![Page 1: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
RA VI RCC Network
J.P. Céron - Climatology [email protected]
LRF Node
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
![Page 2: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
2
Members of the RCC Network (RA VI) Node on Long-range Forecasting
Leading institutions:
• Météo-France and Roshydromet
Participants:• Météo-France;• Roshydromet; • Norwegian Meteorological Institute; • Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia (RHMSS);• Turkish State Meteorological Service
![Page 3: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
3
In the framework of GFCS the RCC Node on Long-range Forecasting provides operational services related to seasonal to inter-annual forecasts by interpreting products from GPCs, generating relevant regional and sub-regional products.
Service overview: - Regional forecast products based on GPC data for National Meteorological Services of the region; - Graphs and maps of the performance of GPCs’ models; - Monthly and quarterly bulletins analyzing and interpreting GPC products as well as; - Regional and sub-regional seasonal outlooks; - Forecast consistency statements; - Verification datasets.
Foreseen products:- Forecasts of subseasonal variability;- LRF downscaling products; etc.
Services provided by the RA VI RCC Network LRF Node
![Page 4: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
4
RA VI RCC Network LRF Node productsexamples for SON 2013
The LRF Node provides productsrelevant and/or tailored for the RA VI
![Page 5: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
5
RA VI RCC Network LRF Node productsother examples
The LRF Node provides productsrelevant and/or tailored for the RA VI
Regional dynamical downscaling using fully coupled atmosphere-ocean Regional Climate Model for South-Eastern regions
Adaptation of LRF to Scandinavian regions
NDJ 2010-2011 forecast for Temperature
![Page 6: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
6
The LRF Node also provides :• Outlooks for RA VI sub-regions• Active support for the Regional
Climate Outlook Forums in RA-VI (SEECOF, NEACOF) including new developments (MedCOF issues)
RA VI RCC Network LRF Node products
SEECOF 8 (Left) and NEACOF 4 (right) participants
![Page 7: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
7
A catalog of delivered products is available on the RA VI RCC network web site
RCC Network products and services are accessible online at www.rccra6.org and at the web-sites of the LRF Node members.
The products are also accessible via the metadata incorporated in the WMO Information System (WIS) and available online through established Global Information Services Centres (GISCs).
A user name and password may be required to access some products and services (see information on RA VI RCC Network web site). Users needing access to these products should contact their NMHS.
Accessing products and services of the RA VI RCC Network LRF Node
![Page 8: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Operations : LRF Node in Toulouse
METEO-FRANCE
![Page 9: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
9
GPC/LRF Node RCC Toulouse
Operationnal Forecasting Suite (System 4)Distributed Forecasting suite, coupled model (Arpège T127L31 ) for atmosphere and NEMO 1° grid for the ocean)
ECMWF atmospheric (and surface) analysis – Mercator oceanic analysis
Hindcast 1991-2010 – 15 members
Operations : 7 month range forecast - 51 members 10 atmospheric * 5 oceanic Initial Conditions (+ 1 member)
ProductsIssuance at the beginning of the current month commitment for the 8th at the latest
Dedicated Web site password protected – access granted on request under the WMO
umbrella
![Page 10: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
10
Dissemination
External : Password protected ftp site http://elaboration.seasonal.meteo.fr
(on request under the WMO umbrella),
ECMWF facilities (Euro-Sip MME, RCCs),
Availability dates : Begining of the month in Toulouse,
15th of the month at ECMWF (within the Euro-Sip MME),
GCB provided at the end of the month at the latest,
![Page 11: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
11
Extranet dedicated to Seasonal Forecasts6 Menus
Bulletins
Working Space
Login and password on request
![Page 12: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
12
Extranet : Forecast access
![Page 13: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
13
Extranet : Forecast access
12 parameters
4 Lead-Time
5 Probabilistic products (Terciles + Extreme cat.)
3 Deterministic products
Most likely category
![Page 14: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
14
Products : General Circulation Velocity Potential 200 & U 850
Skill (1987-2001)Velocity Potential at 200 hPa - Standardized Anomaly
U 850 hPa – Most Likely Category
![Page 15: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
15
climagrams
Additional Products
DJF 2010-2011 – Very Strong Niña
25 « land » boxes for T2m and RR
Same definition than ECMWF
Could be revisited
![Page 16: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
16
Additional Products : Circulation Regimes
Forecast Mode and use – Winter 2009 forecasts
Mean Anomalies
Min Temperatures / Extreme Rainfall Increased Occurrence of NAO – regimes
![Page 17: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
17
Products : Bulletins
Global Climate Bulletin n°173(issued end of October)
September 2013 observations
Soon
Global Climate Bulletin n°174(issued end of November)
October 2013 observations
![Page 18: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
18
Products : Bulletins
Global Climate Bulletin n°173(issued end of October)
September 2013 observationsNDJ 2013 forecasts
Expertised scenarios – sub-regional
MODELS
CEPno
privileged
above
normal
no
privileged
no
privileged
above
normal
MFno
privileged
no
privileged
above
normal
above
normal
above
normal
Met Officeno
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
above
normal
CPCno
privileged
above
normal
no
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
JMA
no
privileged
scenario
no
privileged
scenario
no
privileged
scenario
no
privileged
scenario
no
privileged
scenario
synthesisno
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
above
normal
LC-MMEabove
normal
above
normal
above
normal
above
normal
above
normal
Eurosipno
privileged
no
privileged
no
privileged
above
normal
above
normal
privileged scenario by
RCC-LRF node
no privileged scenario
no privileged scenario
no privileged scenario
above normal above normal
Northern Europe Southern Europe Central Europe Eastern Europe SEE Region
![Page 19: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
19
GPC/LRF Node RCC Toulouse
Additional contributionMEDCOF Promotion and participation to the dedicated scoping meeting (June
2013 – Madrid) Participation to the Interim Management Team Participation to the first MEDCOF (Belgrade – mid-November)
COFs participation
Guide on downscaling of Seasonal Forecasts for RCOFs Preliminary version based on the SWIOCOF experience
NewsModel change for operations in January 2013 (System 4)
Activation of the Wiki page on the dedicated Web site Password protected – access granted on request under the WMO
umbrella First try with DWD (on the Monitoring part) mid-october
![Page 20: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
RCC perspectives
METEO-FRANCE
![Page 21: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
21
RCC Perspectives
Monitoring and Forecast consistencySharing analysis and possible evolutions of the climate system (monitoring and forecasts)
General Circulation Indices
Extreme events
Sub-regional products
Predictability Diagnosis
Monitoring products
![Page 22: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
22
RCC Perspectives
Access to the draft of the bulletin allowing to share figures, comments, …
Wiki page automatically updated (for most of the figures)
Forecasting & Monitoring : sharing analysis of the climate system
![Page 23: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
23
Bulletins : (possible) Briefing Recording
Bulletin and others
![Page 24: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
24
RCC Perspectives
Monitoring and Forecast consistencySharing analysis of the climate system (monitoring and forecasts)
General Circulation Indices and Circulation Regimes
Extreme events
Sub-regional products
Predictability Diagnosis
Monitoring products
![Page 25: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
25
Circulation regimes perspectives
Better use of the distance :• Correlation• Bias• Amplitude
Common regional and sub-regional indices to look at both in Monitoring and Forecasting modes
![Page 26: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
26
General Circulation Indices
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Atm_Circulation/Monthly_Height.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Extratropics/table3.shtml
More information : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/telecontents.shtml
![Page 27: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
27
Relationship regimes / variability modes Decomposition in terms of variability modes for December and the
MF ensemble mean EOF analysis and varimax rotation (Linear method)
MODE 1 - MF
Explained Variance : 21,9 %
MODE 6 - MF
Explained Variance : 6,9 %
Correlation with NAO- : - 0,75
No correlation with NAO+ No correlation with NAO-
Correlation with NAO+ : - 0,85
Mode 1 is the morecorrelated to ENSO
Mode 1 is related to NAO- occurrences
the only regime not related to Mode 1is NAO+ (stronglyrelated to Mode 6)
![Page 28: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
28
Use of GC Indices
![Page 29: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
29
RCC Perspectives
Monitoring and Forecast consistencySharing analysis of the climate system (monitoring and forecasts)
General Circulation Indices
Extreme events
Sub-regional products
Predictability Diagnosis
Monitoring products
![Page 30: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
30
RCC Perspectives
Merging monitoring and forecasting information
• Better coordination
• Which forecast ?
• Which baseline ?
• Useful for CW ?
• …
Heat Waves in France
(1947-2012)
Extreme events
![Page 31: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
31
RCC Perspectives
Psi and Khi 200 Circulation Regimes in SON
Psi 200 Composite for years with a high number of HPE
ROC area for years with a high number of HPE
Extreme events
![Page 32: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
32
RCC Perspectives
Monitoring and Forecast consistencySharing analysis of the climate system (monitoring and forecasts)
General Circulation Indices
Extreme events
Sub-regional products
Predictability Diagnosis
Monitoring products
![Page 33: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
33
Sub Regional Products E-Obs dataset (or other) for monitoring and downscaling
Gridded dataset at the relevant mesh (0°5 ?) Design of relevant Sub-Regional Boxes Set up of corresponding studies (CG Indices, Circurlation Regimes, …)
RCC Perspectives
![Page 34: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
34
RCC Perspectives
Monitoring and Forecast consistencySharing analysis of the climate system (monitoring and forecasts)
General Circulation Indices
Extreme events
Sub-regional products
Predictability Diagnosis
Monitoring products
![Page 35: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
35
RCC Perspectives
February 2013 – NCEP analysis
AMJ 2013 forecasts
![Page 36: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
36
Seasonal Forecasts MF/ CEP (M+1) : Verification (Analyse) :
RCC Perspectives - DJF 2010-2011
Velocity Potential and Stream Function (High Troposphere)
![Page 37: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
37
RCC Perspectives
Monitoring and Forecast consistencySharing analysis of the climate system (monitoring and forecasts)
General Circulation Indices
Extreme events
Sub-regional products
Predictability Diagnosis
Monitoring products
![Page 38: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
38
RCC Perspectives
Revisit of Model anomaly products
• ECMWF Operationnal analysis and ERA-Interim climatology
• Which parameters ?
• Which baseline ?
• Which periods (month, season, …) ?
• …
Monitoring : using model anomalies
![Page 39: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
39
GPC evolutions
Coupled Model version 6 (System 5)Version close to the IPCC-AR5 version (consistency with Decadal Forecasts)
Atmosphere : Arpege version 6.i,
Ocean : NEMO (free elevation at the surface),
Mercator Ocean analysis and Reanalysis: 1979 – 2010,
Some options remain open,
Availability for operations : targetted for 2015 (developements in progress)
![Page 40: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
40
Scores System 5 (development in progress)
Hindcast over 1979 - 2011 (DJF and JJA) ,15 and 30 members Different options tested (DSM, Ajc, Ecume, Resolution, Time Step) Anomaly correlations for Z500,
![Page 41: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
41
Scores System 5 (development in progress)
Hindcast over 1979 - 2011 (DJF and JJA) ,15 and 30 members Different options tested Anomaly correlations for T2m
![Page 42: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
42
Scores System 5 (development in progress)
Hindcast over 1979 - 2011 (DJF and JJA) ,15 and 30 members Different options tested Anomaly correlation for Rainfall
![Page 43: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
43
GPC evolutions
Coupled Model version 6 (System 5)
Atmosphere : Arpege 6.i, T127 L91 (configuration close to N12),Ocean : NEMO (1° resolution, free elevation at the surface),
Stochastic Dynamic, Stratosphere
Sea-Ice : Gelato model,
Surface : Surfex model,
Some options remain open,
Development of the post-processing at the full resolution
![Page 44: RA VI RCC Network J.P. Céron - Climatology Department Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr LRF Node MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade 14-19 November 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e4b5503460f94b3fa52/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
MEDCOF-1 - Belgrade14-19 November 2013
44
How to improve RCC products and services ?
Large Scale information to work onMME issues
Circulation regimes vs Variability modes
Climate trend and Seasonal forecast
Intraseasonal information (including MJO, monthly desegregation of LRF, … )
Other parameters to be investigated (extreme events, Psi and Khi parameters, … )
Prediction of the predictability
RCC action plan to developIdentified actions (People in charge, Milestone, Follow-up…),
General strategy (especially with respect of UE and European institutional users)
Language barrier to address (see recent NEACOF)