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HarvestPlus c/o CIATA.A. 6713 • Cali, ColombiaTel: +57(2)4450000 • Fax: +57(2)[email protected] • www.HarvestPlus.org
Research advances of HarvestPlus
socioeconomic studies in LAC
Carolina GonzalezImpact Assessment, Harvest Plus LAC
CIAT-IFPRI 26 Jun 2014
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Contents
• Portfolio of socioeconomic studies for H+LAC• Biofortification Prioritization Index (BPI) for
Colombia• Rice production, consumption and
commercialization in Bolivia• Consumer Acceptance of a HIB variety (Super
Chiva) in Guatemala
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HarvestPlus
AgroSalud LAC -14 countries
HarvestPlus LAC
2002-2004 2005 2006-2008-2009-2010-2011 2012-2013 (- 2018)
Guatemala, Nicaragua, Haiti, Bolivia
Panama, Brazil and Colombia
HarvestPlus Global
Honduras, El Salvador
We develop nutrient-rich seeds: Beans-iron/zinc; rice-zinc; maize: VIT A/zinc; cassava-VIT A; sweet Potato-VIT A
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Overall portfolio in LAC/Brazil
• Where to invest?1. Prioritization exercise 2. Opportunities map
• Informing delivery and breeding1. Varietal adoption studies2. Consumer acceptance studies3. Farmer field day evaluation
• Measuring impact 1. Farmer feedback studies2. Impact assessment3. Impact evaluation/effectiveness
• Policy studies
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COLOMBIA BPI
José Funes, Carolina González, Salomón Perez, Alexander Buritica, Ekin Birol, Manfred Zeller, Moursi
Mourad
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Three basic conditions
The geographic areal unit must be a producer of the crop.
The geographical areal unit’s population must consume a substantial quantity of the crop under consideration.
The geographical areal unit’s population suffers from deficiencies for the key micronutrients, namely vitamin A, zinc, or iron.
Asare-Marfo et al. (2013) www.harvestplus.org/content/prioritizing-countries-biofortification-interventions-using-country-level-data
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Data sources
• Micronutrient deficiency statistics: the National Survey of Nutritional Situation (ENSIN) assesses the nutritional state in Colombia. The survey is national, regional (6 regions) and department (32 departments) representative. It is also representative for urban and rural areas (ENSIN, 2010). [departments, n=32]
• Production statistics: the annual evaluation of agriculture and livestock of municipalities 2011 produced by the ministry of agriculture [municipalities, n=1120] and FAO food balance sheet.
• Consumption statistics: the ENSIN 2005 survey provides per capita food consumption statistics[departments, n=32; municipalities, n=252].
• Population statistics: 2011 population projections, based on 2005 population census (DANE, 2011). [districts, n=1120] % & UN Population prospects (2013).
• BPI – departments
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Production index
• Production index = [1/3*per capita area harvestedr] + [1/3*Agricultural land allocated to the cropr] + [1/3*Spatial Interaction Factorr]x
DepartmentProduction
Index Cassava
GUAINIA 1.00ARAUCA 0.49AMAZONAS 0.45GUAVIARE 0.45SUCRE 0.41BOLIVAR 0.30CAQUETÃ � 0.29VAUPES 0.29MAGDALENA 0.27CORDOBA 0.21
Department
Production Index Maize (interaction index)
CORDOBA 0.70ARAUCA 0.58GUAVIARE 0.50BOLIVAR 0.43SUCRE 0.40GUAINIA 0.39PUTUMAYO 0.39CESAR 0.34CAQUETA 0.34MAGDALENA 0.32
DepartmentProduction Rice
Index (spatial interaction)
CASANARE 0.94TOLIMA 0.70META 0.62SUCRE 0.37CHOCO 0.34NORTE DE SANTANDER 0.29HUILA 0.25CESAR 0.19ARAUCA 0.18BOLIVAR 0.12
Department
Production Index Bean (interaction
index)HUILA 0.62CUNDINAMARCA 0.46CALDAS 0.37QUINDIO 0.33SANTANDER 0.28ANTIOQUIA 0.27NARINO 0.26CAUCA 0.24TOLIMA 0.23NORTE DE SANTANDER 0.22
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The spatial index a
Figure. Rice food deficit/ rice food surplus/ rice food balanced
Source: Authors calculations based on DANE –ENA 2011
• Food surplus (ration <=0.8)
• Food balanced (0.8-1.2)
• Food deficit areas (>=1.2).
SII: Measures the potential spatial interaction between departments that have surpluses on their aggregate supply and with their neighbors departments.
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Consumption index
• Consumption Index i = [(rur_popi/tot_popi) * rur_ cons_capitai + (urb_popi/total_popi) * urb_ cons_capitai]r
DepartmentConsumption Index Maize
CHOCO 1.00VAUPES 0.99TOLIMA 0.82CALDAS 0.69GUAINIA 0.65RISARALDA 0.65ANTIOQUIA 0.49CAUCA 0.45QUINDIO 0.40CAQUETA 0.38
DepartmentConsumption
Index Bean
CALDAS 1.00ANTIOQUIA 0.96GUAINIA 0.86TOLIMA 0.85QUINDIO 0.84RISARALDA 0.83META 0.78VAUPES 0.74GUAVIARE 0.72VICHADA 0.71
DepartmentConsumption Index Rice
BOLIVAR 1.00VALLE DEL CAUCA 0.72ANTIOQUIA 0.63CAUCA 0.48ATLANTICO 0.38MAGDALENA 0.35SUCRE 0.35CORDOBA 0.30LA GUAJIRA 0.28CESAR 0.21
www.Laylita.com
DepartmentConsumption Index Cassava
LA GUAJIRA 1.00NORTE DE SANTANDER 0.92CESAR 0.80MAGDALENA 0.79SANTANDER 0.75CAQUETA 0.74BOLIVAR 0.70SUCRE 0.62ATLANTICO 0.57ARAUCA 0.49
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Micronutrients:
Vitamin A micronutrient deficiency index– Micronutrient Index (Vitamin A) = ½*Serum Retinol <0.7 µmol/l +
½*(100 - proportion of consumption by food groups fruits). Iron micronutrient deficiency index
– Micronutrient Index (Iron) = ½*ferritin < 12 g/dl + ½*(100 - proportion of consumption by food groups meats and eggs)
Zinc micronutrient deficiency index– Micronutrient Index (Zinc) = ½*Inadequate Zinc + ½*Stunting
prevalence
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Micronutrients - Results:
𝑩𝒊𝒐𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒕𝒊𝒇𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑷𝒓𝒊𝒐𝒓𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝑰𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒙 (𝑩𝑷𝑰 )=√𝑀𝑖𝑐𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑢𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐷𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥∗√𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥∗𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥
BPI:
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Rice
DepartmentRank_bpi
_riceRank_bpi_rice_pop_weighted
Rank_bpi_rice_spatial_interaction_suppliers
Production rice
[intervention]
Impact rice
Intervention & impact
rice
CHOCO 1 12 1 1 1 1SUCRE 2 8 2 1 0 0CAUCA 3 2 3 0 1 0ANTIOQUIA 4 1 4 1 0 0BOLIVAR 5 4 6 1 0 0LA GUAJIRA 6 6 5 1 1 1CESAR 7 13 7 1 1 1MAGDALENA 8 10 9 0 1 0TOLIMA 9 5 8 1 0 0CORDOBA 10 3 10 1 0 0
Candidate sites for biofortification with zinc: rice
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Beans
Candidate sites for biofortification with iron: beans
DepartmentRank_bpi
_beans
Rank_bpi_beans_pop_weighted
Rank_bpi_beans_spatial_interaction
Production bean
[intervention]
Impact beans
Intervention & impact
beans
ANTIOQUIA 1 1 1 1 1 1CALDAS 2 7 3 1 0 0QUINDIO 3 19 4 0 0 0RISARALDA 4 10 5 1 0 0CUNDINAMARCA 5 2 2 0 0 0NORTE DE SANTANDER6 9 6 1 0 0TOLIMA 7 5 7 1 1 1HUILA 8 6 8 0 0 0BOYACA 9 3 9 0 0 0SANTANDER 10 4 10 1 0 0
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Cassava
DepartmentRank_bpi_cassava
Rank_bpi_cassava_pop_weighted
Production cassava
[intervention]
Impact cassava
Intervention & impact cassava
SUCRE 1 5 1 1 1BOLIVAR 2 3 0 0 0ARAUCA 3 17 1 0 0GUAINIA 4 24 0 1 0MAGDALENA 5 4 0 1 0AMAZONAS 6 21 1 1 1GUAVIARE 7 22 1 0 0CORDOBA 8 2 0 0 0VAUPES 9 26 1 0 0CESAR 10 9 0 0 0PUTUMAYO 11 15 1 1 1LA GUAJIRA 12 7 0 0 0CAQUETA 13 14 0 0 0VICHADA 14 25 1 0 0NORTE DE SANTANDER15 10 0 0 0ATLANTICO 16 18 1 1 1CASANARE 17 20 1 1 1SANTANDER 18 6 0 0 0ANTIOQUIA 19 1 0 0 0HUILA 20 12 1 0 0
Candidate sites for biofortification with VIT A: cassava
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Maize
DepartmentRank_bpi
_maize
Rank_bpi_maize_pop_weighted
Rank_bpi_maize_spatial_interaction
Production maize
[intervention]
Impact maize
Intervention & impact
maize
VAUPES 1 24 1 1 1 1GUAINIA 2 25 2 0 1 0ANTIOQUIA 3 1 3 0 1 0GUAVIARE 4 20 5 1 1 1ARAUCA 5 18 7 1 0 0CORDOBA 6 2 4 1 1 1SUCRE 7 10 6 1 1 1CESAR 8 12 8 0 0 0LA GUAJIRA 9 8 9 1 0 0CHOCO 10 13 11 1 1 1
Candidate sites for biofortification with VIT A: maize
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Next Steps
Finalize the working paper…Develop a subnational Biofortification
Prioritization Index to rank regions in Guatemala where biofortification could have the highest impact using the food basket approach.
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Diana Lopera, Ricardo Labarta, Victor Zuluaga, José María Martinez, Roger Taboada and
Carolina Gonzalez
Rice in Bolivia
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Adoption study of rice varieties in Bolivia
General Objectives (some preliminary results)• Characterization of the rice production system in Bolivia.• Identification of the rice varieties in Bolivia (farmers’ identification vs.
molecular markers).• Estimation of current adoption rates for rice varieties in the country and
factors associated with farmers’ choice of rice varieties. • Estimation of the proportion used for home consumption and sales
across rice producing households and preferences• Identify household main source(s) of information, about agricultural
techniques and health and nutrition. • Collect secondary information with the local organizations (secretaries of
health, municipalities, and hospitals) about micronutrient deficiency. Available
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Sampling
We used a multi-stage sampling procedure:
Total surveys required due to the sampling
Total surveys actually conducted (due to logistical
constraints)
Households Village Households Village
Irrigated producers 84 7 83 6Rainfed producers 900 75 855 94Total producers 984 82 938 100
12 producers/community
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Study sites
Department Province Freq.
Santa Cruz (n=613)
Guarayos 150Ichilo 238
Ñuflo de Chávez 39
Obispo Santistevan 65
Sara 58Warnes 62
Beni (n=244)
Ballivian 72Cercado 45Marban 67Moxos 60
Cochabamba (n=81) Carrasco 81
Department Province Municipality Village3 11 24 100
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Preliminary descriptive statistics : Household characteristics
Total
Department
Santa Cruz BeniCochabam
ba Anova Obs. Mean Mean Mean Mean
Household size 846 4.6 4.4 4.8 5.1 **(2.22) (2.2) (2.3) (2.1)
Gender of head of hh (%male) 848 0.96 0.96 1.0 1.0 (0.18) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2)
Age of head of hh (years) 842 46.0 45.9 47.1 43.8 *(12.41) (12.4) (12.4) (12.0)
Years of schooling received by household head 792 6.6 6.7 6.4 6.2
(4.14) (4.1) (4.2) (4.2)
(whitout japanese)
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Preliminary descriptive statistics : Production unit and Rice
Total Departments
Santa Cruz Beni Cochabamba Anova
Obs. Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Total land available for production (ha)-APU 852 57.5 37 80.90 50 18.1 2 23.7 11.5 ***
(150.6) (185.79) (29.07) (46.48) Total rice area planted (ha) 853 17.2 3.0 25.7 10 2.5 1 5.5 1 ***
(58.6) (72.7) (4.7) (17.6)
Total rice production (ton) 835 42.0 4.8 63.4 16 6.0 1.2 14.2 1.53 ***
(175.6) (220.4) (14.7) (46.1)
Yield (ton/ha) 835 2.1 1.9 2.3 2 1.8 1.6 2.0 2 ***(1.5) (1.5) (1.3) (1.4)
(whitout japanese)
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Production constraints
Pest and Insects
Drought
Diseases
other
Floods
Grain yield
Low soil fertility
Lack of inputs
Seed quality
53.39%
26.28%
6.66%
4.28%
3.57%
3.57%
1.07%
0.71%
0.48%
What are your main production constraints? (most important)
(N= 841) (N= 828)
High yield
Resistance to pest and Insects
Resistance to diseases
Tolerance to drought
Short-cycle varieties
Lower levels of inputs
Other
70.51%
8.32%
3.45%
12.01%
3.09%
0.71%
1.90%
What characteristics do you look for in rice varieties when deciding what vari-
eties to use on your plot? (most im-portant)
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Main varieties planted
MAC 18
GRANO DE ORO
ESTAQUILLA
JASAYE
EPAGRI
URUPE
POPULAR
TARI
PAITITI
CRISTAL
DORADO
IAC 101
PANACU
BLUEBONNET
CARANDEÑO
IAC 103
OTRAS
22.0%
10.3%
9.2%
7.5%
6.3%
5.8%
4.5%
3.8%
3.3%
2.5%
2.1%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.2%
1.0%
16.2%
Planted varieties by plot exclud-ing Japanese (2012-2013)
CAISY 50
EPAGRI
EPAGRI 109
IAC 101
MAC 18
0.5%
26.2%
3.3%
34.3%
35.7%
Planted varieties by plot (2012-2013): Japanese
N= 1019 plots N= 210 plots
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Our sampling covers around 15.794 ha
MAC 18
GRANO DE ORO
EPAGRI
URUPE
ESTAQUILLA
TARI
PANACU
IAC 101
PAITITI
EPAGRI 115
JASAYE
NOVENTON
IAC 103
IAC 115
SAAVEDRA 44
OTHER
47.77%
8.79%
7.72%
6.14%
5.49%
4.28%
3.74%
3.59%
2.78%
1.58%
1.51%
1.37%
1.02%
0.51%
0.44%
3.26%
Main rice varieties in Bolivia: percentage of total area planted
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Main varieties planted by department
ESTAQUILLA
GRANO DE ORO
POPULAR
MAC 18
JASAYE
EPAGRI
OTHER
22.0%
17.0%
15.2%
9.5%
5.3%
4.2%
26.9%
BENI: planted varieties by plot (2012-2013)
CRISTAL
ESTAQUILLA
URUPE
MAC 18
CAROLINA
PAITITI
OTHER
28.9%
15.6%
7.8%
8.9%
6.7%
5.6%
26.7%
COCHABAMBA: planted varieties by plot (2012-
2013)
MAC 18
JASAYE
GRANO DE ORO
URUPE
EPAGRI
TARI
OTHER
29.6%
9.4%
9.0%
8.6%
8.0%
5.6%
29.9%
SANTA CRUZ: planted varieties by plot (2012-2013)
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Commercialization and Consumption
Sale is 81% vs. 19% consumption and seed*
Disaggregating by department we found that the change share was 85% vs. 15% for Santa Cruz and 71% vs. 29% for Beni respectively*
ConsumptionDto N
Mean (kg/d) p50 sd min max
Beni 243 1.2 1 0.8 0.1 6Cochabamba 81 1.3 1 0.8 0.25 5Santa Cruz 515 1.3 1 0.8 0.2 9Total 839 1.2 1 0.8 0.1 9
Rice food - Bolivia
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Consumer preferences
Grain type (shape and length)
Grain quality
Easier to thresh
Easier to sell/ good marketing
Good taste
Other
41.91%
20.89%
7.61%
10.02%
18.48%
1.09%
What qualities do you look for in rice varieties when deciding what varieties to use on your plot? (most important)
Long and thin
Short and round
Super-fine rice and aromatic
Millet rice and polished
Brown rice (less polished)
Popular (medium and round)
66.40%
16.10%
7.00%
10.80%
0.70%
38.20%
Which type of rice do you prefer? (count of 1=yes)
(n= 855 whitout japanese)
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Next Steps
Identification of the rice varieties in Bolivia (farmers’ identification vs. molecular markers).
Finish the analysis..
Outputs
Master Thesis Papers (2)
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Consumer Acceptance of a HIB variety (super chiva) in
GuatemalaSalomón Perez, Carolina González, Ekin Birol, Manfred
Zeller – ICTA- U. Hohenheim
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Objectives
1. Determine the socioeconomic and organoleptic factors affecting the acceptance of iron biofortifed beans varieties in Guatemala.
2. Estimate the premium/discount related with HIB variety (super chiva) in Guatemala.
3. Evaluate the acceptance of the HIB variety from a gender basis
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Why Guatemala?
Prevalence of anemia in children 6 – 59 months: 47% (ENSMI, 2009).
Prevalence of anemia pregnant women: 29.1% (ENSMI, 2009).
Prevalence of anemia non pregnant women: 21.4% (ENSMI, 2009).
Source: http://www.desdeabajo.info
*Anemia: hemoglobin < 11g/dl
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Data Collection
Location: Municipality of San Sebastian Huehuetenango (North-West of Guatemala)
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Methodology
Sample size : 360 HH’s randomly selected in 8 districts.
Home use testing approach
Three treatments: 1. No information 2. Information (once) 3. Information (three times)
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Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) auction:1. Ask willingness to pay for each
variety2. Select a paper with a variety
figure from a bag3. Select one price from the bag4. Win or lost - purchase the
variety.
Source:Fieldwork
Methodology (b)
If bid ≥ random price “WIN”
If bid < random price “LOSE”
Pay price
Don’t Pay
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Preliminary results (PR): Sample characterization
Variable ConstructionMean
Treatment 1 Treatment 2 Treatment 3 Prob > F
Age Respondent’s age in years 36.24 35.82 34.96 0.7340Literacy HH’s head knows to write and read 70% 68.33 70.59% 0.7791HH size** Number of members in the HH 6.32 6.06 5.46 0.0210Income Expenses in the last 30 day in
Quetzales2,447 2,629 2,265 0.2022
Poverty PPI 61.25% 66.47% 65.34% 0.3631Consumption Beans consumption per week
(pounds)3.34 3.15 2.65 0.3824
Food frequency index
Count of 15 food groups consumed in the last 7 days (less than 4=0, 4-6=1,7+=2)
6.34 5.90 5.93 0.3933
Babies HH with babies less than 12 months 22.5% 25% 20% 0.4055Children (1-5 years)*
HH with children between 1-5 years 53.3% 40% 45% 0.0688
Pregnancy HH with pregnant women 3.33% 6.67% 5.04% 0.3907
p<0.1*, p<0.05**, p<0.01***
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PR: (Mean hedonic rating (MHR) of bean variety)
Bean variety Raw bean color
Raw bean size
Bean taste Time of cooking
Cooked bean thickness
Cooked bean toughness
Overall
Control (T1): No
Information
Local (Hunapu) 6.55±0.59 6.57±0.72 6.59±0.75 6.10±1.35 6.17±1.29 1.85±2.95 6.47±1.00HIB (Superchiva) 6.63±0.72 6.61±0.67 6.75±0.74 6.58±0.74 6.66±0.66 1.95±3.07 6.66±0.66
Difference in means
HIB vs Local 0.75 0.042 0.16 0.47*** 0.49*** 0.11 0.19*
T2: Information
present once
Local (Hunapu) 6.53±0.46 6.5 ±0.56 6.63±0.52 6.37±1.09 6.40±0.93 1.42±2.73 6.59±0.63
HIB (Superchiva) 6.77±0.65 6.74±0.46 6.85±0.42 6.64±0.76 6.6 ±0.91 1.21±2.63 6.6±0.91Difference in means
HIB vs Local 0.24*** 0.24*** 0.21*** 0.26** 0.19 -0.21 0.01
T3: Information
present three times
Local (Hunapu) 6.55±0.57 6.54±0.55 6.63±0.53 6.39±0.67 6.53±0.54 1.34±2.63 6.59±0.59HIB (Superchiva) 6.76±0.51 6.77±0.51 6.84±0.46 6.57±0.77 6.64±0.96 1.15±2.51 6.64±0.96
Difference in means
HIB vs Local 0.21*** 0.23*** 0.20*** 0.17* 0.11 -0.19 0.06
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PR: Mean economic rating of bean varieties
Average WTP Premium/DiscountWTP HIB (T1)WTP HIB (T2)WTP HIB (T3)WTP trad (T1)WTP trad (T2)WTP trad (T3) Premium (T1)Premium (T2)Premium (T3)
4.83±0.714.96±0.834.89±0.764.70±0.724.67±0.744.67±0.71
0.133±0.900.289±0.940.220±0.81
There’ is not significant differences between the WTP towards both varieties across the three treatments.
Frequency of information did not have effects
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Next Steps
…to finish the described objectives
Muchas gracias!!
Outputs:
Ph.D Thesis (1)
Papers (2)