Reasonable Progress Demonstration Case Study
for Saguaro Wilderness Area
Arizona Regional Haze Stakeholder Meeting
January 22, 2007
Saguaro Wilderness Area
Source: WRAP Causes of Haze Website (http://coha.dri.edu)
Saguaro West (SAWE)
Saguaro NM (SAGU)
Source: VIEWS websitehttp://vista.cira.colostate.edu
SAGU Baseline Extinction Budget
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Compositionhttp://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss/
SAWE Baseline Extinction Budget
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Composition
20% Best Day Compositionat SAWE and SAGU
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
NO3 SO4 EC OC CM Fine Soil
Aerosol Species
Ligh
t Ext
inct
ion
(Mm
-1)
SAWESAGU
Source: Chart made from two spreadsheets posted at:WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Composition
20% Worst Day Compositionat SAWE and SAGU
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
NO3 SO4 EC OC CM Fine Soil
Aerosol Species
Ligh
t Ext
inct
ion
(Mm
-1)
SAWESAGU
Source: Chart made from two spreadsheets posted at:WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Composition
Reasonable Progress Under the Federal Regional Haze Rule
• States set reasonable progress goals based on:– Consideration of 4 statutory factors
• Costs• Time necessary for compliance• Energy and non-air quality environmental impacts• Remaining useful life of potentially affected sources
– The uniform rate of progress (measured in deciviews) necessary to attain natural conditions by 2064
• States adopt long-term strategies to achieve these goals
• States implement BART
Uniform Rate of Progress (worst days)
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Trends
Uniform Rate of Progress (worst days)
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Trends
Uniform Rate of Progress• Essentially a 20% reduction in manmade haze
(dv) per planning period (10 years)• Heavily dependent on:
– Assumptions regarding future natural conditions– Contribution of non-WRAP sources to baseline– Representativeness of 2000-04 baseline
• 24 of the 77 Class I sites have no more than 3 years of data in baseline period
– These issues more accute in the West• Haze rule promulgated in 1999
A Species-Based Approach to RP
• Isolate some of the URP issues previously noted• Species differ significantly from one another in
their:– Contribution to visibility impairment– Spatial and seasonal distributions– Source types– Contribution from natrual and international sources– Emissions data quality– Atmospheric science quality– Tools available for assessment and projection
SO2 NOx OC CMEmission Sources
Almost entirely anthro.Mostly point sources.
Mostly anthro.Mix of combustion sources.
Diverse.Mix of anthro, fire, and biogenic VOCs.
Diverse.Very difficult to partition wb dust into nat/anthro.
Emissions Data Quality
Very good overall. Activity data less good for area sources.
Good.Activity data less good, some coding concerns w/ smaller point, area, and O&G sources.
Fair.Good activity data & conf. in PM2.5 emissions, but uncertain spec. of PM2.5 & bio. VOCs.
Poor, except for some locales.Categorically complete but accuracy very uncertain.
Emission Projections
Very good.Uncertain about area sources.
Good.Uncertain about offshore and O&G.
Fair.What to expect from fire?
Fair.What to expect from wb dust?
Atmospheric Science Quality
Very good.Meteorology probably largest uncertainty.
Fair.Chemistry more complex, but meteorology too.
Fair.Most complex, least understood, but model perf. OK.
Fair.No major chemistry, but model resolution, met. insufficient.
WRAP Tools Emission Inv.CMAQ Proj.PSAT Apport.
Emission Inv.CMAQ Proj.PSAT Apport.
Emission Inv.CMAQ Proj.PMF, WEP.
Emission Inv.Causes of Dust.WEP.
Draft WRAP Protocol for Demonstrating Reasonable Progress
• For each site and species …• Estimate progress expected from Base Case + BART in
2018• Determine any other LTSs which may be reasonable for
that pollutant and recalculate 2018 species concentration• Add up improvements from all species into dv• This becomes the RPG for the 20% worst days• Explain why this is less than URP
– Large international and natural contributions, large uncertainties in dust inventory preclude action, etc.
Determine URP for a species
IsBase+BART
projection better than
URP?
IsWRAPAnthro
reduction> 20%?
Are thereany importantuncontrolled
sources?
Are thereany important
uncontrolled orundercontrolled
sources?
Repeat for other species.
Evaluate emission & airquality trends more closely
Identify LTSs for thesesources considering the4 RPG and other factors
identified in the RHR.
Adopt, commit to adopt, orcommit to further evaluation.
Determine reductions at C1A.
Add up all species reductionsto get a RPG for worst days.
Eplain why it’s less than defaultURP but still reasonable.Set goal for best days.
Y
Y Y
N*
N N
N
Y
* Note, if no LTS beyond BART is developed, then the 4 RPG factorsare inherently taken into account via BART.
Interstate coop key.
SAGU Species Trendsand URP Glidepaths (Worst Days)
Peak day for OC on 10/30/03. Peak day for CM on May 31, 2003.
SAWE Species Trendsand URP Glidepaths (Worst Days)
Peak day for OC on 10/30/03. Peak day for CM on May 31, 2003.
SAGU Upwind Residence TimeOn 20% Wost Visibility Days (2000-04)
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potential
Ammonium Nitrate (NO3)
NO3
• Is the Base+BART projection better than URP?– Yes: CMAQ base case projections for 2018
show a 20% reduction in extinction due to NO3.
• Results do not yet include BART• Results not yet available on TSS
– Precise projection method not yet finalized
• WRAP anthro reduction is 28%– See PSAT results on next slide
NO3
• Are there any important uncontrolled upwind sources?– Use TSS to examine inventory upwind
• PSAT results• PMF results• WEP results• Emission inventories
SAGU NO3 PSAT Results2002 and 2018 base cases
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> SOx/NOx Tracer
SAWE NO3 PSAT Results2002 and 2018 base cases
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> SOx/NOx Tracer
SAGU PMF Apportionment of NitrateWorst Visibility Days (2001-2004)
Smoke0%
SO4-Rich Secondary
2%Oil Comb. (Shipping)
0%
NO3-Rich Secondary
92%
Dust20%
Mobile / Road Dust2%
Dust1 (w/ NO3)4%
Mixture (Coal, Smelting)
0%
Source: Chart made after manipulation of data posted on WRAP Causes of Hase Website:http://coha.dri.edu/web/general/tools_PMFModeling.html
SAGU NO3 WEP Results (2000-04)Sources and Areas of Potential Nitrogen Oxide Emissions Influence
2000-2004 Baseline for Saguaro National Park, AZ20% Worst Visibility Days
86.2
3.70.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 2.3 1.8 0.4
3.30.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califor
nia
Colora
doIda
ho
Montan
a
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dakota
Oregon
South
Dakota Utah
Was
hingto
n
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easter
n US
Mexico
Canad
a
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al D
ista
nce
Wei
ghte
d Em
is x
Res
Tim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
SAWE NO3 WEP Results (2000-04)Sources and Areas of Potential Nitrogen Oxide Emissions Influence
2000-2004 Baseline for Saguaro West National Park, AZ20% Worst Visibility Days
85.2
5.00.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
2.8 1.2 0.23.9
0.10
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califor
nia
Colora
doIda
ho
Montan
a
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dakota
Oregon
South
Dakota Utah
Was
hingto
n
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easter
n US
Mexico
Canad
a
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al D
ista
nce
Wei
ghte
d Em
is x
Res
Tim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
AZ NOx Emissions
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Point Area
WRAP Area
O&G
Off-Shore
On-Road
Mobile
Off-Road
Mobile
Road D
ust
Fugitive D
ust
WB Dust
Anthro Fire
Natural
Fire
Biogenic
Total
Anthro
Tons
Per
Yea
r
2002 (tpy) 2018 (tpy)
-35%
Source: WRAP website: Emissions Forum pivot tables: http://www.wrapair.org/forums/ssjf/pivot.html
Major NOx Sources in the 2018Arizona Point Source Pivot Table
External Combustion Boilers Electric Generation Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal CHOLLA POWER PLANT 14,576CORONADO GENERATING STATION 12,937TUCSON ELECTRIC POWER CO-SPRINGERVILLE 8,847AZ ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE INC 6,782IRVINGTON GENERATING STATION 2,705Future Coal EGU (B) 1,675Future Coal EGU (A) 1,675
Natural Gas 4,692Process Gas 143Distillate Oil 9
Industrial 1,895Commercial/Institutional 529
Internal Combustion Engines Electric Generation Natural Gas 5,465Process Gas 168Distillate Oil (Diesel) 99
Commercial/Institutional 3,478Industrial 1,547Engine Testing 114
Industrial Processes Mineral Products 8,005Oil and Gas Production 190Secondary Metal Production 154Food and Agriculture 91Primary Metal Production 88
Source Category PSAT WEP Notes
Boundary conditions
Outside state authority.High uncertainty.
CA mobile sources Note large reductions (51% in PSAT).
AZ mobile sources Note large reductions (55% in PSAT).
AZ point sources BART not yet included. Cement plants second to EGUs.
Most Likely NOx Sources Significantly Contributing to NO3at SAGU On the 20% Worst Visibility Days
Ammonium Sulfate (SO4)
SO4• Is the Base+BART projection better than URP?
– No: CMAQ base case projections for 2018 show only a 6% reduction in extinction due to SO4.
• Sources outside the WRAP have a large influence• Results not yet available on TSS
• Is WRAP anthro reduction > 20%?– No: PSAT apportionment shows only a 9% reduction
from WRAP anthro SO2 sources• BART not fully included yet• Need to correct (reduce) 2018 Hayden emissions
SO4
• Are there any important uncontrolled or undercontrolled upwind sources?– Use TSS to examine inventory upwind
• PSAT results• PMF results• WEP results• Emission inventories
SAGU SO4 PSAT Results2002 and 2018 base cases
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> SOx/NOx Tracer
SAWE SO4 PSAT Results2002 and 2018 base cases
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> SOx/NOx Tracer
SAGU PMF Apportionment of SulfateWorst Visibility Days (2001-2004)
Oil Comb. (Shipping)
32%
Smoke9%
SO4-Rich Secondary
54%
NO3-Rich Secondary
2%Dust2
0%Mobile / Road Dust
0%
Dust1 (w/ NO3)1%
Mixture (Coal, Smelting)
2%
Source: Chart made after manipulation of data posted on WRAP Causes of Hase Website:http://coha.dri.edu/web/general/tools_PMFModeling.html
SAGU SO4 WEP Results (2000-04)Sources and Areas of Potential Sulfur Oxide Emissions Influence
2000-2004 Baseline for Saguaro National Park, AZ20% Worst Visibility Days
48.3
0.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2
35.3
3.0 1.1
8.3
0.30
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califor
nia
Colora
doIda
ho
Montan
a
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dakota
Oregon
South
Dakota Utah
Was
hingto
n
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easter
n US
Mexico
Canad
a
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al D
ista
nce
Wei
ghte
d Em
is x
Res
Tim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
SAWE SO4 WEP Results (2000-04)Sources and Areas of Potential Sulfur Oxide Emissions Influence
2000-2004 Baseline for Saguaro West National Park, AZ20% Worst Visibility Days
40.7
1.7 0.1 0.1 0.12.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2
38.7
2.5 0.6
11.4
0.20
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califor
nia
Colora
doIda
ho
Montan
a
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dakota
Oregon
South
Dakota Utah
Was
hingto
n
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easter
n US
Mexico
Canad
a
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al D
ista
nce
Wei
ghte
d Em
is x
Res
Tim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
AZ SO2 Emissions
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Point Area
WRAP Area
O&G
Off-Shore
On-Road
Mobile
Off-Road
Mobile
Road D
ust
Fugitive D
ust
WB Dust
Anthro Fire
Natural
Fire
Biogenic
Total
Anthro
Tons
Per
Yea
r
2002 (tpy) 2018 (tpy)
-3%
Changes In Point and Area Source SO2 Emissions In AZ
Area Source ChangesSCC1_DESC SCC3_DESC SCC6_DESC 2002 2018Stationary Source Fuel Combustion Industrial Distillate Oil 1,117 1,402
Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal 918 948Residual Oil 55 248
Commercial/Institutional Distillate Oil 361 460Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal 2 3
AZ Point Source Changes (Base18b - Plan02c)Springerville+Coronado+Apache -16,516Irvington 2,200Future Coal (AZ) 3,350Future Coal (Navajo-AZ) 1,675Copper 4,562Industrial Gas Boilers -500Mineral Products (cement+lime) 900Total Emissions Modeled -4,329
11-State EGU SO2 Trend
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1998 2002 2005 2018b 2018 BART
SO2
(tpy)
PSAT Modeling Cases
Most Likely SO2 Sources Significantly Contributing to SO4at SAGU On the 20% Worst Visibility Days
Source Category PSAT WEP Notes
Boundary Conditions
Outside state authority.High uncertainty.
Pacific Ocean Outside state authority.
Mexico point & area Outside state authority.Check coastal point sources.
CENRAP point CAIR yields 23% reduction.
East U.S. point CAIR yields 56% reduction.
AZ point Contribution increases 32%. Some BART not yet included. Error at Hayden. Note broad trends.
AZ area Contribution increases 27%. Should check area source oil & coal use.
Organic Carbon (OC)
Source: WRAP Technical Support System
AORGA Change = +6% (secondary anthropogenic OC)AORGB Change = +1% (secondary biogenic OC, inc. smoke)AORGPA Change = -1% (primary OC, inc. smoke)
SAGU OC CMAQ Results 2002 and 2018 base cases
SAWE OC CMAQ Results 2002 and 2018 base cases
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Organic Aerosol Tracer
AORGA Change = 0% (secondary anthropogenic OC)AORGB Change = +2% (secondary biogenic OC, inc. smoke)AORGPA Change = -1% (primary OC, inc. smoke)
SAGU PMF Apportionment of Organic CarbonWorst Visibility Days (2001-2004)
SO4-Rich Secondary
26%
Smoke26%
Oil Comb. (Shipping)
2%
NO3-Rich Secondary
14%
Dust21%
Mobile / Road Dust26%
Dust1 (w/ NO3)3%
Mixture (Coal, Smelting)
2%
Source: Chart made after manipulation of data posted on WRAP Causes of Hase Website:http://coha.dri.edu/web/general/tools_PMFModeling.html
Sources and Areas of Potential Organic Carbon Emissions Influence2000-2004 Baseline for Saguaro National Park, AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
92.7
2.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.2 2.0 0.10
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califor
nia
Colora
doIda
ho
Montan
a
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dakota
Oregon
South
Dakota Utah
Was
hingto
n
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easter
n US
Mexico
Canad
a
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al D
ista
nce
Wei
ghte
d Em
is x
Res
Tim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
SAGU OC WEP Results (2000-04)
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
SAWE OC WEP Results (2000-04)Sources and Areas of Potential Organic Carbon Emissions Influence
2000-2004 Baseline for Saguaro West National Park, AZ20% Worst Visibility Days
89.3
4.00.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.1
3.60.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califor
nia
Colora
doIda
ho
Montan
a
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dakota
Oregon
South
Dakota Utah
Was
hingto
n
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easter
n US
Mexico
Canad
a
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al D
ista
nce
Wei
ghte
d Em
is x
Res
Tim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
AZ OC Emissions
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Point Area
WRAP Area
O&G
Off-Shore
On-Road
Mobile
Off-Road
Mobile
Road D
ust
Fugitive D
ust
WB Dust
Anthro Fire
Natural
Fire
Biogenic
Total
Anthro
Tons
Per
Yea
r
2002 (tpy) 2018 (tpy)
+6%
Dust
SAGU CM WEP Results (2000-04)Sources and Areas of Potential Coarse PM Emissions Influence
2000-2004 Baseline for Saguaro National Park, AZ20% Worst Visibility Days
63.2
1.9 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9 2.70.1
27.2
0.20
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califor
nia
Colora
doIda
ho
Montan
a
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dakota
Oregon
South
Dakota Utah
Was
hingto
n
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easter
n US
Mexico
Canad
a
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al D
ista
nce
Wei
ghte
d Em
is x
Res
Tim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
SAWE CM WEP Results (2000-04)Sources and Areas of Potential Coarse PM Emissions Influence
2000-2004 Baseline for Saguaro West National Park, AZ20% Worst Visibility Days
59.7
2.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0 1.9 0.0
32.9
0.10
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califor
nia
Colora
doIda
ho
Montan
a
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dakota
Oregon
South
Dakota Utah
Was
hingto
n
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easter
n US
Mexico
Canad
a
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al D
ista
nce
Wei
ghte
d Em
is x
Res
Tim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
3-Day Back Trajectories for May 31, 2003
Source: Causes of Haze website dust analysis page:http://coha.dri.edu/dust/index.html
SAWE1 vs SAGU1 Coarse Mass Concentration (ug/m3)10/31/01 - 12/29/03
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
SAGU1
SAW
E1y = 3.3 + 1.3xr2 = 0.69
The high peaks occur in the spring and summer and may be wind-driven.Fine soil concentrations seem elevated at SAWE1 relative to SAGU1 in the Oct – Dec time frame. Is this the result of agricultural activity in the area?
Fine Soil Concentrations (ug/m3) -- 10/31/01 - 12/29/03
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2001
1031
2001
1121
2001
1212
2002
0102
2002
0123
2002
0213
2002
0306
2002
0327
2002
0417
2002
0508
2002
0529
2002
0619
2002
0710
2002
0731
2002
0821
2002
0911
2002
1002
2002
1023
2002
1113
2002
1204
2002
1225
2003
0115
2003
0205
2003
0226
2003
0319
2003
0409
2003
0430
2003
0521
2003
0611
2003
0702
2003
0723
2003
0813
2003
0903
2003
0924
2003
1015
2003
1105
2003
1126
2003
1217
Date
SAGU1 SAWE1
2002 2003
Extra Slides(2018 WEP Results)
SAGU NO3 WEP Results (2018)Sources and Areas of Potential Nitrogen Oxide Emissions Influence
2018 Projections for Saguaro National Park, AZ20% Worst Visibility Days
82.3
3.50.3 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2
3.5 2.0 0.45.3
0.30
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califor
nia
Colora
doIda
ho
Montan
a
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dakota
Oregon
South
Dakota Utah
Was
hingto
n
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easter
n US
Mexico
Canad
a
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al D
ista
nce
Wei
ghte
d Em
is x
Res
Tim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
SAWE NO3 WEP Results (2018)Sources and Areas of Potential Nitrogen Oxide Emissions Influence
2018 Projections for Saguaro West National Park, AZ20% Worst Visibility Days
80.9
4.70.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
4.11.4 0.2
6.30.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califor
nia
Colora
doIda
ho
Montan
a
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dakota
Oregon
South
Dakota Utah
Was
hingto
n
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easter
n US
Mexico
Canad
a
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al D
ista
nce
Wei
ghte
d Em
is x
Res
Tim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
SAGU SO4 WEP Results (2018)Sources and Areas of Potential Sulfur Oxide Emissions Influence
2018 Projections for Saguaro National Park, AZ20% Worst Visibility Days
50.5
0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2
35.1
2.6 0.6
8.3
0.30
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califor
nia
Colora
doIda
ho
Montan
a
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dakota
Oregon
South
Dakota Utah
Was
hingto
n
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easter
n US
Mexico
Canad
a
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al D
ista
nce
Wei
ghte
d Em
is x
Res
Tim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
SAWE SO4 WEP Results (2018)Sources and Areas of Potential Sulfur Oxide Emissions Influence
2018 Projections for Saguaro West National Park, AZ20% Worst Visibility Days
41.4
1.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2
40.0
2.1 0.4
11.8
0.20
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califor
nia
Colora
doIda
ho
Montan
a
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dakota
Oregon
South
Dakota Utah
Was
hingto
n
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easter
n US
Mexico
Canad
a
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al D
ista
nce
Wei
ghte
d Em
is x
Res
Tim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
SAGU CM WEP Results (2018)Sources and Areas of Potential Coarse PM Emissions Influence
2018 Projections for Saguaro National Park, AZ20% Worst Visibility Days
77.3
1.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.1
16.4
0.10
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califor
nia
Colora
doIda
ho
Montan
a
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dakota
Oregon
South
Dakota Utah
Was
hingto
n
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easter
n US
Mexico
Canad
a
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al D
ista
nce
Wei
ghte
d Em
is x
Res
Tim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
SAWE CM WEP Results (2018)Sources and Areas of Potential Coarse PM Emissions Influence
2018 Projections for Saguaro West National Park, AZ20% Worst Visibility Days
71.6
1.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.0
22.6
0.10
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califor
nia
Colora
doIda
ho
Montan
a
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dakota
Oregon
South
Dakota Utah
Was
hingto
n
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easter
n US
Mexico
Canad
a
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al D
ista
nce
Wei
ghte
d Em
is x
Res
Tim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital