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Recap of Water Year 2008 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2009
Francisco Munoz-ArriolaAlan F. Hamlet Shraddhanand ShuklaDennis P. Lettenmaier
•JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Washington
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Recap of WY 2008
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ECMRWF ENSO anomaly 2008
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
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Validation Plot for 2008 Forecast (All Cool ENSO composite)
Mod
ified
Flo
w (
cfs)
The Dalles
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150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
NINO3.4 Index Anomaly
Ap
ril-
Se
pte
mb
er
Av
era
ge
S
tre
am
flo
w
1916-2002
April-September Naturalized Flow for the Columbia River at The Dalles, OR from Historic Water Years vs January Nino 3.4 Anomalies.
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5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Nino 3.4 Anomaly (C)
Apr
il-S
epte
mbe
r A
vg N
atur
aliz
ed
Str
eam
flow
(cf
s)
Natural Flows at Milner 1928-1989
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Nat
ural
Flo
w (
KA
F)
Red = long term meanBlue = ensemble meanGray = ensemble membersBlack = range of observations
Simulated Natural Flow at Milner (ESP all years)
Milner
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Nat
ural
Flo
w (
KA
F)
Red = long term meanBlue = ensemble meanGray = ensemble membersBlack = range of observations
Simulated Natural Flow at Milner (ESP cool ENSO)
Milner
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WY 2008 Forecast
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WY 2007 WY 2008
Potential Implications of ENSO Transition States
WY 2009
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http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/nino_plumes_public_s3/
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ECMRWF ENSO anomaly 2009
0.2
-0.6
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150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
NINO3.4 Index Anomaly
Ap
ril-
Se
pte
mb
er
Av
era
ge
S
tre
am
flo
w1916-2002
April-September Naturalized Flow for the Columbia River at The Dalles, OR from Historic Water Years vs January Nino 3.4 Anomalies.
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Natural Flows at Milner 1928-1989
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West-Wide Hydrologic Forecast
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UW Forecast Approach Schematic
NCDC COOP station obs.
up to 3 months from
current
local scale (1/8 degree) weather inputs
soil moisturesnowpack
VIC Hydrologic model spin up
SNOTEL
Update
streamflow, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, runoff
25th Day, Month 01-2 years back
index stn. real-time
met. forcings for spin-up
gap
Hydrologic forecast simulation
Month 12
INITIAL STATE
ObservedSWE
Assimilation
ensemble forecasts ESP traces CPC-based outlook NCEP CFS ensemble NSIPP-1 ensemble
West-wide System
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Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)
ICsSpin-up Forecast
observed
recentmet data to generate
“perfect” ICs
ensemble of historical met datato generate ensemble
forecast
hydrologicstate
Applications: climate forecast
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Soil Moisture and Snow Water Anomalies
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SWE and SM
SimulatedClimatological
March AprilFebruary
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SWE and SM
SimulatedClimatological
MarchFebruary April
July August September
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Based on Milner Climatology 1960-2005
All Years
Ensemble Mean
Climatological Mean
Ensemble Members
Climatological Extremes
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0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
S O N D J F M A M J J A
Nat
ura
l Str
eam
flo
w (
cfs)
Based on Dalles Climatology 1901-2005
All Years
Ensemble Mean
Climatological Mean
Ensemble Members
Climatological Extremes
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Based on Milner Climatology 1960-2005
ENSO-Neutral Years
Ensemble Mean
Climatological Mean
Ensemble Members
Climatological Extremes
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0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
S O N D J F M A M J J A
Nat
ura
l Str
eam
flo
w (
cfs)
Based on Dalles Climatology 1901-2005
ENSO-Neutral Years
Ensemble Mean
Climatological Mean
Ensemble Members
Climatological Extremes
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3.4 Range 2009
-0.6 to 0.2
Based on Milner Climatology 1901-2005
Ensemble Mean
Climatological Mean
Ensemble Members
Climatological Extremes
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0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
S O N D J F M A M J J A
Nat
ura
l Str
eam
flo
w (
cfs)
3.4 Range 2009
-0.6 to 0.2
Based on Dalles Climatology 1901-2005
Ensemble Mean
Climatological Mean
Ensemble Members
Climatological Extremes
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West-Wide Hydrologic Forecast
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West Wide Forecast (1961-2000)
All Years
Ensemble Mean
Climatological MeanEnsemble Members
Climatological Extremes
ENSO-years Mean (N)
Milner
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0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
S O N D J F M A M J J A
Nat
ura
l Str
eam
flo
w (
cfs)
West Wide Forecast (1961-2000)
All Years
Ensemble Mean
Climatological MeanEnsemble Members
Climatological Extremes
ENSO-years Mean (N)
Dalles
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ENSO-Neutral Years
West Wide Forecast (1961-2000)
Ensemble Mean
Climatological MeanEnsemble Members
Climatological Extremes
ENSO-years Mean (N)
Milner
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0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
S O N D J F M A M J J A
Na
tura
l S
tre
am
flo
w (
cfs
)
ENSO-Neutral Years
West Wide Forecast (1961-2000)
Ensemble Mean
Climatological MeanEnsemble Members
Climatological Extremes
ENSO-years Mean (N)
Dalles
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3.4 Range 2009
-0.6 to 0.2
West Wide Forecast (1961-2000)
Ensemble Mean
Climatological MeanEnsemble Members
Climatological Extremes
ENSO-years Mean (N)
Milner
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0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
S O N D J F M A M J J A
Na
tura
l S
tre
am
flo
w (
cfs
)
3.4 Range 2009
-0.6 to 0.2
West Wide Forecast (1961-2000)
Ensemble Mean
Climatological MeanEnsemble Members
Climatological Extremes
ENSO-years Mean (N)
Dalles
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UW Forecast System in the Snake River
Hells Canyon Dam
Milner
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UW Forecast System in the Hydropower-related stations at the
Columbia River
Grand Coulee
Chief Joseph Dam
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Conclusions:•Cool ENSO event during the winter of 2007-2008, increased above average Apr-Sep flow at Milner•High snowpack during winter-spring was associated with low values in soil moisture•The WY 2008 ESP forecast predicted increased likelihood of wet conditions. Observed summer flows at Milner in 2007 were above average (~25% of normal for April-Sept)•Current soil moisture conditions may contribute to slightly reduce streamflow generation during the Jan-June period by 3%.•The west-wide forecast system predicts flows similar to those observed in the climatologies for the Dalles , However for the Milner stations there is a increased likelihood of drought and consequently flows slight below normal for the coming water year.•Slightly below 1961-2000 climatological values•Slightly above -0.6-to-0.2 ENSO neutral values•On the average of ENSO neutral years
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WY 2007 WY 2008
Potential Implications of ENSO Transition States
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1904 1.47
1907 1.00
1921 1.00
1925 0.49
1932 0.39
1943 0.88
1965 0.90
1971 1.55
1974 2.22
1984 0.58
1989 -0.40
1996 0.93
1999 0.89
Historic Dalles Apr-Sept streamflow anomalies for water years with previous winter warm ENSO, current winter cool ENSO
Stats:
12 of 13 above 0.39
11 of 13 above 0.49
9 of 13 above 0.88
WY Std Ann.
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Nat
ural
Str
eam
flow
(cf
s)Based on Dalles Climatology 1901-2003
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1932 -0.235
1943 1.137
1965 1.238
1971 2.170
1974 1.686
1984 1.883
1989 -0.080
Historic Milner Apr-Sept streamflow anomalies for water years with previous winter warm ENSO, current winter cool ENSO
WY Std Ann.
Stats:
5 of 7 above 1.1
3 of 7 above 1.7
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enso_2008 enso_trans_2008
Based on Milner ESP 1961-2000N
atur
al F
low
(K
AF
)
Nat
ural
Flo
w (
KA
F)