutions
Handling robots
No process
Singular robots
No external axis
Number of references: Many
1 2 3 4 5
Genefke Scale© Category 2, Adapted Standard Solutions
Off the shelf with adaptation to the specific task
Process-robots
When multiple robots then no overlapping work zones
No or few external axis
Number of references: Some
1 2 3 4 5
Genefke Scale© Category 3, Special Solutions
Solutions that require build up of new knowledge through practical pre-projects that aims at creating “break through demonstration” of critical elements
Process is part of the solution
Simple sensor input
Multiple robots with overlapping work zones
Cooperating robots, “standard controller”
External axes
Number of references: No identical, but partial ones might exist in other solutions
1 2 3 4 5
Genefke Scale© Category 4, Innovation
Solutions being so complex that integrators need to team up with specialised centres to be able to carry out the pre-project demonstrations.
Typically funded by EC or other funding bodies
Complicated process is integrated in the solution
Input from several sensors simultaneously in not fully structured environments
Cooperating robots, off-line programmed
External axes
Number of references: No identical, but partial ones might exists in other solutions
1 2 3 4 5
Genefke Scale© Category 5, Research
Basic understanding and technological development with a long term interest for the industry
Solutions that are unlike ones seen before
Cooperating robots, real-time programmed
Mobile servicerobots in open environments
New types of sensors
Number of references: None!
1 2 3 4 5
Genefke Scale© Robot integrators – Danish Technological Institute – Research Institutes
Behov for nyudvikling /
Gab i viden
1 2
3 4
5
Kompleksitet
Robot integrators Universities
Danish Technological Institute (a.o.)
Genefke Scale© Multiple dimensions, assessments of gap/challenges/opportunities
Multiple-dimensions Green is own competences Blue is suppliers’/integrators’ Yellow is “competence-gap”
Yellow is ”the risk”, but also the space for learning, development and new competences – where enterprises can ”distance and differentiate” from competitors
Risk management: the “yellow-space” should not be over 1, preferably ½
0
1
2
3
4
5
1. Anlæg
2. Projekt org.
3. Drift org.
4. Kendskab tilProcessen
5. Materialernesegnethed
6. Emnets egnethed
7.Procesprogrammering
8. Hardware
9. Software
10. Brugerflade
11. Sensorsystemer
12. Procesudstyr
Genefke Scale© Strategic focus on 2½ - 3 is existentially vital!
Are you thinking?: ”I will not risk too much, I don’t want “yellow-space” in projects, I stick to category 1-2”
Then you must be aware that!: ”this knowledge/technology is global, you walk in the footsteps of others, you can’t get in front of them, your production will never be competitive”
Logical conclusion: Strategic focus on cat. 2½ - 3, and - rest of the production moves sooner or later
Solutions over category 2½ can’t outsourced
without internal knowledge transfer
E.g. China today has the world’s largest growth in import and use of industrial robots
Genefke Scale© Production’s importance for growth and wealth
Production ATTRACTS knowledge-based jobs electric, building, technique, machine, engineer, design, development… and create skilled supplies thus creates knowledge-intensive jobs!
There we MUST develop and have growth in our production
For the companies and for our societies welfare and wealth overall! it is fundamentally a matter of survival!
In practice Georgia/USA and automobile industry! China and wind mills!
Genefke Scale© A summarised recipe / recommendation
1. Analyse production and sort into categories
2. Cat. 1+2: Raise to 2½+, automate NOW, or outsource!
3. Cat. 2½+3: Careful select strategic partners Take care the project is not “lowered” to cat. 1½ - 2! Be ready with project model, organisation, …
4. Cat. 3½+4½: Choose innovation partners with care Match own needs with technological development (2-5 year) Roadmap for match (needs/technology match over time) Design and build own intern learning-based organisation Initiate (largest effect – best match) projects
5. If too many 3½+4½ or too large part of the production then outsource the least critical and most generic processes
Genefke Scale© … in other words
We MUST have growth in the production - and it IS possible! - and we can achieve world-class level
Recipe: knowledge based, advanced technology automation as a strategic tool to distance from the competitors and differentiate in the market
Strategic automation Effect on customer-/buy-parameters Knowledge-/Competence build up Decided, planned/prioritised, prepared
Advanced technology
Cognitive robot technologies Knowledge based cat. 2½ - 3 Digitalised knowledge and knowledge-processes
Welfare-/Service industry depends on manufacturing!
Mature advanced automation in “open” environments Initiate technology-/solution-development Welfare still too complex
Double demographic challenge
+
Digital revolution and exponential computational growth
+
Strategic robotic solutions in category 2½-4
Development and deployment of millions of
new service based robotic systems (and new industrial generation as well) over the coming 5-10-15 years - and this is only the birth of a new powerful global business segment!
Summary
Towel Handling Robot Cat. 3½, Pick of towels and feed into folding machine
Idea Pick of towels, correct insertion Care for corners and logo placement High-speed requirements (3-4 sec.) Needed automation, eliminate attrition Variation in towels, colour, size, weight Dusty environment, low-price required Finn (file-link), Martin (file-link)
Project The Prevention Fund Fcons – product owner, coordinator TriVision, Unisensor – sensors Universal Robots – robot Berendsen – req., tests, implementing DTI – concept and development Prototype runs, next larger texts
Eating Assistive Robots Cat. 3, Independent eating, improved quality of life, labour saving
Idea Sclerosis, Psychological and Physical
disability, Parkinson Breakfast, lunch, dinner Time reduce 50% to prepare, eat clean Quality of life increases Visitation is critical
Project ABT-Foundation Servicestyrelsen, DTI 2010-2012 Demonstration, effect documentation Prepare large scale implementation
Sterilization Department Cat. 4, Automated, cost-effective and hygienic handling of medical-sterilized devices
Idea Instruments for hospital surgery Cleaning, disinfection, storage/stock Robots for handling, storing, logistics Handling of magazines Logistical control of objects/magazines Enable rush-orders and mix-packaging GeH (YouTube),
Project ABT-Foundation Public labour saving Productivity increase Reliable delivery of instruments FAT is done, system is in operation 30+ more in DK to be implemented
Vacuum Cleaning Robots Cat. 2½, Productive use of vacuum cleaning robots in public services
Idea Private homes and nursing homes Saving labour in public cleaning service Productivity increase (area per hour) Improved worker health New cleaning principles, organisation Bin emptying, wall setup, maintenance Safe use for hearing-sight disabilities
Project ABT-Foundation Servicestyrelsen, DTI 2010-2012 Demonstration, effect documentation Prepare large scale implementation TV2Syd (Diverse robots)
Intelligent Compressive Garbage-Cans Cat. 3, Interactive garbage-compressive trash-bins for public street renovations
Idea Compress garbage, increase capacity Feed back load status to renovators Detect with sensors garbage input Respond with voice, sounds and lights Create fun and amusing situations Increase amounts of garbage collected TV2Øst, DR Aftenshowet,
Project ABT-Foundation Public labour savings Productivity increase (ton per hour) Cleaner cities and urban spaces Create businesses with urban space
intelligent devices Under development and next is tests
Power Suits - Exoskeletons Cat. 4, Independent living for young handicapped and labour savings
Idea Young chronically handicapped Live independently, master living Reduce use of labour and services Power suits for lower limb disabilities Later focus on rehabilitation:
lead support follow (as regains)
Project ABT-Foundation Public labour savings Status: being initiated
Intelligent toilets and lifts/catapults Cat. 2½, Labour savings, quality of life improvements, new ways of public services
Idea From 2 to 1 or 0 when using toilet Reduce personnel's time on the road Postpone when to go to nursing home From needing help to do-it-yourself Visitation is critical in order to match
technology with human cognitive and physical capabilities (TV2News)
Project ABT-Foundation Servicestyrelsen, DTI 2010-2012 Demonstration, effect documentation Prepare large scale implementation Dementia, sclerosis, anal problems,
muscular diseases, and similar
Honoré:
Model: R2D2
Honoré:
Model: Orchidé
The Future Bathroom Cat. 3, Design of technology enriched bathroom furniture for existing bathrooms
Municipality of Århus Skelager Nursing Home Renovating nursing homes New design of furniture Embed technologies for
semi-autonomous operations Enable independent living
One Solution 2-in-one Solution 3-in-one Solution
Bathroom for everyone Cat. 4, Danish design bathrooms with assistive technologies for everyone
Idea Independent living by elderly and
handicapped Participatory design, user needs Innovation methods Implementation models Proposed law changes
Project Ministry of Industries User Driven Innovation Programme 2009-2011 Mock-ups, visualisations, prototypes Basic methods and models
Dementia at home (mild) Cat. 3, User-driven invention and innovation of robotic based solutions
User-driven innovation methods Development of robotics based solutions Improve lives of people with mild
dementia Expose dementia related disability
Idea Enable disabled to bath independently From 2 to 1 or 0 employees Increase frequency of baths Organisation of bathing services EC marking and test of effects TV2Syd
Project The Prevention Fund Increase quality of life of elderly Reduce attrition of service workers Status: EC approved, now in test
Bathing Robot Cat. 2½, Introduction of bath-robot to the nursing homes and documenting effects
SWOPBOX® Save depositing of used and handover of new needles for marginalized users
Idea Safe handling and scanning of
used needles New clean needles returned Personalised fingerprint access Easy user interface 24-7 access to drug consultants Solar cell powered station Info and services to users
Project Product ready in the first version
Development to support private
start up company
SWOPBOX® by Michael Toftmann Schmidt & Allan Hylbech
www.swopbox.nu
Hybrid Gripper Cat. 4, Flexible, robust, cost-efficient and customer specific robot gripper(hand)
Idea Gripper configuration from object-CAD Easy and cheap to manufacture Grasp a family of objects Fast and robust in operations Industry, food, service/health
Project Materials, micro-hydraulics, robottech. 2-finger prototype ready and tested World News – and on HI-Fair’11 References build-up from operations Commercialisation via Schunk-DE Tommel, 2-Finger,
Innovative playware Improve linguistic skills of children with multiple languages
LUCINAHAVEN BuusGraphics
Skoleteknologisk Netværk
SupplyNet
Equalize the cultural, social, and linguistic differences among children in Danish day-care centers.
Develop interactive playware encouraging the use of the spoken language regardless of the children's background and ability.
Utilize modern technologies enabling teachers and children to express themselves in multiple languages, eg. using images.
Apple Picker Cat. 4, Efficient picking of columnar-tree apples
Idea Invention of picking technology 120 apples per 30 seconds Only mature ones are picked More gentle than a human hand Cost-efficient technology
Project Close partnering with apple pickers Prototype on picking unit made Test executed with success License producer contacted
Paro Cat. 3½, Social pedagogical baby-seal robot for dementia patients in elderly homes
Paro (Japan, Shibata) Social pedagogical robot Dementia, handicapped Give care Act, react, interaction Alternative puppy/animal 200+ in DK, 50 i EU Open to nursing homes Shared knowledge YouTube, Computerworld
Paro Cat. 3½, Social pedagogical baby-seal robot for dementia patients in elderly homes
Otto (to the right) TV2 ØST
Click to edit Master title style QUAD-AV Ambient Awareness for Autonomous Agricultural Vehicles
ICT AGRI, ERA-NET EU project: Danish Technological Institute University of Salento, Fraunhofer Cemagref, CLAAS Agrocom
Objectives
Security system by fusion of sensors: stereo vision, LIDAR, RADAR, and thermal vision
Recognise obstacles like people, trees, animals, ditches(grøfter) and well-tops(brønddæksler)
DTI: fusion of stereo vision og thermal vision
Real time High Dynamic Range stereo cameras
Registration of stereo data og thermal data
Integration and coordination of other partners’ sensors
Positive obstacles
Difficult Terrain
Negative obstacles
Moving obstacles / Live animals / People
Termografi Realtime HDR
HDR Normal (same camera) Hand in grass in shadow is
easy to see in contrary to
the hand in the sun
Click to edit Master title style QUAD-AV Ambient Awareness for Autonomous Agricultural Vehicles
Video from field tests
Telepresence and tele-medicine Cat. 3, Tele-robotics in operation in nursing homes, private homes and hospitals
Patient suitcase Tele-medical / tele-presence Remotely delivered service/support Self-monitoring, independence Saving on time Improved quality of service Giraff AB
Robot-games for exercising elderly Cat. 4, Robot games for elderly to motivate for physical interaction and exercise
Public healthcare market in Denmark Regions & Municipalities, the public-sectors’ motivation for investing
Denmark 5.5 mill. citizens Capital – Copenhagen 1.1 mill. citizens Income tax: 40-60 % Fee on cars: 180 % Free: school, education, hospitals,
elderly care, roads, pensions
Regions and hospitals 5 Regions owns all hospitals Invests 8 bill. USD in 5 new hospitals World’s most advanced hospital-techs
Municipalities and social services 98 with approx. 50.000 citizens each 1.000 private homes’ services 10-15 nursing homes, 15-20 schools
Technological investment focus Reduce labour costs and logistics Increase quality of life, worker health Develop business clusters and growth
Danish healthcare/welfare funding An overview – and selected focus for the presentation
PWT Foundation (or ABT-Foundation) Public Welfare Technology (PWT) Anvendt Borgernær Teknologi (ABT) Focus: Labour saving effects Application, test, documentation
The Prevention Fund
Focus: Quality of working life Application, test, documentation
The Advanced Technology Foundation
Focus: Advanced technologies Product- and Market Development
Many other funding opportunities exist
More than 400 in DK and EU Many focus on research & development Many focus on innovation Many focus on competence build-up Many focus on demonstrations and test Many focus on tools and technologies Few focus on product development
PWT (ABT) -Foundation Public organisations’ investments in labour saving technologies
Demonstration projects Productivity-/service improvements Technology and new ways of working Innovative and challenging solution Potential for further exploitation Dissemination of results publicly
Implementation projects
Positive business-case on productivity Tested and documented solution Nationwide implementation
Facts New ways of exploiting technology $ 500+ mill. investments until 2015 2-phase proposals 25% self-financing Regions and Municipalities coordinates Companies/researchers supplies Also companies/researchers abroad
The Prevention Fund Public organisations’ investments in preventing workers injuries
Main theme #1 Preventing mental/physical injuries Specifically targeted branches, or Un-educated workers 2 project proposal calls annually ~ $ 40 mill. annually
Main theme #2 Improve rehabilitation and training Specifically for municipalities 1 project proposal calls annually ~ $ 7 mill. annually
Main theme #3 Improve workers health All private or public companies 2 project proposal calls annually ~ $ 12 mill. annually
Main theme #4 Preventing stress and mental injuries Nurses, social workers, school teachers 1 project proposal calls annually ~ $ 6 mill. annually
Facts Reduce attrition in the working life Improve occupational health and
safety in the workplace
Focus on methods, theory, research - not for research, for innovation! 4 main purposes/themes Up to $ 65 mill. annually
Danish organisations coordinates Companies/researchers sub-supplies Also companies/researchers abroad
Advanced Technology Foundation Investments in advanced technologies, focus on products, markets and business
Projects Single-disciplinary focus 2-3 year period Up to $ 6 mill. budget 50% self-financing Product and market oriented
Platforms Multi-disciplinary focus 3-4 year period Up to $ 30 mill. budget 50% self-financing Research and technology oriented
Facts DNATF – Danish National Advanced
Technologies Foundation Combine excellent research with
strong business case Focus on products, markets, business 2-fase project-proposals 2 project calls annually Projects and Platforms Open for all kinds of technologies Total $ 40+ mill. annually Danish organisations coordinates Companies/researchers sub-supplies Also companies/researchers abroad
CareLab® Companies’, Researchers’ and Health Care / Welfare Users’ platform for innovation
Show-Room & Dissemination Hands-on demo and try-out in labs Politicians and Public decision makers Knowledge-sharing among users
Training & Education New and coming users of technologies Welfare Tech Agents Super Users in specific technologies
Innovation & Testing User-driven/-involved innovation Development and test of new techs Consortia Partnership Programme (R&D)
Technology Implementation Marketing and Sales to end-users Implementation knowledge sharing Local technological support
Thank you for your attention! Q&A’s?
Claus Risager, Head of Centre, Ph.D.
Danish Technological Institute, Centre for Robot Technology
Forskerparken 10, DK-5230 Odense M, +45 72 20 39 85
[email protected], www.dti.dk/robot