Georges Kunstler – Irstea GrenobleSumforest meeting Barcelona 17-18/10/2017
RESILIENCE MECHANISMS FOR RISK ADAPTED FOREST MANAGEMENT UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
PI Bjoern Reineking
Irstea
Manage for forest resilience
Climate Change Risk for forest product and services
+ Disturbances:- Drought- Storm
High uncertainty for the future of forest ecosystems
=> management promoting forest resilienceto climate change & disturbances
REFORCE GOALS
• enhance the scientific basis for successfully managing forest ecological resilience
• propose climate-resilient management regimes and economic systems
REFORCE approach
Measure resilience
Map resilience
Analyse ecological mechanisms of resilience
Manage resilience
Explore decision-making behaviour for resilience
WP1
WP2
WP3
WP4
WP5
WP1: Multiple measures of resilience
• Concept?- Stability- Engineering resilience- Ecological resilience
• Measures?
• Of what?
• Scale?
=> Provide common working definitions of forest resilience
WP leader Irstea (T. Cordonnier)
WP2: Remote sensing-based mapping of forest resilience
Satellite imagery => time series of vegetation state proxies
at a global scale
Time series analysis –Extraction of stability
metrics
Large scale assessment of forest stability
Variance
Recovery
Resistance
Recovery?Resistance
Variance
NDVI
WP leader KULEUVEN (B Somers, S. Lhermitte, W. De Keersmaecker)
WP2: Comparison with ground data
WP leader KULEUVEN (B. Somers, S. Lhermitte, W. De Keersmaecker)
ICP level I and II plots- Crown defoliation- Growth
Landscape scale (WP4)
Publication of open data on a interactive web-interface
WP3: Mechanisms of short-term resilience to drought
WP leader Irstea & UR (G. Kunstler F. Hartig)
A. Remote sensing Resilience to drought ~ forest structure and functional diversity
A. 4C physiological model => species specific drought response
Resilience
ResistanceNDVI
Drought Ground plots (ICP, NFI)-Functional diversity-Stand structure-Abiotic conditions
WP3: Mechanisms of community long-term resilience
WP leader Irstea & UR (G. Kunstler F. Hartig)
Species composition resilience to Climate Change- We need to dynamics data (NFI data)- Metapopulation models (SPOM)
Climate & Trait-based Competition effects
Resilience
WP4: Risk reduction potential of management
WP leader BOKU (R. Seidl)
Does coordinated risk management in a multi-owner landscape reduce risks and increase resilience, relative to owners taking individualistic decisions?
Hypo: Coordination reducethe spatial spread of disturbances
Hypo_alt: Heterogeneous managementincrease the diversity, and thus fosterresilience
Lower Tatra MtsBucklige
Welt
N Front Range
Stubai-Valley
France
iLand & Flammap models on landscapes covering ecological
and social gradients
WP4: Economical resilience with payment for ES
WP leader BOKU (R. Seidl) UVIGO J. M. Da Rocha, M. L. Chas-Amil, J. G. Cutrín, M. J. Gutierrez
Virtual markets with payment for MARKET
AND NON-MARKET ecosystem services
Dynamic general equilibrium
stochastic models with heterogeneous
agents
Economic resilience
Unexpected shock
WP5: Decision-making behaviour for resilience
WP leader BOKU (M. Lexer)
A. Variable driving determine decision-making behaviour in forest management under conditions of climate change and uncertainty
B. Efficient communication strategies
Risk perception
Semi-structured interviews in
Austria & France
Information availability
Websites
Forestry students
Articles
Manuals
Workshops
Decision support system
Thank youKickoff Meeting Grenoble May 2017