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July 6th, 2017
Quarterly Report for the Greek Economy
2-2017
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2017:Economic Recovery
• GDP growth around 1.5%
• Second assessment
• Third assessment and so forth…
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Challenges and Opportunities
• Trade Balance
Imports trend
Exports dynamics
• Budget Balance
Expenditure
Taxation
• Return to international markets
Programme
Conditions
![Page 4: Quarterly Report for the Greek Economy 2-2017iobe.gr/docs/economy/en/ECO_Q2_06072017_PRE_EN.pdf · •Stabilization of global growth at 3.0% in 2016. Acceleration of growth in 2017](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022071000/5fbc6bcaa01e076ac26783be/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Quarterly Report Overview
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International environment: Positive prospects at the beginning of 2017
• Stabilization of global growth at 3.0% in 2016.
Acceleration of growth in 2017 (3.4%) and in 2018 (3.6%)
• Expansion of international trade in 2016 (+2.0%), although it ιs lower
compared to 2015 (+2.8%)
• Significant acceleration of growth rate of international trade, around 3.4%,is expected in 2017, mainly through boost from the developed anddeveloping economies (3.8% in 2018)
• Acceleration of growth in EU and Eurozone in 2017 and in 2018
Growth rates at ΕU & Eurozone: 1.9% and 1.7% in 2017
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International environment: Domestic factors are the driving force in Eurozone since 2014
• Acceleration of economic activity in the second half of 2016, both globally and in
Eurozone.
• Further acceleration in the first quarter of 2017.
Source: Eurostat, Processing Data: ΙΟΒΕ
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
20
10
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
15
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q4
20
17
Q1
GPD and its components in Eurozone
Domestic Demand (Consumption & Investments) Net Exports (Exports- Imports) GPD
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International Environment: Existence of uncertainty factors
• Still expected the announced financial expansion in US, risking positive expectations of
consumers and businesses not being verified.
• Asymmetries in the conduct of monetary policy (quantitative easing in Europe and
Japan, restrictive monetary policy in USA), will probably cause significant changes in capital
movement/exchange rates.
• Total NPLs management in European Banks (impact on investment).
• Protectionism trends from new US government affects the prospects of international trade
(although not yet implemented).
• Increased geopolitical risks (Middle East, East Asia due to North Korea).
• China’s transition towards a new economic development model, correcting accumulated
imbalances and creating frictions in the global economy.
But also:
• Mitigating uncertainties in Eurozone from elections (Holland, France).
• Growth continuation of developing economies due to high commodity prices (Brazil,
Russia).
• Small – thus far – the impact of BREXIT in the Eurozone.
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GPD growth during Q1/2017
Q1/2017: +0.4%, compared to -1.0% in Q4/2016 and -0.8% in
Q1/2016
Crucial Changes in Q1/2017:
• Growth of household consumption: (+1.7%, against -0.7% in Q1/2016)
• Increase of investment cost (+13.6% after +15.2% inQ1/2016)
Mainly due to higher fixed capital formation (+11.2% against -10.1%)
• High demand for imports (+10.9% after -10.1%)
Relaxation of capital controls
Exceeded the increase of exports (+4.8%) Deterioration of the externalsector balance for the first time since 2014: deficit of €2.2 billion
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Government Budget 2017 January – May (cash basis)
• Improvement compared to last year, exceeded revisedtargets (Medium-term Fiscal Strategy 2018-2021)
• Primary surplus of €1.84 billion, from €1.45 billion last yearand against target of €1.05 billion
• Improvement mainly due to expenditure containment:
€584 million less expenses of Regular Budget
€360 million less funding from Public Investment Programme
• Less revenue, solely from lower inflows from EU for the Public
Investment Programme (-€1.18 billion)
Increase of Regular Budget’s net revenue from privatizations and transaction tax
collection (not from direct taxes)
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Continuation of increase of industrial production
• Q1/2017: Increase of 7.2% against +0.2% during Q1/2016
Increase in all industrial sectors
• Mining: +12.7% against -17.0%
• Manufacturing: +4.4% against +2.8%
• Electricity: +18.4% against -4.2%
Sources: ELSTAT, Eurostat
Industrial Production Index
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Q1
/20
05
Q2
/20
05
Q3
/20
05
Q4
/20
05
Q1
/20
06
Q2
/20
06
Q3
/20
06
Q4
/20
06
Q1
/20
07
Q2
/20
07
Q3
/20
07
Q4
/20
07
Q1
/20
08
Q2
/20
08
Q3
/20
08
Q4
/20
08
Q1
/20
09
Q2
/20
09
Q3
/20
09
Q4
/20
09
Q1
/20
10
Q2
/20
10
Q3
/20
10
Q4
/20
10
Q1
/20
11
Q2
/20
11
Q3
/20
11
Q4
/20
11
Q1
/20
12
Q2
/20
12
Q3
/20
12
Q4
/20
12
Q1
/20
13
Q2
/20
13
Q3
/20
13
Q4
/20
13
Q1
/20
14
Q2
/20
14
Q3
/20
14
Q4
/20
14
Q1
/20
15
Q2
/20
15
Q3
/20
15
Q4
/20
15
Q1
/20
16
Q2
/20
16
Q3
/20
16
Q4
/20
16
Q1
/20
17
Ap
ril 2
01
7
Eurozone-19 Greece
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Construction: Important increase in Q1/2017
Construction Production Index and Building Activity Indicator(quarter y-o-y changes)
Q1/2017: +8.6%
Q1/2017: -8.1%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Q1
/20
06
Q2
/20
06
Q3
/20
06
Q4
/20
06
Q1
/20
07
Q2
/20
07
Q3
/20
07
Q4
/20
07
Q1
/20
08
Q2
/20
08
Q3
/20
08
Q4
/20
08
Q1
/20
09
Q2
/20
09
Q3
/20
09
Q4
/20
09
Q1
/20
10
Q2
/20
10
Q3
/20
10
Q4
/20
10
Q1
/20
11
Q2
/20
11
Q3
/20
11
Q4
/20
11
Q1
/20
12
Q2
/20
12
Q3
/20
12
Q4
/20
12
Q1
/20
13
Q2
/20
13
Q3
/20
13
Q4
/20
13
Q1
/20
14
Q2
/20
14
Q3
/20
14
Q4
/20
14
Q1
/20
15
Q2
/20
15
Q3
/20
15
Q4
/20
15
Q1
/20
16
Q2
/20
16
Q3
/20
16
Q4
/20
16
Q1
/20
17
Q2
/20
17
Greek Employment Level (left) Greek Production index (right) Eurozone -19 Production index (right)
Sources: ELSTAT, Eurostat
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Slight improvement in Retail Trade
Volume Index in Retail Trade (2010=100) and Business Climate Index in Retail Trade (1996-2006=100)
Sources: IOBE, ELSTAT
January-April 2017: +2.8% against -2.9% last year, even with important loss in Food-
Drink sector (-4.6% against +2.4%) and in Department Stores (-2.1% against +12.0%)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Q1
/20
05
Q2
/20
05
Q3
/20
05
Q4
/20
05
Q1
/20
06
Q2
/20
06
Q3
/20
06
Q4
/20
06
Q1
/20
07
Q2
/20
07
Q3
/20
07
Q4
/20
07
Q1
/20
08
Q2
/20
08
Q3
/20
08
Q4
/20
08
Q1
/20
09
Q2
/20
09
Q3
/20
09
Q4
/20
09
Q1
/20
10
Q2
/20
10
Q3
/20
10
Q4
/20
10
Q1
/20
11
Q2
/20
11
Q3
/20
11
Q4
/20
11
Q1
/20
12
Q2
/20
12
Q3
/20
12
Q4
/20
12
Q1
/20
13
Q2
/20
13
Q3
/20
13
Q4
/20
13
Q1
/20
14
Q2
/20
14
Q3
/20
14
Q4
/20
14
Q1
/20
15
Q2
/20
15
Q3
/20
15
Q4
/20
15
Q1
/20
16
Q2
/20
16
Q3
/20
16
Q4
/20
16
Q1
/20
17
Ap
ril 2
01
7
Volume of Retail Trade index (left) Entrepreneurial Expectations Index (right)
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Slight fluctuation of Economic Sentiment Indicator in 2017, higher compered to last year. In EU and Eurozone the Economic Sentiment Indicator has an upward trend
Sources: ΙΟΒΕ, European Commission
Economic Sentiment Indicator
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jun
. 20
06
De
c. 2
00
6
Jun
. 20
07
De
c. 2
00
7
Jun
. 20
08
De
c. 2
00
8
Jun
. 20
09
De
c. 2
00
9
Jun
. 20
10
De
c. 2
01
0
Jun
. 20
11
De
c. 2
01
1
Jun
. 20
12
De
c. 2
01
2
Jun
. 20
13
De
c. 2
01
3
Jun
. 20
14
De
c. 2
01
4
Jun
. 20
15
De
c. 2
01
5
Jun
. 20
16
De
c. 2
01
6
Jun
. 20
17
Economic Sentiment EU Economic Sentiment Eurozone Economic Sentiment Greece Greece's Average (2001-2016)
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Significant improvement in entrepreneurial expectations, during Q2/2017, in Services, but relative deterioration in Construction, Retail Trade and Manufacturing
Source: ΙΟΒΕ
ConstructionManufacturing
Retail Trade Services
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jun
. 20
06
De
c. 2
00
6Ju
n. 2
00
7D
ec.
20
07
Jun
. 20
08
De
c. 2
00
8Ju
n. 2
00
9D
ec.
20
09
Jun
. 20
10
De
c. 2
01
0Ju
n. 2
01
1D
ec.
20
11
Jun
. 20
12
De
c. 2
01
2Ju
n. 2
01
3D
ec.
20
13
Jun
. 20
14
De
c. 2
01
4Ju
n. 2
01
5D
ec.
20
15
Jun
. 20
16
De
c. 2
01
6Ju
n. 2
01
7
Industry - Greece
Greece's Average (2001-2016)
Industry - Eurozone (right)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jun
. 20
06
De
c. 2
00
6Ju
n. 2
00
7D
ec.
20
07
Jun
. 20
08
De
c. 2
00
8Ju
n. 2
00
9D
ec.
20
09
Jun
. 20
10
De
c. 2
01
0Ju
n. 2
01
1D
ec.
20
11
Jun
. 20
12
De
c. 2
01
2Ju
n. 2
01
3D
ec.
20
13
Jun
. 20
14
De
c. 2
01
4Ju
n. 2
01
5D
ec.
20
15
Jun
. 20
16
De
c. 2
01
6Ju
n. 2
01
7
Construction - Greece
Greece's Average (2001-2016)
Construction- Eurozone (right)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jun
. 20
06
De
c. 2
00
6Ju
n. 2
00
7D
ec.
20
07
Jun
. 20
08
De
c. 2
00
8Ju
n. 2
00
9D
ec.
20
09
Jun
. 20
10
De
c. 2
01
0Ju
n. 2
01
1D
ec.
20
11
Jun
. 20
12
De
c. 2
01
2Ju
n. 2
01
3D
ec.
20
13
Jun
. 20
14
De
c. 2
01
4Ju
n. 2
01
5D
ec.
20
15
Jun
. 20
16
De
c. 2
01
6Ju
n. 2
01
7
Services - Greece
Greece's Average (2002-2016)
Services- Eurozone (right)
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jun
. 20
06
De
c. 2
00
6Ju
n. 2
00
7D
ec.
20
07
Jun
. 20
08
De
c. 2
00
8Ju
n. 2
00
9D
ec.
20
09
Jun
. 20
10
De
c. 2
01
0Ju
n. 2
01
1D
ec.
20
11
Jun
. 20
12
De
c. 2
01
2Ju
n. 2
01
3D
ec.
20
13
Jun
. 20
14
De
c. 2
01
4Ju
n. 2
01
5D
ec.
20
15
Jun
. 20
16
De
c. 2
01
6Ju
n. 2
01
7
Retail Trade- GreeceGreece's Average (2001-2016)Retail Trade - Eurozone (right)
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Recovery of consumer confidence in Q2/2017, from very low levels one year ago
Sources: ΙΟΒΕ, European Commission
Consumer Confidence
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Jun
-06
Dec
-06
Jun
-07
Dec
-07
Jun
-08
Dec
-08
Jun
-09
Dec
-09
Jun
-10
Dec
-10
Jun
-11
Dec
-11
Jun
-12
Dec
-12
Jun
-13
Dec
-13
Jun
-14
Dec
-14
Jun
-15
Dec
-15
Jun
-16
Dec
-16
Jun
-17
Consumer Confidence in EU Consumer Confidence in EA
Consumer Confidence in Greece Consumer Confidence (2001-2016)
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Unemployment continues to decline in Q1/2017
Number of unemployed in Greece Q1/1998-Q1/2017
Unemployment rate at 23.3% in Q1/2017 against 24.9% in Q1/2016 and 23.6% in Q4/2016 Increase of employment in 15 sectors: E.g. Information-Communication (+8.4%), Managerial-Supportive
activities (+8.4%), Human Health activities-Social care (+3.8%), Manufacturing (+3.2%), Public administration-National defense (+3.0%), Construction (+1.4%), Wholesale-Retail trade (+0.9%), Tourism (+0.2%).
Decrease in employment in 6 sectors: E.g. Real Estate (-32.8%), Professional-Scientific-Technical activities (-5.4%).
Source: ELSTAT
532.1 558.9 565.0 532.3 537.1501.2
558.2517.4 488.5 459.1
418.6476.7
600.2
799.6
1,119.1
1,336.0 1,342.31,272.5
1,195.11,114.7
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1Q
/19
98
1Q
/19
99
1Q
/20
00
1Q
/20
01
1Q
/20
02
1Q
/20
03
1Q
/20
04
1Q
/20
05
1Q
/20
06
1Q
/20
07
1Q
/20
08
1Q
/20
09
1Q
/20
10
1Q
/20
11
1Q
/20
12
1Q
/20
13
1Q
/20
14
1Q
/20
15
1Q
/20
16
1Q
/20
17
Tho
usa
nd
s
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Wage cost increase in Q1/2017
Wage cost indicator of total economy (seasonally adjusted)
In Q1/2017, wage cost index of total economy increased by 1% compared toQ1/2016
Source: ELSTAT
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
07
/Q1
20
07
/Q2
20
07
/Q3
20
07
/Q4
20
08
/Q1
20
08
/Q2
20
08
/Q3
20
08
/Q4
20
09
/Q1
20
09
/Q2
20
09
/Q3
20
09
/Q4
20
10
/Q1
20
10
/Q2
20
10
/Q3
20
10
/Q4
20
11
/Q1
20
11
/Q2
20
11
/Q3
20
11
/Q4
20
12
/Q1
20
12
/Q2
20
12
/Q3
20
12
/Q4
20
13
/Q1
20
13
/Q2
20
13
/Q3
20
13
/Q4
20
14
/Q1
20
14
/Q2
20
14
/Q3
20
14
/Q4
20
15
/Q1
20
15
/Q2
20
15
/Q3
20
15
/Q4
20
16
/Q1
20
16
/Q2
20
16
/Q3
20
16
/Q4
20
17
/Q1
Index (left) Percentage change (right)
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Small Current Account Balance deficit of €3 billion in the first four months of 2017
Current Account Balance, January-April 2002-2017
Source: Bank of Greece
Surplus increase in Service Balances, Primary and Secondary incomes, buttrade deficit swelling
-4.7
-5.7-6.0
-7.5
-10.1
-14.2-13.6
-10.5
-13.2
-8.8
-6.4
-5.0
-3.3
-4.2
-3.2 -3.0
-16.0
-14.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bill
ion
s€
![Page 19: Quarterly Report for the Greek Economy 2-2017iobe.gr/docs/economy/en/ECO_Q2_06072017_PRE_EN.pdf · •Stabilization of global growth at 3.0% in 2016. Acceleration of growth in 2017](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022071000/5fbc6bcaa01e076ac26783be/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Increase by 27.3% of trade balance deficit in first forth months of 2017
January-April 2017:
• Exports: +17.5% (€9 billion, including fuel)
+3.1% (€6.2 billion excluding fuel and shipping)
• Imports: +21.9% (€17.1 billion)
• Trade deficit: +27.3%
• Decline: Agricultural products (-4.6%), Other non categorized (-5.6%)
• Increase: Fuels (67.1%), Raw materials (34.6%), Industrial products (4.1%)
Markets:
• Losses: Netherlands (4.4%), Spain (3.1%),Portugal (6.4%), Finland (31.3%), Sweden (4.2),Canada (2.9%), Brazil (51.4%)
• Increase: Eurozone (7.6%), EE-28 (7.3%), France(13.6%), Germany (5%), United Kingdom (5.4%),Cyprus (9.4%), Turkey (21%), Denmark (74.2%),Bulgaria (9.4%), Russia (9.2%), USA. (3.3%), Israel(89.1%), China (44%)
Source: ELSTAT
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
mill
ion
€
Value of Greek imports and exports in the first four months of period 2008-2017
Deficit Imports Exports
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• Consumer Price Index January-May2017: +1.4%, against deflation 1% in2016.
• Increase of prices in all countries ofEurozone, due to fuel price.
• Domestically, additional inflationarypressure due to increase in exciseduty on fuel, natural gas and tobaccoproducts, new fee for telephony andtax in coffee imports.
Inflation after 4 years of deflation
• Producer Price Index January-May 2017: Intense increase of 9.1%, against -9.8% last
year Fluctuations, again due to fuel.
• Energy commodities (except electricity), natural gas (+43%) and Mines-Quarries-
Manufacturing (+11%) show important change compared to the same period last year.
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
May
20
12
Au
g. 2
01
2
No
v. 2
01
2
Feb
. 20
13
May
20
13
Au
g. 2
01
3
No
v. 2
01
3
Feb
. 20
14
May
20
14
Au
g. 2
01
4
No
v. 2
01
4
Feb
. 20
15
May
20
15
Au
g. 2
01
5
No
v. 2
01
5
Feb
. 20
16
May
20
16
Au
g. 2
01
6
No
v. 2
01
6
Feb
. 20
17
May
20
17
Harmonized Inflation
Eurozone-19 GreeceSource: Eurostat
![Page 21: Quarterly Report for the Greek Economy 2-2017iobe.gr/docs/economy/en/ECO_Q2_06072017_PRE_EN.pdf · •Stabilization of global growth at 3.0% in 2016. Acceleration of growth in 2017](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022071000/5fbc6bcaa01e076ac26783be/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Effects of completion of second assessment
Retreat of uncertainty for achieving an agreement:
• Stimulation of investment climate, due to new reforms (investment license facilitation, new spatialplanning, changes in labor relations) Enhancement of employment
• Decrease in the decline of household deposits and gradual reversal of trend, facilitating firmsseeking to get access to liquidity from capital markets
Measures for public debt:
• Not further specification of medium term actions of May 2016
• Possibility to redefine loan repayment terms without Debt Sustainability Analysis Probably inthe coming period
• Commitment for primary surplus for the period 2023-2060 facilitation of debt sustainabilityanalysis
• Examination by IMF Board of Greece’s application for a 14-month funding
Greece will probably enter in the Q-E programme, if the EFSF loan is restructured and if the IMF will provide funding to Greece
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Effects of completion of second assessment
Waiting for developments in the banking system
• Results from the new management of non-performing
loans
• Possible inclusion in the Q-E programme Likely to
be exploited in the view of the ECB stress tests in
January 2018
• Slight increase in deposits in the second semester of
2017 (from 2001 levels)
• Most likely a smallercredit shrink, evenwith Q-E
• Slight increase inbusiness loans in thesecond semester of2017
Unchanged fiscal measures for 2017• Most of new measures taken during the second assessment, are for period 2019-
2020
Measures for investment-growth, with medium-term impact• Additional EU resources, and from redistribution of ESPA programme 2014-2020,
funding opportunities from international investment banks, efforts to create a National
Development Bank
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Mid-term developments
Pressure from first assessment measures-attenuation in the second
semester.
• Negative effects for households, mainly from tax-free income reduction, pension cuts
• Pressures on freelancers-farmers-wage earners from change in tax scale and in
insurance contributions
• Weakening of impacts of last year’s measures in the second half (base results)
Subdued public sector contribution to liquidity-investments
• Under-implementation of Public Investment Program, due to the low absorption of EU
resources
• Escalation of concession-privatization activities in the Q2/2017 (extension of Athens
International Airport contract, proclamation of Piraeus Port Authority bidder)
But also time consuming procedures for completion of contracts/licensing of investments
• Following a significant repayment of arrears last year, new increase this year, with
additional arrears of around €700 million
However, continuation of public contribution to employment, mainly through OAED’s public
work programmes
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Mid-term developments
Effects from external environment
• Continuous oil price decline since April Prices have reached last year’slevels ($45-47)
• Slight increase in €/$ exchange rate after election results in Eurozone anddeclining expectations for fiscal expansion in the US
• Tension in Turkey and in the Middle East favoring the tourism sector
International uncertainty factors
• Outcome of conflicts in the Middle East
• New government policy in the US (fiscal-commercial)
• BREXIT
• Strengthening of national protectionism
![Page 25: Quarterly Report for the Greek Economy 2-2017iobe.gr/docs/economy/en/ECO_Q2_06072017_PRE_EN.pdf · •Stabilization of global growth at 3.0% in 2016. Acceleration of growth in 2017](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022071000/5fbc6bcaa01e076ac26783be/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Forecasts 2017
• Increase of private consumption (≈ 1.4%) mainly due to increase in employment
Halting of increase from fiscal measures of first assessment, milder in the second half
Technical enhancement from expansion of electronic transactions
• Increase in public consumption (≈ 1.0%)
Slight increase in government expenditure in the first quarter
Facilitating consumers spending from disbursing loan installment
• Investment expansion (≈ 13-15%) from:
New activity growth in tradeable sectors (manufacturing, tourism) and continuous
enhancement of construction activity (public and construction projects)
Liquidity for large firms through capital markets
Positive technical effects from inventories
• But also:
Liquidity from banks (low level of deposits-upcoming stress tests)
The high volatility of the tax-insurance system is dissuasive
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GPD growth around 1.5%
External sector
• Exports increase (5.5%), mainly of services, due to:
significant increase in international demand for transportation services
not high energy cost
mild increase in export of goods, other than oil products and tourist receipts
• Higher increase of imports (8.5%) due to:
increase in domestic demand, capital controls easing in June 2016
weakening of relaxation effect (on an annual basis) after one year
Forecast for growth rate of 1.5% in 2017 or slightly
less
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Forecasts 2017: Decrease of unemployment, increase of prices
New decrease of unemployment in 2017, at a smaller rate
• Enhancement of employment in tradeable sectors (manufacturing, tourism)
• Completion of assessment and reforms in labor market enhance investment and
employment
• Re-contribution of the public sector, mainly through temporary employment with
OAED’s public work programs, but also through recruitment (e.g. Health Services)
• Pressure of new measures from 01/01/2017 (direct-indirect taxation) in
employment in professional services and in retail trade
Drop of unemployment about 1%: to 22.2%
Inflation 1.5%
• Due to increase of indirect taxes and imposition of new taxes, but also due to
higher oil price
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IOBE study:
Effects of reforms in tradeable sectors
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Purpose of study
The purpose of this study is to examine the effects in technicalefficiency of tradeable sectors from:
Sectors studied:
Production and distribution of electric energy, Road freight transport, Passengers transport, Cruises-Yachts, Gaming-Casino
Reforms in specific sectors
«Horizontal» reforms that concern total economy (e.g. labor
market, establishment of new firms)
Firm characteristics
(e.g. age, location)
Macroeconomic conditions (e.g. GPD growth, credit
expansion/shrinking)
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Study Results
Effects of sectoral reforms
• Positive effects in two sectors (Road freight transport, Passengers transport), slightly negative effect inProduction and distribution of electric energy, no effect in other sectors.
Effects of “horizontal” reforms
• Enhancement of efficiency from reforms in labor market in three sectors (Production and distributionof electric energy, Road freight transport, Passengers transport).
• Facilitation of business establishment favored only Road freight transport sector and reducedefficiency in Passengers transport sector.
Effects of firm characteristics
• Positive effect of age in the efficiency levels of all sectors, except Cruises-Yachts sector.
• Significant effect of location (in Athens or Thessaloniki regions) in all sectors, but positive effect only inPassenger transport sector and in Cruises-Yachts sector.
Effects of microeconomic environment
• Significant effect of recession in all sectors, except Production and distribution of electric energysector
• Credit expansion increases efficiency in Production and distribution of electric energy, Road freighttransport and Cruises-Yachts sectors.
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