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Reading… Writing…. Arithmetic…..
Simplify to Quantify Bernard F. Pettingill, Jr., PhDPalm Beach Gardens, FLOctober 2010Las Vegas
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INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION
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•Background•Contact Points•Terms of Art•Presentation - Putting It All Together
OutlineOutline
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BUTCHER BAKER
CANDLESTICK-MAKER
JACK JILL
Juror ProfileJuror Profile
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Potential Jurors
Keep Estate Tax
Get Rid of Estate Tax
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•Banker•Engineer•Nurse Practitioner•Arms Crossed / Legs•Age Factor•Note Takers•Sleeper•Questions from Jurors
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JuryJury
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•New Orleans•Military HS•Catholic / Ivy League College / Ph.D.•England (Foreign)•Professor (Medical School - 4 yrs)•Articles•Three Kids - Teacher / Empathy•Organizations•Court TV / Congress•Two Grandkids
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HooksHooks
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CREDIBILITY
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Jury AwarenessJury Awareness
•Posture / Clothes / Watch / Car / Truck•Body Language - Rocket Clemens; McGuire •Out of the Box•Permission
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•Life Expectancy / Work Life Expectancy•Inflation Measures - (Local News Stories)•Medflation•Interest Rates (IRR)•Consumption Expenses•Replacement Services at Home•Paradox of Thrift
Economic TermsEconomic Terms
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CPICPI
• Typical Market Basket• 95 Locations• Twice / Month• 211 Consumer Goods• Average Prices
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CPI - cont.CPI - cont.
1. Food & Beverages2. Housing3. Apparel4. Transportation5. Recreation6. Education & Communication7. Other Goods & Services8. MEDICAL CARE
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LOCAL NEWSPAPERLOCAL NEWSPAPER
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GIGOPRN
QD / BID / TIDDUCES TECUM
CETERIS PARIBUSSWAG
AbbreviationsAbbreviations
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OLD INDICATORS
• AUTO• HOUSING• RETAIL
ForecastingForecasting
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NEW INDICATORS
• WAL-MART• STARBUCKS• APPLE• NETFLIX• PAWN SHOPS• ANIMAL RESCUE LEAGUE• McDONALDS• DOLLAR STORE
Forecasting - cont.Forecasting - cont.
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RatesRates
•Discounting to PV - Recent Historic Rate
•Alaskan - Total Offset
•Nominal Rate / Average Rate - 25 yrs
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• JUNK DOWN• MUNIS DOWN• CORPORATE DOWN• TREASURIES
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Discount RatesDiscount Rates
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Verdict
Bartow
3/2009
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$65 M$65 M
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Life Expectancy
•Census Data - 2010
•Optimal Care - Based on L.E.
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LIFE EXPECTANCY
LESSON 1LESSON 1
= 2.9 = 1.7
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Classification of Economists
LaborPublic PolicyFinancial
AgriculturalBehavioralHealth/Medical
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Not The Same
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• ENGLAND, CANADA & SWEDEN • INSURE 30+ MILLION PEOPLE - H.R. 3200 • AMERICA’S AFFORDABLE HEALTH CHOICES ACT • ELECTRONIC MEDICAL RECORDS
Nationalized Health Care
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•New Technology•Waste, Inefficiency & Fraud•Drug Company R&D•Aging Population
Reasons for Cost Increases
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•ELECTIVE SURGERY
•WAITING LIST - HERNIA REPAIR
•RENAL DIALYSIS
•55+ Yr Old, GREAT BRITAIN – DENIED….DEAD
Health Care - DILEMMAHealth Care - DILEMMA
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•SIXTY YEAR OLD MALE POSTAL WORKER
•SINGLE MOTHER OF FOUR CHILDREN
•EIGHTEEN YEAR OLD NEVER WORKED
•RETIRED PALM BEACHER
Organ Replacement - DILEMMAOrgan Replacement - DILEMMA
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MEDICAL INFLATION RATES
•Current (NOW) = 3.5%
•Recent (10Yrs) = 4.0%
•Historic (25Yrs) = 5.0%
LESSON 2LESSON 2
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Medical CareGrowth Rates
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YEAR1995
2000
2004
2006
2008
2010
MEDICAL5.1%
4.3%
4.3%
4.2%
3.8%
3.5%
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AMERICA’S AFFORDABLE HEALTH CHOICES ACT
HR 3200
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?
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1. Therapists / Nurses2. Treating / Evaluating M.D.’s3. Continuation of Care Planner / Rehab Expert4. Economist
Sequence of Experts
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Continuation of CareContinuation of CareLife Care PlanLife Care Plan
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•Routine M.D. Visits•Therapies•ADL’s•Diagnostics•Orthopedic Equipment•Supplies
Categories of Need
•Attendant CareAttendant Care36
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Boston Vs New Haven• Large Med-Schools• Well Informed M.D.’s• Same Region Country• No Difference in Socio-Economic Status
Treatment PatternsTreatment Patterns
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• White Female• Age 2.0• Life Expectancy = 79.9 years• 24 Hour Nursing Care (HOME)• $30.50/Hour/LPN• Discount Factor = 4.0%
ExampleExample
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•Current (NOW) = 3.5%
•Recent (10Yrs) = 4.0%
•Historic (25Yrs) = 5.0%
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MEDICAL INFLATIONMEDICAL INFLATION
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Current: Growth Rate = 3.5%Present Value = $17.5m
Recent: Growth Rate = 4.0%Present Value = $21.2m
Historic: Growth Rate = 5.0%Present Value = $31.1M
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RESULTSRESULTS
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INTEGRITY
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• Recent Life Expectancy Tables
• Medical vs. General Inflation
• Sample - Goods / Services1940, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90’s
Trial Charts
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Presentation
•Earning Capacity - Cistern•Present Value - ‘Car Loan’•Court Reporter Interruptions•9/11 - Security•Jack Pot Justice / Home Cooking
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VerdictFort Meyers - John Romano, Esq.
Florida
12/2009
$44.9 M
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Verdict
Miami, FL
4/2010
$11.6 M
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Verdict
Florida
9/2010
$8.2 M
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Verdict
Florida
9/2010
$21.6 M
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Verdict
Little Rock, AR
9/2010
$20.1 M
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Verdict - Ford
Jackson, MS
9/2010
$131 M
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Summary 3 Lessons
• LE
• MEDFLATION
• LESS IS MORE
LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
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CONSULTING ECONOMIST
PHONE (561) 622-0330CELL (561) 346-7828FAX (561) 624-2854TOLL FREE (800) 662-0330
#93 Sandbourne LaneP.G.A. NATIONALPALM BEACH GARDENS, FL 33418E-mail: [email protected]
BERNARD F. PETTINGILL, PH.D.
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•Homework - CSI•Financial Records•Tax Returns - Official IRS Records - Alignment, Dates, SS#, Signatures, Copies, Income / Expense Flow•Past Meds Minimal•Darden - (doc location: G drive) - CSI
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