The Canasat Project
Remote Sensing Satellite Images for Sugarcane Crop Monitoring
Thelma Krug ([email protected]) Bernardo Rudorff ([email protected])
National Institute for Space Research – INPE
2o Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle
Campinas, 11-12 November, 2009
Land‐useChange• Amount,orarea,oflandconverted?
– Remotelysenseddata
• Loca:onoflandusechanges?– Remotelysenseddata
• Landtypes/biomesconverted?– Remotelysenseddataandmodels(MODIS,CBERS,mixturemodels)
• GHGemissionsfromlandconversion?– GoodPrac3ceGuidanceforLULUCF(IPCC)– Allcarbonreservoirs,includingsoil– Non‐CO2emissions(fer3lizeruse,fieldburning)
Satellite scenes for South-Central Brazil
Landsat-TM, CBERS-CCD & -HRC, DMC, IRS-P6 AWIFS, Terra MODIS, Rapideye
SugarcaneAreaEs-ma-on
Annualupdatesonsugarcaneexpansionandrenova3on(oldareasreplacedbynewareas)
SãoPauloState–since2003• South‐Central–since2005
Landsat-5 image from 24 April 2007 in São Paulo State - Color composition 4(R)5(G)3(B).
1-Sugarcane 2-Citrus 3-Annual crop 4-Forest 5-Pasture 6-Others
(a) (b)
2
3
3
3
4
4
1
1
11
1
41
5
5
5
6
6
Thematic sugarcane map Landsat image interpreted
(a) 04/03/2006; (b) 11/09/2006; (c) 24/04/2007 e (d) 15/07/2007
Sugarcane Expansion
(c) (d)
(a) Soybean (b) Bare soil (c) Sugarcane
Sugarcane Renovation
Área(1.000
ha)
Taxaanu
aldecrescimen
to(%
)
Sugarcane area and annual growth rate from crop year 2005/06 to 2008/09
Ann
ual g
row
th ra
te %
Total area available for harvest Annual growth rate
Canasat‐Harvest
Sugarcanewithandwithoutpre‐harvestburning
Safra 2006/07
Safra 2007/08
SugarcaneFieldBurnings
• Federalini:a:ve(1999)– Banallsugarcanefieldburningsby2021inflatterrainandby2031otherwise
• SãoPauloState– Baninflatterrainby2014andotherwiseby2017
• 2007/2008(mechanizedharvest)– 36%inBrazil– 45%inSãoPauloState
Landuseclassespriortosugarcaneexpansionfrom2005to2008inSãoPauloState
Landusepriortosugarcaneexpansionfrom2005to2008inSãoPauloState
Landuseclassespriortosugarcaneexpansionon2007and2008intheSouth‐CentralRegion
Spatial-temporal analysis of land use cover change using MODIS images
from 2000 to 2008
Color Composition of Principal Components (1-R, 2-G, 3-B) derived from MODIS images transformed to the vegetation fraction of a linear mixture model (Shimabukuro & Smith, 1991).
Overlayed sugarcane map
Pasture Sugarcane
Spectral-temporal trajectory from 2000 to 2008 of MODIS images indicating land use changes from pasture to sugarcane
Vege
tatio
n Fr
actio
n
Year
Agriculture Sugarcane
Spectral-temporal trajectory from 2000 to 2008 of MODIS images indicating land use changes from agriculture to sugarcane
Vege
tatio
n Fr
actio
n
Year
Pasture Agriculture Sugarcane
Spectral-temporal trajectory from 2000 to 2008 of MODIS images indicating land use changes from pasture to agriculture to sugarcane
Vege
tatio
n Fr
actio
n
Year
iLUC
• S:llunderdevelopment
• Defini:ons(Gnansounouetal.,2008)– Spa:aliLUC(displacementofpriorproduc:ontootherloca:on)
– TemporaliLUC(shi`inglanduseinthesameloca:on)
– UseiLUC(shi`ingbiomassuseinthesameloca:on)– Displacedac:vity/useiLUC(avoidinglandusechangebyshi`ingpreviousac:vitytoothercountries)
iLUC
• Addi:onallandmaybehappeningdespiteexpansionofbiofuels’feedstockproduc:on
• Whenexpansionofbiofuel’sfeedstocktakesplaceinconjunc:onwithexpansionofagriculturalproductsforfoodproduc:onitishardtoproveeffect‐causerela:onsbetweenbiofuel’sexpansionanddeforesta:on,forinstance.
iLUC
• Needfordatatosupporttheideathatsugarcaneexpansionisleadingtoanincreaseinthelandproduc:vity,ratherthanpromo:ngincorpora:ononnewlandforfoodproduc:on,asgrainsandpasturelandaredisplaced.
• Strongincreaseinpastureproduc:vity,measuredbystockingra:o,maketheBraziliancaseastrongexampleofhowharditistoempiricallyprovetheiLUCeffectassociatedwiththeexpansionofsugarcane.
Projec:onofcropsandpasturedisplacementbysugarcaneexpansion(2008‐2018)
On‐goingwork
• EstablishmentofaTaskGrouponiLUC– Researchins:tutes,academia,sta:s:csins:tu:ons,SecretariesofAgriculture,Pasture
• Model’sdevelopment– ICONE(Ins:tuteforTradeandInterna:onalNego:a:onsStudies)
• Modelisbasedondemandresponsetopricechangesandsupplyresponsetomarketreturns(profitability)changes.
• Na:onalandregionalpricesarecalculatedaccordingtoabasicassump:onofmicroeconomics:theyareachievedwhensupplyanddemandpricesforeachcoincide,genera:ngamarketequilibrium.