Download - Right Management Solar Presentation
The Business and Technology of the Solar Industry
Solar Subgroup of the Clean Tech Forum
June 9, 2009
Solar• Industry Overview
– Major technologies - Ari– Manufacturing process & challenges: quality & reliability
John– Solar Value Chain John– Installations – residential Stacy– Future System building and building integration Stacy
• Industry Funding -- follow the money! Keith– Government and VC funding– Residential example
• Careers Ari– Career paths (sample job description)– What you might need
Alternative Energy Industry Overview
Solar PV Technologies
Solar EfficiencyE
ffic
ienc
y
Technological ComparisonTechnology Advantage Disadvantage
c-Si High efficiencyAbundance of material
High cost to manufacture High cost of materials
a-Si Low costAbundant and safe material
Low efficiencyDegrades with temperature increase
CIGS High efficiencyLow costBandgap tunability
Scarcity of IndiumCd is toxicReliability has not been tested
CdTe Low cost Te is scarceCd is toxic
Concentrating solar
High efficiency Low cost
Takes up a lot of roomTransmission of energy over long distances
Solar• Industry Overview
– Major technologies - Ari– Manufacturing process & challenges: quality & reliability
John– Solar Value Chain John– Installations – residential Stacy– Future System building and building integration Stacy
• Industry Funding -- follow the money! Keith– Government and VC funding– Residential example
• Careers Ari– Career paths (sample job description)– What you might need
Silicon Solar Cell Manufacturing Flow
Monocrystalline Si Cell
Amorphous Si Cell
Amorphous Si & Microcrystalline Cell
Thin Film Cell Construct• Cadmium Telluride/Cadmium Sulfide Cell• Copper Indium Selenide • Copper Indium Gallium Selenide
Thin Film Solar Cell Manufacturing Process
Resulting Structure
TCO contact
Process Step Technology Used
TCO Deposition, Front and Scribing
Active Layer Deposition
Activation
Scribing and TCO Deposition, Back
Interconnect and Encapsulation
Sputtering and Laser
Co-evaporation or Sputtering or Ink Jet Printing or Electro
deposition
Chemical Bath or PVD (Phys Vapor Dep)
Mechanical and Sputtering
Lamination
Annealing & Sulfurization or RTA
CdS Deposition
Substrate
Substrate
Substrate
Substrate
Substrate
Substrate
Active layer
Sulfurization
CdS layer
Interconnect
Examples of Final Products
Single Crystal Solar Cell-i.e. Sunpower Polycrystalline Solar
Cell-i.e. Q-Cell
Flexible thin film cell
Thin film cell
Solar cell lamp picture
Solar Cell Application
Product Evaluation Solar Simulator
Radiation of 5 – 10 suns
Solar Cell is exposed
Its Current/Voltage is measured
Cells classified according to output efficiency
Cells then matched together to form module
.
• Poly-Si Feedstock 10%• Ingot/Wafer Production 10%• Cell Production 25%• Module Assembly 25%• System Integration, Distribution and Installation 30%
Wafer Based PV Value Chain
• Glass Production 20%• Cell Production (CdTe, CIS) 20%• Module Assembly 25%• System Integration, Distribution and Installation 35%
Thin Film Based PV Value Chain
Job Distribution in Solar Companies
Solar• Industry Overview
– Major technologies - Ari– Manufacturing process & challenges: quality & reliability
John– Solar Value Chain John– Installations – residential Stacy– Future System building and building integration Stacy
• Industry Funding -- follow the money! Keith– Government and VC funding– Residential example
• Careers Ari– Career paths (sample job description)– What you might need
Case Study
• Residential Solar installation• 2000 square foot house• 3.5 KW system
Comparative Sample Calculation• Demographics
– Home with 2000 square feet• Partitioned into living quarters for one familyAnd 2 separate master bedrooms for single occupants• No air conditioning• Composite roof• Facing south west, plenty of sunlight, no shading• Plenty of roof space for solar panels
• Comparing Sharp, First Solar, BP Solar and Sunpower PV panel based installations • Simple calc, only used the expected AC savings, expected AC cost increases (at 2% and
5% per year rate assumptions), panel degradation and net of tax rebate costs used.• NOTE: Assumes CLEAN dust free sap free panels• CAUTION: Sales person my use 9% AC cost increases per year other inflation rate items
and not take into account panel output degradation to show 2 or 3X the savings.• GOOD NEWS: up to 7600 pound of CO2 averted per year• These solar systems have 7 to 8 year to reach break even point and $28K to $45K savings
in 18 years (18 years is PPA life and may be the “half life” for the Silcon based panels.)
Comparative ROI Calculation
Panel Type, Supplier Sharp-PPA(leased system)
Sharp First Solar BP Solar SunPower
Cell Technology Std Eff Silicon Std Eff Silicon Thin Film CdS/CdTe
Std Eff Silicon Hi Energy Mono Silicon
Area used on roofSquare Feet
246 246 402 221 214
System Rating kWh 2.9 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.9
System Cost $4,194 and $107/mo $24,669 $20,439 $22,939 $28,148
Cost net Rebates $4,194 $14,103 $10,660 $13,566 $16,626
Panel DegradationIn years
20% in 25 yrs 20% in 25 yrs 10% at 10 years, 20% at 25 years
10% at 12 years, 20% at 25 years
20% in 25 years
Ave AC Bill Monthly Savings $152 $152 $100 $120 $150
BREAK EVEN POINT 7 Years 7 Years 8 Years 8 Years 8 Years
If 5% AC cost increase per year, savings at year 18
$13,196 $44,576 $28,454 $34,947 $43,843
Think SOLAR System Integration
• New Building Products– Walls– Windows– Roof systems– Lighting– Plumbing – Heating/Cooling– Flooring– Wall treatments– Window – shading– Siding
with Installation Systems
Beyond LEED ChallengeFor the Solar Community
System Analysis:
Think Beyond LEED StandardsInside as Outside EnvironmentExplore nature’s technologyDual, triple or quadruple solutionsRe-evaluate existing productsThink Beyond Building Integrated Photo Voltaics (BIPV)
Incorporate materials into “BEES”(Building Envelope Energy Systems) for:
Heating + VentilationPlumbingElectricity Lighting
Living Building Challenge Petals Expand on LEED* Current Standards *(Leadership in Energy & Environmental Design)
Manufacturing Considerations:
Banned Materials Red-ListFormaldehyde
Halogenated Flame Retardants:PBDE,TBBPA,HBCD, TCPP,Deca-BDE, TCEP and any with:Dechlorane Plus, Bromine or Chlorine
PVCMercuryCFC’sHCFC’s
Neoprene (chloroprene)CadmiumChlorinated Polyethylene Chlorosulfonated Polyethylene PolyurethaneLead Phthalates
Wood treatments containing:Creosote, Arsenic orPentachlorophenol
Several temporary exceptions for limited conditions: PVC in wiring - when code mandated Solder and off-grid solar battery Low-mercury fluorescent lighting systems only
Solar• Industry Overview
– Major technologies - Ari– Manufacturing process & challenges: quality & reliability
John– Solar Value Chain John– Installations – residential Stacy– Future System building and building integration Stacy
• Industry Funding -- follow the money! Keith– Government and VC funding– Residential example
• Careers Ari– Career paths (sample job description)– What you might need
Federal Funding and Rebates• Business: Grants for offsetting 30% of the cost of
installing a solar energy system– Instead of a tax credit– Large-scale solar plants, often developed to sell power to
utilities, also are eligible – Applies only to systems installed in 2009 and 2010 – Solyndra received $535M loan guarantee from DOE
• Residential: 30% tax credit– Energy Policy Act of 2005
California Solar Initiative (CSI)• Part of “Go Solar California” campaign
– $2.2B program – Rebates offered thru utilities (e.g. PG&E)
• Aug. 2004: Million Solar Roofs program– 3,000 MW goal
• Jan. 2006: CPUC collaborated with Energy Commission – Developed framework for CSI thru 2016
• Jan. 2007: New Solar Homes Partnership– Financial incentives & other support
VC Funding (Bay Area companies)
$M Company300 Nanosolar225 Solyndra132 OptiSolar115 BrightSource
Energy 75 Recurrent Energy 61 Ausra 52 Calisolar 48 SoloPower 47 Solar Power
Partners 30 GreenVolts
$M Company 29 Solar City 22 MiaSole 21 Cool Earth Solar 18 Solexant Corp. 18 Solar Junction 13 Twin Creek Tech 12 Sun Run 9 Stion Corp. 6 Tigo 3 Senergen1236 Total
Source: Thomson Financial, based on 2008 financing VC
Solar System Benefits Example• If annual electric usage = 10,000 kWh ($2,430/yr.)• 4,000 W system would lower cost to $464/yr.
Electric bill savings
Electric bill with solar system
Source: Sunwize Technologies, Inc.
Benefits of Solar System
Cost $32,000Federal/State Tax Credit1 $7,926State/Utility Rebate $5,580Net Cost $18,494 (42% savings)
Cumulative Lifetime Savings2 $93,813 over 25 years
1: Assumes uncapped residential tax credit which goes into effect January 1, 2009
2: CLS based on 5% annual electric bill escalation (~$49,000 if 0% escalation; 14.4% return)
Berkeley allows homeowners to borrow the cost of installation & pay annually
Source: Sunwize Technologies, Inc.
Solar• Industry Overview
– Major technologies - Ari– Manufacturing process & challenges: quality & reliability
John– Solar Value Chain John– Installations – residential Stacy– Future System building and building integration Stacy
• Industry Funding -- follow the money! Keith– Government and VC funding– Residential example
• Careers Ari– Career paths (sample job description)– What you might need
Career Options• Process Engineer
– Educational requirement: Typically advanced degree in Chemical Engineering, Materials Science, or other related engineering disciplines
– Experience with deposition techniques like CVD, and PVD
• Systems Engineer– Educational requirement: BS/MS in Electrical
Engineering– Understanding of control theory and power
systems
Career Options
• Many other jobs inlcluding SW engineers, Mechanical Engineers, Project Managers, etc…
• More detailed description of many jobs may be found at http://www.greenforall.org/resources/green-jobs-guidebook
Summary• Different technologies used for a variety of
applications– Large surface area may want lower cost/lower
efficiency, etc.
• Jobs will be found in variety of different segments of the solar industry– R&D, manufacturing, business operations
• Subsidies provide access to technology and incentive to buy– Success in Germany and Spain example of solar
technology flourishing
Examples of Thin Film Cells
Q-Cell
Q-CellQ-Cell
Q-Cell
Q-Cell
Thin Film PV Companies in US a-Si/Thin-Si CdTe CIGS
Applied Materials –CA First Solar –OH Global Solar –AZ
XsunX –CA Solar Fields –OH Miasole –CA
OptiSolar –CA Xunlight 26 Solar –OH ISET –CA
Signet Solar –CA Primestar Solar –CO Nanosolar –CA
Innovalight –CA AVA Solar –CO Solo Power –CA
Nanogram –CA Nuvo Solar Energy –CO Solyndra –CA
Soltaix –CA Canrom –NY Stion –CA
Sierra Solar Power –CA Ascentool –CA Energy PV –NJ
Uni-Solar –MI Solexant –CA RESI –NJ
Power Films –IA Bloom Solar –CA Ascent Solar –CO
Energy PV –NJ Zia Watt Solar –TX ITN/ES –CO
Nano PV –NJ Sunovia –FL Daystar –NY
MV Systems –CO NewCve –GA Heliovolt –TX
Proto Flex –CO Ampulse –TN
Comparative ROI Calculation
Panel Type, Supplier Sharp-PPA Sharp First Solar BP Solar SunPower
Model No. ND-198U1F ND-198U1F FS-276 BP175 SP2-210
Cell Technology Std Eff Silicon Std Eff Silicon Thin Film CdS/CdTe
Std Eff Silicon Hi Energy Mono Silicon
Area used on roofSquare Feet
246 246 402 221 214
System Rating CEC AC KWh
2.9 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.9
System Cost $4,194 and $107/mo $24,669 $20,439 $22,939 $28,148
Cost net Rebates $4,194 $14,103 $10,660 $13,566 $16,626
Panel DegradationIn years
80% in 25 yrs 80% in 25 yrs 90% at 10 years, 80% at 25 years
90% at 12 years, 80% at 25 years
80% in 25 years
Degradation used in calculation 0.005 per year 0.005 per year 0.008 per year 0.005 per year 0.005 per year
OTHER MONITORING,
Buy out $13,195 at 5 years, $3,564 at 18 years/end
MONITORING PREPAID RECYCLING, MONITORING
NONE, monitoring system not included
NONE, monitoring system not included
Ave AC Bill Monthly Savings $152 $152 $100 $120 $150
BREAK EVEN POINT 7 Years 7 Years 8 Years 8 Years 8 Years
If 5% AC cost increase per year, savings at year 18
$13,196 $44,576 $28,454 $34,947 $43,843
If 2% AC cost increase per year, savings at year 18
$10,863 $36,692 $24,140 $28,767 $36,089