Jeffrey K. HassDepartment of Sociology & Anthropology
University of RichmondUniversity of Richmond, VA
Faculty of Economics, Dept. of Economic TheorySt. Petersburg State University
St. Petersburg, Russia
Resilience of the Simple? Lessons about Order from the
Blockade of Leningrad
Onecity:• Brutalwar,noclearendorvictoryinsight.Uncertainty&institutionalstrain.Coldwinter,extremefoodscarcity,farfromcompetentelite.
• TrulyonebigPrisoners’Dilemma
Wasthis:• 1917Petrograd(oneequilibriumofthePD):orderunravelshereandthroughouttheRussianempire?
• Leningradin1941-42,theBlockade(otherequilibriumofthePD):finebalancebetweendecayandresilience(byitsfingertips)?
Shocksfromaboveà survivalincentivesbelow:• Scarcefoodà shiftsincentives• Benefitsofstrategicinnovations(forsurvival,gain,etc.)becomegreater thanforobedience,i.e.cost/benefitcalculusofobedienceversusopportunismordefectionshifts,withinthestateandbetweenstateandothers
• Evenconcentrationofresourcesthatcreatesdependencypowerandlegitimacynowaweakpointininstitutionalcoherenceandauthority.
Forcesfordisaggregationathigherlevels
• Bureaucraticfailure(orbureaucraticfubar)– Informationandinstitutionaloverload– Mismatchofskillsandcompetencies– Fiascoofevacuationsà 3millionsoulsinBlockadering
• Institutionalcompromise:insideropportunism– Insidersusepositionsto“privatize”resources(food,etc.)– Undercutsinstitutionalauthority(dependencypower)
• Competingnodesofdependency(shadowmarkets)– Competingnodesofdependency,orientationorloyalty?
à Allthisinasystemsetupforwar!
Whatheldthingstogetheratthetop?Resilienceofthesimple
• Coherenceand“will”andcontextElitecoherentenough tocoordinatepolicies.Haveenough coercion&capitaltobeofsomerelevance.E.g.NKVDnotabandoningelite
• ParasitismShadowentrepreneursdraininginstitutionalefficacyalsoneedthoseinstitutions(state)
ConclusionsontheCommandingHeights
Hierarchyandcentralizationà risksof• Institutionaloverloadandbureaucraticfailure• Structure+incentives=opportunism• Asifdisaggregationtoanequilibriumwithenoughresilience,withoutsurrenderingallcoherence—i.e.devolutiontonewequilibriumofresilience.(Yetnewinertiamightsustainoracceleratedisaggregation;notin1941-42Leningrad,butsoin1917Petrograd.)
• Decenteredsystemsmighthaveflexibilitytouselocalknowledgeandinitiative.(SimilartoFrenchversusGermanarmiesinWorldWarII,ala JamesQ.Wilson.)
• Notdesiredstrategicdecision—ratherfaitaccompli
TheStoryBelow:AnchoredinEmpathy&Distance
Survival&uncertaintyà Prisoners’Dilemma(savemyskinorothers’skins?).Whatbalancesthem?• AdamSmith:empathy• GaryBeckeronlove:Otherinmy“utility”(self)• ProspectTheory:risk-aversion• Anchoring:weanchorselvesaswellasexpectationsinsocialrelationsimbuedwithempathy&meaningà anchorusinotherfields
Empathy,Distance,Dignity
• Distance:visibility/knowledgeof(suffering)Other=realperson(notabstractorthreat).Easiertostealfromfacelessbureaucracyorstrangerthankin
• Empathy:Countertointerests:Otherasself.
• Dignity:Whysurvive?Issurvivaljustphysical?(Thiscomesupwithdeath,class,andtheodicies.)“Rationalaction”feelscompelled
• Additup:attractive,ordering forces
Anchoringandvalences
• Senseofselfand“theOther”(SimonedeBeauvoirmeetsGaryBecker)à risk-aversionvis-à-visthisOtherwhoispartofmy“self”
• Example:gender—womenandchildrenmothersó childrenó teachers
Empathy(helplesschildren)+senseofselfanchoredinchildren—thechildlinksfieldsofhome&schoolorwork
Conclusionsfrombelow
• Justasforhigher-levelorder,theremightbeprimordialequilibriumgroundedinempathy,distance,anchoring
• Empathy&risk-aversion:wearecreaturesoforder.(Howthisleadstopower,structures,etc.isanotherstory)
Overallthoughts
• Disaggregationfrombureaucraticfailure,possiblytolower-levelequilibrium
• Centrifugal(opportunism)canalsobecentripetal(parasitism)
• Lowerlevels:distance&empathy,anchoringselfinOtherssharedbylower-levelfields
Complexityà simplicity?Howgeneralizable?
Entertaininglywildspeculation#1
CentrifugalvscentripetalforcescouldbemodeledasaninvertedU-shapedcurve• x-axis=increasingthreat(uncertainty,suffering)
• y-axis=likelihoodofinnovations(survival,opportunism)thatundermineorder
Entertaininglywildspeculation#2
• Collapseofastar=gravityversuselectrostaticrepulsion.Whateverbalanceà getanovaorablackhole
• Are“complexity”(or“information”)and“empathy”theequivalents—forasocialnovaorblackhole?(Canwefollowtheleadofthegravitymodelofinternat’l trade&usereal“scientific”modelhere?)